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2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#1
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:19 AM

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As we enter the final stretch of met Winter, who's ready for Spring???  I'm sure there are a few on here itching for spring time thunderstorms, warm sunny days...but will this year be a fast start to Spring or delayed???  The latest data coming in is suggesting a slow start to Spring the farther west you are in our sub forum.  Polar Blocking and the PV Split is conducive for a delayed start to Spring which may delay the chances for severe weather depending on how much influence the blocking will have on the storm track in March.

Let's dive in and discuss....

 

 

Here is the latest temp/precip outlooks from the CFSv2...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201803.gif

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201803.gif

 

 

I really like the wet look out in the Plains and 4 corners which would certainly be a site for sore eyes for those out there who have been very dry this winter.  Just like last year, I believe the blocking and the slowing of the jet stream will allow for storm systems to slow down and deliver moisture where they need it most.

 

 

 

 



#2
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:27 AM

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Both the NMME/CanSIPS model show a rather bad scenario across the central Plains that would exasperate the drought...

 

 

NMME...

 

nmme_T2maMean_month_us_1.png

 

nmme_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

 

 

 

 

 

CanSIPS...

 

cansips_T2maMean_month_us_2.png

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_2.png



#3
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:30 AM

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JMA seasonal has a similar idea for March and April...although, the western trough is stronger in March with a warm eastern 2/3rds of the nation...

 

 

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#4
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:31 AM

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Finally, we have the latest JAMSTEC run...

 

temp2.glob.MAM2018.1feb2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.MAM2018.1feb2018.gif



#5
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:32 AM

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FWIW, most analogs suggest that after a cool/wet Spring, Summer turns hot and dry which is something most climate models are showing for Summer.  For instance, the JAMSTEC has a widespread hot/dry summer...

 

 

temp2.glob.JJA2018.1feb2018.gif

 

 

 

tprep.glob.JJA2018.1feb2018.gif



#6
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:35 AM

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It sucks but I'm probably going to be moving on to this thread over the next few weeks. With the exception of one last holdout for a significant March cold wave, I'm moving on to spring. My early takes on spring, long and turbulent storm season and long hot miserable summer over the center of the country. It sucks but I'm going to check my mower out here in a week too. It seems like that thing has had 3 10+ month long growing seasons in a row. I just hate that I agree with the models to a T. Makes me want to leave Oklahoma til November. Lol.
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#7
Tom

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:41 AM

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It sucks but I'm probably going to be moving on to this thread over the next few weeks. With the exception of one last holdout for a significant March cold wave, I'm moving on to spring. My early takes on spring, long and turbulent storm season and long hot miserable summer over the center of the country. It sucks but I'm going to check my mower out here in a week too. It seems like that thing has had 3 10+ month long growing seasons in a row. I just hate that I agree with the models to a T. Makes me want to leave Oklahoma til November. Lol.

I really feel for ya OKwx!  Back in the Fall, the pattern looked pretty awesome across your area but that pesky ridge kept popping in the southern plains and east.  I sure hope you score the moisture over the next couple months so that the drought conditions don't come on quickly in the Spring.  Severe wx threat is probably going to be big down in the southern plains as I'm seeing a pretty wild clash of air masses next month into April.  The LRC pattern suggests this is probably on the table as we move along.

 

Besides that, how have you been?



#8
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:20 AM

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I really feel for ya OKwx! Back in the Fall, the pattern looked pretty awesome across your area but that pesky ridge kept popping in the southern plains and east. I sure hope you score the moisture over the next couple months so that the drought conditions don't come on quickly in the Spring. Severe wx threat is probably going to be big down in the southern plains as I'm seeing a pretty wild clash of air masses next month into April. The LRC pattern suggests this is probably on the table as we move along.

Besides that, how have you been?


I've been doing ok. I think a combination of working second shift hours and this snowlessness for the last 3 years is just taking it's toll a bit worse than usual this year. Always in the wrong place at the wrong times I guess. Story of my life. :lol:

#9
Tom

Posted 16 February 2018 - 05:51 AM

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I've been doing ok. I think a combination of working second shift hours and this snowlessness for the last 3 years is just taking it's toll a bit worse than usual this year. Always in the wrong place at the wrong times I guess. Story of my life. :lol:

Streaks are meant to be broken and we certainly hope that your streak will be broken soon!  Hey, the Cub's did it a couple years ago so I'd imagine your next bud!  

