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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Coming

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#51
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:25 PM

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So if El Nino # 2 is in the future than SoCal could get rain this summer like 2015!

 

I think that is a possibility. I certainly think something just has to give eventually to bring us a chance of rain at some point in the future. I find it impossible that this ridiculously resilient dry pattern can go on forever.

 

Hopefully this SSW event provides the shake up in the pattern that is so desperately needed. This dry pattern that has been consistently (too much in my opinion) setting all sorts of records for warmth mostly in CA really did begin in earnest during the 2012-13 season when the last SSW occurred, although 2011-12 was drier than average as well.


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#52
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:27 PM

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Posted in the other thread, but omg y’all. This follow-up shot is still kinda clown range but it fits the periodicity.

That little swirl over North America is what’s left of the PV.

sO8T0ks.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#53
Black Hole

Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:51 AM

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The event is underway in earnest with big time warming going on. There is also an official split in the PV with the dominant vortex over Canada now at 10 hPa and lowering.  


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Total: 26.1"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#54
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

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u_65N_10hpa.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#55
Black Hole

Posted 13 February 2018 - 05:33 PM

Black Hole

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u_65N_10hpa.png

Perhaps minimizing at 3 sigma below normal or more. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Total: 26.1"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#56
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 06:53 PM

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Perhaps minimizing at 3 sigma below normal or more.


It’s pretty astounding to see a wind reversal last 2+ weeks up @ 10mb. As modeled, it will be record breaking in terms of duration, and perhaps intensity as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph