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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Coming

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#51
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:25 PM

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So if El Nino # 2 is in the future than SoCal could get rain this summer like 2015!

 

I think that is a possibility. I certainly think something just has to give eventually to bring us a chance of rain at some point in the future. I find it impossible that this ridiculously resilient dry pattern can go on forever.

 

Hopefully this SSW event provides the shake up in the pattern that is so desperately needed. This dry pattern that has been consistently (too much in my opinion) setting all sorts of records for warmth mostly in CA really did begin in earnest during the 2012-13 season when the last SSW occurred, although 2011-12 was drier than average as well.


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#52
Phil

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:27 PM

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Posted in the other thread, but omg y’all. This follow-up shot is still kinda clown range but it fits the periodicity.

That little swirl over North America is what’s left of the PV.

sO8T0ks.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#53
Black Hole

Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:51 AM

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The event is underway in earnest with big time warming going on. There is also an official split in the PV with the dominant vortex over Canada now at 10 hPa and lowering.  


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#54
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

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u_65N_10hpa.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#55
Black Hole

Posted 13 February 2018 - 05:33 PM

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u_65N_10hpa.png

Perhaps minimizing at 3 sigma below normal or more. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#56
Phil

Posted 13 February 2018 - 06:53 PM

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Perhaps minimizing at 3 sigma below normal or more.


It’s pretty astounding to see a wind reversal last 2+ weeks up @ 10mb. As modeled, it will be record breaking in terms of duration, and perhaps intensity as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#57
Black Hole

Posted 17 February 2018 - 05:41 PM

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4 sigma deviations according to Michael Ventrice at 10 mb. 

Attached File  DWPc87xUMAAOk4H.jpg   153.87KB   0 downloads


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#58
Phil

Posted 22 February 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Well..this event definitely shook things up! I’m seeing a number of low-cusp frequency changes taking place.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#59
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 22 February 2018 - 10:19 PM

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Well..this event definitely shook things up! I’m seeing a number of low-cusp frequency changes taking place.

 

Are any of these changes going to help California in terms of rainfall and snowfall before this season is over? It has been colder in CA this week, but precip has been very light and rather spotty as there has been a lack of moisture given the inland track of recent storms.



#60
Black Hole

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Are any of these changes going to help California in terms of rainfall and snowfall before this season is over? It has been colder in CA this week, but precip has been very light and rather spotty as there has been a lack of moisture given the inland track of recent storms.

The trough position will shift far enough west this week (and less progressive) so that you should get a couple of systems to produce decent rain even in southern Cal. 


  • Phil and Dan the Weatherman like this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#61
Black Hole

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:28 AM

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The SSW definitely gave the system a kick. The massive west coast ridge is no more. 


  • Phil and Dan the Weatherman like this

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#62
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 25 February 2018 - 01:36 AM

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The SSW definitely gave the system a kick. The massive west coast ridge is no more. 

 

Maybe the west in general will have a more active late winter and spring period overall, compared with what we have experienced so far this winter. It is definitely looking better for rainfall in Socal this upcoming week, since the ridge has finally been displaced enough.