 

Meantime, here is the latest IRI Spring and Summer outlooks....

 

Spring...

 

MAM18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

MAM18_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

 

 

Summer...can you spot the "Ring of Fire" pattern...I don't like this look for the Plains peeps looking to score an active severe wx season...

 

JJA18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

JJA18_NAm_pcp.gif



#10
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 February 2018 - 04:14 AM

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Streaks are meant to be broken and we certainly hope that your streak will be broken soon! Hey, the Cub's did it a couple years ago so I'd imagine your next bud!

Meantime, here is the latest IRI Spring and Summer outlooks....

Spring...

MAM18_NAm_tmp.gif

MAM18_NAm_pcp.gif




Summer...can you spot the "Ring of Fire" pattern...I don't like this look for the Plains peeps looking to score an active severe wx season...

JJA18_NAm_tmp.gif

JJA18_NAm_pcp.gif


I'll get a winter back here one day.

Looks like a summer heat dome pattern. That's about what I'd expect out of the core of this summer.
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#11
Tom

Posted 23 February 2018 - 04:43 AM

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I'm starting to see trends that are rather similar to what happened last Spring when all of a sudden it turned real wet and cool across the south/central Plains and of course into the MW.  The CFSv2 has been showing this trend and it's a really good thing for those that are experiencing drought conditions.  It's always better to have wetter soils as you creep closer to Summer to mitigate any severe droughts or excessive heat waves.

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

 

 

 

Furthermore, I would take another repeat summer like we did last year as these maps look ideal to me...pockets of warmth and wet signals are common in the summer so I wouldn't take this verbatim.  Trends have been cooler also for summer across the central CONUS.  I'm expecting to see a lot of frontal boundaries and as we get deeper into summer the "ring of fire" pattern might be really active this year.

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_4.png

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_us_4.png

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#12
Tom

Posted 23 February 2018 - 05:45 AM

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Remember this pattern when we head into Memorial Day weekend and during the 1st week of July...

 

https://www.wundergr...chusetts-78-nyc



#13
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 February 2018 - 06:29 AM

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We only had one 100 degree day last Summer. I want that again.

I need to do some research on the last time we've stayed below 100° all summer. Certainly it's happened.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#14
Tom

Posted 05 March 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Dry trends continue to show up across the ag belt region of the central Plains next month if you are to believe the CFSv2.  Not looking good for NE/KS posters.  My gut tells me you guys out west will be complaining from the heat and dry weather late Spring into summer.  Unless things change soon, I'm not convinced that a wetter pattern sets up like it did later in Spring last year.

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201804.gif

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201804.gif



#15
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 March 2018 - 04:38 AM

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You know it's bad when Tom is pessimistic.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#16
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 March 2018 - 04:41 AM

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Not a good way to start the week. I’ve had my fears that this pattern was coming. Would not be good for agricultural interests for sure.

#17
Tom

Posted 05 March 2018 - 04:53 AM

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You know it's bad when Tom is pessimistic.

 

Not a good way to start the week. I’ve had my fears that this pattern was coming. Would not be good for agricultural interests for sure.

Ya guys, thus far this pattern early on in March is not delivering the much needed precip even with all the blocking that is in place.  My fear is the SW ridge, which has been a common theme in this year's LRC, will show its ugly face early and often this Spring.  It's going to be a hot and dry summer near the TX Panhandle and that's not a good thing for your neck of the woods.  I'm sure there will be bouts of precip here and there but I believe the soaking rains will end up being farther east into the MW/GL's/OV.  Let's see if these trends are going to continue.



