February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[FarmerRick]

Always remember that if the model knew everything; then all the models would feature and predict the precise same outcomes.

 

The fact that wildly divergent outcomes amongst the models are the norm rather than the exception is direct evidence of their tragic and innate flaws.

 

You'd better get that logic and common sense right the hell out of here!!  This is no place for such talk... 

[Niko]

Nothing like having a delicious homemade breakfast at home during a major snowstorm. Cozy indeed. Currently @ 3.1". I can see some pretty heavy totals by later today.

[Tabitha]

You'd better get that logic and common sense right the hell out of here!!  This is no place for such talk... 

 

I know about one-trillionth of one percent of what there is to know in this Universe; so I have plenty to learn in the future, too.

 

[Tom]

Additional snow to come throughout the day...

 

[gosaints]

Has ORD reached warning criteria?

[james1976]

Im going with 5.9" for a total but not sure how I feel about that, lol. I'm kinda sandwiched between a 6.5 and 8.5 report. I have 5.6 on my patio table but the wind and compaction is a factor.
​Reality is I may have received a little over 6.
​
Here's my week:
​3.1 sun nite
1.7 tue nite
​0.3 wed nite
​5.9 last night
11" total for the week

Snow depth is solid 8-9
 

[Niko]

Radar showing some pretty intense banding to my west making a B-Line towards my area.

[gosaints]

Ah now I see ORD had 4.6 at 550 AM

[Yerf]

snow building back in. 6.9 here. drove into work and all the roads are completely covered. 

[bud2380]

GFS is much further south than the NAM and RGEM and HRDPS.  But it was also the furthest south with last night's wave and was way off.  

[gosaints]

The EURO seems to have done a nice job with QPF

[Tony]

GFS is much further south than the NAM and RGEM and HRDPS.  But it was also the furthest south with last night's wave and was way off.  

I think it is safe to say GFS was way too south with 1st wave

[gosaints]

I think it is safe to say GFS was way too south with 1st wave

And most models were drunk on QPF outside of 36 hours

[hlcater]

And most models were drunk on QPF outside of 36 hours

Even the HRRR was off by 5+” in a lot of places.

[bud2380]

ICON shifted south for tonight, but the GGEM is further north like the NAM and RGEM.  Euro was further north last night.  I'm definitely going to put the most stock in the Euro as it did a pretty good job with wave 1.  

[WBadgersW]

I'm pretty shocked UWM cancelled classes for all day. During our 18+" storm last year, it took them till noon to cancel all classes after 1pm. Must be cause its a Friday

[bud2380]

both the ICON and GGEM are showing a decent wave now Saturday night, looks like a 1-3/2-4" type event on those models.  

[Stacsh]

One county north of the WSW here.  We did well.  I'd guess around 5"   still snowing but ending soon.  Surprised with the morning update they didn't upgrade from a WWA.  Oh well.  Did better than expected.  NAM nailed the northern extent of the snow.  

[BLIZZARD09]

up to 7 inches here--very easy to measure

[Bryan1117]

12z NAM...more to come...through Sat am...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020912/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png

That even looks pretty good for East Central Nebraska... all things considered.

 

I went into this thing expecting nothing, however we might get another good coating of snow tonight, good enough for me... you guys and gals out east can have your double digit snowfall and the big mess afterwards when it melts to go with it.

[Tom]

Has ORD reached warning criteria?

5.9" at 9:00am...

[indianajohn]

I assume with this type of system LES is out of the question?

[Tom]

I assume with this type of system LES is out of the question?

Ya, inversion heights are not the greatest...given the fact its so late in the year and the lake is cold, we would need true arctic air nearby but we don't with this set up.  I'm not complaining...but, would could've been is another story...

[Tom]

It's crazy how this system is setting up now across IL where the southern burbs missed the overnight snow, but now seem to be experiencing a "training" effect of snow during the day to catch up on lost snows!

[snowman1]

Radar has filled back in all the way back to the QCA along I80. Wind has picked up tremendously in the last hour. Whiteout conditions being reported along I80 at Ladd/SV exit. This is a pic of I80 from my buddy who works for the city.

[Bryan1117]

We would never have to here a certain omaha poster complain again. the omadome would be blown up

Um... yeah... that’s not going to happen LOL (10+ inches of snow here). I would be plenty happy with 5”.

