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The Presidents Day Storm


Tom

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Driving to downtown tomorrow should be fun. This is a great time to have 3 tests in 2 days. Just enough ice to make roads bad, but not enough to make this a high publicity event, so there will be an increased number of people driving like morons on icy roads.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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There are big differences between the GFS and Euro with regard to qpf.  The euro has consistently shown about 2" precip here, while the 12z GFS is down to

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Maybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw.
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Maybe their thinking the warm front will have a hard time making its way north up your way. Might even stay South of Chicago with a NE wind off the lake but that's just a guess. Will need to keep an eye on the short term models for better placement of the front tomorriw.

I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas

 

Tough forecast either way tho

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I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas

 

Tough forecast either way tho

Yep, better to be safe especially on a work day when there is more traffic
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I guess another factor could be that ground temps are still pretty cold and even though surface temps might only be 33-35 it will still freeze on surface areas

Tough forecast either way tho

This. Even liquid falling into surface temps a few degrees above freezing is going to freeze on contact.

 

Yep, better to be safe especially on a work day when there is more traffic

Tomorrow is a holiday so less people on the roads.

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Yeah I’ve never been through an ice storm so don’t know really what to expect lol

it's terrible. You don't want to experience one, trust me on that. E IA had a really bad one in like 2009, but hasnt had much in the way of FZR since. I'd very much like to keep it that way.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Moderate snow at 1:25 PM.  Not so much blowing snow at the moment as the wind has slackened considerably.

 

Temp 19 F.

 

Moderate snow; blowing snow @ 2:25 PM...visibility about 1/4 mile (though it did seem to be falling in the last 10 minutes).

 

Winds have picked up out of the NE again; gusting over 25 mph. 

 

Temp 15 F.

 

Going out to move my refuse can in; it looked like there were some 5 inch drifts; though the amount of new snow probably considerably less.

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it's terrible. You don't want to experience one, trust me on that. E IA had a really bad one in like 2009, but hasnt had much in the way of FZR since. I'd very much like to keep it that way.

We lucked out in the big one we had last year. It ended up getting to 33° about halfway into the event, so it stayed liquid after that and we ended up with only 0.3" at UNL. Could have been way worse.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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DMX disco- 

 

Bottom Line Up Front...
Forecast confidence only medium, medium-high for Tomorrow night
through Tuesday. If going forecast pans out, impacts could be
serious across the central to SE portion of Iowa, including the Des
Moines metro. Rest of the week quiet until next Friday or so.

 

In all, Tuesday morning
commute around the Des Moines metro to Ames will really have to be
watched. There could be well over 0.1 inches of ice already
accumulated before sunrise, making travel potentially very hazardous.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Moderate snow; blowing snow @ 2:25 PM...visibility about 1/4 mile (though it did seem to be falling in the last 10 minutes).

 

Winds have picked up out of the NE again; gusting over 25 mph. 

 

Temp 15 F.

 

Going out to move my refuse can in; it looked like there were some 5 inch drifts; though the amount of new snow probably considerably less.

 

Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM.

 

I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile.

 

Temp 13 F.

 

The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm.

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Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM.

 

I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile.

 

Temp 13 F.

 

The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm.

Sounds like it's going to be fun.

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The biggest ice storm I have seen was the one that started on March 2nd 1976

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/03/what_did_the_historic_1976_ice.html

Here is some video from Saginaw

http://wfgr.com/the-great-ice-storm-of-1976-was-41-years-ago-this-week-video/

 

Still can remember the sound of trees cracking and falling from the ice. 

 

The breaking trees I remember from the New Years Eve '85 ice storm that was much worse in Flint and Genesee Cnty (Tri-cities got a nice snowstorm). The March '76 storm I remember for the amount of ice on the dead-end portion of my parent's street (3/4 - 1"?) as I had new hockey skates and was able to comfortably skate without risk to my blades and it was clear pure ice, no sleet or anything contaminating it. 60's til the 80's was really prime time for SMI historic winter events! Younger peeps think I'm exaggerating when I say that my youth years were legendary, but the facts back it up!  ;)  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Was continuing to snow at 3:30 PM.

 

I'd call it moderate to heavy snow with visibility around 1/4th of a mile.

 

Temp 13 F.

 

The SREF plumes at 15z were printing out a mean of about 18.6" down at the Rapid City Airport...with a high of 28.8"; so you know it is going to be a big storm.

 

I would say there was about 3.4" new snow here as of 5:35 PM.

 

Since it has been snowing for about 6 1/2 hours; the average rate is about 1/2 inch per hour.

 

Temp is now down to 9 F and it is quite chilly at twilight.

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