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February 6th-7th Plains/MW/Lower Lakes System

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#1
Tom

Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:01 AM

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The 3rd, in a series of weather disturbances since this past weekend, is showing signs of a better phasing storm system coming up from the southern plains and tracking towards the OV.  Most models have all jumped on the idea of a light/mod accumulating snowfall from the central Plains ENE towards the lower lakes.  Let's discuss...

 

 

Here is the 00z/06z GFS snowfall forecasts during this period...



#2
Tom

Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:31 AM

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The 00z Euro has a good 2-5" across NE, 1-3" for N MO/S IA/N IL/N IN/S MI...



#3
Tom

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:25 AM

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12z NAM showing a ribbon of snow from near KC through the lower lakes...another couple inches in Chitown???

 

 



#4
Tony

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:27 AM

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12z NAM showing a ribbon of snow from near KC through the lower lakes...another couple inches in Chitown???

I can actually see this wave getting stronger/wetter for our area doubling what you mentioned above


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#5
Tom

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:33 AM

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I can actually see this wave getting stronger/wetter for our area doubling what you mentioned above

This map looks like for today's event....this thread is meant for Tue pm/Wed am



#6
Clinton

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:36 AM

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I would like to see the models come in a little stronger and more widespread today.  The Canadian model was the only model that got it right for me yesterday as I picked up 1.5in.



#7
Tony

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:38 AM

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This map looks like for today's event....this thread is meant for Tue pm/Wed am

My bad...so many waves it gets confusing which is a good thing!


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#8
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:01 AM

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My bad...so many waves it gets confusing which is a good thing!

I was confused also.  We just had some mixed precipitation move through with a temp of 11.  Weird.  Overnight through first half of Tuesday they are saying 3-4 inches, possibly more, mainly south of I-80 in Central Nebraska.  That will add to my solid 5" or more and then eyes turn to the weekend.  Tom, you have drawn me back in.  :)


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#9
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:06 AM

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Its too bad this storm system is moving too fast and not slower. It is preventing it from phasing, even though, the track is beautiful. Go figure. This would have been one heckova snowstorm. It will bypass SEMI, but close enough to give me some lighter snows w a couple of inches.



#10
iFred

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:08 AM

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Getting the feeling that this winter was only good if you lived either in the South or in the Appalachians.



#11
Hawkeye

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:20 AM

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ICON has been trending better, now suggests 1-2" up to Cedar Rapids.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#12
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:28 AM

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We're gonna nickel and dime our way to a 6" depth here.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#13
snowstorm83

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:44 AM

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GFS a bit better for everyone. Heaviest totals still in NE KS and N MO. 



#14
bud2380

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

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snku_024h.us_mw.png



#15
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:49 AM

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If this storm can phase a little faster and slow down a bit, then, we have a better shot at higher accumulations, otherwise, it will pass too far east, considering it has a very good track, if you will.



#16
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:43 AM

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The 3rd, in a series of weather disturbances since this past weekend, is showing signs of a better phasing storm system coming up from the southern plains and tracking towards the OV.  Most models have all jumped on the idea of a light/mod accumulating snowfall from the central Plains ENE towards the lower lakes.  Let's discuss...

 

 

Here is the 00z/06z GFS snowfall forecasts during this period...

 

It's challenging just to parse the snowfall maps with so many waves in succession. I like the looks of the 6z map, anything more would be cake icing


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#17
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 12:20 PM

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NWS Hastings has already put us back into a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow for 2-4 inches, especially south of I-80 into Northern Kansas.

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected during the day Tuesday. Plan on slippery
road conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
forecast.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and east central and
south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may be reduced at times during
the snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.


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#18
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 12:27 PM

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"Sneaky" over-performer in the making?? Benefitted from several such systems already this winter, why not another one?? What the heck? 

 

CPC per Friday was chucking us in SMI a bone

 

Attached File  20180202_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png   413.9KB   1 downloads

 

This looks pretty robust to my eyes, and yeah, like Niko mentioned, IF this woulda phased slightly coulda been a Warned event

 

Attached File  20180205 7am ICast map for Wed the 7th.gif   89.48KB   2 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#19
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 01:26 PM

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"Sneaky" over-performer in the making?? Benefitted from several such systems already this winter, why not another one?? What the heck? 