#18
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 March 2018 - 06:12 AM

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Ya guys, thus far this pattern early on in March is not delivering the much needed precip even with all the blocking that is in place. My fear is the SW ridge, which has been a common theme in this year's LRC, will show its ugly face early and often this Spring. It's going to be a hot and dry summer near the TX Panhandle and that's not a good thing for your neck of the woods. I'm sure there will be bouts of precip here and there but I believe the soaking rains will end up being farther east into the MW/GL's/OV. Let's see if these trends are going to continue.


You’re right Tom. Most times in this pattern we have huge March storms that deliver a wide variety and plenty of precipitation including blizzards. We are fortunate around here that we sit on top of the Ogallala Aquifer so irrigation is the lifeblood of this region but it is expensive. I come from a farming background, my father In law and brother in law farm 2500 acres of corn and soybeans along with raising several hundred head of cattle. They tell me the coffee shop talk of a hot dry summer is real and they are concerned. Unfortunately, we all pay for it in higher grocery bills down the road.
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#19
Tom

Posted 05 March 2018 - 06:22 AM

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You’re right Tom. Most times in this pattern we have huge March storms that deliver a wide variety and plenty of precipitation including blizzards. We are fortunate around here that we sit on top of the Ogallala Aquifer so irrigation is the lifeblood of this region but it is expensive. I come from a farming background, my father In law and brother in law farm 2500 acres of corn and soybeans along with raising several hundred head of cattle. They tell me the coffee shop talk of a hot dry summer is real and they are concerned. Unfortunately, we all pay for it in higher grocery bills down the road.


Unfortunately, I think the “Garden of Eden” ride your area has had over the last couple years will end this growing season. I hope I’m wrong.

#20
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 05 March 2018 - 07:36 AM

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A dry Great Plains? Gross, that never ends well.
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#21
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 March 2018 - 08:13 AM

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A dry Great Plains? Gross, that never ends well.

A summer with red flag warnings, burn bans, crop stress, dried out yards, we saw this in 2012.  Not a fun summer at all.


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#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 March 2018 - 11:16 AM

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Sadly, I'm in agreement with you all. Somewhere in our subforum is in for a tough summer. I thought I was the most likely candidate at one time but now appears that threat is looking more likely to my north and west. My ground is fully saturated for the first time in over 8 months.
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#23
Niko

Posted 06 March 2018 - 04:23 PM

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Spring around the corner. Looking forward w the time going one hr ahead this Sunday as well.  Barbeques will get going soon as well. Spring cleaning will be underway also and boy, do I have some Spring cleaning to do in my house. I believe by April, some nice weather will arrive. Knowing SEMI has a snow magnet this Winter, who knows. We will see. If we end up getting a snowstorm in April, then, I will get pissed.



#24
james1976

Posted 07 March 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Sadly, I'm in agreement with you all. Somewhere in our subforum is in for a tough summer. I thought I was the most likely candidate at one time but now appears that threat is looking more likely to my north and west. My ground is fully saturated for the first time in over 8 months.

Did you receive any measurable snow this season?

#25
Niko

Posted 08 March 2018 - 06:58 AM

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So far, April is looking a little better than March, although, still a bit nippy.



#26
Tom

Posted 08 March 2018 - 09:16 AM

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Here's the latest Long Lead SST CA forecast models thinking through summer...

 

Early Spring chill...

 

cat2m_anom.0.png

Late Spring comeback???

cat2m_anom.1.png

caprec_anom.1.png

 

Somewhat similar summer to last year but more heat in the Plains/S MW???

 

 

cat2m_anom.3.png

 

caprec_anom.3.png



#27
NEJeremy

Posted 08 March 2018 - 09:57 AM

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That's a lot of red everywhere....

 

Here's the latest Long Lead SST CA forecast models thinking through summer...

 

Early Spring chill...

 

cat2m_anom.0.png

Late Spring comeback???

cat2m_anom.1.png

caprec_anom.1.png

 

Somewhat similar summer to last year but more heat in the Plains/S MW???

 

 

cat2m_anom.3.png

 

caprec_anom.3.png



#28
Tom

Posted 08 March 2018 - 10:15 AM

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That's a lot of red everywhere....

