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2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#201
jaster220

Posted 17 May 2018 - 05:44 AM

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Tom, out at June 1st, is this graph a forecast of trade winds in that region? Are they normally easterly or westerly trades? Which colors indicate the burst you speak of? None of it looks terribly high speed to me. 

 

Attached File  20180517 ENSO winds graph.PNG   1.2MB   0 downloads



#202
Tom

Posted 17 May 2018 - 06:11 AM

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Tom, out at June 1st, is this graph a forecast of trade winds in that region? Are they normally easterly or westerly trades? Which colors indicate the burst you speak of? None of it looks terribly high speed to me.

20180517 ENSO winds graph.PNG


The blues and greens are easterly trades on the map. You can see that a strong one is about to begin. By June 1st, a modest easterly trade is expected across the central PAC.
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#203
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 08:39 AM

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My honest opinion, now, given more time, data and observation is for a Niño 'head-fake' for 2018-19, Big Niña 2019-20 and then a longer term moderate or double Niño in 2020-21 and 2021-22. I think I said before that if we don't see overwhelming evidence of a Niño by mid-June, there more than likely won't be one this year so that's where I'm laying my confidence right now. Also, it's just too warm north of the equatorial regions right now to support a Niño at all. If things hold serve, we have a very interesting late summer and autumn coming up, which I don't think the models are seeing correctly.
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#204
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Niño 1 is already bombing out like crazy.

Attached Files


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#205
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 May 2018 - 09:14 AM

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We tend to fare better in this region with nada Niños, so it is very encouraging to see the upward ENSO trend. I don't see this being a full blown niño this year either, but at the same time I don't see a sudden negative flip like I did last year. If we're gonna have a nada niño headed into Winter, this is the best opportunity for it imo.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#206
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:11 PM

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Those Waters in the northwest Atlantic are as hot as I have ever saw them on any map. Interesting.

#207
Tom

Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Those Waters in the northwest Atlantic are as hot as I have ever saw them on any map. Interesting.


You can imagine that would signal for a strong Bermuda High...

#208
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 02:49 PM

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You can imagine that would signal for a strong Bermuda High...


You would think so. My hope here is that as summer progresses, it helps pull the heat out of the central conus. I've misjudged ssts and their effects before though so we will see.

#209
Tom

Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:56 AM

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CPC's recent run for summer continues to pain an average summer, similar to last year, across the majority of the central CONUS.  Portions of the southern Plains (KS, TX PanHandle and W OK) will prob end up above average knowing this is where the semi-permanent ridge has set up this year.  Overall, I agree with this look and going forward, IMO, it will turn cooler mid/late summer so any early warmth may wash out by the time summer is over for a lot of us on here.

 

 

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif



#210
Tom

Posted 18 May 2018 - 04:02 AM

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There is that hot start to summer per the June Outlook across the Plains (@ Okwx, your gonna bake early amigo)....I feel bad for those living in AZ this summer, its been bone dry and they will Fry next month.  I'm sure we will see record heat talk next month.  Similar to last year, when I was out there in June, my prediction is that PHX hits 120F 2x which may be an all-time record.

 

 

 

 

 

t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

p14.2c.gif



#211
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:08 AM

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My forecast down here will mostly depend on the SOI variability going through June. Opening the month with an ENSO crash and ensuing SOI rise/trades burst is undoubtedly going to throw me in the oven for half of June at minimum. It's a lot easier pill to swallow when the highs average low-mid 80s (ten above avg. is still just 90-95° at most) for normals versus after July 1 when they average 88-91° through August 21. Surprisingly, those are the first NOAA maps I have actually agreed with in a couple of years. Lol.
It sounds like like the situation I mentioned back in April where we could both end up being right but in different ways was actually spot-on and will really make for a great summer except for folks in the desert SW and drought regions of course.

#212
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 May 2018 - 05:05 PM

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I check these frequently for the analog sets they blend to, mostly. If I keep seeing, 2013, 1978 and 2000, I'm gonna be pretty stoked.
Attached File  Screenshot_20180523-200641.jpg   204.17KB   0 downloads
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#213
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 May 2018 - 06:11 PM

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I check these frequently for the analog sets they blend to, mostly. If I keep seeing, 2013, 1978 and 2000, I'm gonna be pretty stoked.

