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February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

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#1
Tom

Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:20 AM

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Could this be the season's first widespread and significantly impacting snowstorm for parts of our sub forum???  The excitement is building as the models are honing in on a long duration snowfall starting later Friday and possibly lasting all the way through the weekend.  Current guidance is suggesting an initial elongated wave of snow to develop Friday into Saturday, then a possible surface low to form in the southern plains and track up towards the Lower Lakes.  There are still many details to iron out and a long week of tracking this system.

 

Here is the 00z Euro Control...

 

 

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#2
Madtown

Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:54 AM

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Milwaukee biting on the GFS southern solution. Down to 40% chance snow on Fri.

#3
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:32 AM

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Tons of moving pieces with this system. Ensembles are all over the place right now. Not expecting anything exciting here but I bet the models continue to struggle with this for a few more days and show wild swings from run to run.

#4
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:05 AM

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NWS Hastings is at least mentioning this weekend's potential stormy weather:

 

Late Thursday into Friday another disturbance will slide into the

trough over the east coast. This disturbance will cause an area of
precipitation to develop across the Northern Plains slowly
sliding southward impacting northern Nebraska and potentially into
central and eastern Nebraska. Hot on its heals, a potent
disturbance will dive out of the Pacific Northwest and move
towards the Central Plains. The combination the two of these
systems will lead to the chance for snowfall Thursday night
through Saturday evening. There is still quite a bit of time for
this period to be fine tuned and as it nears. Stay tuned to later
forecasts.




#5
Hawkeye

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:22 AM

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12z ICON still taking it north of Iowa.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#6
Hawkeye

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:10 AM

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Uh oh, GFS lifting the baroclinic zone north just a bit, stronger pull of warm, moist gulf air, now targeting northern Iowa into s MN and WI for heavy snow... bringing mixing up into central Iowa.

 

Locations just far enough north into the consistent snow could really get dumped on.  Locations just south of that line could get screwed.

 

I certainly don't want a layer of crusty crap on top of our nice fluff.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#7
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:14 AM

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Long ways to go, but this storm has potential to bring a large mixture of precipitation types.  I have seen these storms before in Nebraska where we could have anything from heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, to plain rain moving across.  This one has the potential to cause travel issues and other problems.  Shouldn't be a boring week around the Central US.



#8
bud2380

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:15 AM

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GFS has about 72 hours straight of snow in Iowa (which would have to be some kind of record, plus it did the same thing one other time this year and it didn't pan out at all).  Some areas switching from snow to freezing rain though.  We'll have to watch for that potential development as well. 



#9
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:24 AM

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Then I see at the end of the period the Low looks to cut off in the Southwest then come back on a northeast path to the Central Plains.  What a wild pattern.  It would all pan out, but better than recent years for sure.



#10
Yerf

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:55 AM

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Attached File  DVRboyNX0AAry6o.jpg   140.18KB   2 downloads


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#11
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:55 AM

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This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. :D


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#12
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:32 AM

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No legend..what's that deeper pink shade knocking on my door??


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#13
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:33 AM

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This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. :D

 

Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy?  ;)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#14
james1976

Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:51 AM

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DMX morning disco had some pretty good wording on this:
The big story toward the end of the period is a possible developing
mainly east to west baroclinic zone setting up from northern
Missouri to southern Minnesota for several days. With an active
wave pattern still intact through the end of the period, both the
GFS and the Euro models show a extended period of clouds and light
to moderate precipitation from Thursday through Sunday. The Euro
seems a bit more realistic trying to separate wave energy and
subsequent precipitation into two distinct periods: one from
Thursday night into Friday night and the second from Saturday
morning through Sunday morning while the GFS more or less has
continuous precipitation through the entire period. In either case,
if this pattern is realized, this would be the snowiest period we
have seen in quite some time. Details on amounts and locations of
snowfall will have to wait for now...but the signal for weak to
modest warm air advection into a persistent boundary bodes well for
more clouds/higher PoP and generally more precipitation. There is
some hint at enough warm air from time to time to cause a mix of
precipitation type over the south Thursday into Friday. Highs
through the period will be in the teens north to lower 30s south at
times with lows in the single digits above/below zero north and in
the single digits south.

#15
westMJim

Posted 05 February 2018 - 10:06 AM

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Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish   



#16
Hawkeye

Posted 05 February 2018 - 10:07 AM

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12z UK hits northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois with the long-duration good baroclinic snowfall, weakens and suppresses the big weekend system.


