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The Presidents Day Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 04:38 AM

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A very complex and multi faceted system will develop across the central Plains late on Sunday creating an extreme temp gradient from CO east into the GL's region.  This gradient pattern coupled with GOM moisture will feed into this system creating a potpourri of precip from snow, heavy rain, ice potential and possible thunderstorms.  Let's discuss....

 

00z Euro took a step towards the GFS and is targeting the MSP region up through N WI/U.P with snow.

 

 

00z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#2
CentralNebWeather

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:06 AM

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NWS Hastings mentions a possible significant freezing drizzle threat Sunday Night-Monday Morning but holding off on headlines yet.  Give us dry and windy instead of that stuff.  Yuk.  



#3
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 February 2018 - 08:55 AM

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12z runs still looking good here. Although there has been a northern trend over the last day. We’ll see if that continues.

Attached Files



#4
hlcater

Posted 15 February 2018 - 09:20 AM

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I'm definitely getting a severe wx vibe from this system. Not in my area, but the OV, MO and OK may have some stuff to look out for. The combo of CAPE and hodograph curvature seems best over eastern OK, but I could see a squall line, non zero QLCS tornado threat further NE. OK is definitely an unusual spot to have 60s dews this time of year, but as of right now, looks to be the best spot for any supercell activity.
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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

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12z Euro for MN

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#6
Madtown

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:24 PM

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She's a beaut Clark!
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#7
jaster220

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:24 PM

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18z NAM still likes us for some SN Sunday?

 

Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_43.png   160.44KB   0 downloads


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 16"  Largest Storm: 4.5" (11/26)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 0.8 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = ~49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#8
Tabitha

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:56 PM

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She's a beaut Clark!

 

OK Eddie...

 

Though I think they lived in Kansas...

 

___________________

 

Eddie: You know Clark; the bank's been after me like flies on a rib roast...

 

Eddie's wife: Now Eddie; Clark and Ellen don't want to hear about our problems..

 

Clark: No, no...its very interesting...

 

Aunt Edna: Why don't you just ask him for the money Eddie...sure as hell can't take a hint

 

Eddie: Well Clark...could you maybe spare a little bit?

 

Clark: Sure Eddie...how much you need? <Opens wallet>

 

Eddie: About $52,000.

 

<Clark closes wallet>


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#9
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 February 2018 - 02:15 PM

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18z GFS increased snow totals a bit but overall no major changes. Interesting how MPX is not very excited. They mention several rounds of light snow but no major storm.

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#10
Stormgeek

Posted 15 February 2018 - 02:16 PM

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For what it is worth, the 18z GFS is a MN special. Snow nearly border to border with 6+ from north of Duluth to down by Rochester.

Edit: Looks like St. Paul Storm beat me to this!



#11
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 February 2018 - 03:05 PM

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Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#12
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 February 2018 - 04:46 PM

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Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.

Id rather have rain too. Anything is better then a dry slot.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#13
centralweather44

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:12 PM

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Looks like the most we'll get from this may be freezing drizzle Monday. God I hope not. I'd rather have cold rain.


Haven’t had a chance to look at maps or pull them up. What are the chances of the freezing rain. Significant?

#14
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:29 PM

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Haven’t had a chance to look at maps or pull them up. What are the chances of the freezing rain. Significant?

Enough to cause a nuisance but we'll get the dry slot before it becomes historic or anything. Like below 0.1".


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#15
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 February 2018 - 07:20 PM

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NAM looks a little more robust with the frozen precip

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#16
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 February 2018 - 07:49 PM

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NAM looks a little more robust with the frozen precip

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

NAM has had a moist bias all Winter so I'm not surprised.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#17
gosaints

Posted 15 February 2018 - 07:53 PM

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NAM has had a moist bias all Winter so I'm not surprised.


You mean since it's inception.
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#18
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 05:13 AM

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Well this quickly turned into a low-end event. As this trends father north it’s keeping the warmer air father north as well. Looks like freezing rain is a decent bet here followed by a few inches of snow.

#19
Tom

Posted 16 February 2018 - 05:22 AM

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Well this quickly turned into a low-end event. As this trends father north it’s keeping the warmer air father north as well. Looks like freezing rain is a decent bet here followed by a few inches of snow.

00z EPS not to crazy on the snowfall amounts...looks like a 3" mean for MSP...more the farther N/NE you go...

 

On the flip side, I sure hope the Euro is wrong with the placement of the frontal boundary bc its pumping out 2-4" rains down here...to top it off, it has some light snow on the tail end...#bipolarwx


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#20
Snowshoe

Posted 16 February 2018 - 06:23 AM

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Been pretty consistent painting a narrow stripe of frz rain.

zr_acc.us_mw.png


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#21
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:19 AM

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00z EPS not to crazy on the snowfall amounts...looks like a 3" mean for MSP...more the farther N/NE you go...

On the flip side, I sure hope the Euro is wrong with the placement of the frontal boundary bc its pumping out 2-4" rains down here...to top it off, it has some light snow on the tail end...#bipolarwx

Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.

#22
NEJeremy

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:21 AM

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She's a beaut Clark!

Cousin Eddy? :P


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#23
Snowshoe

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:48 AM

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Melted quick.

 

Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.

 

SnowDpt_wi.png


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#24
Stacsh

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

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Near 50 degree temperature difference in Iowa Monday on GFS.   :o


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#25
Tom

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Would be some historic flooding if those rains verified. How much snow is left OTG there after the warmth the last few days? A coworker in Lisle said she had 18” earlier this week and it’s down to around 4-5”. That’s an impressive melt.


