February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[Grizzcoat]

The cutoff on the HRRR is very sharp between CR and Iowa City. Iowa City keeps showing up on the southern edge of the heaviest band. Cedar Rapids looks to be in a great spot. I’m right in between.

Same here. The county I live in (Dallas) varies from .20" qpf to .50" qpf on the latest runs.  I'am also right in the middle so it could go either way.

[VMB443]

WWA for us, 2-3 inches. Not sure about that personally, but nice to get another headline so soon after Sat/Sun.

[Tom]

LOT's update snowfall forecast....

 

 http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[Tom]

LOT suggesting rather high snow ratios:

 

 

 

Forecast soundings indicate a very deep layer (well in
excess of 10 kft) of saturated conditions within the dendritic
growth zone, though omega peaks at the top or just above this
layer. The very deep DGZ should help to achieve higher than
average snow to liquid ratios. NAM Cobb outputs suggests average
of 16-17:1 while time-lagged ensemble guidance shows a decent
likelihood of achieving 25:1 ratios at times. Took a middle
ground on the SLR nudging up slightly from previous forecast
getting closer to a 20:1 average. Generally expect total QPF
values of 0.15 to 0.30 across the CWA which will result in
deterministic snow totals of 3-6 inches.

 

[FarmerRick]

https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OAX&brand=wui&num=16&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25297261&lat=41.47476196&lon=-96.20301819&label=Kennard%2C+NE

 

 

 

#Omadome... 

[Grizzcoat]

SIGN ME UP!!!

[snowstorm83]

GID put up an advisory for Grand Island/Kearney/Hastings.

[james1976]

Warning on the table?

[Grizzcoat]

Warning on the table?

DMX will only do it when (if) its happening. Maybe around 11am if radar trends hold but even then , if BeerEnds, is working, forget about it.

[Minny_Weather]

Meh. Everything is to our North. I'm fine with that, I have a big exam today and this is the one day I DON'T need much snow.

[BrianJK]

LOT suggesting rather high snow ratios:

Still sticking with 2 here. Let’s see what happens.

[bud2380]

Based on radar trends Des Moines looks to be in the primo spot to me.

[bud2380]

And the latest HRRR agrees with Des Moines being in the best spot.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018020513/018/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Minny_Weather]

Nothing on radar for us is reaching the ground yet. We are surrounded by pretty dark clouds however.

[Niko]

Man, this system is a fast mover. In and Out! Will dump a quick 1-3" IMBY. Nice!

[Hawkeye]

When I first checked the radar an hour ago, I thought it looked like good snow was farther south in western Iowa than I expected.  Now the models are trending more robust out that way and a bit south in general.  Des Moines really does look good.  The HRRR is clobbering that area.  I'm still thinking 5" here, which I'll be quite pleased with.

[Minny_Weather]

Upper air temps look warm so I'm not too sure how much that'll affect ratios. No wind, however. Still thinking whatever we see will accumulate pretty easily. If we end up getting an isolated band like some models are showing an inch should be easy to achieve.

[bud2380]

HRRR has been consistently showing around 7" for CR and IC.  That would be sweet.  

[Iowawx]

Radar is lighting up around my area. Snow should begin here soon. Hoping for 6-7 inches out of this. More would be great, but depends where best band is. I am kind of surprised that a Winter Storm Warning has not been issued yet.

[bud2380]

this is a very quick storm. It's going to have to dump 1"/hr rates at times to get 6+".  It might only snow 9 hours.  

[james1976]

10+ for dsm?? Wow

[NEJeremy]

Looking at radar trends from the Hastings radar, I'd say Omaha is in a sweet spot. The heavy band appears to be heading right towards us. Hopefully, it doesn't weaken/shift north!

[james1976]

Gotta love it when the heavy band sets up 10 miles to the south

[bud2380]

radar looks like it's moving mostly west to east.  

[hlcater]

HRRR shows us getting 8" in about 8 hours(or slightly less). I don't buy that. I could see 5-6 though.

[NEJeremy]

Gotta love it when the heavy band sets up 10 miles to the south

Look at what's happening to Omaha right now. Heavier returns west, north, and east of us. It's like an arc of snow all around of us, with not a single flake falling right now. OMADOME!!

[Madtown]

heavy snow wording added to the forecast here!

[james1976]

DSM gonna get crushed. I bet Warning gets issued soon.

[Hawkeye]

Last two runs of the HRRR have 0.4" back up into CR.

[Madtown]

also talking 20 or 25 to 1 ratios.

[bud2380]

Des Moines area is going to get hit hard for the next few hours at least.  Good spot to be in.  Hopefully it maintains it's intensity as it heads east, if it does it will hit my area head on.

[FV-Mike]

Des Moines area is going to get hit hard for the next few hours at least.  Good spot to be in.  Hopefully it maintains it's intensity as it heads east, if it does it will hit my area head on.

Are flakes flying by you yet? 

[bud2380]

nice little dry slot working in right over I80 where I live.  So still nothing here.  Should start in the next 15 minutes or so though.  

[Hawkeye]

First flakes reaching the ground in CR.

[hlcater]

nice little dry slot working in right over I80 where I live.  So still nothing here.  Should start in the next 15 minutes or so though.

 

Not snowing up here either, but forecast soundings showed a hefty dry layer in the lower levels, although the rates should overcome that within the hour. NWS was talking about it in their AFD.

[Grizzcoat]

Are flakes flying by you yet? 

The snow is mainly smaller flakes which are not that efficient in accumulating but occasionally it does get better. About 30 miles WNW of DSM. I doubt WSW go out because of this factor.The Hrrr and RAP showing amounts near 10" is not going to happen, but a solid 5-7" is not out of the question if you can get under the heavier bands. 

[WBadgersW]

MKE raised things up here. Should get 1-2.5" of fluff on top of our 6" snowpack.

[Niko]

By looking at the radar, this baby is moving due east towards SEMI. I like the way its holding up. I just hope it doesn't lose its grip as it heads E. I can see a couple of inches for MBY tbh (2-4"), assuming it does not break up, in terms of precipitationwise.

[james1976]

Forcing must suck in mby. Falls apart as it gets close.

[Minny_Weather]

Light snow in Downtown Lincoln right now. Driving home. Radar looks good.