2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

[CentralNebWeather]

Ditto to the Bolded!  I will add that there is support that it might not get as bad in NE as it could get.  We really need to see good moisture April-May to see how things progress into Summer.

 

On another note, something quite odd transpired on the latest CPC equatorial sub surface anomalies on the very last frame between 160-180W...it's like a knife of cold waters split up the warm pools below...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

I follow a local tv meteorologist on Twitter.  He said the exact same thing Tom.  These next 8-10 weeks are crucial, and if we don't start adding to our deficit during this time, we could be in some trouble moisture wise going forward.  Remains to be seen.  It does look below normal temperature wise the next couple of weeks.

[Snowlover76]

Ugly forecasts there.

[Jaycee]

Ugly forecasts there.

 

Yeah seriously. Everything I've seen is hot and dry so far. Sounds like we have another summer of 2012 on our hands:

 

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah seriously. Everything I've seen is hot and dry so far. Sounds like we have another summer of 2012 on our hands:

 

4321.JPG

Just looked up the data for that year. July only had 0.33" of rain, and the stretch from July 12 until July 26 had highs of 95 degrees or above, with half of those being over 100.

[snowstorm83]

There's hot and dry summers, and then there's 2012. Highly doubt we get a repeat of that.

[NEJeremy]

Omaha had only .01" of rain the entire month of July 2012. Was the 4th hottest July ever as well.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.

[hlcater]

I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.

Valid. But I think what worries them is the drought in the southern high plains, which may spread NEward with time, especially if it continues to see literally zero rainfall.

[Minny_Weather]

I think all of the Nebraska posters are overreacting here lol. Have you even seen the parade of wet storms for the next two weeks? March was forecasted to be wet here by climate models. GEFS ensembles have 2-3" of QPF here the next two weeks. I think we'll be ok.

None of us are worried about March. We're worried about Summer being a droughty hell. Look at what thread we are posting in.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I have read it and still revert back to my post above lol.

[Minny_Weather]

I have read it and still revert back to my post above lol.

Not trying to sound like Snowlover, but being blindly positive won't help much. There's not much hope for a cool, wet Summer like we had last year. We'd better have a wet next couple months or we're in trouble. Everything points towards us being death ridged come June. Plenty of room for desert air to make it up here.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not trying to sound like Snowlover, but being blindly positive won't help much. There's not much hope for a cool, wet Summer like we had last year. We'd better have a wet next couple months or we're in trouble. Everything points towards us being death ridged come June. Plenty of room for desert air to make it up here.

I have kept seeing Tom post stuff that show a wet and cool spring. Honestly as we get closer to spring seems like we keep getting wetter and wetter.

[Minny_Weather]

I have kept seeing Tom post stuff that show a wet and cool spring. Honestly as we get closer to spring seems like we keep getting wetter and wetter.

Spring ≠ Summer. I like our potential severe wx pattern for April and May but I think June is when we start being ridgelocked. Hell, while we're at it I wouldn't be surprised to see measurable snow in April.

[snowstorm83]

Yeah, you guys need to calm down. Eastern Nebraska isn't Phoenix and I doubt we'll have a serious drought this summer. On the other hand, climate change does what it wants and we could have a very hot and dry summer, but of course climo doesn't come close to supporting that. Also it's still March LOL. 

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies are lining up quite well with my thoughts that during the first week of April, the colder wx begins to relax and focus more to the north, while the ridge builds in from the south.  By Week 4, things could really start to warm up as the SW ridge blossoms and this is certainly a possibility and fits the overall LRC pattern.  I'm not quite sure how strong this ridge will get, but folks in the Plains will likely get a surge of early season heat if that is to come into fruition.  On the flip side, depending on how the blocking plays out, the MW/GL's region may still be stuck in a wet/cool pattern, esp being located on the periphery of the building ridge to the west which I think will transpire April 1st-15th.  I'm just throwing this out there, but we could potentially see early season record heat in the Plains April 9th-15th.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah, you guys need to calm down. Eastern Nebraska isn't Phoenix and I doubt we'll have a serious drought this summer. On the other hand, climate change does what it wants and we could have a very hot and dry summer, but of course climo doesn't come close to supporting that. Also it's still March LOL.

Not saying we'll be Phoenix. Saying hotter and dryer than normal looks to be in the picture. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am. Capiche?

 

Also, when I mention desert air, I mean the same desert air that always comes up here during heat waves. We get those when we're ridged. Where does that air come from? The desert! Obviously evapotranspiration makes it disgustingly humid in turn.

[westMJim]

In the for what it is worth department.  Acuweather in their 90 day forecast for Grand Rapids does not have a 70° day for a high until May 23^rd well in the recorded weather history of Grand Rapids the latest first 70° is May 3^rd 1950. April 1950 is currently the 2^nd coldest April in Grand Rapids history with a mean temperature of 39.6° April 1907 is the coldest April here with a mean of 36.7° April 1907 had 2.1” of snow on the 30^th  May 1907 departure from average was -8.0 with frost all the way until the 28^th So springs can be very cold here in the great lakes.