The fewer the better with us here in the Plains/MW. Looks like the perfect season for storms to form then die before they really impact us. Nothing worse than a situation like last September where we were ridged for the entire month due to repeated tropical activity in the Atlantic, resulting in record heat. That always ups the chances of a front-loaded Winter too (which 2013 and 2000 were)


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#214
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 May 2018 - 10:09 PM

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The fewer the better with us here in the Plains/MW. Looks like the perfect season for storms to form then die before they really impact us. Nothing worse than a situation like last September where we were ridged for the entire month due to repeated tropical activity in the Atlantic, resulting in record heat. That always ups the chances of a front-loaded Winter too (which 2013 and 2000 were)


Dude, August 20 to October 1 last year here was legitimately the most boring weather I have literally EVER experienced. 65-70° lows and 80-85° highs and sunny EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. :lol: Absolutely maddening autumn. I think this may be one of the more active late summer, early autumn severe seasons if things play out right. I'll be excited if the Pacific starts lighting up with tropical activity soon. High Pacific ACE is usually a slam dunk for us to not bake all late-summer and Autumn.
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#215
Tom

Posted 24 May 2018 - 03:47 AM

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The JMA weeklies came out today and basically are agreeing with the CFSv2 that we should see a bit of a cool off during the first week of June.  The culprit??  The North American 500mb amps up as a result of the warmer waters brewing in the NE PAC.  It has been well advertised per the CFSv2 monthlies that these waters would warm up in May.  Check out the ridge the pops in that region and the response downstream.  I'm telling ya, this summer season we will see some unusual troughs swing through from what I'm seeing.  On the flip side, the SW ridge will be strong as ever and the "ring of fire" pattern looks ideal anyone north of KS/OK next month.  That's right, I think those in NE may still be far enough north of the ridge to get chances of storms from time to time.  The saying, "riding the edge" comes to mind if you live in NE.

 

 

Current state of SST's....

 

Y201805.D2312_gls.png

 

 

Week 1-2 500mb pattern...

 

Y201805.D2312_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...the signal is there for a very hot desert SW into parts of the southern/central Plains.  After a period of dryness near the MW/GL's over the course of the next 10 days or so, I believe things get wet again around here come Week 2 in June and beyond as the cooler cycle  of the LRC repeats again.

 

 

Y201805.D2312_gl0.png


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#216
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 May 2018 - 06:43 AM

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Dude, August 20 to October 1 last year here was legitimately the most boring weather I have literally EVER experienced. 65-70° lows and 80-85° highs and sunny EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. :lol: Absolutely maddening autumn. I think this may be one of the more active late summer, early autumn severe seasons if things play out right. I'll be excited if the Pacific starts lighting up with tropical activity soon. High Pacific ACE is usually a slam dunk for us to not bake all late-summer and Autumn.

We dealt with an almost completely dry September. And after not hitting 90 once in August, we were dealing with temps consistently in the mid-upper 90s in late September. Active hurricane seasons are the worst.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#217
Niko

Posted 01 June 2018 - 08:04 AM

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As of now, Summer in SEMI looking not too shabby, in terms of hot to very hot weather. Near average or even slightly below normal. Accu-weather thinks so. :)



#218
Tom

Posted 02 June 2018 - 05:33 AM

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Spring 2018 will be remembered as extended Winter to many on here, but the flip to Sudden Summer in May will be just as memorable.  The record warm May certainly lifted the temp means for the entire Spring season.  Some places in the Dakotas and into MN averaged out above normal, which is an amazing feat knowing how cold both March/April had been.

 

 

MAM18TDeptUS.png



#219
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 June 2018 - 09:12 AM

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Spring 2018 will be remembered as extended Winter to many on here, but the flip to Sudden Summer in May will be just as memorable. The record warm May certainly lifted the temp means for the entire Spring season. Some places in the Dakotas and into MN averaged out above normal, which is an amazing feat knowing how cold both March/April had been.


MAM18TDeptUS.png


Ha. Ended as a wash for me. Crazy.

#220
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 June 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Quick look at SST anomalies to start June, along with the 7 day change.
Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1(3).png   128.19KB   0 downloads
Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1(2).png   131.48KB   0 downloads

Looking forward, I like the warming off the Baja with the neutral look on the equator and warm over neutral over warm around the Aleutian Islands/GOA. These features to me argue against Niño development and seem to agree with Tom and I that we should see late-summer troughing develop right over the center of the US. I'm watching the Aleutian Islands to see if we get cooling in the GOA as we go forward. This would support something we haven't seen in awhile, a true Aleutian low feature tendency as summer matures and the AO begins to weaken from it's 4 month positive spell. Lots of fun stuff to look forward to if that happens.
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#221
Tom

Posted 08 June 2018 - 07:03 AM

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Wow, this is about as fast as of a start to the Monsoon season anyone can ask for living in the desert SW, which, by the way, officially starts on June 15th.  Last year, it began in early July if I recall while I was out there.  So many sad stories of wild horses and animals dying near our place back in AZ due to the extremely dry weather.  No water to drink, no vegetation to eat, sad situation.

