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February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

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#101
bud2380

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:18 AM

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This is the UK through only 6am Friday, so not even the heaviest bands yet and still impressive qpf.

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif


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#102
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:19 AM

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12z GEFS about as share the wealth as we have seen all season.  Of note, lake enhancement being picked up along the WI/IL border...to see an ensemble spitting out .50-.75 qpf this far out is incredibly juiced, esp the .75-1.00" qpf near the lake.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_21.png


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#103
NH4NU

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:24 AM

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With this pattern and current indications, I am feeling oddly confident with 6”+ for eastern Neb this weekend.

#104
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:29 AM

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12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust.  Remember, this includes the midweek snow as well.

 

Attached File  UK_12zFeb06.png   207.02KB   4 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#105
bud2380

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:31 AM

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12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust.

 

attachicon.gifUK_12zFeb06.png

yes please.  


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#106
Money

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:32 AM

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IA/IL/NE in a great spot

#107
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:33 AM

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GFS is extremely bullish on the weekend major snowstorm. Snow for much of the area from Thurs nite through Sun. Dang! Get those snowblowers/shovels ready once again.

 

Euro and GEM even better for SWMI

 

Comparison:

 

GFS top, Euro btm

 

Attached File  20180206 12z GFS n Euro thru weekend.png   366.41KB   3 downloads

 

GEM

 

Attached File  20180206 12z GEM thru weekend.png   212.16KB   1 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#108
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 09:39 AM

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Euro and GEM even better for SWMI

 

Comparison:

 

GFS top, Euro btm

 

attachicon.gif20180206 12z GFS n Euro thru weekend.png

 

GEM

 

attachicon.gif20180206 12z GEM thru weekend.png

Take your pick :lol:. Gotta like the Euro though....crushes the area.



#109
gosaints

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:09 AM

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Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right?
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#110
Sciascia

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:14 AM

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Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right?


The Nero Storm.
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...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...


#111
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Euro is still aimed farther north with the first significant wave.... from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois.  N IL gets through S MI gets nailed.

 

I hope this can sink south to where the other models are

 

.Attached File  ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_84.png   247.99KB   1 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#112
GDR

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:23 AM

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Euro needs to play catch up

#113
Snowlover76

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:24 AM

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What's the euro showing here

#114
hlcater

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much,

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#115
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:39 AM

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Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much,

 

I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks.  The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

Attached File  euro_12zFeb06.png   254.37KB   6 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#116
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

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I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks.  The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

attachicon.gifeuro_12zFeb06.png

Assuming the phase occurs. If it does, then, it will snow hard. Map makes sense for a phase to be taking place.



#117
Sciascia

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:44 AM

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I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp.

12z euro total through weekend...

euro_12zFeb06.png

What kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher?

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...


#118
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:48 AM

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John Dee talking 8+ for the first wave Thurs/Thurs night!

#119
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:49 AM

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What kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher?

 

I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Euro is still meh. Further North too. What an a** that model has been to us.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#121
Sciascia

Posted 06 February 2018 - 10:56 AM

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I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again.

We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...


#122
hlcater

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Ratios statistically have a hard time panning out. However, ratios have been good to us for all but one event this year, and even then they were only down 2-3:1.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#123
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:02 AM

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Ratios statistically have a hard time panning out. However, ratios have been good to us for all but one event this year, and even then they were only down 2-3:1.

Change the years in your signature. It says 2016-17 still.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#124
Iowawx

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:07 AM

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I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks.  The southern edge could be sharp.

 

12z euro total through weekend...

 

attachicon.gifeuro_12zFeb06.png

What time would this snow begin on Thursday in Cedar Rapids?



#125
FV-Mike

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:10 AM

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Lot of consistency for the ChiTown, SWI, Mich areas. starting to get a bit excited


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#126
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:17 AM

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ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_132.thumb.pn


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#127
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:22 AM

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Accu-weather has my area from Thurs evening to Fri evening for 8-12inches. Sweet! :D


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#128
BrianJK

Posted 06 February 2018 - 11:39 AM

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We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend.