[Tom]

Here are some maps from the ECMWF seasonal...

 

Late Spring/Early Summer...

 

 

 

 

 

Summer...hot/dry for the most part...

 

 

[Tom]

CPC's latest take on both April and into the remainder of Spring and Summer...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif

 

Summer..."Ring of Fire" anyone???  Sheesh, if this happens, the Plains are gonna bake...that SW ridge, which has been a semi-permanent feature in this year's LRC pattern, will likely be growing early and often.  Inter-mountain west looks real dry.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p03.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I don't mind being on the Northeast periphery of the SW ridge. Better than being on the humid side but that drought is going to suck.

[CentralNebWeather]

All depends on the location of the heat dome. If it stays south we can be on the northern perifery and get decent storms riding over the top. If it builds north, then what happened in July of 2012 rears it’s ugly head.

[Tom]

I don't mind being on the Northeast periphery of the SW ridge. Better than being on the humid side but that drought is going to suck.

Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought!  I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.

[CentralNebWeather]

Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought!  I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.

I sure didn't realize that much of SE Iowa is already dry.  I am in the area south of the Platte River that is dry.  Hope we can see some action in the next few days.  It did rain here for 2 minutes this morning at 6:25, I am not kidding, it rained for a whopping 2 minutes before stopping.  I just shook my head.  

[westMJim]

for the at least the next 10 days it looks dry even here but it also looks to be colder than average as well.

[NEJeremy]

Meh. I’m not that worried about the summer. All you have to do is look at the forecasts of an epic winter here this winter to realize how much of a crap shoot long range forecasts are. For all the talk of how horrible it is right now, only a small portion of the state is in the abnormally dry D0 rating and red flag warnings can actually be pretty common this time of year when you have windy, low humidity days, and the vegetation is still dead from the winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought! I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.

The turnaround over my area of the state over the last 30 days has been incredible. I agree with you. It appears I'm going to get lucky enough to have chances to cool down this summer. Going to be a really rough year out west.

[OKwx2k4]

So, Tom, going forward, what are your thoughts on the AO/NAO during this summer? My thoughts currently are that we could see a couple of periods of pretty sharp –AO/NAO in late June-early July and again in early August if current trends hold up. If that's the case, could see cool anomalies this year across the far eastern great plains to great lakes but the contrast will be extreme between cooler eastern areas and extremely warm and dry Western areas. Just my thoughts. I'm not a summer person but I didn't have a winter and I'm having weather withdrawals.

[Tom]

So, Tom, going forward, what are your thoughts on the AO/NAO during this summer? My thoughts currently are that we could see a couple of periods of pretty sharp –AO/NAO in late June-early July and again in early August if current trends hold up. If that's the case, could see cool anomalies this year across the far eastern great plains to great lakes but the contrast will be extreme between cooler eastern areas and extremely warm and dry Western areas. Just my thoughts. I'm not a summer person but I didn't have a winter and I'm having weather withdrawals.

TBH, I don't really follow the AO/NAO in the summer and I find it doesn't really have much of an impact once we are in May, esp the NAO.  The jet relaxes and its really all about pattern recognition as we move into Summer.  I would watch for the ridge out in the west and to see  how much ridging forms in central Canada.  There may be bad wild fires this season in Canada.  If this happens, this would allow for coolness to come down from the northern plains and trigger sharper cold fronts or frontal systems that can stall out. 

 

My first dab at your summer looks to start off warm to hot in June and then begin to cool mid.late July into Aug.  We may be heading towards a very similar summer like last year, but last year the ridging and dryness was centered much farther east (except for parts of the south where the hurricanes hit).  It's pretty obvious this year it is farther west into the TX Panhandle/OK/KS region.  The west coast/inter-mountain west will likely be bone dry (until the monsoon hits) and the drought across the central Plains is likely to expand or stay put throughout the summer.

[Tom]

The latest IRI suggesting a similar look to the CPC and might suggest a warm second half of Spring into June...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May/June/July period...lining up to what I mentioned above with a hot start to summer June into July, cooling thereafter...watch out for that nasty looking west/SW ridge.  I remember being in AZ last summer during the month of June breaking all sorts of record highs.  Something similar is on the table this year until the monsoon starts in July. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall, the summer looks AN for the central/southern Plains but a ribbon of normal temps across the ag belt of the MW into the GL's/OV...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the IRI is also agreeing with the CFSv2 on the pattern across N Canada as we finish off Summer and head into Autumn.  Large pool of cool giving us a hint of what I think is coming next year.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I'd say the models and I agree pretty well at this point.

