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February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

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#451
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:43 PM

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We should be able to limp our way to double digits for the season tomorrow.


No kidding. We're BSing our way to a February that isn't half bad.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#452
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:30 AM

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Sure was!--What a winter it has been---where is Tom ? where are the Chicago guys?

I'm here buddy.  Yesterday, was a crazy busy day and I got home late.  My parents are in town so I was with them and enjoying the snowfall.  ORD picked up 2.2" officially.  Southern burbs got hit again and the general 3-5" pretty much was spot on to LOT's updated snowfall forecast.  We were forecast to be in the 2-4" range anyway.

 

 

DVWTzOnW4AAIxmD.jpg

 

 

 

Downstate and W IL got crushed with up to 9" or so...

 

 

 

feature02062018.jpg?quality=85&strip=all



#453
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:29 AM

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GRR's bumping of expected totals yesterday, even while radar/Obs were taking the heaviest on a ESE trajectory made little sense, and sure enough my 1.1" actual total was way less than they called for. Even towards the lakeshore here in St. Joseph it's only a 2-3" deal. Nice to have snow-on-snow tho. There were some bad Semi slide-offs on the x-way in Van Buren cnty on a stretch that hadn't got quite enough salt/sand mixture. Recovery crews hadn't reached either truck yet. So glad I wasn't stuck in a parking lot while they worked to pull those beasts out. One was really jack-knifed in there good


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#454
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:32 AM

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GRR's bumping of expected totals yesterday, even while radar/Obs were taking the heaviest on a ESE trajectory made little sense, and sure enough my 1.1" actual total was way less than they called for. Even towards the lakeshore here in St. Joseph it's only a 2-3" deal. Nice to have snow-on-snow tho. There were some bad Semi slide-offs on the x-way in Van Buren cnty on a stretch that hadn't got quite enough salt/sand mixture. Recovery crews hadn't reached either truck yet. So glad I wasn't stuck in a parking lot while they worked to pull those beasts out. One was really jack-knifed in there good

This, is what I've been waiting for all season long, and the first full week of February looks to deliver the goods.  Giddy up pardner!


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#455
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:38 AM

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Picked up a refreshing 1.8" from this quick hitter. Not bad. Man, this thing was in and out.



#456
Stacsh

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:03 AM

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Picked up a refreshing 1.8" from this quick hitter. Not bad. Man, this thing was in and out.

 

Received just under 3" here with a touch of lake enhancement.  


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#457
BrianJK

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:29 AM

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Exactly what went through my mind and I've come to a mixed consensus...  I believe it will snow, I do not believe the totals.  I'm going with 2" for our area. 

 

 

Still sticking with 2 here. Let’s see what happens.

 

 

I'm here buddy.  Yesterday, was a crazy busy day and I got home late.  My parents are in town so I was with them and enjoying the snowfall.  ORD picked up 2.2" officially.  Southern burbs got hit again and the general 3-5" pretty much was spot on to LOT's updated snowfall forecast.  We were forecast to be in the 2-4" range anyway.

 

 

Actually thought I may bust high when I saw the pathetic rates yesterday

 

 

 

 



#458
gabel23

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:29 AM

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I received 2" from this wave. Just enough to cover up all the areas that have melted away from the blizzard last month. 



#459
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:59 AM

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Received just under 3" here with a touch of lake enhancement.  

That enhancement from the lake always seems to help. Keep those shovels/snowblower in handy...more still to come.


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#460
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Just finished shoveling my driveway/walkway from the extremely fluffy tail end of the system snow that fell after 8:00pm.  Picked up an additional 0.6" since then bringing my total to about the number given at ORD.  I forgot to measure but seems to be an accurately portrayal for the area.  My snow depth is right at 3.0" on my deck.  Crazy how much the fluff settles since we have had about 4.1" over the past couple systems.



#461
Tabitha

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:37 PM

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The ARW 2 hits this are very hard with some intense snow starting...well; in less than an hour...with 0.3 LE +

 

We'll see.

 

I measured 1/10th of an inch of snow.

 

Two miles to my north; three inches fell.  Two miles / 10,000 feet.  The band sat to my north for two hours without moving an inch.  Then; the moment it moved south; it feel apart.

 

Spearfish only saw 11 inches in a few hours.  Snow fans there lead a hard life.

 

Then, Monday evening, another 1/10th of an inch of snow fell.  That brought the seasonal total to 17.2".