 

 

 

DfLKd-LV4AEuD7X.jpg

 

 

 

If the CFSv2 is right, it'll be wet for the foreseeable future out that way...is this an early indication on how the Fall may set up???

 

usPrecMonInd2.gif


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#222
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 08:49 AM

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Wow, this is about as fast as of a start to the Monsoon season anyone can ask for living in the desert SW, which, by the way, officially starts on June 15th. Last year, it began in early July if I recall while I was out there. So many sad stories of wild horses and animals dying near our place back in AZ due to the extremely dry weather. No water to drink, no vegetation to eat, sad situation.



DfLKd-LV4AEuD7X.jpg



If the CFSv2 is right, it'll be wet for the foreseeable future out that way...is this an early indication on how the Fall may set up???

usPrecMonInd2.gif

In my opinion, this is a fantastic sign if you want summer to end early. Typically monsoon season goes into full force by July 15 if I'm not mistaken. This one looks to go fully into it straight away. This year has all the hallmarks of an early end. Early monsoon season(2013 and 2014), longwave summer pattern is already locked and has been since May started, AO has been predominantly positive for greater than 6 months, in spite of 2 SSW events, and the Atlantic hurricane season should be dead. The Atlantic is cool and dry in the tropical development regions like 2013 and 2014 also. We still have 2 months of this to go, with at least 2 more returns to extreme ridging and heat after this one but one has to have optimism (if you don't like extreme heat) that summer will end more in line with the meteorological date of September 1, if not showing signs of peak heating ending before then over the CONUS.

#223
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 08:58 AM

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The monsoon typically doesn't extend into the US until after mid-July so if this is the case, it's a full month early.
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#224
Tom

Posted 08 June 2018 - 09:20 AM

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The monsoon typically doesn't extend into the US until after mid-July so if this is the case, it's a full month early.


In 2008, the NWS changed it to June 15th as the official start to Monsoon season till Sept 15th. It seems a bit early to be fair, but this allows them to prepare the locals ahead of the “main” show.

#225
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 10:50 AM

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In 2008, the NWS changed it to June 15th as the official start to Monsoon season till Sept 15th. It seems a bit early to be fair, but this allows them to prepare the locals ahead of the “main” show.


I can understand that. It kinda screws with traditional seasonal markers a bit though. I guess I'm about a decade behind the times though. I always was an "old school" fella anyway. :D
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#226
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 11:35 AM

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I've spoken briefly or made hints that I thought the Atlantic and Pacific were both in progress of undergoing major shifting. I'd say it's safe to say that has occurred over the Atlantic. Signs the Pacific is following can be seen in the Arctic temperatures. Only year I have found that bears similarities to this one is 1976 in the arctic.

Attached File  meanT_2018.png   6.29KB   0 downloads
Attached File  meanT_1976.png   5.92KB   0 downloads

#227
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 11:46 AM

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Last but not least, watch the vortex get "handed off" out of eastern Canada back over to the Pacific side. This is very cool to watch and has important implications going into the mid and late summer.

Attached File  z200anim.gif   2.59MB   0 downloads

This kinda culls the hysteria of our record May temperatures. Anytime you have a vortex changing locations that is that large, and quickly, the only thing that can be to it's south or upstream is a ridge. Global warming didn't have a thing to do with it. Just normal Arctic housekeeping, so to speak.
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#228
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 04:42 PM

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New SST seasonal analogs up on tidbits. Couple of key features to note. GOA low and EPO block setting up in September. If this verifies, it would fit quite well with my previous posts and expectations. Some good years in that list too. 1978 and 2009 being the 2 standouts. Niño fake is also present in this analog setup.