 

CPC per Friday was chucking us in SMI a bone

 

attachicon.gif20180202_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

 

This looks pretty robust to my eyes, and yeah, like Niko mentioned, IF this woulda phased slightly coulda been a Warned event

 

attachicon.gif20180205 7am ICast map for Wed the 7th.gif

This thing bears watching Jaster, as our region has potential for some heavy snow Tues night into Wednesday. Track is still in the air.


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#20
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 01:56 PM

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This thing bears watching Jaster, as our region has potential for some heavy snow Tues night into Wednesday. Track is still in the air.

 

GRR not sold on a huge deal, but would not be surprised to see radar blossom a lot better at game-time and a last-minute increase in totals happen. GRR failed to forecast both Jan 12th and 29th "surprise" events in their far SE corner that they prefer to "put on ignore" whenever possible. 

 

"Another period of snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday
that will also be lake enhanced and as a surface low tracks to our
SE. Another 1 to 4 inches is expected from this event.."


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#21
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

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GRR not sold on a huge deal, but would not be surprised to see radar blossom a lot better at game-time and a last-minute increase in totals happen. GRR failed to forecast both Jan 12th and 29th "surprise" events in their far SE corner that they prefer to "put on ignore" whenever possible. 

 

"Another period of snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday
that will also be lake enhanced and as a surface low tracks to our
SE. Another 1 to 4 inches is expected from this event.."

All it takes is a small shift. Could this be another surprise, overachiever snowstorm in the making??!!



#22
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:49 AM

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WWA's issued for S NE/KC/N MO and into C IL....a good chance at seeing another re-fresher for CentralNeb as well as into N IL with a couple inches of snow.  I could get used to these day-to-day chances of snow.  Is this what it feels like up near the lake belts but with much vigor??

 

LOT's take...

 

Tab2FileL.png?627ee1bba0a3c003ba5d14b06f



#23
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:54 AM

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06z NAM...I'd take another couple inches in a heartbeat....

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#24
snowman1

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:45 AM

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What are we thinking on ratios for this thing?

 

I'm with you Tom, I'd take a nice fresh layer tomorrow morning. Between the early week system and the anticipated system Friday, this is the one I've been overlooking. Might be a nice, little surprise here in N/C IL. 


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#25
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:49 AM

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What are we thinking on ratios for this thing?

 

I'm with you Tom, I'd take a nice fresh layer tomorrow morning. Between the early week system and the anticipated system Friday, this is the one I've been overlooking. Might be a nice, little surprise here in N/C IL. 

Pretty high snow ratios.  LOT suggesting 16:-17:1 north of I-80 and higher ratios south of the I-80 corridor.  I think your area down near Springvalley is going to do quite well, esp if meso-scale banding develops like it did with last nights system.  How much did you get last night?



#26
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:17 AM

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12z NAM...a little lighter but still looking at a general 1-3"..

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#27
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:22 AM

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Just started snowing here in the last hour.  Hoping for 2-3", high end would be 4" but I doubt we hit that.


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#28
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:30 AM

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I'll take 2" to cover up the grass completely. That would make the depth at my place about 4-5", which should hopefully be enough to knock temps down a couple degrees Thursday. Current forecasted high is 38.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#29
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:35 AM

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WWA's issued for S NE/KC/N MO and into C IL....a good chance at seeing another re-fresher for CentralNeb as well as into N IL with a couple inches of snow.  I could get used to these day-to-day chances of snow.  Is this what it feels like up near the lake belts but with much vigor??

 

LOT's take...

 

Tab2FileL.png?627ee1bba0a3c003ba5d14b06f

 

Pretty much, yes. I too love the frequent snows which keeps winter looking very fresh. Models pretty set on 2.5" for Marshall. Really was hopefull this might ramp up more, but dynamics must be lame. Idk, but it's finally a system delivering a snow swath across the Sub, and can't get amped, lol


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#30
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:36 AM

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I'll take 2" to cover up the grass completely. That would make the depth at my place about 4-5", which should hopefully be enough to knock temps down a couple degrees Thursday. Current forecasted high is 38.

