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February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

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#51
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

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18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea.


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#52
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:16 PM

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From DVN

 

 

Tab4FileL.png?894a5f8e26ced0dff2360f6cfc



#53
Clinton

Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:00 PM

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Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png

 

Our snow drought has to end soon right?


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#54
Bryan1117

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:23 PM

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18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea.

Normally seeing this type of map showing yet another snow shaft for East Central Nebraska would make me pretty angry... however I have checked out of wanting to see snow here after our last system.

Enjoy this “token” snow, whoever gets it... this guy is ready for an early Spring (and I hope and believe the groundhog was full of s%^t earlier today).

Bring the state of Nebraska a February torch again, please Mother Nature! Cold and dry sounds utterly painful as we have seen way too much of that around here the last 3 years.
  • NEJeremy likes this

#55
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:25 PM

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18z GEFS...nudged a little more NW again...if 00z GFS maintains the trend, its something to pay attention to going forward.  Also, I'm seeing more juice ensemble members which may provide a clue towards a better organized southern stream system.


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#56
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:41 PM

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As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then us

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

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#57
Bryan1117

Posted 02 February 2018 - 05:10 PM

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As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then us

Maybe we should just call ourselves lucky... no thanks to more “token” snows. Also makes me feel better that I turned down an awesome deal on a snowblower last year, I figured I wouldn’t need it around here.

Let’s add another WAY below normal snowfall Winter season to the list and move on to Spring.

#58
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 05:18 PM

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Models should have better understanding by early next week. Overall, looks very, very interesting.



#59
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:41 PM

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Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

attachicon.gif20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png

Picture-perfect map!



#60
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:45 PM

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Out in 00z NAM lala land, a sweet high end advisory type event across parts of IA/N IL/N IN Mon/Mon pm...

 

 


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#61
james1976

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:56 PM

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Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice.

#62
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:01 PM

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Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice.


This is the 1st wave on Mon/Mon pm that drops a nice swath of snow. The secondary piece which develops later Tue into Wed may end up being the stronger system to watch. Let’s see what the 00z suite of runs show.
  • james1976 likes this

#63
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Could you post the map from 6 or 12 hours prior for those of us in the plains?


I would if I had those. That map was snagged elsewhere

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#64
Money

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:54 PM

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Gfs coming in south with the next two waves

#65
Hawkeye

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:00 PM

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GFS still looking solid for Iowa on Monday... a nice 0.3" qpf band from nw to ec IA.  DVN's disco this afternoon mentioned 15 or even 20+ to 1 ratio.


  • Tom likes this

season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#66
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

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The Monday event looks very similar to the December 29th system that dropped 6” IMBY.
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#67
GDR

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:06 PM

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Kc gets hit well

#68
Tony

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:07 PM

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GFS keeps shearing out this wave on pretty much every run but Euro and ensembles think otherwise. Lots of runs to look out before this wave gets figured out

#69
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:12 PM

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Canadian a bit further north with the first wave than the GFS and then way south with the second wave.

#70
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Noaa:

 

Attention in the extended period remains on the potential for more
significant snowfall on Wednesday. The aforementioned shortwave over
the western CONUS will dig through the central plains and eventually
track up the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, leading to a developing
surface low pressure system over the eastern CONUS. As with its
previous several runs, the ECMWF places this surface low over
eastern OH/western PA which keeps SE Michigan in a favorable
position for heavy snow on the NW side of the system. However, the
GFS and Canadian models remain adamant on the system tracking
farther east and thereby keeping our area out of the precipitation
altogether.
Chance PoPs remain in the forecast while variability in
model solutions remains so high. Expect a clearer picture to develop
as the upper wave is better sampled early next week
. Guidance does
agree that highs will remain slightly below average Wednesday.



#71
GDR

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:20 PM

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Icon is way south on the 2nd wave

#72
snowstorm83

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:23 PM

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Icon is way south on the 2nd wave

I guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash.



#73
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:28 PM

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ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday
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#74
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:36 PM

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00z GFS paints 4-6” across NE IL (5” at ORD) nice trend and certainly looking like Lehs is in the table. This would be a nice base to build off of to start a snowy trend.

#75
GDR

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Attached File  95335D57-BD3D-4169-AE6F-A9ED19ABEB48.png   544.25KB   0 downloads

#76
GDR

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:40 PM

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Can anyone spot the dome?
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#77
Hawkeye

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:41 PM

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ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday

 

00z runs for Cedar Rapids

 

GFS: 0.32"

GDPS: 0.32"

ICON: 0.37"

 

I'm getting a bit excited.  It's still 60 hours away, though... plenty of time to lift or sag a couple counties, or weaken.


  • NWLinnCountyIA likes this

season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#78
snowstorm83

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:41 PM

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Can anyone spot the dome?

Peyton Manning: Omaha! Omaha! Omaha!



#79
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:44 PM

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I guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash.

 

Never say that!  The ICON is an icon!


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#80
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:45 PM

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It's the ICON, but thats juicy. I like it. Especially sitting just north of the model mean. I think we're in a good spot for this one.

 

icon_asnow_ncus_32.png


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#81
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:46 PM

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Can anyone spot the dome?

 

Yes, Logan is running away from it...

 

Jessica is with him

 

Francis is in hot pursuit...



#82
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:49 PM

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Uk also solid hit along the i80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa.

#83
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:50 PM

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http://img.meteocent...PN_072_0000.gif

#84
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:08 PM

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Just cant get over how we have a hole of barely any snow over us with literally several inches in all directions. What the hell is this s**t...come on now!!!!

