February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[GDR]

Ripping outside now with huge flakes

[Niko]

Approaching 2 inches and snowing at a pretty good clip. Indications are that some of the heavier bands moving more north than predicted earlier.

[gosaints]

Looks like as of 6AM ord had recorded exactly a .5 inch of QPF

[Tom]

Here in Grand Rapids at my house I am still getting light snow falling and taking my first measurement in several days I have 2.5" of new snow (taken on the driveway that was clear last night and now have a total of 8.7" on the ground here. 

Hope you get better WestMJim...enjoy the wintry weather from inside in a warm and cozy home!

 

Meantime, I'm seeing re-development across Kane/DuPage/Cook/Lake county....there is a inverted feature draped across the area overhead on the wunderground maps that is causing a lifting mechanism.  Could have an additional 1-2" on top of what has already fallen.

 

 

Starting to see a slight lake plume forming over Lake Michigan just east of MKE....winds are converging in SE WI and sliding into NE IL...may start seeing some slight Lehs within the next few hours.  Need temps to dip a bit more and become more northerly.

[Tom]

Some snow reports....it's conceivable some locals could approach the 10" mark by end of today...

 

 

 

[FV-Mike]

Right at 6" here and still snowing lightly. Pound town from 1 am to 7 am. 

[Tom]

This is awesome!  Snow bands just keep back filling across  Cook/Kane/DuPage/S Lake county...I think the lake may be influencing this development across NE IL.  If you look at the wind vectors you can see the convergence and the SLP spinning near Peoria, IL...

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.56,43.60,3000/loc=-88.650,42.064

[Tom]

12z NAM...more to come...through Sat am...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020912/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[FV-Mike]

This is awesome!  Snow bands just keep back filling across  Cook/Kane/DuPage/S Lake county...I think the lake may be influencing this development across NE IL.  If you look at the wind vectors you can see the convergence and the SLP spinning near Peoria, IL...

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.56,43.60,3000/loc=-88.650,42.064

just keeps rolling over the same area. O'Hare could do well over the next couple of hours

 

intensity is picking up here

[Tom]

just keeps rolling over the same area. O'Hare could do well over the next couple of hours

 

intensity is picking up here

Looking at the national radar map and the west/east fashion of the returns draped across NE/IA into IL look interesting and I'm starting to wonder if the 12z NAM is onto something.

[snowman1]

Another 0.6" since last measurement bringing my total just shy of 6" (5.9")....absolute pound town out there right now! Fattest flakes yet!

I measured 3" at 8am. This is mostly from this morning, had very little overnight. Still ripping right now and looks like we're going to be able to stay under this for awhile now.

 

Interesting that GFS was right on this transition to the weenie band over I80 in the early morning. Other models closer on the initial overnight push being north.

[westMJim]

I am going to go back to bed for a while. But before I do I will add that the snow falling here was light but in the last half hour it has picked up and is now moderate with larger flake size. So will now add up a little better temp is 18° here.

[WBadgersW]

Well UWM classes are canceled till noon, so I'm happy.

[Tony]

12z NAM...more to come...through Sat am...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020912/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Is this in addition to what has already fallen?

[Tabitha]

Periods of snow should continue here throughout the day...and the rapidly strengthening February sun should foment a bit of convective activity with those very cold heights...850's near -20 C...so the closer to noon; the heavier the snow...I would guess.

 

Exactly as I thought...what was pixie dust at daybreak has transitioned to decent sized dendrites.

 

The heating of the day buoys up the atmosphere in the same fashion a thunderstorm responds to daytime heating...convection & rising air.  T-storms always max out by late afternoon; while diminishing after sunset.

 

One need not look at a model to know the weather...simply consult & contemplate the basic precepts of Dynamic Meteorology 101.

[bud2380]

The Always Reliable NAM (should probably be renamed ARNAM) showing 6" for MBY tonight!  Guaranteed to happen!  

[bud2380]

The actually more reliable RGEM is showing over 5" as well. 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020906/033/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Tabitha]

Exactly as I thought...what was pixie dust at daybreak has transitioned to decent sized dendrites.

 

The heating of the day buoys up the atmosphere in the same fashion a thunderstorm responds to daytime heating...convection & rising air.  T-storms always max out by late afternoon; while diminishing after sunset.

 

One need not look at a model to know the weather...simply consult & contemplate the basic precepts of Dynamic Meteorology 101.

