Jump to content

2018 Spring/Summer Outlook


Tom

Recommended Posts

I think Spring breaks into here in around 2 weeks. This cold pattern definitely won't be around here forever.

Ya, I agree to some degree, that your region will see the break first, but not out here towards the GL's as the pesky -NAO pattern doesn't look like it will escape anytime soon.  Sucks really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With March being the 1st month of spring I will place this here.

 

March recap at Grand Rapids, MI

The mean temperature for the month was 34.0° and that is -1.3° below average the average High was 43.3° and the average low was 25.4° the warmest high was just 56° on the 18th and the coldest it got all month was just 17° on the 10th Just 5 days reached 50° or better and only 3 nights stayed above 32° there was just 4.9” of snow fall (8.3” is average) and just 1.16” of total precipitation. So the month was a cool and some what dry month with no major extremes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My concerns this summer for sustained coolness and a wetter overall look is what happens in the NE PAC or the west coast.  If we are to use the years posted earlier that come into play for this summer season, the CFSv2 is certainly trending that way of late.  I'm not going to buy into the real cool summer just yet for parts of the Plains, but like last year, an overall dry Autumn/Winter turned very wet in mid/late Spring.  Will this happen again this season?

 

Here are the latest trends for May via the CFSv2...notice the trough replaced by the NE PAC ridge which was my concern in this part of the region to fulfill a cooler to near avg summer for our sub forum overall.  If you have this same pattern roll through summer and connect with the ridge in Canada, there will almost certainly be a trough across the central CONUS.

 

With that being said, here is the 3-month summer 500mb pattern...

 

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_namer_2.png

 

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_namer_2.png

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_namer_2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ya, I agree to some degree, that your region will see the break first, but not out here towards the GL's as the pesky -NAO pattern doesn't look like it will escape anytime soon.  Sucks really.

 

Was noted elsewhere that this current -NAO scheme parallels 2013 extremely well and that lasted til mid-April with a lag effect til month's end. Ofc, 2014 was even colder than this year post Valentine's Day, but the huge difference was the 2 feet of snow that I also scored during that period. Much easier to take when there's at least something to get excited for  ;)

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Year without a summer? Starting to look like it. That ridge is slowly getting beaten back to the west as we roll forward in the models. I'm okay with it but I sure would like for it to at least get to 70 for about 2 weeks somewhere in here without a foot of rain following it or 30mph winds every single day. I'm already fast forwarding a bit to late summer and from where I sit, we have some interesting things setting up down the road if it all works out.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Year without a summer? Starting to look like it. That ridge is slowly getting beaten back to the west as we roll forward in the models. I'm okay with it but I sure would like for it to at least get to 70 for about 2 weeks somewhere in here without a foot of rain following it or 30mph winds every single day. I'm already fast forwarding a bit to late summer and from where I sit, we have some interesting things setting up down the road if it all works out.

You mean, "year without 95F+ for days" down by you?  How would that sound?  If the wet pattern continues, chances are in your favor.  Isn't a heat wave categorized as 3 or more days of 95F+ temps down by you?  Up here it is 90F+ for 3 or more days and I don't see that happening around here this year.  If 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of research has been done on the impacts of the U.S. climate after the episode of the "warm Blob" in the NE PAC.  If the CFSv2 trends are right, it is noteworthy to see what the model is showing in this region during the summer.  Look at the recent trends and where it is going for early Autumn.  This would be a dramatic flip in the SST's and would favor a cooler/wetter summer overall across our sub forum.  We also see these warm waters via the CanSIPS but this model IMO is way to warm for summer.

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_npac_3.png

 

Interestingly, these maps look quite similar when you look at the Maunder Minimum temp reconstruction maps during solar minimums.  Are we heading towards a climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2???  Should we get used to these warm waters in this part of the world???  Lot's of questions to be answered over the next 5-10 years.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You mean, "year without 95F+ for days" down by you? How would that sound? If the wet pattern continues, chances are in your favor. Isn't a heat wave categorized as 3 or more days of 95F+ temps down by you? Up here it is 90F+ for 3 or more days and I don't see that happening around here this year. If

With the first decent ridge of the warm season appearing to grip the western part of my state, (and most likely destroying a large portion of the severe weather season in the process) I'd say odd of any meaningful heatwaves east of I-35 are dropping significantly each day.

 

I'll have to refresh my memory on the exact measurements that entail a true heatwave here but my quick guess is 95+ for 3 or more days or 90+ with dewpoints of 60+ for 3 or more days. I'm curious now as to what is correct here though so don't quote me on that. I hate summer but I'm trying to become more interested/involved in regards to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of research has been done on the impacts of the U.S. climate after the episode of the "warm Blob" in the NE PAC. If the CFSv2 trends are right, it is noteworthy to see what the model is showing in this region during the summer. Look at the recent trends and where it is going for early Autumn. This would be a dramatic flip in the SST's and would favor a cooler/wetter summer overall across our sub forum. We also see these warm waters via the CanSIPS but this model IMO is way to warm for summer.

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_npac_3.png

 

Interestingly, these maps look quite similar when you look at the Maunder Minimum temp reconstruction maps during solar minimums. Are we heading towards a climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2??? Should we get used to these warm waters in this part of the world??? Lot's of questions to be answered over the next 5-10 years.

If I am not mistaken, 2013 was a failed attempt at this. My historical research has shown that late 1970s and late 1910s cold periods are directly preceeded by this. If this area stays warm, continents will all cool.

