February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[Tom]

KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north.  Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week!

[indianajohn]

Skillings FB Page.....

A snowier pattern ahead? It continues to look that way over the coming week--but with some interesting twists on the way, including some possible patchy light rain Saturday afternoon and evening as the Chicago area break above freezing for a day Saturday. Highs may top out in the mid 30s. T

Any liquid-form precip would amount to quite a change from this morning's 5-degree lows at Midway and O'Hare--and the 0-deg min recorded at Rochelle and the 1-deg lows at McHenry, Mundelein and Barrington. Lows bottomed out at +2-deg at Elgin, DeKalb, Joliet, Willowbrook, Dwight and Batavia.

It's always interesting to see the graphics depicting one week cumulative snowfalls pop up on line when snowier patterns loom. Skill levels of such forecasts are low at longer ranges in time--even in this era of quite remarkable numerical modeling of our weather. They make facscinating viewing but should hardly be viewed as carved in stone. We're much better at identifying potential trends in snow frequency and occurrence--then identifying amounts as we move closer to the snow amounts in question.

We continue to monitor the following periods for potential snowfall in the coming week. None of these is yet carved in stone (though the late Saturday night and Sunday snow seems a reasonably good bet--what's a dicey call at this point are the amounts which might occur here)--and the level of uncertainty of precise snow tallies with the more distant systems is not yet clear. The periods being monitored are:

---Late Saturday night into Sunday

---Monday night

--Tuesday night into Wednesday (the track of the system will be critical in how much if any snow occurs in this instance)

--And toward Friday

Included are some graphics identifying trends and offering some insight into the range in model projections of possible accumulations on the Sunday system. When looking at a system like that one, which is still days away, the best approach is to look at the range in current machine accumulation projections. Specific numbers will become cleared as the system is closer to us. One trend that seems to be coming through on the various snowfall forecasts on this system is that amounts are likely to taper off the farther south you move from Chicago. Also true is that this system is hardly a major storm of the time we've been reflecting on looking back 7 years at the Ground Hog's Day storm in early February 2011.

[Grizzcoat]

Can you get OLU for me? Thanks. 

OLU-  then I'am off to bed. Working the "nightshift" with Lionel (Ritchie)

 

 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -10.5   -18.3    1035      35      64    0.02     542     516   

MON 00Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -14.9    1031      35       2    0.00     546     522   

MON 06Z 05-FEB -10.5    -9.5    1027      40      64    0.00     552     531   

MON 12Z 05-FEB  -8.1    -6.0    1018      42      67    0.00     552     538   

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -0.2    -3.2    1014      42      61    0.01     552     540   

TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -2.9    -7.7    1019      60      41    0.00     551     536   

TUE 06Z 06-FEB  -7.6    -8.0    1025      63      49    0.00     552     532   

TUE 12Z 06-FEB  -8.4   -12.1    1027      66      92    0.03     551     530   

TUE 18Z 06-FEB -10.6   -12.6    1030      70      99    0.15     549     526   

WED 00Z 07-FEB -10.3   -12.3    1030      70      98    0.02     547     524

[jaster220]

KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north.  Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week!

 

Hopefully getting extended a bit up my way. But, I get treated better than most with Sat/Sun so not gonna be greedy..Chitown needs this SOOOO bad! 

 

SMI close-up:

 

[jaster220]

I know, I know, It's the NavGem, but I like the moist look. still holds the SLP too long and thus it tracks quite far south..

 

[jaster220]

12z mean is north of operational again

 

Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting 

[Tony]

Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting 

There are some big dogs in that group that are eye popping for sure.

[jaster220]

Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

 

 

[Tom]

18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea.

[bud2380]

From DVN

 

 

[Clinton]

 

Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png

 

Our snow drought has to end soon right?

[Bryan1117]

18z GFS trending better overall, esp out near KC/N MO compared to previous runs...showing better potential and leaning towards the Euro idea.

Normally seeing this type of map showing yet another snow shaft for East Central Nebraska would make me pretty angry... however I have checked out of wanting to see snow here after our last system.

 

Enjoy this “token” snow, whoever gets it... this guy is ready for an early Spring (and I hope and believe the groundhog was full of s%^t earlier today).