 

 

The dynamic I cite is even more pervasive where the terrain is undulating.

[Tabitha]

Is this in addition to what has already fallen?

 

If it says 12z; the model shows whatever falls after 12z.

 

12z is Greenwich Mean Time (London).  12z is Noon.  For the Midwest, subtract 6 hours (Central Time Zone).

 

In other words, it shows what will fall after 6 AM CST.

[Tony]

If it says 12z; the model shows whatever falls after 12z.

 

12z is Greenwich Mean Time (London).  12z is Noon.  For the Midwest, subtract 6 hours (Central Time Zone).

 

In other words, it shows what will fall after 6 AM CST.

I thought it was the 6z Nam...my mistake but thanks for the explanation.

[snowman1]

Good Lord, Detroit looks like all day Hammer Time. Enjoy Michigan folks!

[Hawkeye]

What an enormous bust of a system.  I got 1.8 inches from the main stuff yesterday, then the tail pretty much skipped over me.  We may have gotten a bit more, but my snowboards are still clean, perhaps due to the wind.  Some of the models are trying to push the next wave a bit farther southeast again, keeping me in the screw zone.  I may end up in the driest pocket anywhere in the region.

 

It looks like this system even underperformed a bit in northern Iowa.  There's one 11" report in Fort Dodge, but the rest are generally in the 5-7" range.  Terry Swails was the first local to move all the snow into the northern part of the area late yesterday, but he painted widespread 7-10 with isolated 12" along and north of Waterloo to Dubuque.  That was way too bullish as it ended up being 5-7 with no higher totals.

[Niko]

Currently @ 2.7" and coming down hard. Its going to be snowing all day here and into parts of the evening. Temp @ 16F.

[Tom]

12z NAM...grand total through Sunday...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020912/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

N Cook just keeps on the "Weenie Band" training...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180209.1454.gif

[gosaints]

how much has ORD reported

[hlcater]

Looks like I ended up in between 4 and 4.5. BBBBUUUUSSSSTTTTTT.

[Money]

Got about 3 here

[Tom]

LOT has just extended the Winter Storm Warning through 6:00pm. They had it ending this morning but latest guidance is suggesting the snow to continue throughout the day.

[Tom]

how much has ORD reported

Last measurement was 4.6" but that was around 5:00am I believe...

[Tabitha]

What an enormous bust of a system.  I got 1.8 inches from the main stuff yesterday, then the tail pretty much skipped over me.  

 

I remember a board member commenting on this possibility (likelihood); though her name escapes me at present...

[bud2380]

HRDPS from midnight total QPF.  It also shows a nice band coming through IC and CR area tonight.

 

 

[hlcater]

Looks like CR is riding the edge tonight too. For god sakes I’m sick of riding the edge. And with our luck this one will sag south with time as last event lifted north with time. There’s no winning over here.

[bud2380]

RGEM with 10" for Omaha???  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020912/030/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

RGEM with 10" for Omaha???  

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020912/030/snku_024h.us_mw.png

We would never have to here a certain omaha poster complain again.  the omadome would be blown up

[Tom]

An additional 0.7"...total 6.6" and counting...

[Tabitha]

One should never substitute modelology for meteorology.

 

The model is a tool; a device; not an end in itself.

 

Does this imply that I am opposed to utilization of numerical weather forecasting?  Absolutely not...the models are tremendously helpful in giving the forecaster a sense of the state of the atmosphere; both now and in the future.

 

However, one cannot become enthralled by the models; as a be - all and end - all.

 

One must consider their innate biases; in conjunction with the general climatology of the venue in question....along with the time of year and general global atmospheric conditions that might influence an outcome.

 

I commented several times on the absolute excellence of the Rapid City NWS for their adherence to meteorology above modelology; as they have time after time ignored absurdly over-inflated QPF computer print-outs and made extremely prudent forecasts based on the other considerations I have cited.

[Tabitha]

Always remember that if the model knew everything; then all the models would feature and predict the precise same outcomes.

 

The fact that wildly divergent outcomes amongst the models are the norm rather than the exception is direct evidence of their tragic and innate flaws.

[bud2380]

We would never have to here a certain omaha poster complain again.  the omadome would be blown up

I can honestly say, I'd rather Omaha get crushed and I get nothing, just so we can be done with all that crap for awhile.  

[Madtown]

^^^^^^^^this is what I have been saying for over a year....there is very little forecasting anymore, it's easy to blame a computer for a busted forecast.