 

What is noteworthy is how early we are in solar minimum to be seeing this. 2013 was nearly 4.5 years post minimum and we are already here again. That should be a huge clue.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest long lead SST CA Forecast suggesting a wet and warm summer for most of us...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201803/caprec_anom.2.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201803/cat2m_anom.0.png

 

 

 

Of note, this model is also seeing the warm blob in the NE PAC along with an ENSO neutral PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201803/casst_anom.2.png

 

 

 

Finally, the warm biased NMME model continues to show a hot/dry summer across the sub forum...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typically, as we get deeper into May, a -NAO/-AO have a different effect on temps across the lower 48 and shift troughs/cooler weather more towards the west/SW which may give us a clue as to whether we should believe the CFSv2.  Take a look at the recent trends for May...IMO, its got the right idea....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180410.201805.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180410.201805.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180410.201805.gif

 

Here is the historical data for a -NAO regime in May...

 

 

 

 

-AO in May...

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typically, as we get deeper into May, a -NAO/-AO have a different effect on temps across the lower 48 and shift troughs/cooler weather more towards the west/SW which may give us a clue as to whether we should believe the CFSv2.  Take a look at the recent trends for May...IMO, its got the right idea....

That's a good look for severe weather and means that the growing season could finally start. Too bad it's CFSv2.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just curious, can you see the NAO/AO?

On Euro weeklies, NAO/AO tanks around May 7-11. That's around the time I think we may see a potent cold snap capable of bringing late freezes. Also a pretty big drop near the end of April. Mid-May I believe is when warm weather is finally locked in. I love cold cloudy weather and all, but I'm tired of seeing empty fields.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just curious, can you see the NAO/AO?

 

Nope, not showing

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Typically, as we get deeper into May, a -NAO/-AO have a different effect on temps across the lower 48 and shift troughs/cooler weather more towards the west/SW which may give us a clue as to whether we should believe the CFSv2.  Take a look at the recent trends for May...IMO, its got the right idea....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180410.201805.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180410.201805.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180410.201805.gif

 

Here is the historical data for a -NAO regime in May...

 

 

 

 

-AO in May...

 

Looks 'bout right. I remember fantastic warm and sunny days in May of '82 whilst Denver was making the evening news with heavy snowstorms. At that time/age I didn't have a clue wrt the mountain west climo so to me, a snowstorm in May was  cray-cray stuff

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the JAMSTEC model just came in today and its advertising a blow torch for much of the nation, except for parts of the GL's into New England.  Very dry across the central CONUS.  Is it believable???  Interestingly, it's ENSO forecast is holding onto the idea of warm ENSO neutral conditions through the summer which would not necessarily indicate a blow torch.  I remember Summer '13 had a similar look to it.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2018.1apr2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2018.1apr2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2018.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, the SST's in the N PAC continue to trend warmer and the development of the "blob" in the NE PAC is becoming evident among the models.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2018.1apr2018.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So it looks like we have a seasonal model for everyone. Literally. Chaos. I'm still going with my sw/west coast ridge idea transitioning or retrograding into a tall west coast ridge into Alaska and the Northeast Pacific in late summer. It would fit more in line with the warm neutral 2013ish confused El Nino look as well. The 2008-09 transition is not a bad example to look at either, nor is 1982-83 or 1975-76 transition. It still seems like the only logical response to me but I've been wrong before. I don't disagree with the warmth over NE US or the bulk of SE Canada at this point. This is a hard year to lay out so the analog process is likely going to be more confusing than it's worth this year. It would take 3 pages to explain. Lol.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest CPC equatorial depth anomalies are showing warmth growing below the surface of the ocean...should be an interesting battle between the cool & warm waters over the next couple weeks as strong easterlies are in the forecast.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest CPC equatorial depth anomalies are showing warmth growing below the surface of the water...should be an interesting battle between the cool & warm waters over the next couple weeks as strong easterlies are in the forecast.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Very weak CP Niño by early to mid-summer would basically guarantee the look I discussed in my previous post. I'm seeing an incredible setup for a Pacific tsunami season in the making after that warmth breaks the surface also. Would almost lock in a cool to cold late summer as we discussed for everyone east of the Rockies. Love what is shaping up at this time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very weak CP Niño by early to mid-summer would basically guarantee the look I discussed in my previous post. I'm seeing an incredible setup for a Pacific tsunami season in the making after that warmth breaks the surface also. Would almost lock in a cool to cold late summer as we discussed for everyone east of the Rockies. Love what is shaping up at this time.

Would be nice to see the convection later in the season set up in the central PAC, or close to the ENSO 3/3.4 region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There aint gonna be Spring this year. BN to MBN. Idk, hopefully, that doesn't pan out.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

News flash! Spring showed up, and played today in SMI

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hot off the press, the JMA seasonal showing encouraging signs that summer will in fact make a push next month.  The SW ridge looks to build and push next month out in the Plains, but this may not happen till mid/late month as my idea of a hot start to summer is in the cards.  However, those folks up near the GL's/Upper MW may still be dealing with back door cold fronts as blocking still has somewhat of an impact in May, but in June, this blocking effect disappears.

 

In June, the same pattern continues in the SW/southern Plains states, but more of a normal temp regime across the rest of the sub forum which is very similar to what the CFSv2 is painting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, I took a look at the Euro Seasonal 2m temps for the summer and compared the previous 2 runs.  It's clear that the cooler idea may be in the cards for the central CONUS.  Definitely did trend cooler and wetter across the Rockies/SW.  Sure, there are pockets of warmth as one would expect to see in the summer.  Another strong Monsoon on the way???

 

 

March run...

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-005-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4

ps2png-gorax-blue-000-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4

 

April run...

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-005-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-004-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...