1-2” at best over here. All crust now with the colder temps. If those rainfall totals pan out local rivers are gonna flood.
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#26
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:57 AM

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12z models bouncing all over the place. Trying to figure out the thermal profiles is going to take up until the start of the event most likely. GEM (7-9”) brings the heavier snow back down to MSP while the GFS is stepping down the snow totals (4-5”). Either way, some wintry weather coming back. I’ll take it.
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#27
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 09:04 AM

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12z models bouncing all over the place. Trying to figure out the thermal profiles is going to take up until the start of the event most likely. GEM (7-9”) brings the heavier snow back down to MSP while the GFS is stepping down the snow totals (4-5”). Either way, some wintry weather coming back. I’ll take it.

 

What a mess the 12z Suite was!

 

The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.

 

Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.



#28
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 10:57 AM

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What a mess the 12z Suite was!
 
The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.
 
Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.


You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

#29
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 12:05 PM

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You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

12z EC has about 0.8 LE...from Sunday through Tuesday...long duration event.

 

Since the ratios are always good here...that could be a lot of snow.

 

By Saturday, the models should sort of form a better consensus.

 

Five years ago, the Euro was a lock in that 48 -72 hour range; then they "upgraded it"...which really seems quite the opposite...and it has had its problems...still better than any of the others; but not quite as good as it once was...or so it seems to my subjective eye.

 

If it ain't broke; don't fix it!



#30
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 12:23 PM

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You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

 

Duluth with just 11.3" of snow since January 1st (2.2" for February)

 

International Falls with just 10.5" of snow since January 1st (1.2" for February)



#31
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

#32
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

 

I was just going to note that..at least 50 - 75 mile shift south...as it gets a drop closer to its range.

 

Close to useless outside of 48 hours.



#33
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Right on cue the always dependable 18z NAM spreads snow quite a bit south of previous runs.

 

 

It would be kind of odd for Minneapolis to be "too far south" for an average February snowstorm; would it not?

 

They are at 45 N...or a latitude about 220 miles north of Chicago's.

 

You know your area better than I do...



#34
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:10 PM

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It would be kind of odd for Minneapolis to be "too far south" for an average February snowstorm; would it not?
 
You know your area better than I do...


Very rare. In fact it’s almost a lock that Minneapolis is way too far north to get a good snowstorm in mid-February. We don’t get much snow here in Feb. We typically get rocked in March as the ‘zone’ swings back to the north.

#35
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 01:39 PM

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What a mess the 12z Suite was!

 

The 12z NAM had this thing halfway to Manitoba...obviously well outside its range.

 

Amazing lack on consensus inside 60 hrs.

 

 

Lol at the 18z ICON / German...the system half dies after leaving South Dakota.



#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 16 February 2018 - 02:17 PM

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Contrast the 18z ICON with the GFS which now shows +8” totals even south of the TC metro. So there’s that.

#37
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 02:19 PM

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Contrast the 18z ICON with the GFS which now shows +8” totals even south of the TC metro. So there’s that.

 

 

The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.

 

Nevertheless, I would still trust it over that "ICON"...lolz.

 

Sooo aptly named.



#38
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 02:25 PM

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The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.

 

Nevertheless, I would still trust it over that "ICON"...lolz.

 

Sooo aptly named.

 

Better the Devil you know than the Devil you don't!



#39
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 05:52 PM

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21z SREF's had a wide range of outcomes for down in the Rapid City...anywhere between 6 & 22 inches.

 

Actually that is way out east at the airport...which is at a lower elevation relative to the town and about 12 miles to the east of downtown.



#40
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 06:59 PM

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You’re going to do well with this storm out there. A South Dakota to Duluth special. I feared this might go too far north from the start.

 

The 0z NAM was too far N&W for Duluth.

 

By 6z it will be in Churchill, Manitoba...

 

Then at 12z it will have a blizzard in St Louis...

 

I remember that song; "Meet Me in St Louis"

 

Catchy tune...



#41
james1976

Posted 16 February 2018 - 07:32 PM

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Des Moines NWS talking significant ice event 'possible' for north of highway 20 so I guess I better keep up on this. Been a while since an ice storm. Looks windy too so power outtages on the table if enough ice accumulates.



#42
Money

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:29 PM

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Gfs with quite the ice storm for WI

Temps in the 26-28 range also

GEM is warmer and mostly rain

#43
Money

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:38 PM

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GFS

Ice

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Snow

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 February 2018 - 09:49 PM

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21z SREF's had a wide range of outcomes for down in the Rapid City...anywhere between 6 & 22 inches.

Actually that is way out east at the airport...which is at a lower elevation relative to the town and about 12 miles to the east of downtown.


This will end up doing pretty well for you. What's your depth at right now?

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#45
Tabitha

Posted 16 February 2018 - 10:51 PM

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This will end up doing pretty well for you. What's your depth at right now?

 

Well, you know what they say about the Depth of Shallowness...

 

Maybe not; that presupposes that you watch Daria...which is highly unlikely.



#46
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 February 2018 - 04:45 AM

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Right now MPX going with a quick 1” of snow this morning followed by 2-4” and up to 0.04” of ice accretion in the metro on Sunday into Monday. Says power outages are possible. Going to be tough to figure out where the warm layer aloft will reside. This has bust or pleasant surprise written all over it. Won’t know which one until the event unfolds.

#47
Tom

Posted 17 February 2018 - 04:48 AM

Tom

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00z Euro with sig rains...I think this is a preview of where we are heading towards Spring...very similar to last year's Spring...

 

DWPOS_0XcAE3FCu.jpg



#48
WBadgersW

Posted 17 February 2018 - 05:35 AM

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Oh wow. I have not been following the ice potential with this storm.

#49
Money

Posted 17 February 2018 - 08:02 AM

Money

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Gfs increased the ice threat even more

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Gem is still way warmer tho

#50
Madtown

Posted 17 February 2018 - 08:21 AM

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ah .54 of ice...no thank u