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#85
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:26 PM

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Models are trolling everyone in Nebraska. My god. This was never gonna be a big thing for here anyway but this can't be any more brutal to watch.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#86
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:42 PM

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Just cant get over how we have a hole of barely any snow over us with literally several inches in all directions. What the hell is this s**t...come on now!!!!

 

The Goddess owed me a favor...

 

Send me $20 and *maybe* we can get it changed at 6z....



#87
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:09 PM

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Euro "seems" to be lining up with Ukie at 72hr pressure wise (location) but I haven't seen precip maps yet.



#88
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:16 PM

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here are some #'s from the Euro-

 

IOW-

SUN 00Z 04-FEB   1.7    -3.0    1008      55      98    0.03     545     538    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB   0.5    -3.4    1009      73      72    0.00     541     534    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -7.2   -11.0    1017      62      83    0.01     538     525    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -8.0   -17.4    1025      42      68    0.00     533     514    
MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.5   -17.4    1028      27       8    0.00     536     515    
MON 06Z 05-FEB -13.3   -13.9    1030      35       3    0.00     541     518    
MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.7   -12.2    1027      38       2    0.00     546     525    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.2   -11.2    1025      41     100    0.04     547     528    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.0   -12.9    1023      82      99    0.25     545     527    
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -18.7   -11.4    1027      94      26    0.01     546     526


#89
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:17 PM

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CID-

SUN 00Z 04-FEB   1.5    -2.9    1007      59      97    0.03     544     538    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  -0.7    -4.0    1009      76      73    0.00     540     533    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -8.1   -12.2    1018      62      86    0.01     538     524    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -8.9   -17.9    1026      40      77    0.00     531     512    
MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.3   -17.6    1028      29       8    0.00     536     514    
MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.4   -14.0    1029      39       3    0.00     540     518    
MON 12Z 05-FEB -15.2   -12.5    1027      40       2    0.00     545     525    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.9   -11.4    1025      45     100    0.05     546     528    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.5   -13.7    1024      83      97    0.27     544     526    
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -19.1   -11.8    1027      95      19    0.01     545     525 

ALO-

SUN 00Z 04-FEB   1.1    -4.8    1007      59      98    0.01     542     536    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  -5.1    -7.2    1012      74      98    0.01     539     529    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB -10.4   -15.7    1021      59      96    0.01     535     519    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB -11.7   -19.1    1028      32      73    0.01     528     507    
MON 00Z 05-FEB -13.2   -18.1    1029      35       7    0.00     535     513    
MON 06Z 05-FEB -15.3   -14.8    1029      44       4    0.00     539     517    
MON 12Z 05-FEB -15.1   -13.4    1026      39       2    0.00     543     524    
MON 18Z 05-FEB -10.4   -12.4    1024      53     100    0.07     544     526    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -11.0   -15.2    1024      79      75    0.24     542     523


#90
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:18 PM

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DSM-

SUN 00Z 04-FEB   0.7    -1.2    1006      60      74    0.04     545     540    
SUN 06Z 04-FEB  -5.0    -3.9    1014      69      91    0.00     542     532    
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -9.3   -13.1    1022      56      97    0.01     540     523    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -9.6   -18.0    1029      32      51    0.01     534     512    
MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4   -17.1    1030      25       6    0.00     539     517    
MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.2   -13.8    1030      34       2    0.00     544     521    
MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.1   -10.8    1026      30      57    0.00     549     529    
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -8.6    -9.8    1023      45     100    0.07     548     531    
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.2   -13.7    1023      70      79    0.10     546     528


#91
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:22 PM

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The 2nd wave for Tuesday doesn't appear to be as robust as it was on the 12 Euro.



#92
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:25 PM

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Really? Cant get anymore comical then this

 

A3ZnBhQ.jpg


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#93
Hawkeye

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:29 PM

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Tonight's UK is the outlier, showing the best snow band across southern Iowa Monday.  All other models show nw through ec IA... qpf in the 0.30-0.35" range.

 

It appears much of our snow on Monday may fall during daylight, too, which is a big plus in my book.  Overnight snow just doesn't do much for me like it might have twenty years ago.  Now, I'd rather just sleep. :)


  • FV-Mike likes this

season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#94
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:42 PM

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Really? Cant get anymore comical then this

 

A3ZnBhQ.jpg

 

Looks sooo beautiful for the Black Hills!

 

If it comes true; I'll send some nice snow reports from out here over the next few days; pics too!

 

Thxns 4 posting!



#95
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:01 PM

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Comparisons from the 12Z Euro to 00Z Euro.  Overall snow amounts and coverage are greater in the 00Z. Not by much but just an expansion of the snow field itself would be enough for those on the edge like myself. Good trends.



#96
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:23 PM

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Looks sooo beautiful for the Black Hills!

 

If it comes true; I'll send some nice snow reports from out here over the next few days; pics too!

 

Thxns 4 posting!

I don't want any photos, you can keep them too yourself.  Photos will just make me even more mad. lol


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#97
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:29 PM

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Welp...it has came to this. 0z NAVY model looks wonderful here! lol


  • Tabitha likes this

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#98
Illinois_WX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:34 PM

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Looks sooo beautiful for the Black Hills!

If it comes true; I'll send some nice snow reports from out here over the next few days; pics too!

Thxns 4 posting!



Thanks Dennis Reynolds. So thoughtful of you <3

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#99
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:42 PM

Tabitha

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I don't want any photos, you can keep them too yourself.  Photos will just make me even more mad. lol

 

"too"

 

Lolzzzzzz.



#100
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:43 PM

Tabitha

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 So thoughtful of you <3

 

I'm *at least* a seven....