 

Yep - that d**n pixie dust doesn't stack up well



#129
GDR

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:06 PM

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Attached File  42684462-7619-47AD-8073-6F595299520A.png   158.14KB   0 downloads

#130
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:13 PM

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Further east GDR?

#131
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:17 PM

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What time would this snow begin on Thursday in Cedar Rapids?

 

Current model runs are showing late afternoon Thursday, wherever the band is aimed.  The euro is north, so the band doesn't sag down into CR until before sunrise Friday.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#132
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:17 PM

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I just looked at the 12z Euro's wind profiles and they have an easterly flow for 30-36 hours into SE WI/NE IL.  About as perfect as it can get on a model run.  However, 850's oscillate from the start time roughly -8C and cool towards -12C, then warm again up to -5C, of which, they cool back down past -10C.  With that being said, thermals won't be the most ideal but I've seen this type of set up once before in my lifetime and given the cold ground temps, relatively warm and ice free Lake Michigan, this set up should be favorable for Lehs. 

 

Woah, just took a glance at the 12z EPS/Control and this is about as locked and loaded for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI as one can ask for.  Chitown, this is probably going to mirror something close to the Dec 31st - Jan 2nd, 2014 system.  Near perfect pivot of both waves of energy are looking more probable at the moment.

 

It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second!  #Mindblown

 

 


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#133
Hawkeye

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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One thing of note regarding the Euro.  We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday.  Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids.  The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids.  The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#134
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:23 PM

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what's the ratios on those maps?

#135
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:27 PM

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what's the ratios on those maps?

10:1 



#136
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:31 PM

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Wowzers....heres hoping this doesn't sag south anymore, but looks like fun!

#137
Money

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:32 PM

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Just need like a 30 mile shift north

#138
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:36 PM

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what's the ratios on those maps?

 

10:1 

 

Euro's the new NAM this winter  :lol:

 

Iiuc, this would be Kuchera or some similar algorithm:

 

Attached File  20180206 12z Euro 120 hr Snow Kuchera.png   195.26KB   5 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#139
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:37 PM

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Just need like a 30 mile shift north

 

Verbatim, I can tolerate a 60 mile shift N or S. This feels a lot like Feb 2015


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#140
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:39 PM

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Tom said: "It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second!  #Mindblown"

 

Opens the door for GRR to issue 3 days worth of WWA's (awwta cover it, lol)


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#141
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 12:43 PM

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Euro's the new NAM this winter :lol:

Iiuc, this would be Kuchera or some similar algorithm:



20180206 12z Euro 120 hr Snow Kuchera.png


These are the maps I’m used to seeing back in ‘13-‘14 my friend! I like the blip of 16” in Lake county as it gives me a signal the lehs potential is legit.
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#142
Tom

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:02 PM

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18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#143
Tony

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:09 PM

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18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

All models are juiced for this wave.



#144
Niko

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Flashbacks of 13-14' are coming back.



#145
jaster220

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:15 PM

jaster220

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One thing of note regarding the Euro.  We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday.  Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids.  The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids.  The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids.

 

18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Prolly ends up that the Euro is again just a bit far north (if the NAM is south already), thus an IN Toll Rd special appears to be on tap. Surprised how low-key IWX's afd was about this period.. :huh:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#146
Madtown

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:16 PM

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13/14 was all south up this way...as well. Mke is going all south 1-2" with wave one, northern fringe for wave 2 won't give amounts

#147
BrianJK

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:25 PM

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18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

All models are juiced for this wave.

 

ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board.  Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.



#148
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:30 PM

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ICON is really juiced on the 2nd wave for Nebraska through 81 hours.



#149
FV-Mike

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

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ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board.  Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.

 

Non event, in what sense? no storm or a freakish shift? 



#150
Tony

Posted 06 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

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ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board.  Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.

These maps do not apply for Emhurst...sorry.