 

Yikes  :(


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:38 AM

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It feels nice to be relevant in EVERY thread. Now I know how Michigan posters feel!


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#32
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:41 AM

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1-2” expected here tonight. This would just about get us back to normal snowfall season to date at 31”. Quite the comeback.
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#33
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:48 AM

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It looks interesting for later tanite into early morning. Its too bad we will not be getting the phase to occur, but, 2-4" is still looking possible. Maybe, we can overachieve some totals. Lets wait and see on that. In the meantime, not a bad event. Heavy snows will be to my E for now, unless, it changes its track. It will be a fun storm to track, that's for sure.


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#34
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:50 AM

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It feels nice to be relevant in EVERY thread. Now I know how Michigan posters feel!

 

D*amn straight!  #Michiganrockswinter  ;) (really tho, you need 4x that snow total to get the full effects)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#35
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:52 AM

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Yikes  :(

Actually might not be too bad. If we overachieve today, we can survive a 38 degree day with the grass still covered even though it won't be powder anymore. And it would melt the brown gunk off my apartment's parking lot since they're refusing to plow it themselves.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#36
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:53 AM

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It looks interesting for later tanite into early morning. Its too bad we will not be getting the phase to occur, but, 2-4" is still looking possible. Maybe, we can overachieve some totals. Lets wait and see on that. In the meantime, not a bad event. Heavy snows will be to my E for now, unless, it changes its track. It will be a fun storm to track, that's for sure.

 

Can't be worse than last night's miss. What'd you get anyways? Had only 1.1" in Marshall


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#37
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 06:59 AM

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Can't be worse than last night's miss. What'd you get anyways? Had only 1.1" in Marshall

Picked up 1.8". Very powdery.



#38
snowman1

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:09 AM

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Pretty high snow ratios.  LOT suggesting 16:-17:1 north of I-80 and higher ratios south of the I-80 corridor.  I think your area down near Springvalley is going to do quite well, esp if meso-scale banding develops like it did with last nights system.  How much did you get last night?

 

I measured 4" IMBY from last night's system. Airport nearby in Peru is reporting just under that. Very scenic outside on my way into work this morning with all the trees whitened up.

 

I think 2" would be a fair call for here based on recent model runs for tonight/early tomorrow morning. Hoping it hangs around through the morning to watch some of it fall. We'll see what HRRR and close range NAM's have to say today.


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#39
gabel23

Posted 06 February 2018 - 07:27 AM

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Nice 2-3" band being predicted to go through my area today. I would gladly take another 2" of snow! 

 

Attached Files



#40
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:30 AM

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Really been coming down here the last 1.5 hours.  Radar still looks great.  Maybe we can top 3"


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#41
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:34 AM

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Heavier returns in North Central KS are headed up here. I'm excited. Dry slot in South Central NE is filling in. I have a big advantage being in SE Lancaster County too.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:36 AM

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Really been coming down here the last 1.5 hours.  Radar still looks great.  Maybe we can top 3"

How's the flake size? 


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#43
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:38 AM

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How's the flake size?


I have PTSD from yesterday. Hopefully the 1" we're expected to get from this will not be dust.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:39 AM

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I have PTSD from yesterday. Hopefully the 1" we're expected to get from this will not be dust.

Yeah same here. Came down steady for about 4 hours but we had 3 hours 40 minutes of white sand followed by 20 minutes of fat flakes.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#45
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 06 February 2018 - 08:40 AM

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Although it it's only an inch, so I'm not sure why I care so much.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#46
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:00 AM

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I'd be surprised if OAX didn't issue a WWA in the next couple hours considering GID and TOP already have.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#47
Tony

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:01 AM

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Radar is looking pretty healthy



#48
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:06 AM

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Yeah I don't think the dry slot currently over McCook and Araphoe should be an issue to us. Looks like the precip waves are combining.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#49
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:19 AM

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How's the flake size? 

was fairly large, now much smaller.



#50
elrayox

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:46 AM

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Yeah I don't think the dry slot currently over McCook and Araphoe should be an issue to us. Looks like the precip waves are combining.