 

After the 10 millionth consecutive disappointment; I took some time off.

 

The Thursday / Friday event will find a way to circumvent this area; as it always does.  The ICON, Euro, GFS show this. 

 

The NAM after 48 & CMC (lolz) look good.

 

Good model outcomes verify 5% of the time.  Bad model outcomes verify 110% of the time. 

 

The Rule of Thumb for forecasting snow here is called the 20% Rule. 

 

Whatever the worst model outcome shows; multiply that low total by one-fifth; and that should be your snowfall.

 

You can't fight climatology; or unfavorable trends/ patterns.  They are more difficult to break than the most profound curses.

 

It will not change here; and it never will.

 

Peace Out.



#462
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:48 PM

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I measured 1/10th of an inch of snow.

 

Two miles to my north; three inches fell.  Two miles / 10,000 feet.  The band sat to my north for two hours without moving an inch.  Then; the moment it moved south; it feel apart.

 

Spearfish only saw 11 inches in a few hours.  Snow fans there lead a hard life.

 

Then, Monday evening, another 1/10th of an inch of snow fell.  That brought the seasonal total to 17.2".

 

After the 10 millionth consecutive disappointment; I took some time off.

 

The Thursday / Friday event will find a way to circumvent this area; as it always does.  The ICON, Euro, GFS show this. 

 

The NAM after 48 & CMC (lolz) look good.

 

Good model outcomes verify 5% of the time.  Bad model outcomes verify 100% of the time. 

 

You can't fight climatology; or unfavorable trends/ patterns.  They are more difficult to break than the most profound curses.

 

It will not change here; and it never will.

 

Peace Out.

tenor.gif


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#463
Tabitha

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:54 PM

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Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay.  I'm sure the rest of the board will thank you for that.

 

Soo close were they to being rid of Tabitha; until your intercession!

 

Though I was never in the Girl Scouts; I knew someone who was. 

 

It took several months for her to be de-programmed. 

 

Despite the unbelievable misfortune here, I am still ahead of dear old Eppley.

 

And it is this that gives Me the courage to fight on.



#464
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:55 PM

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Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay.  I'm sure the rest of the board will thank you for that.

 

Though I was never in the Girl Scouts; I knew someone who was. 

 

It took several months for her to be de-programmed. 

 

Despite the unbelievable misfortune here, I am still ahead of dear old Eppley.

 

And it is this that gives Me the courage to fight on.

wow lol


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#465
Tabitha

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:04 PM

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Since you are in such hurry to see Me go; I think I will stay. 

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=a2YRMixW9u8



#466
Tabitha

Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:11 AM

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If I thought the drought was bad here; check out these numbers:

 

Jamestown, ND: 0.13" precip since Dec 1, 2017; 0.01" since Jan 1, 2018 (that's 1/100 of an inch)

 

Minot, ND: 0.12" precip since Dec 1; 2017

 

Hetinger, ND: 0.09" precip since Dec 1, 2017

 

Aberdeen, SD: 0.08" precip since Jan 1, 2018...6.0" of snow for the season

 

Pierre, SD: 5.0" of snow for the season



#467
jaster220

Posted 07 February 2018 - 06:35 AM

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If I thought the drought was bad here; check out these numbers:

 

Jamestown, ND: 0.13" precip since Dec 1, 2017; 0.01" since Jan 1, 2018 (that's 1/100 of an inch)

 

Minot, ND: 0.12" precip since Dec 1; 2017

 

Hetinger, ND: 0.09" precip since Dec 1, 2017

 

Aberdeen, SD: 0.08" precip since Jan 1, 2018...6.0" of snow for the season

 

Pierre, SD: 5.0" of snow for the season

 

They got all the action last season, which for that storm proof region was like 5 yrs worth, lol. Prolly have to go back to 96-97 to find another banner year for the Dakotas like what they got with all those blizzards last season.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#468
Tabitha

Posted 07 February 2018 - 08:19 AM

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They got all the action last season, which for that storm proof region was like 5 yrs worth, lol. Prolly have to go back to 96-97 to find another banner year for the Dakotas like what they got with all those blizzards last season.

 

The bad totals for Pierre & Watertown do not appear to be accidents but climatological realities; as both show an average annual snowfall of 31.3" (1981-2010); so a very low snow year should not be considered out of the ordinary.

 

Since I just moved here; I am still learning the climate of the area as I go.


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