2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

[jaster220]

Not that I want a tornado to come through my town but......my fellow Lincoln friends remember 2 years ago??? 

 

Tornado does not appear to have done much, but that hail - yikes! 

[Niko]

Tornado does not appear to have done much, but that hail - yikes! 

Hail and Ice are my two most unwanted precipitation. Cannot stand them.

[westMJim]

In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.

1936

April -5.7°

May +4.2°

June -1.2°

July +4.8°

August +3.1°

1944

April -6.0°

May +2.2°

June +0.5°

July -1.5°

August +0.9°

1965

April -5.2°

May +3.5°

June -2.5°

July -2.5°

August -2.9°

1982

April -6.2°

May +6.3°

June -5.6°

July +0.6°

August -2.2°

In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot!  This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’

[Tom]

In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.

1936

April -5.7°

May +4.2°

June -1.2°

July +4.8°

August +3.1°

1944

April -6.0°

May +2.2°

June +0.5°

July -1.5°

August +0.9°

1965

April -5.2°

May +3.5°

June -2.5°

July -2.5°

August -2.9°

1982

April -6.2°

May +6.3°

June -5.6°

July +0.6°

August -2.2°

In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot!  This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’

Great work!  

[OKwx2k4]

In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.

1936

April -5.7°

May +4.2°

June -1.2°

July +4.8°

August +3.1°

1944

April -6.0°

May +2.2°

June +0.5°

July -1.5°

August +0.9°

1965

April -5.2°

May +3.5°

June -2.5°

July -2.5°

August -2.9°

1982

April -6.2°

May +6.3°

June -5.6°

July +0.6°

August -2.2°

In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot! This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’

I'm pretty sure ol '36 was my state's hottest summer. Please, for Heaven's sake not that one! It was a dust bowl year though and drought in the SW this year does parallel it a bit.

 

It is argued that 2011 was hotter but by standard of knowing that there was still vegetation covering the soil in most of Oklahoma in 2011, although most was dead or severely drought stricken, I don't think it is possible that 2011 was hotter than 1936. I am aware of what the climate record says though.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm pretty sure ol '36 was my state's hottest summer. Please, for Heaven's sake not that one! It was a dust bowl year though and drought in the SW this year does parallel it a bit.

 

It is argued that 2011 was hotter but by standard of knowing that there was still vegetation covering the soil in most of Oklahoma in 2011, although most was dead or severely drought stricken, I don't think it is possible that 2011 was hotter than 1936. I am aware of what the climate record says though.

I remember going to Duncan, OK in the dreaded 2011 Summer. All the vegetation was brown and the highs we're consistently in the mid-upper 100s when we were there. That was the trip from hell.

[Tom]

This is why I wasn't buying into the El Nino forming by late Summer according to the Euro seasonal a couple months ago.  It's latest weeklies show the reasoning why any warming shall be delayed across the equatorial PAC.  Strong easterlies are evident into the early part of June.  Warm ENSO neutral conditions are looking more likely IMO than an El Nino by the early Autumn.  I bet some mets make their adjustments over the next several months.

 

 

 

 

 

Not surprisingly, the Euro seasonal has backed off slightly on the warmer plumes into Autumn...

 

 

Last months run...

 

 

 

vs current...

 

[OKwx2k4]

I remember going to Duncan, OK in the dreaded 2011 Summer. All the vegetation was brown and the highs we're consistently in the mid-upper 100s when we were there. That was the trip from hell.

Most physically draining summer of my life. I worked as a supervisor/maintenance in a heat powered feed mill that summer. Also worked for 3 days at another of our Mills in Memphis TN in early July that year. It ruined me forever on summer. Literally just made me hate summer forever. I looked like I aged 5 years by the time that winter arrived.

[OKwx2k4]

This is why I wasn't buying into the El Nino forming by late Summer according to the Euro seasonal a couple months ago. It's latest weeklies show the reasoning why any warming shall be delayed across the equatorial PAC. Strong easterlies are evident into the early part of June. Warm ENSO neutral conditions are looking more likely IMO than an El Nino by the early Autumn. I bet some mets make their adjustments over the next several months.

 

 

 

 

 

Not surprisingly, the Euro seasonal has backed off slightly on the warmer plumes into Autumn...

 

 

Last months run...

 

 

 

vs current...