If there was a mod/strong El Nino present or forecast to build, then I'd agree to the overall warmth across the globe.  However, just look back to the pre-winter ideas all the dynamic models suggested and they obviously did NOT see the Eurasian cold and North American cold.  You can refer to Dr. Cohen's blog https://www.aer.com/...ic-oscillation/



#29
Tom

Posted 10 March 2018 - 04:57 AM

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In the midst of the "Spring Barrier" season, there is an obvious battle among the various dynamic models where we may be heading in terms of the ENSO pattern across the equatorial PAC.  Like last year, the CFSv2 is indeed holding steadfast on the idea that waters remain cooler than normal throughout the Spring/Summer months and hold onto the idea of a weak La Nina.  Not surprisingly, like last year, the Euro wants to bring on a weak Nino by the end of Summer.  I don't have any faith in the Euro as it has not shown any confidence in predicting ENSO events.  IMO, the CFSv2 has been much better in terms of forecasting the ENSO SST pattern compared to any of the global models.  The JAMSTEC comes out next week and I'm curious if it sticks to ENSO neutral conditions throughout the summer months and into next Fall.  Last year, both the JAMSTEC/EURO were predicting a moderate Nino by summer which was a big FAIL.

 

Here is the latest CFSv2 trends...

 

nino34Sea.gif

 

 

 

 

The warm biased NMME trending warmer...

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png


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#30
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 March 2018 - 09:29 PM

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Did you receive any measurable snow this season?


If I did, it was maybe .2" maximum. Got around .3" of ice total this winter and most of my precip fell in the last week of winter just to mess up what the stats look like. Lol. 30 miles to my NE, got over 4".

#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 March 2018 - 09:38 PM

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30, 60, 90 and 120 day rainfall for Oklahoma.
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#32
Tom

Posted 12 March 2018 - 04:02 AM

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Yuck, the latest JMA monthlies advertising a stout -NAO in April and its looking similar to the latest trends of the CFSv2 for a cool to cold April.  Similar look continues into May, but interestingly, June turns hot which is rather similar to what happened last year.

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#33
Tom

Posted 12 March 2018 - 04:26 AM

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I find it rather interesting to see the CFSv2 is actually holding onto the idea of a weak La Nina throughout the summer months.  Not only that, but like last year, it is predicting a cooler summer over the Arctic regions and signs of a weak vortex across the Archipelago regions in Aug/Sept.  If this is to happen, the idea of less arctic ice melt this summer season would provide some evidence that we are in fact turning the corner in terms of ice growth.

 

 

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#34
jaster220

Posted 12 March 2018 - 07:12 AM

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Colorful, but am I the only one who feels that perhaps they got the color scheme reversed? Logically speaking, you'd have the blue shades on the wettest end of the scale, and reds/pinks/browns for less moist and/or dry conditions. Maybe I'm just too logical 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#35
Hawkeye

Posted 12 March 2018 - 03:32 PM

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The latest Euro weeklies keep the upper midwest/lakes region below avg through the entire 45 days.   :(


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#36
jaster220

Posted 13 March 2018 - 11:05 AM

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The latest Euro weeklies keep the upper midwest/lakes region below avg through the entire 45 days.   :(

 

:(  :(  :(  I knew we'd pay for last April's record warmth. And as usual when a payment's due, there's no grace period, lol  


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#37
Niko

Posted 13 March 2018 - 07:31 PM

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Watch we get a cold Spring. -NAO looks to be the playa for the extended. :rolleyes:



#38
Tom

Posted 14 March 2018 - 04:17 AM

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The JAMSTEC's latest run seems to be the most consistent global model suggesting ENSO neutral conditions to persist through the entire year.  IMO, like last year, models were to bullish on predicting a possible El Nino.

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

Spring SST anomalies...

 

ssta.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

Summer SST's...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the temp/precip maps for Spring/Summer...

 

Spring Outlook:

 

This is quite a warm look, but may be an indicator of a late Spring warmth rally...the dryness across the central Plains fits the LRC pattern.

 

 

temp2.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

Summer Outlook:

 

Hot and Dry Summer overall...