Attached File  Screenshot_20180608-194118_Firefox.jpg   209.32KB   0 downloads

#229
Tom

Posted 11 June 2018 - 05:26 AM

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The new JMA seasonal outlook for the next 3 months just fit the script that was written in my late Winter thoughts on how this summer would progress...Fast start to Summer, cooling mid/late Summer.  There is still some heat left in this summer for those who like the warmth, but as we get deeper in the season, the anticipation of the summer ridge to creep west into the inter-mountain west looks like it will happen in July/Aug.  Interestingly, once we get into Sept, the JMA suggests the ridging to overwhelm both W/NW North America resulting in a very amplified pattern.  Over the past several Septembers, we have seen warm ones, not cool that's for sure.  Will this change this year???

 

For those living near the GL's, I think we have seen our hottest period of this warm season which oddly happened during met Spring in the month of May.  I also see some unusual troughs, potentially penetrating farther south than normal in the month of Aug.  August this year, may end up cooler than last year around here, but for those in the Plains, I think the heat will subside as we get deeper into Summer.  We will likely have a little bit of everything as we carry on through summer.  It may end up being a short one this year if September cools off dramatically.  Short growing season in the Canadian prairies and northern Plains???



#230
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 June 2018 - 08:48 AM

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September looks like absolute perfection. I agree wholeheartedly with the comments above. Whether the analog of 2000, 1976, 1978, 2004 or 2013 is your choice, these are the most common ones I have seen over the last 2 months to roll forward with. Those would fit a very similar progression to each of those years although the months don't line up exactly with each. If you throw in 2009, intense summer was literally over in July for the Eastern 2/3 of the US. My thoughts, same pattern is highly likely but just a different timescale. Glad to see confirming data rather than me being off in left field. :)
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#231
Tom

Posted 21 June 2018 - 12:36 PM

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What does the CPC show for July and the rest of the summer????

 

July...AN temp regime and a wild Monsoon season...

 

t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

p14.2c.gif

 

 

 

July/Aug/Sept...

 

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif



#232
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 June 2018 - 04:50 PM

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What does the CPC show for July and the rest of the summer????

 

July...AN temp regime and a wild Monsoon season...

 

t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July/Aug/Sept...

 

 

t01.2c.gif

 

Not a single bit of blue on CPC maps? I'm shocked!  :o  :o  :o  :o


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#233
james1976

Posted 21 June 2018 - 05:23 PM

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Is this current cutoff Low kinda strange for this time of year?? Its chilly today. 60s and cloudy and breezy. I like it!
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#234
Tom

Posted 21 June 2018 - 05:40 PM

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Is this current cutoff Low kinda strange for this time of year?? Its chilly today. 60s and cloudy and breezy. I like it!


I think so, but wait till August and what I think we will see are some strong late Summer troughs, esp late month.

#235
Tom

Posted 22 June 2018 - 04:39 AM

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As you all know by now, I like to challenge myself in trying to figure out the longer range pattern.  Nearly all of us will be experiencing AN temps during the long 4th of July holiday week.  Where do we go from there?  The idea of the mean subtropical ridge retrograding towards the west coast sometime during mid July may have some merit.  There is already a hint of this idea being illustrated per the GEFS/GEPS in the extended.  Check out the shift west of the subtropical ridge.  This fits the pattern and would allow for an amplified North American pattern to develop mid July into Aug, with August being the coldest month, relative to norms for the entire summer.  I believe August this year may rival the cooler weather we saw last year.  Look for the summer time polar vortex to spin up quick across northern Canada in August which will lead into an interesting September ("polar" opposite of what we have seen in recent years during the month of Sept...no pun intended).

 

 

 



#236
Tom

Posted 22 June 2018 - 04:57 AM

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Woah, if the Euro Weeklies are correct, the cold in Canada certainly looks ominous and very well sets the stage for a year without a summer in that part of the world and a Fast start to Autumn/Winter in the northern latitudes.  Interesting cooler look across the Plains...NW Flow???

 

DgP_uDsVAAAJurW.jpg


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#237
james1976

Posted 22 June 2018 - 05:10 AM

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Nice. Ill take a NW flow! Ive had enough heat for the "summer" already lol.

#238
Tom

Posted 22 June 2018 - 05:14 AM

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Nice. Ill take a NW flow! Ive had enough heat for the "summer" already lol.

Your going to enjoy August then...this month will be ideal for those bon fire nights....ahhh, I can already smell the burning wood...