[jaster220]

In the for what it is worth department.  Acuweather in their 90 day forecast for Grand Rapids does not have a 70° day for a high until May 23^rd well in the recorded weather history of Grand Rapids the latest first 70° is May 3^rd 1950. April 1950 is currently the 2^nd coldest April in Grand Rapids history with a mean temperature of 39.6° April 1907 is the coldest April here with a mean of 36.7° April 1907 had 2.1” of snow on the 30^th  May 1907 departure from average was -8.0 with frost all the way until the 28^th So springs can be very cold here in the great lakes.

 

1907 - The backwards spring! Uggh. Must you remind us how horrid it can be? Really hoping for once that those maps Tom posted above (CPC and IRI) are onto something when they show us breaking out of this BN rut by the 2nd half of spring. 

[Tom]

WxBell's Summer Outlook...

 

 

[Tom]

I'm seeing a lot of similarities for this summer in comparison to the Summer of '13.  If you take a look at the pattern from Mar-May '13 which was a ridiculously chilly to cold Spring, and quite wet, this Spring is certainly showing signs of heading that way.

 

 

 

 

Knowing the LRC and given the pattern moving forward over the next 2-3 weeks and beyond, these maps above may certainly come close to matching up by the time we close out Spring.  Just look at the warm/dry parts of the CONUS near Cali/SW and almost identical dryness in the KS/TX Panhandle region compared to the current pattern we are in.  The bulls eye of AN precip centered over the MW and somewhat across the App's looks similar to this year thus far except the bulls eye this year is across the southern Plains in E OK/Texarkana up into the OV.

 

Now, look at where the CFSv2 is trending for the rest of Spring into June...dagger of coolness and wetness across the middle of the nation...watch out for the Canadian wild fires this year and some pretty sun sets from a NW Flow pattern that will probably funnel smoke into our skies.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd1.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd1.gif

 

 

These ideas fall in line with what I'm thinking at the moment with a biased warm to hot start to Summer down in the southern Plains up into the KS region.  Things begin to switch around mid summer into late summer and we may very well see a cool to cold August across the MW corn belts.  Low solar, pattern recognition, LRC, neutral ENSO and my intuition are saying that this should be an ideal summer if you don't like the heat/humidity, except down south and parts of the Plains.  I'm sure there will be some days of heat but heat waves won't be common across the MW/GL's/OV.

[Tom]

CFSv2 looks ideal for a hot/dry late Spring into Summer across parts of Canada.  I could already smell the wild fires this season and the media frenzy. Anyway, look out for the west coast ridge along with the Canadian and EC ridge that may work in tandem to carve a troughy look across the central CONUS this summer.  Ring of Fire pattern looks ideal coming out of the Rockies into the northern Plains/MW/GL's.  Plains bake quick in June but trend more towards normal in July and BN in Aug is my final call for this summer.  Summer of '08, '09, '13 & '14 look similar to this one.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd3.gif

[Tom]

If that west coast ridge hooks over the top along with the Canadian ridge...the cool will rule and precip will be plentiful. Just hoping those folks in NE can be close enough to the precip and escape the early torch which I’m expecting.

[OKwx2k4]

These are actual numbers from August 08 and 2009. Just crazy. Repeat? Yes please.

 

mcd(1).php

mcd.php

 

Yes. That is a heating degree day in August in Oklahoma.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, with 2013 being a heavy favorite by both of us, it's hard to find a crazier year for me than that. May 3 snowstorm followed above avg temps for 10 days, severe wx on the 15-16th of May, then an EF-5 tornado in Moore on May 20th. Great summer after it though. Crazy wild month for me.

[Tom]

Also, with 2013 being a heavy favorite by both of us, it's hard to find a crazier year for me than that. May 3 snowstorm followed above avg temps for 10 days, severe wx on the 15-16th of May, then an EF-5 tornado in Moore on May 20th. Great summer after it though. Crazy wild month for me.

I remember that day in Moore like it was yesterday. You had a snowstorm in early May?? That’s cray, cray!

[OKwx2k4]

I remember that day in Moore like it was yesterday. You had a snowstorm in early May?? That’s cray, cray!

Yeah. Most was gone by the time I woke to see it but I still have pictures somewhere of it. There were measurements taken of up to 6" that morning. Fast forward to December 3 and I had my first winter storm warning that day. I'll have to find my pictures from that month. Have them stored somewhere but not sure where anymore. My uncle runs Draper water treatment facility in OKC and they watched the tornado all the way across Moore. It literally stopped and roped out just before it hit them. Directly wiped out one of the places I lived as a child when it crossed I-35 onto Howard Ave. If anyone wonders why severe weather stresses me a bit, that's why. May "99,"11, and "13 are three great reasons. Seems like I always have family in harm's way about 2 months out of the year.

 

[OKwx2k4]

If you put a dot where the blue and black lines cross I-35/77, I used to live there.