February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[james1976]

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Is some of this from the light snow expected later today?

[Iowawx]

When would this snow begin in Cedar Rapids, Iowa? Trying to figure out when I should be off the roads.

[Hawkeye]

When would this snow begin in Cedar Rapids, Iowa? Trying to figure out when I should be off the roads.

 

Late morning.

[Minny_Weather]

@ GFS.

[Grizzcoat]

Is some of this from the light snow expected later today?

 

[james1976]

Hope this doesn't go any further south. Hoping for 6+ here!

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS (Canadian)

 

[Iowawx]

12z GDPS (Canadian)

 

GDPS_12zFeb03.png

If you had to make an early guess, how much snow should we expect in the Cedar Rapids area?

[james1976]

Might be a Hawkeye and Bud jackpot.

[Tom]

12z GEFS look wet for IA and parts of IL...

 

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This storms dead to me. Anyone else?

[snowstorm83]

Well, models are pretty consistent with the southeast NE middle finger, so I'll give them that.

[bud2380]

UK

[Hawkeye]

Last night's UK was the southern outlier, so it did move north a bit this morning, as expected.  Its best snow band is from Sioux City to the Quad Cities.  It drops about 0.30" on CR and 0.40" on QC.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro from the data I have gotten from punching in airport codes appears to have shifted a little S in W.Central IA, (increased about 50% qpf from last nights run)  but appears to have held about the same in E.IA. 

[Grizzcoat]

IOW-

 

 MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.2   -11.5    1026      47     100    0.06     547     528   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.7   -12.8    1024      81      98    0.23     546     528   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -15.9   -11.1    1027      91      12    0.01     547     526

[Grizzcoat]

CID- 

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -11.8    1026      49      99    0.06     546     527   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.0   -13.4    1024      80      96    0.20     546     527

 

ALO-

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB -10.3   -12.1    1025      59      99    0.08     544     525   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.2   -14.1    1024      73      81    0.09     543     525 

[Grizzcoat]

DSM- last nights run was .17" total

 

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -8.6    -9.7    1024      53      99    0.12     549     531   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -13.6    1024      77      66    0.13     548     529

 

​AMW-

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -10.9    1024      65      99    0.17     547     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB -10.1   -13.8    1024      76      64    0.10     546     527 

[Grizzcoat]

OTW for GDR-

 

MON 18Z 05-FEB  -8.2    -8.8    1025      40     100    0.06     550     531   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -11.4    1024      79     100    0.19     549     531

[Hawkeye]

Euro definitely dried it out a bit(hopefully just a one-run blip) and also shifted south to near the UK path.  CR only gets 0.26" this run, now at the low end of model qpf.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow its so close to us here! Come on God give us a miracle, we only need 50 miles! Lol

[bud2380]

Euro looks to have heaviest snow along and south of highway 30 in Iowa. I80 corridor where I live looks good right now

[Grizzcoat]

Euro looks to have heaviest snow along and south of highway 30 in Iowa. I80 corridor where I live looks good right now

Agree- from the data I have gathered that appears to be the case. Any map I can post is still about 20 minutes out so if anyone has one faster, be my guest/

[bud2380]

I wonder if DVN will issue a watch for some counties. I think they should. GFS showing up to 10” and even if that is high 5-7” in less than 12 hours seems likely in spots, worthy of a warning

[bud2380]

[Hawkeye]

I wonder if DVN will issue a watch for some counties. I think they should. GFS showing up to 10” and even if that is high 5-7” in less than 12 hours seems likely in spots, worthy of a warning

 

They may be thinking about it, but the new euro showing the max qpf of only ~0.30" may give them pause.

[bud2380]

Even if the euro is right with slightly lower qpf if ratios are near 20:1 we’d be right at warning criteria. They could always wait until morning and get one more full suite of model runs.

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[bud2380]

Do you have a total snow map Grizz?

[Grizzcoat]

10:1 , but I'am in bed.

[bud2380]

18z NAM has snow starting after 12pm Monday in Iowa City but has 3.7” by 3pm. That is some heavy snow rates

[bud2380]

And 8” by 6pm. So 8” in less than 6 hours per the nam

[bud2380]

10.3” total on about .6” qpf

[hlcater]

18z NAM 12km snowfall. 

 

 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020318/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

18z gfs further south

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Holy ! We may get in on this!

 

[hlcater]

Holy s**t! We may get in on this!

 

 

I'm never sure how you feel on a storm because you live and die every run.

[Hawkeye]

DVN talking general 2-5, narrow band of 6-7 somewhere.

[Minny_Weather]

18z NAM 12km snowfall. 

Oh my god.