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February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

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#101
Tabitha

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:45 PM

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Welp...it has came to this. 0z NAVY model looks wonderful here! lol

 

The ship be sinkin'....



#102
Tabitha

Posted 03 February 2018 - 01:22 AM

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The Goddess owed me a favor...

 

Send me $20 and *maybe* we can get it changed at 6z....

 

The Pony Express didn't get the check here in time...

Attached Files



#103
Tabitha

Posted 03 February 2018 - 01:43 AM

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Thanks Dennis Reynolds. So thoughtful of you <3

 

"Glenn Howerton as Dennis Reynolds – Dennis is a co-owner of Paddy's Pub and is Dee's twin brother. Easily the most sociopathic of the characters, Dennis is abrasive, narcissistic, selfish, histrionic, and vain. Dennis graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. It is at times hinted that Dennis may be a psychopathic serial killer, but this remains ambiguous. After the season 12 finale it is unclear whether or not Dennis will be returning for the show's 13th and 14th seasons"

_________________________________

 

I so never graduated from the University of Pennsylvania...I got through two semesters.

 

As for the rest....well...



#104
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 01:59 AM

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06Z GFS-Attached File  snku_024h.us_mw.png   338.59KB   0 downloads


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#105
GDR

Posted 03 February 2018 - 02:15 AM

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That is a wonderful map! Nice spread the wealth and not just the 1%!

#106
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 02:26 AM

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Dang. If the GFS is right we may get a winter storm watch tomorrow.

#107
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 02:47 AM

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DMX not talking as widespread of totals shown in previous maps. Oh well- they got time to let reality sink in. After all- yday was 1-2" with locally higher amounts.

 

The medium range
GFS/Euro are in good agreement with regard to Monday`s system at
this time with the NAM a slight outlier. Strong warm air advection
will attempt to replace the Arctic air and lead to strong lift by
Monday morning over southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa. Bufr
soundings show rapid top-down saturation from northwest Iowa east
southeast with time. The strong warm air advection and frontal
forcing will lead to moderate snowfall from the morning through
afternoon hours across the northwest to the east/southeast by the
afternoon as the better lift/warm air advection move across the
region. Both the GFS/Euro show total max qpf between .30 to .40 from
northwest to east/southeast by 00z. Snow ratios in the band of
heavier precipitation will reach 15 to 20 during the day Monday with
areas farther north into the colder air seeing the higher snowfalls.
Snowfall rates of 1/2 inch or more per hour may occur with this
system though winds are not expected to cause major additive
visibility reductions or blowing snow. The northern areas are more
favored to see 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
and the south a dusting to up to perhaps 2 inches on the southern
edge of the snow band. At this point would expect to have an
advisory for the event with exact placement better positioned in the
next 24 to 36 hours as a better handle on qpf and track of higher
qpf come into view.



#108
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 03:12 AM

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Definite S and even W shift in GEFS 24 QPF over past few runs...

 

06Z- (most recent)Attached File  gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_10.png   91.67KB   0 downloads

 

00Z- Attached File  gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_11.png   91.8KB   0 downloads

 

18Z- Attached File  gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_12.png   91.06KB   0 downloads



#109
Tom

Posted 03 February 2018 - 03:51 AM

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Both the 00z Euro Op/EPS have backed off on the secondary wave and is weaker farther south but still looks good for KC/MO/STL/INDY.  Hey, at least practically everyone on here may score some hits through mid week, esp our KC/MO peeps who have been on the sidelines all winter season.



#110
Niko

Posted 03 February 2018 - 05:49 AM

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Its too bad Euro caved into the GFS. Hopefully, we get some changes early next week. :wacko:



#111
NEJeremy

Posted 03 February 2018 - 06:29 AM

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I think I saw it's been almost 800 days since Des Moines had their last 3" snowfall. Looks good to break that streak. Are you in Des Moines?



#112
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 06:43 AM

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Attached File  snku_acc.us_mw.png   406.54KB   0 downloads

I think I saw it's been almost 800 days since Des Moines had their last 3" snowfall. Looks good to break that streak. Are you in Des Moines?

Close--- I work in DSM but live about 30 min NNW.   It's going to be real close. The airport is on the S side which is not helping matters.

 

NAM- above...


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#113
james1976

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:10 AM

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Really liking how this looks. Wouldnt be surprised if a few counties get warning snows. DMX still being conservative.
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#114
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:20 AM

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Really liking how this looks. Wouldnt be surprised if a few counties get warning snows. DMX still being conservative.

+1 Also here.  -- liking the overall trends (of late). But we all know WAY too well what can happen there.....


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#115
Bryan1117

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:22 AM

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Really? Cant get anymore comical then this

A3ZnBhQ.jpg

Is there a reason you would expect anything different? Welcome to Winter as we know it in Eastern Nebraska.

Craig, lowering your expectations of seeing snow in Winter around this area will help soften the blow of missing an “epic” 2-4 inch snowfall.

#116
NEJeremy

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:28 AM

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Is there a reason you would expect anything different? Welcome to Winter as we know it in Eastern Nebraska.

Craig, lowering your expectations of seeing snow in Winter around this area will help soften the blow of missing an “epic” 2-4 inch snowfall.

I noticed we're now down to a 30% chance of snow for tomorrow's wave, when we were at 80% on Thursday. I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of the week either. Like you said, not shocking at all.



