Tom Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Could this be the season's first widespread and significantly impacting snowstorm for parts of our sub forum??? The excitement is building as the models are honing in on a long duration snowfall starting later Friday and possibly lasting all the way through the weekend. Current guidance is suggesting an initial elongated wave of snow to develop Friday into Saturday, then a possible surface low to form in the southern plains and track up towards the Lower Lakes. There are still many details to iron out and a long week of tracking this system. Here is the 00z Euro Control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Milwaukee biting on the GFS southern solution. Down to 40% chance snow on Fri. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Tons of moving pieces with this system. Ensembles are all over the place right now. Not expecting anything exciting here but I bet the models continue to struggle with this for a few more days and show wild swings from run to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 NWS Hastings is at least mentioning this weekend's potential stormy weather: Late Thursday into Friday another disturbance will slide into thetrough over the east coast. This disturbance will cause an area ofprecipitation to develop across the Northern Plains slowlysliding southward impacting northern Nebraska and potentially intocentral and eastern Nebraska. Hot on its heals, a potentdisturbance will dive out of the Pacific Northwest and movetowards the Central Plains. The combination the two of thesesystems will lead to the chance for snowfall Thursday nightthrough Saturday evening. There is still quite a bit of time forthis period to be fine tuned and as it nears. Stay tuned to laterforecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z ICON still taking it north of Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Uh oh, GFS lifting the baroclinic zone north just a bit, stronger pull of warm, moist gulf air, now targeting northern Iowa into s MN and WI for heavy snow... bringing mixing up into central Iowa. Locations just far enough north into the consistent snow could really get dumped on. Locations just south of that line could get screwed. I certainly don't want a layer of crusty crap on top of our nice fluff. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Long ways to go, but this storm has potential to bring a large mixture of precipitation types. I have seen these storms before in Nebraska where we could have anything from heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, to plain rain moving across. This one has the potential to cause travel issues and other problems. Shouldn't be a boring week around the Central US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS has about 72 hours straight of snow in Iowa (which would have to be some kind of record, plus it did the same thing one other time this year and it didn't pan out at all). Some areas switching from snow to freezing rain though. We'll have to watch for that potential development as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Then I see at the end of the period the Low looks to cut off in the Southwest then come back on a northeast path to the Central Plains. What a wild pattern. It would all pan out, but better than recent years for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 DVRboyNX0AAry6o.jpg No legend..what's that deeper pink shade knocking on my door?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 This big Dog bears watching. Bring it Ma Nature...looks sweet. Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 DMX morning disco had some pretty good wording on this:The big story toward the end of the period is a possible developingmainly east to west baroclinic zone setting up from northernMissouri to southern Minnesota for several days. With an activewave pattern still intact through the end of the period, both theGFS and the Euro models show a extended period of clouds and lightto moderate precipitation from Thursday through Sunday. The Euroseems a bit more realistic trying to separate wave energy andsubsequent precipitation into two distinct periods: one fromThursday night into Friday night and the second from Saturdaymorning through Sunday morning while the GFS more or less hascontinuous precipitation through the entire period. In either case,if this pattern is realized, this would be the snowiest period wehave seen in quite some time. Details on amounts and locations ofsnowfall will have to wait for now...but the signal for weak tomodest warm air advection into a persistent boundary bodes well formore clouds/higher PoP and generally more precipitation. There issome hint at enough warm air from time to time to cause a mix ofprecipitation type over the south Thursday into Friday. Highsthrough the period will be in the teens north to lower 30s south attimes with lows in the single digits above/below zero north and inthe single digits south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z UK hits northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois with the long-duration good baroclinic snowfall, weakens and suppresses the big weekend system. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 How are the snowfall maps lookin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 How are the snowfall maps lookin? As expected, the details are changing. In general, models this morning are less bullish are huge snow. The euro has gone from dumping on northern Iowa to gradually sagging lighter snow steadily south across the region. The GFS is now again the only model with a big weekend system. The euro has a second piece of energy passing east across Iowa, but it drops only modest snowfall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Dis what we been needin, eh Niko buddy? U betcha! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish Bite your tongue, its only February. Until mid March, I want cold and snowstorms. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Have a cold, not feeling well. They just plowed my road, Not looking forward for anymore snow. The way I feel now I am hopping any weekend system goes to my north or south or just does not develop. I know I am being selfish Not looking forward to moving that snow? Hire it done, and stay inside to recover..#solved PS - hope you get better asap Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 We need a phase for this to occur Sat-nite into Sun to have a major snowstorm and if that happens, oh MAMA, look out. Ton of snow will fall for some on this forum (that includes me). Even if no phase happens and we get the "Plains disturbance only" then, accumulating snows will occur, but, not as much. Very snowy weekend on tap. Lets see how all this plays out. Very busy weather week, that's for sure. Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Hoping to hit the slopes this weekend now that we've gotten back to winter and a decent covering of natural snow. Do you ski well? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gfs coming in stronger for the Sat system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 18z ICON hits Nebraska hard this weekend. That would be great it it verifies. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gfs looks pretty consistent. DMX said the ensembles are trending toward the op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020518&fh=138&r=us_mw&dpdt= Total snow through Sat 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS makes ptype an issue here for this system. I certainly want a sleet storm! Euro just says "screw you ungrateful bastards. You don't want sleet? Fine, I'll just give you nothing!" 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS makes ptype an issue here for this system. I certainly want a sleet storm! Euro just says "screw you ungrateful bastards. You don't want sleet? Fine, I'll just give you nothing!"Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2018 Report Share Posted February 5, 2018 Since when did the EURO give us nothing? Gives us plenty of snow up here lolGives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East. I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gives us the nuisance wave before but doesn't give us the main piece of energy. All that forms to our East. I see that wave does decent stuff for you. Gives us about 3". Meh. I want more if this is gonna be a legit storm for everyone else. It's our turn again. Lol dude, we still haven't had our turn. 3" from that blizzturd earlier shouldn't even count, we're not even at 10" yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Do you ski well? Since '79. I'm not pro level, just recreational Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 18z gfs has 18" by Sunday! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Icon hits WI pretty good with the first wave and is showing signs of the weekend system developing Gfs also coming north with the Thu wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Can we trust the ICON? Don’t know much about it. It just crushes Nebraska this weekend. We can dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Can we trust the ICON? Don’t know much about it. It just crushes Nebraska this weekend. We can dream.Gfs hits you guys good also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Icon hits WI pretty good with the first wave and is showing signs of the weekend system developing Gfs also coming north with the Thu waveNot really, similar placement to the 18 and 12z. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gfs hits you guys good alsoMight be a fun weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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