 

That's a good correction but, as you said, not near enough. If, and that is a big IF we see a Niño, I don't think I can say it will make official Niño status. I would love to wishcast the weak Modoki Niño that some in other places have written of, but I just can't buy it. The evidence you have posted is pretty sufficient for why.

[jaster220]

Did somebody mention weak Nino? Yes pls..

[OKwx2k4]

Did somebody mention weak Nino? Yes pls..

We can hope but I'm not getting anywhere near that statement yet. Lol.

[Tom]

Now, this Euro Weeklies map makes more sense with above normal precip...it certainly does agree with the CFSv2 so something to look forward to where it has been dry across the Plains and southern MW.

[Niko]

I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario.

[OKwx2k4]

I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario.

If I have studied how that works correctly, I'm sure it would have some effect. It does seem that a much larger magnitude eruption(s) of a certain kind are more preferred and the lower in latitude they are, the longer effects take. Given that we are in the early part of solar minimum, hard to say. Odds favor that one being the first of many eruptions worldwide.

[Niko]

If I have studied how that works correctly, I'm sure it would have some effect. It does seem that a much larger magnitude eruption(s) of a certain kind are more preferred and the lower in latitude they are, the longer effects take. Given that we are in the early part of solar minimum, hard to say. Odds favor that one being the first of many eruptions worldwide.

Also, I am guessing that it depends on the amount of gases and dust particles added into the atmosphere, which will have some influences on climate. Particles spewed from volcanoes cool the planet by shading incoming solar radiation. I believe back in the 80s, not sure what Volcano that was, had cooled off our planet quite significantly. I think it lasted several months, perhaps even more. All depends on the eruption I guess.

[westMJim]

I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario.

At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not.

[westMJim]

Also, I am guessing that it depends on the amount of gases and dust particles added into the atmosphere, which will have some influences on climate. Particles spewed from volcanoes cool the planet by shading incoming solar radiation. I believe back in the 80s, not sure what Volcano that was, had cooled off our planet quite significantly. I think it lasted several months, perhaps even more. All depends on the eruption I guess.

 Mount Pinatubo 1991

[OKwx2k4]

At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not.

This is correct.

 

Pinatubo is also a correct statement. If I'm not mistaken, there were a few major high latitude volcanoes in 2010 that helped aid in the high snow-to-liquid ratios that I experienced in that winter. Had something like 24-1" snow that season.

[Niko]

 Mount Pinatubo 1991

Yup, that's the one. Great info...thanks for reminding me.

[OKwx2k4]

If your vote is for a short summer, the trends on the CFS are a real treat. This is for August. Yes please!

[jaster220]

At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not.

 

I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. 

 

As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? 

[CentralNebWeather]

If your vote is for a short summer, the trends on the CFS are a real treat. This is for August. Yes please!

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_3.png

Yes please.

[westMJim]

I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. 

 

As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? 

there are always some volcanoes erupting somewhere here is a site that keeps track of that

 https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

[westMJim]

I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. 

 

As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? 

As for the  Mt. St. Helen's eruption and if it contributed to the cold winter of 81/82 it very well may have. as not only wast he winter of 81/82 cold much of the summer was cool as well (May was warm that year) but by fall the temperatures were above average, 

[Niko]

Bottom line is that an eruption needs to be massive to affect our region in terms of below average temps and a colder Winter for that matter!

[jaster220]

Bottom line is that an eruption needs to be massive to affect our region in terms of below average temps and a colder Winter for that matter!

 

Yellowstone? 

[OKwx2k4]

Yellowstone?

Nuclear winter!! Haha.

[Niko]

Yellowstone? 

[Tom]

The JMA/JAMSTEC come out with their seasonal forecasts in a day or two.  I'm curious to see if the JAMSTEC still favors a blow torch for the Plains region and into parts of the MW.  Given the general theme of the pattern this month, I'm skeptical to see a widespread torch, but moreso favoring the southern Plains up into KS/MO and even into NE.

[jaster220]

Nuclear winter!! Haha.

 

Somewhere yes, but nobody in the CONUS wants to see that long-dormant monster awaken. I don't recall where I saw this but they were saying that if that ever blew, the utter destruction zone would be as far east as all of Nebraska, and the major destruction would encompass the rest of the CONUS. Your nuclear winter would happen in Hawaii perhaps   

 

Speaking of..