 

However I am all for blowing up the “Omadome.”

[Jaycee]

We would never have to here a certain omaha poster complain again.  the omadome would be blown up

 

Well, unfortunately the certain "Omaha" poster is in Lincoln (atleast I think). Gotta blow up both domes with those totals to see that, which we know won't happen :/

[Bryan1117]

What an enormous bust of a system. I got 1.8 inches from the main stuff yesterday, then the tail pretty much skipped over me. We may have gotten a bit more, but my snowboards are still clean, perhaps due to the wind. Some of the models are trying to push the next wave a bit farther southeast again, keeping me in the screw zone. I may end up in the driest pocket anywhere in the region.

 

It looks like this system even underperformed a bit in northern Iowa. There's one 11" report in Fort Dodge, but the rest are generally in the 5-7" range. Terry Swails was the first local to move all the snow into the northern part of the area late yesterday, but he painted widespread 7-10 with isolated 12" along and north of Waterloo to Dubuque. That was way too bullish as it ended up being 5-7 with no higher totals.

This has definitely been the story of this Winter... either you are cashing in with good snows, or getting next to nothing. Heck that’s been the story for 3 years running now.

 

Oh well though, I feel your pain... you win some with Ma Nature and then you lose some too... someday our “losing streak” has to end.

[Tom]

Radar has filled back in all the way back to the QCA along I80. Wind has picked up tremendously in the last hour. Whiteout conditions being reported along I80 at Ladd/SV exit. This is a pic of I80 from my buddy who works for the city.

Those returns look amazing...you guys are making up quick!

[FV-Mike]

This band is really producing. Big flakes and coming down hard atm

[Tony]

This band is really producing. Big flakes and coming down hard atm

Wish this would keep up all day

[gosaints]

Those returns look amazing...you guys are making up quick!

How are temps looking in the extended for PHOENIX?? you know there climo better than I

[Hawkeye]

Looks like I ended up in between 4 and 4.5. BBBBUUUUSSSSTTTTTT.

 

How the heck did you get 4+ inches?  Heck, there's even a 3.2 inch spotter report from just west of me in Cedar Rapids, and 2.7 at KCRG downtown.  How?!?!?!?  I have no choice but to record 1.8 here from 0.18" liquid.

[hlcater]

How the heck did you get 4+ inches? Heck, there's even a 3.2 inch spotter report from just west of me in Cedar Rapids. How?!?!?!?

No idea. I took 3 measurements and averaged them. They were 3.8” 4.5” and 4.4.” As I said last night, I was already at 3+ inches before that band departed. It really dumped on me for awhile.

 

There’s actually a lot of 4+ reports in central and northern Linn. Still fell well short of the universally expected 6-8” but still.

[Tom]

How are temps looking in the extended for PHOENIX?? you know there climo better than I

There is a system that cut's off next week in the SW that may bring cooler temps and showers late next week into the weekend but then I see temps rebound AN the week of the 18th.  Your going to have a great time.

[Niko]

Currently @ 3.6" and snowing moderately. Radar is loaded to my west w hvy banding building up.

[Hawkeye]

No idea. I took 3 measurements and averaged them. They were 3.8” 4.5” and 4.4.” As I said last night, I was already at 3+ inches before that band departed. It really dumped on me for awhile.

 

There’s actually a lot of 4+ reports in central and northern Linn. Still fell well short of the universally expected 6-8” but still.

 

The problem is it's impossible to measure.  It's clear in my yard that snow that was already on the ground following the afternoon/evening wave was scoured away.  That's probably where half the pavement drifts this morning came from, not from any overnight snowfall.  The two snow boards I cleaned last night are still clean, and the big snowboard I left the 1.8 inches on only had 1.0 inches this morning.  Also, I can't stick a ruler into the snow in the yard because there was already snow on the ground before this storm.  Everything about this storm was a CF.

[hlcater]

The problem is it's impossible to measure. It's clear in my yard that snow that was already on the ground, from the previous clipper , was scoured away. That's probably where half the pavement drifts came from, not from this storm. The two snow boards I cleaned last night are still clean, and the big snowboard I left the 1.8 inches on only had 1.0 inches this morning.

I was thinking about previous snow, but all the other 4” reports north of CR reinforced my decision to just go with. 4-4.5.

[Jaycee]

[Yerf]

I'm right in the middle of this