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
james1976

Posted 05 February 2018 - 10:11 AM

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How are the snowfall maps lookin?

#18
Hawkeye

Posted 05 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

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How are the snowfall maps lookin?

 

As expected, the details are changing.  In general, models this morning are less bullish are huge snow.  The euro has gone from dumping on northern Iowa to gradually sagging lighter snow steadily south across the region.  The GFS is now again the only model with a big weekend system.  The euro has a second piece of energy passing east across Iowa, but it drops only modest snowfall.

 

Attached File  euro_12zFeb05.png   257.85KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 22.0"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#19
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 11:16 AM

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Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy?  ;)

U betcha! :D



#20
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 11:20 AM

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Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish   

Bite your tongue, its only February. :wacko: Until mid March, I want cold and snowstorms. ;) 


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#21
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish   

 

Not looking forward to moving that snow? Hire it done, and stay inside to recover..#solved  ;)

 

PS - hope you get better asap


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 01:32 PM

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We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). :D Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure.



#23
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 01:50 PM

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We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). :D Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure.

 

Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow.  :)


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#24
Niko

Posted 05 February 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow.  :)

Do you ski well?



#25
Money

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:07 PM

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Gfs coming in stronger for the Sat system

#26
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:36 PM

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18z ICON hits Nebraska hard this weekend. That would be great it it verifies. Who knows?

#27
james1976

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:46 PM

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Gfs looks pretty consistent. DMX said the ensembles are trending toward the op.

#28
Money

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:46 PM

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http://www.pivotalwe...8&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Total snow through Sat
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#29
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

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GFS makes ptype an issue here for this system. I certainly want a sleet storm!

 

Euro just says "screw you ungrateful bastards. You don't want sleet? Fine, I'll just give you nothing!"


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#30
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 05 February 2018 - 03:35 PM

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GFS makes ptype an issue here for this system. I certainly want a sleet storm!

 

Euro just says "screw you ungrateful bastards. You don't want sleet? Fine, I'll just give you nothing!"

Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lol


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 03:52 PM

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Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lol

Gives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East.

 

I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#32
NebraskaWX

Posted 05 February 2018 - 04:53 PM

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Gives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East.

 

I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again.

 

Lol dude, we still haven't had our turn. 3" from that blizzturd earlier shouldn't even count, we're not even at 10" yet.


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#33
jaster220

Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:15 PM

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Do you ski well?



Since '79. I'm not pro level, just recreational

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.1"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.4 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#34
Madtown

Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:49 PM

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How's this monster looking?😀

#35
Madtown

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:12 PM

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18z gfs has 18" by Sunday!
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#36
Money

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:46 PM

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Icon hits WI pretty good with the first wave and is showing signs of the weekend system developing

Gfs also coming north with the Thu wave

#37
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 07:51 PM

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Can we trust the ICON? Don’t know much about it. It just crushes Nebraska this weekend. We can dream.

#38
Money

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:04 PM

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Can we trust the ICON? Don’t know much about it. It just crushes Nebraska this weekend. We can dream.


Gfs hits you guys good also

#39
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

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Icon hits WI pretty good with the first wave and is showing signs of the weekend system developing

Gfs also coming north with the Thu wave

Not really, similar placement to the 18 and 12z.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 26.9"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")


#40
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:07 PM

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Gfs hits you guys good also


Might be a fun weekend.

#41
Money

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Gfs

http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=135
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#42
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:24 PM

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GFS, CMC, and ICON look remarkably similar for this weekend, just differences in amounts.

#43
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:24 PM

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A tad weaker but overall consistent. 


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:56 PM

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NAM is getting on the hype train for the initial band too. Glad to see CMC is finally showing a storm. Only stick in the mud for us is Euro.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.4"


#45
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 February 2018 - 11:52 PM

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What is this snow you speak of?

#46
james1976

Posted 06 February 2018 - 04:49 AM

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6z looks weak

#47
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:09 AM

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6z looks weak

Really???  I'd say this is solid for many of us on here....

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#48
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:14 AM

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00z Euro...deduct about .25qpf near chicago from the recent system and the one coming later tonight....same goes for parts of IN/MI...

 

 

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#49
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:29 AM

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.5ish looks good around here!

#50
Snowshoe

Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:40 AM

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Just a hair or 2 north and i'll be happy. Hoping to get our snowmobile trails open this weekend!

00z Euro...deduct about .25qpf near chicago from the recent system and the one coming later tonight....same goes for parts of IN/MI...


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif