February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=135

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS, CMC, and ICON look remarkably similar for this weekend, just differences in amounts.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020600&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=135

A tad weaker but overall consistent. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM is getting on the hype train for the initial band too. Glad to see CMC is finally showing a storm. Only stick in the mud for us is Euro.

[OKwx2k4]

What is this snow you speak of?

[james1976]

6z looks weak

[Tom]

6z looks weak

Really???  I'd say this is solid for many of us on here....

[Tom]

00z Euro...deduct about .25qpf near chicago from the recent system and the one coming later tonight....same goes for parts of IN/MI...

 

 

[Madtown]

.5ish looks good around here!

[Snowshoe]

Just a hair or 2 north and i'll be happy. Hoping to get our snowmobile trails open this weekend!

00z Euro...deduct about .25qpf near chicago from the recent system and the one coming later tonight....same goes for parts of IN/MI...

[Tony]

6z looks weak

One mans junk is another mans treasure as they say. I would take this in a heartbeat and run!

[Niko]

Snow starts Thurs pm and lasts most of Friday. Nice!

[Minny_Weather]

06Z GFS is about as share the wealth as one can hope to get.

[Tom]

This system is trending towards a multiple wave, multi-day snow system which I tend to enjoy a lot more, esp bc you can get it to snow with varying intensities for such a long duration.  For that reason, I changed the start date to the 8th (Thu) since snows will begin to break out later Thursday across the high plains/MW.  It will feel like your living in the mountains or lake belts keeping the snow removal peeps quite busy!

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS are showing an uptick in some heft members across the MW/GL's region....

[Tom]

12z NAM...through 6:00pm Friday and its still snowing across N IA/N IL/S WI into S MI...

[jaster220]

00z Euro...deduct about .25qpf near chicago from the recent system and the one coming later tonight....same goes for parts of IN/MI...

 

Still a h*lluva moist look across SMI Wowza.  Some serious flake stackage gonna happen thru this region. Can't wait! 

[Tony]

12z NAM...through 6:00pm Friday and its still snowing across N IA/N IL/S WI into S MI...

This could be quite the weekend that we have been looking for all winter long. All models in agreement with a prolonged period of accumulating snow. Welcome to winter!

[FV-Mike]

Tom, good call on the active start to February. This has/will be a fun week

[Tom]

This could be quite the weekend that we have been looking for all winter long. All models in agreement with a prolonged period of accumulating snow. Welcome to winter!

I'm ready buddy!  Plus, a bonus set-up may be the Lehs which would add totals even farther.  I took a glance at the Euro and GFS for comparison and both of them are agreeing at a ENE flow off the lake with cold 850's.

[Tony]

Tom, good call on the active start to February. This has/will be a fun week

I second that...I pretty much had given up on any relevant snow, at least for my area. It's amazing how fast things can change in a matter of a couple runs.

[jaster220]

I'm ready buddy!  Plus, a bonus set-up may be the Lehs which would add totals even farther.  I took a glance at the Euro and GFS for comparison and both of them are agreeing at a ENE flow off the lake with cold 850's.

 

I second that...I pretty much had given up on any relevant snow, at least for my area. It's amazing how fast things can change in a matter of a couple runs.

 

The big lake's gonna chip in and Chicago should be primed for a PILE of the white gold!  Enjoy this!

[Tom]

Tom, good call on the active start to February. This has/will be a fun week

Thank you.  I know it was a bold prediction and I'm sure there were peeps on here scratching their heads a bit.  I'll be honest, this is turning into more than I was expecting it to be, esp when you look out into Week 2, which is now trending towards a repeat of what Week 1 of Feb is turning out to be.  I don't want to get ahead of myself, so lets enjoy this first week!

[Madtown]

would like to be on the southern end of this instead of the northern end, but man looks like some good times. Thunking mihhy get a break Fri mid day to get to mke and back.

[james1976]

Really??? I'd say this is solid for many of us on here....

Whoa.....my mistake there. Just watched the op loop and it didnt look impressive. Hadnt seen snowfall maps.

[bud2380]

here is the 12z NAM, shifted a bit further north from the 6z run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020612/084/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

ICON favors northern Iowa and S Wisconsin

 

[Snowlover76]

why are we looking at the long range NAM?

[james1976]

Yeah def a spread the wealth set up.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM looks pretty warm biased in the upper levels as the wave approaches us. May be something to think about. It slows it down in addition to it being North. Just starts to hit us @ 84.

[bud2380]

Pivotal needs a 48 hour snow map for this storm.  The duration is so long you can't post a proper map.  They do have  48 hour qpf map though, so that might be the best way to tell, then add in 15:1 or so ratios.  

[Minny_Weather]

NAM looks pretty warm biased in the upper levels as the wave approaches us. May be something to think about. It slows it down in addition to it being North. Just starts to hit us @ 84.

GFS is North too. Not sure if I should like that or not. Definitely gives us buffer room for a South trend.

[Tom]

D**n, 12z GFS trending towards a big secondary wave on Sat for a lot of us. Nice 1st wave across IA/N IL/N IN/S MI.

[GDR]

why are we looking at the long range NAM?

true that! Nam sucked last snow..

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS favoring southeast Nebraska through southern Iowa and northern Illinois.

 

This is still a tricky event.  With the narrow nature of the e-w band, some of us could get dumped on while others only get a few inches.

[bud2380]

If the GFS is right, we are going to be very happy campers across a good chunk of the sub forum.  

[GDR]

Like the gfs

[bud2380]

shave off 1-3" on the southern edge of this for the snow expected tonight, and otherwise this is snow from Thursday night through Sunday AM.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020612/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Hawkeye]

It's too bad this whole mess couldn't finish with a real biggie instead of the stretched out energy.

[Tom]

12z GFS from the 1st piece...

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is North too. Not sure if I should like that or not. Definitely gives us buffer room for a South trend.

Okay the main wave isn't that much different. Maybe even South. Just talking about the initial one.