#117
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:32 AM

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ICON has shifted the heavy band south the last couple runs, now has the best snow from Des Moines to Burlington.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#118
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:39 AM

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ICON has shifted the heavy band south the last couple runs, now has the best snow from Des Moines to Burlington.

Noticed that also. Just do not know how much stock you can put in it. I guess we will find out. 



#119
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:44 AM

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GFS going S in IA... quite a ways actually. And it slows down...



#120
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:47 AM

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Attached File  USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_069.gif   54.94KB   0 downloads


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#121
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

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Attached File  snku_acc.us_mw.png   406.54KB   2 downloads


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#122
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:56 AM

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DVN, in their overnight discussion, mentioned a possible area of greater convergence south of I-80, which the GFS and ICON are beginning to latch onto.

 

The GFS has juiced up overall, though, so I'm still at about 0.35" qpf.  I sure would like that 0.50" band, though.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#123
james1976

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:57 AM

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Is some of this from the light snow expected later today?



#124
Iowawx

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:58 AM

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When would this snow begin in Cedar Rapids, Iowa? Trying to figure out when I should be off the roads.

#125
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 07:59 AM

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When would this snow begin in Cedar Rapids, Iowa? Trying to figure out when I should be off the roads.

 

Late morning.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#126
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:03 AM

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@ GFS.

Attached Files


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#127
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:05 AM

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Attached File  snku_024h.us_mw.png   339.54KB   0 downloads

Is some of this from the light snow expected later today?

 


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#128
james1976

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:13 AM

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Hope this doesn't go any further south. Hoping for 6+ here!



#129
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:41 AM

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12z GDPS (Canadian)

 

Attached File  GDPS_12zFeb03.png   311.5KB   3 downloads


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#130
Iowawx

Posted 03 February 2018 - 08:51 AM

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12z GDPS (Canadian)

GDPS_12zFeb03.png


If you had to make an early guess, how much snow should we expect in the Cedar Rapids area?

#131
james1976

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:07 AM

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Might be a Hawkeye and Bud jackpot.



#132
Tom

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:12 AM

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12z GEFS look wet for IA and parts of IL...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_13.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_9.png



#133
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:21 AM

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This storms dead to me. Anyone else?

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#134
snowstorm83

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Well, models are pretty consistent with the southeast NE middle finger, so I'll give them that.



#135
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:21 AM

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UKAttached File  0358A1C4-FADA-4760-8BFA-C7357B640B98.jpeg   122.13KB   0 downloads

#136
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 09:47 AM

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Last night's UK was the southern outlier, so it did move north a bit this morning, as expected.  Its best snow band is from Sioux City to the Quad Cities.  It drops about 0.30" on CR and 0.40" on QC.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#137
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:10 AM

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Euro from the data I have gotten from punching in airport codes appears to have shifted a little S in W.Central IA, (increased about 50% qpf from last nights run)  but appears to have held about the same in E.IA. 



#138
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:11 AM

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IOW-

 

 MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.2   -11.5    1026      47     100    0.06     547     528   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.7   -12.8    1024      81      98    0.23     546     528   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -15.9   -11.1    1027      91      12    0.01     547     526



#139
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:13 AM

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CID- 

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -11.8    1026      49      99    0.06     546     527   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.0   -13.4    1024      80      96    0.20     546     527

 

ALO-

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB -10.3   -12.1    1025      59      99    0.08     544     525   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.2   -14.1    1024      73      81    0.09     543     525 



#140
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:14 AM

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DSM- last nights run was .17" total

 

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -8.6    -9.7    1024      53      99    0.12     549     531   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -13.6    1024      77      66    0.13     548     529

 

​AMW-

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -10.9    1024      65      99    0.17     547     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.1   -13.8    1024      76      64    0.10     546     527 



#141
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:16 AM

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OTW for GDR-

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -8.2    -8.8    1025      40     100    0.06     550     531   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -11.4    1024      79     100    0.19     549     531



#142
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Euro definitely dried it out a bit(hopefully just a one-run blip) and also shifted south to near the UK path.  CR only gets 0.26" this run, now at the low end of model qpf.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#143
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Wow its so close to us here! Come on God give us a miracle, we only need 50 miles! Lol

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#144
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:22 AM

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Euro looks to have heaviest snow along and south of highway 30 in Iowa. I80 corridor where I live looks good right now

#145
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Euro looks to have heaviest snow along and south of highway 30 in Iowa. I80 corridor where I live looks good right now

Agree- from the data I have gathered that appears to be the case. Any map I can post is still about 20 minutes out so if anyone has one faster, be my guest/



#146
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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I wonder if DVN will issue a watch for some counties. I think they should. GFS showing up to 10” and even if that is high 5-7” in less than 12 hours seems likely in spots, worthy of a warning

#147
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

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#148
Hawkeye

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:38 AM

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I wonder if DVN will issue a watch for some counties. I think they should. GFS showing up to 10” and even if that is high 5-7” in less than 12 hours seems likely in spots, worthy of a warning

 

They may be thinking about it, but the new euro showing the max qpf of only ~0.30" may give them pause.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#149
bud2380

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Even if the euro is right with slightly lower qpf if ratios are near 20:1 we’d be right at warning criteria. They could always wait until morning and get one more full suite of model runs.

#150
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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