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/959131/Yellowstone-Supervolcano-tectonic-shift-eruption

 

"Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of apocalyptic fascination — and it's not hard to see why. In September 2014, a team of scientists published a paper in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.

Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash — a mix of splintered rock and glass — and blanket the Midwest. That much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts of electrical equipment:"

[OKwx2k4]

Somewhere yes, but nobody in the CONUS wants to see that long-dormant monster awaken. I don't recall where I saw this but they were saying that if that ever blew, the utter destruction zone would be as far east as all of Nebraska, and the major destruction would encompass the rest of the CONUS. Your nuclear winter would happen in Hawaii perhaps

 

Speaking of..

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/959131/Yellowstone-Supervolcano-tectonic-shift-eruption

 

"Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of apocalyptic fascination — and it's not hard to see why. In September 2014, a team of scientists published a paper in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.

Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash — a mix of splintered rock and glass — and blanket the Midwest. That much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts of electrical equipment:"

Oh I know. It was only a joke. I vote for some Icelandic monster volcanoes to blow sometime soon.

[OKwx2k4]

The JMA/JAMSTEC come out with their seasonal forecasts in a day or two. I'm curious to see if the JAMSTEC still favors a blow torch for the Plains region and into parts of the MW. Given the general theme of the pattern this month, I'm skeptical to see a widespread torch, but moreso favoring the southern Plains up into KS/MO and even into NE.

I'd much rather it not but I still haven't ruled out blowtorching through June and early July.

[Tom]

I'd much rather it not but I still haven't ruled out blowtorching through June and early July.

It looks like the JMA seasonal outlook keeps a +PNA pattern through July and the west/SW fry in June into July.  Overall, it's not a terribly warm outlook across the central/southern Plains throughout the summer.  No real dryness as well which I'm not really buying into for parts of the southern Plains.  Keeps most of the real heat in the inter-mountain west. 

 

On a side note, check out the summertime vortex across the Archipelago regions of Canada.  This has been a reoccurring theme over the last several summers and something I've been paying attention to as we enter the Solar Minimum.

Edit: I think we will hear reports that ice on Hudson Bay will be melting very late this year with abnormally long lasting ice into the summer.

[Tom]

The latest IRI-multi model has been fairly steady with its summer outlook.  Pretty obvious west coast ridge pattern and a seasonal look across the central CONUS with a spot or two BN temp wise.  Moisture pattern across the south may be suggesting an active hurricane season out of the GOM.  This could make sense if you build higher heights across Canada and a pocket of cooler temps at times stearing any storm development out of the Gulf into the southern CONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Another interesting trend from the JMA season is that it keeps ENSO neutral conditions throughout the Summer months across the equatorial PAC, while the N PAC warms considerably.  Current state of the NE PAC is warming up big time and the idea of a west coast ridge is starting to make sense IMO.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201805.D1100_gls.png

[OKwx2k4]

Great stuff Tom. I can't disagree with you. Hoping August changes a bit but for this time, I'm getting that next month is likely our coolest month.

 

Those warm plumes off the continents are pretty impressive.

 

We don't hear many reports when ice stays longer than it should but you're right it should hang on pretty far into the summer up there.

[jaster220]

Great stuff Tom. I can't disagree with you. Hoping August changes a bit but for this time, I'm getting that next month is likely our coolest month.

 

Those warm plumes off the continents are pretty impressive.

 

We don't hear many reports when ice stays longer than it should but you're right it should hang on pretty far into the summer up there.

 

How'd you get that from his post? Did I miss something? 

[OKwx2k4]

How'd you get that from his post? Did I miss something?

See the posts above. He posted 3. I was replying to the one about the Canadian archipelago and ice on Hudson Bay.

[Tom]

Ouch, the latest JAMSTEC still advertising a blow torch...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2018.1may2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2018.1may2018.gif

 

One thing stands out to me though, knowing the LRC, and the potential for a hot spot of hurricane activity near the SE coast of the U.S., the model is pointing towards BN temps and AN precip in this region which fits the cycling pattern.  With that being said, usually hurricanes "vent" out and promote ridging across the MW/GL's when these massive storms hit so there could be periods of quite warm periods if these hurricane hits happen.  Something to keep in mind.

 

 

[Tom]

I think the JAMSTEC is drinking the "Nino" juice...it is forecasting an El Nino by July....ya right, not happening...

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2018.gif

 

 

Especially if you consider a strong easterly wind burst into June per the latest 00z EPS...