 

Bring the state of Nebraska a February torch again, please Mother Nature! Cold and dry sounds utterly painful as we have seen way too much of that around here the last 3 years.

[Tom]

18z GEFS...nudged a little more NW again...if 00z GFS maintains the trend, its something to pay attention to going forward.  Also, I'm seeing more juice ensemble members which may provide a clue towards a better organized southern stream system.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then us

[Bryan1117]

As usual were in a terrible area for all 3 systems. Cant get anymore unlucky then us

Maybe we should just call ourselves lucky... no thanks to more “token” snows. Also makes me feel better that I turned down an awesome deal on a snowblower last year, I figured I wouldn’t need it around here.

 

Let’s add another WAY below normal snowfall Winter season to the list and move on to Spring.

[Niko]

Models should have better understanding by early next week. Overall, looks very, very interesting.

[Niko]

Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png

Picture-perfect map!

[Tom]

Out in 00z NAM lala land, a sweet high end advisory type event across parts of IA/N IL/N IN Mon/Mon pm...

 

 

[james1976]

Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice.

[Tom]

Im lost on what system is what. Lol. But the snow maps are lookin pretty nice.

This is the 1st wave on Mon/Mon pm that drops a nice swath of snow. The secondary piece which develops later Tue into Wed may end up being the stronger system to watch. Let’s see what the 00z suite of runs show.

[jaster220]

Could you post the map from 6 or 12 hours prior for those of us in the plains?

I would if I had those. That map was snagged elsewhere

[Money]

Gfs coming in south with the next two waves

[Hawkeye]

GFS still looking solid for Iowa on Monday... a nice 0.3" qpf band from nw to ec IA.  DVN's disco this afternoon mentioned 15 or even 20+ to 1 ratio.

[bud2380]

The Monday event looks very similar to the December 29th system that dropped 6” IMBY.

[GDR]

Kc gets hit well

[Tony]

GFS keeps shearing out this wave on pretty much every run but Euro and ensembles think otherwise. Lots of runs to look out before this wave gets figured out

[bud2380]

Canadian a bit further north with the first wave than the GFS and then way south with the second wave.

[Niko]

Noaa:

 

Attention in the extended period remains on the potential for more
significant snowfall on Wednesday. The aforementioned shortwave over
the western CONUS will dig through the central plains and eventually
track up the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, leading to a developing
surface low pressure system over the eastern CONUS. As with its
previous several runs, the ECMWF places this surface low over
eastern OH/western PA which keeps SE Michigan in a favorable
position for heavy snow on the NW side of the system. However, the
GFS and Canadian models remain adamant on the system tracking
farther east and thereby keeping our area out of the precipitation
altogether. Chance PoPs remain in the forecast while variability in
model solutions remains so high. Expect a clearer picture to develop
as the upper wave is better sampled early next week. Guidance does
agree that highs will remain slightly below average Wednesday.

[GDR]

Icon is way south on the 2nd wave

[snowstorm83]

Icon is way south on the 2nd wave

I guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash.

[bud2380]

ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday

[Tom]

00z GFS paints 4-6” across NE IL (5” at ORD) nice trend and certainly looking like Lehs is in the table. This would be a nice base to build off of to start a snowy trend.

[GDR]

[GDR]

Can anyone spot the dome?

[Hawkeye]

ICON blasts the i 80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa Monday

 

00z runs for Cedar Rapids

 

GFS: 0.32"

GDPS: 0.32"

ICON: 0.37"

 

I'm getting a bit excited.  It's still 60 hours away, though... plenty of time to lift or sag a couple counties, or weaken.

[snowstorm83]

Can anyone spot the dome?

Peyton Manning: Omaha! Omaha! Omaha!

[Tabitha]

I guess this is the one time that I'm glad the ICON is trash.

 

Never say that!  The ICON is an icon!

[hlcater]

It's the ICON, but thats juicy. I like it. Especially sitting just north of the model mean. I think we're in a good spot for this one.

 

[Tabitha]

Can anyone spot the dome?

 

Yes, Logan is running away from it...

 

Jessica is with him

 

Francis is in hot pursuit...

[bud2380]

Uk also solid hit along the i80 and hwy 30 corridor in Iowa.