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#239
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 June 2018 - 12:16 PM

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As you all know by now, I like to challenge myself in trying to figure out the longer range pattern. Nearly all of us will be experiencing AN temps during the long 4th of July holiday week. Where do we go from there? The idea of the mean subtropical ridge retrograding towards the west coast sometime during mid July may have some merit. There is already a hint of this idea being illustrated per the GEFS/GEPS in the extended. Check out the shift west of the subtropical ridge. This fits the pattern and would allow for an amplified North American pattern to develop mid July into Aug, with August being the coldest month, relative to norms for the entire summer. I believe August this year may rival the cooler weather we saw last year. Look for the summer time polar vortex to spin up quick across northern Canada in August which will lead into an interesting September ("polar" opposite of what we have seen in recent years during the month of Sept...no pun intended).


If you're right, and I think you are, it means we both were right about summer. I can honestly tolerate 2 more months of this if it's as bad as it gets.
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#240
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 June 2018 - 12:18 PM

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Woah, if the Euro Weeklies are correct, the cold in Canada certainly looks ominous and very well sets the stage for a year without a summer in that part of the world and a Fast start to Autumn/Winter in the northern latitudes. Interesting cooler look across the Plains...NW Flow???

DgP_uDsVAAAJurW.jpg


If things go as they're supposed to, that cold will get stuck over Canada soon enough.

#241
Tom

Posted 22 June 2018 - 12:49 PM

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If things go as they're supposed to, that cold will get stuck over Canada soon enough.

Nature doing, what nature does...it's going to be a fascinating pattern across N.A. if things line up the way I have dreamed "once upon a time" heading into the cold season...haha!  A day like today, cloudy, cool and breezy, makes you think how fast summers are around here and there isn't much time left if you consider how quickly it may end this year.  Seriously, we have been blessed with extended summers for the past 3 years and I don't think this Sept will be all that warm.  Gotta enjoy life in the "present" moment and take the good with the bad.



#242
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 June 2018 - 12:56 PM

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Nature doing, what nature does...it's going to be a fascinating pattern across N.A. if things line up the way I have dreamed "once upon a time" heading into the cold season...haha! A day like today, cloudy, cool and breezy, makes you think how fast summers are around here and there isn't much time left if you consider how quickly it may end this year. Seriously, we have been blessed with extended summers for the past 3 years and I don't think this Sept will be all that warm. Gotta enjoy life in the "present" moment and take the good with the bad.


I could see how the long summers could be a blessing up there. They're a curse down here. :lol: I've got summer down pat after 30 years of this nonsense weather. Lol. I'm ready to try doing 30 years of real winter with short summers.

#243
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 June 2018 - 05:22 PM

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Ready to see summers and autumns go back to a more 70s and 80s theme around here.
Attached File  OK-CD00.tavg.Autumn.png   64.76KB   0 downloads
Attached File  OK-CD00.tavg.Summer.png   62.82KB   0 downloads
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#244
Andie

Posted 23 June 2018 - 06:36 PM

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Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#245
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 June 2018 - 08:32 PM

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Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.


Yuk. I'm sorry. It's been seriously hot down there lately.

#246
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 June 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Saw 108* on the car temp gauge yesterday. How many ways can you say " sucktaciously sucks"?

Thought my hair would catch fire, but it would be put out by the humidity.

Heading to Houston on Monday where I'll be for 2 days before flying to Florida. Looks like both days I'll have mid-70s dew points to look forward to. That's oppressive even by Houston standards. Makes the mid-60s DPs we've had seem like child's play.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#247
Tom

Posted 08 July 2018 - 04:24 AM

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Woah, the ECMWF seasonal suggesting a big trough across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation for the last month of met summer.  Will we rival last year's Aug temp pattern?  Something tells me it will end up being cooler, esp closer towards the GL's region.  

 

Aug17TDeptUS.png

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#248
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:37 AM

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Woah, the ECMWF seasonal suggesting a big trough across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation for the last month of met summer. Will we rival last year's Aug temp pattern? Something tells me it will end up being cooler, esp closer towards the GL's region.

Aug17TDeptUS.png


Yeah. I'd say if that verifies, it will be like September rather than August.

#249
Tom

Posted 09 July 2018 - 03:48 AM

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My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer.  As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the  farther south you go.  This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling.  IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.

 

 

 

 

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#250
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 July 2018 - 09:26 AM

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My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer. As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the farther south you go. This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling. IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.


Noticed the new drought area popping up there by me. I can say after mowing this morning that I'm in fact back to abnormal dryness. Only takes about 2 weeks in mid-summer to get this bad. Subsurface moisture is still doing incredibly well here and the trees are under the least stress I in which have seen them in a decade at this point in the summer. September is a downhill run from here almost though.
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