 

temp2.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif



#39
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 06:57 AM

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The JAMSTEC's latest run seems to be the most consistent global model suggesting ENSO neutral conditions to persist through the entire year.  IMO, like last year, models were to bullish on predicting a possible El Nino.

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

Spring SST anomalies...

 

ssta.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

Summer SST's...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are the temp/precip maps for Spring/Summer...

 

Spring Outlook:

 

This is quite a warm look, but may be an indicator of a late Spring warmth rally...the dryness across the central Plains fits the LRC pattern.

 

 

temp2.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.MAM2018.1mar2018.gif

 

 

 

Summer Outlook:

 

Hot and Dry Summer overall...

 

temp2.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.JJA2018.1mar2018.gif

Unfortunately, that looks like it could verify.  Not much worse than hot and dry.  Around here with all of the irrigation, center pivots, and corn putting water back into the sky, it just adds to the humidity (dew point), and can make it unbearable at times.  Detasseling corn in my youth might have been one of the hardest jobs I've ever had.  Being in the middle of a tall corn field with no breeze and stifling humidity made up my mind very quickly that I needed to get a college degree.  When I see people working out in the elements, farming, construction, roads, etc. I am very appreciative of the work they do.  


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#40
Tom

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:09 AM

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Unfortunately, that looks like it could verify.  Not much worse than hot and dry.  Around here with all of the irrigation, center pivots, and corn putting water back into the sky, it just adds to the humidity (dew point), and can make it unbearable at times.  Detasseling corn in my youth might have been one of the hardest jobs I've ever had.  Being in the middle of a tall corn field with no breeze and stifling humidity made up my mind very quickly that I needed to get a college degree.  When I see people working out in the elements, farming, construction, roads, etc. I am very appreciative of the work they do.  

Ditto to the Bolded!  I will add that there is support that it might not get as bad in NE as it could get.  We really need to see good moisture April-May to see how things progress into Summer.

 

On another note, something quite odd transpired on the latest CPC equatorial sub surface anomalies on the very last frame between 160-180W...it's like a knife of cold waters split up the warm pools below...

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#41
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:15 AM

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Ditto to the Bolded!  I will add that there is support that it might not get as bad in NE as it could get.  We really need to see good moisture April-May to see how things progress into Summer.

 

On another note, something quite odd transpired on the latest CPC equatorial sub surface anomalies on the very last frame between 160-180W...it's like a knife of cold waters split up the warm pools below...

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

I follow a local tv meteorologist on Twitter.  He said the exact same thing Tom.  These next 8-10 weeks are crucial, and if we don't start adding to our deficit during this time, we could be in some trouble moisture wise going forward.  Remains to be seen.  It does look below normal temperature wise the next couple of weeks.



#42
Snowlover76

Posted 14 March 2018 - 09:50 AM

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Ugly forecasts there.

#43
Illinois_WX

Posted 14 March 2018 - 01:05 PM

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Ugly forecasts there.

 

Yeah seriously. Everything I've seen is hot and dry so far. Sounds like we have another summer of 2012 on our hands:

 

Attached File  4321.JPG   75.8KB   0 downloads


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 05:20 PM

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Yeah seriously. Everything I've seen is hot and dry so far. Sounds like we have another summer of 2012 on our hands:

 

attachicon.gif4321.JPG

Just looked up the data for that year. July only had 0.33" of rain, and the stretch from July 12 until July 26 had highs of 95 degrees or above, with half of those being over 100.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#45
snowstorm83

Posted 14 March 2018 - 05:41 PM

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There's hot and dry summers, and then there's 2012. Highly doubt we get a repeat of that.



#46
NEJeremy

Posted 14 March 2018 - 05:53 PM

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Omaha had only .01" of rain the entire month of July 2012. Was the 4th hottest July ever as well.



#47
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:06 PM

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I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#48
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:14 PM

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I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.


Valid. But I think what worries them is the drought in the southern high plains, which may spread NEward with time, especially if it continues to see literally zero rainfall.
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#49
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:30 PM

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I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.

None of us are worried about March. We're worried about Summer being a droughty hell. Look at what thread we are posting in.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#50
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:55 PM

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I have read it and still revert back to my post above lol.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/