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February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm


Tom

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Could this be the season's first widespread and significantly impacting snowstorm for parts of our sub forum???  The excitement is building as the models are honing in on a long duration snowfall starting later Friday and possibly lasting all the way through the weekend.  Current guidance is suggesting an initial elongated wave of snow to develop Friday into Saturday, then a possible surface low to form in the southern plains and track up towards the Lower Lakes.  There are still many details to iron out and a long week of tracking this system.

 

Here is the 00z Euro Control...

 

 

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NWS Hastings is at least mentioning this weekend's potential stormy weather:

 

Late Thursday into Friday another disturbance will slide into the

trough over the east coast. This disturbance will cause an area of
precipitation to develop across the Northern Plains slowly
sliding southward impacting northern Nebraska and potentially into
central and eastern Nebraska. Hot on its heals, a potent
disturbance will dive out of the Pacific Northwest and move
towards the Central Plains. The combination the two of these
systems will lead to the chance for snowfall Thursday night
through Saturday evening. There is still quite a bit of time for
this period to be fine tuned and as it nears. Stay tuned to later
forecasts.


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Uh oh, GFS lifting the baroclinic zone north just a bit, stronger pull of warm, moist gulf air, now targeting northern Iowa into s MN and WI for heavy snow... bringing mixing up into central Iowa.

 

Locations just far enough north into the consistent snow could really get dumped on.  Locations just south of that line could get screwed.

 

I certainly don't want a layer of crusty crap on top of our nice fluff.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Long ways to go, but this storm has potential to bring a large mixture of precipitation types.  I have seen these storms before in Nebraska where we could have anything from heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, to plain rain moving across.  This one has the potential to cause travel issues and other problems.  Shouldn't be a boring week around the Central US.

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GFS has about 72 hours straight of snow in Iowa (which would have to be some kind of record, plus it did the same thing one other time this year and it didn't pan out at all).  Some areas switching from snow to freezing rain though.  We'll have to watch for that potential development as well. 

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This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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No legend..what's that deeper pink shade knocking on my door??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. :D

 

Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy?  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DMX morning disco had some pretty good wording on this:

The big story toward the end of the period is a possible developing

mainly east to west baroclinic zone setting up from northern

Missouri to southern Minnesota for several days. With an active

wave pattern still intact through the end of the period, both the

GFS and the Euro models show a extended period of clouds and light

to moderate precipitation from Thursday through Sunday. The Euro

seems a bit more realistic trying to separate wave energy and

subsequent precipitation into two distinct periods: one from

Thursday night into Friday night and the second from Saturday

morning through Sunday morning while the GFS more or less has

continuous precipitation through the entire period. In either case,

if this pattern is realized, this would be the snowiest period we

have seen in quite some time. Details on amounts and locations of

snowfall will have to wait for now...but the signal for weak to

modest warm air advection into a persistent boundary bodes well for

more clouds/higher PoP and generally more precipitation. There is

some hint at enough warm air from time to time to cause a mix of

precipitation type over the south Thursday into Friday. Highs

through the period will be in the teens north to lower 30s south at

times with lows in the single digits above/below zero north and in

the single digits south.

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12z UK hits northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois with the long-duration good baroclinic snowfall, weakens and suppresses the big weekend system.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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How are the snowfall maps lookin?

 

As expected, the details are changing.  In general, models this morning are less bullish are huge snow.  The euro has gone from dumping on northern Iowa to gradually sagging lighter snow steadily south across the region.  The GFS is now again the only model with a big weekend system.  The euro has a second piece of energy passing east across Iowa, but it drops only modest snowfall.

 

euro_12zFeb05.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy?  ;)

U betcha! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish   

Bite your tongue, its only February. :wacko: Until mid March, I want cold and snowstorms. ;) 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish   

 

Not looking forward to moving that snow? Hire it done, and stay inside to recover..#solved  ;)

 

PS - hope you get better asap

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). :D Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). :D Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure.

 

Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow.  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow.  :)

Do you ski well?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS makes ptype an issue here for this system. I certainly want a sleet storm!

 

Euro just says "screw you ungrateful bastards. You don't want sleet? Fine, I'll just give you nothing!"

Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lol

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lol

Gives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East.

 

I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Gives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East.

 

I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again.

 

Lol dude, we still haven't had our turn. 3" from that blizzturd earlier shouldn't even count, we're not even at 10" yet.

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Do you ski well?

 

Since '79. I'm not pro level, just recreational

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Icon hits WI pretty good with the first wave and is showing signs of the weekend system developing

 

Gfs also coming north with the Thu wave

Not really, similar placement to the 18 and 12z.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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