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2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#201
jaster220

Posted 17 May 2018 - 05:44 AM

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Tom, out at June 1st, is this graph a forecast of trade winds in that region? Are they normally easterly or westerly trades? Which colors indicate the burst you speak of? None of it looks terribly high speed to me. 

 

Attached File  20180517 ENSO winds graph.PNG   1.2MB   0 downloads



#202
Tom

Posted 17 May 2018 - 06:11 AM

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Tom, out at June 1st, is this graph a forecast of trade winds in that region? Are they normally easterly or westerly trades? Which colors indicate the burst you speak of? None of it looks terribly high speed to me.

20180517 ENSO winds graph.PNG


The blues and greens are easterly trades on the map. You can see that a strong one is about to begin. By June 1st, a modest easterly trade is expected across the central PAC.
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#203
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 08:39 AM

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My honest opinion, now, given more time, data and observation is for a Niño 'head-fake' for 2018-19, Big Niña 2019-20 and then a longer term moderate or double Niño in 2020-21 and 2021-22. I think I said before that if we don't see overwhelming evidence of a Niño by mid-June, there more than likely won't be one this year so that's where I'm laying my confidence right now. Also, it's just too warm north of the equatorial regions right now to support a Niño at all. If things hold serve, we have a very interesting late summer and autumn coming up, which I don't think the models are seeing correctly.
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#204
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Niño 1 is already bombing out like crazy.

Attached Files


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#205
LNK_Weather

Posted 17 May 2018 - 09:14 AM

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We tend to fare better in this region with nada Niños, so it is very encouraging to see the upward ENSO trend. I don't see this being a full blown niño this year either, but at the same time I don't see a sudden negative flip like I did last year. If we're gonna have a nada niño headed into Winter, this is the best opportunity for it imo.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#206
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:11 PM

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Those Waters in the northwest Atlantic are as hot as I have ever saw them on any map. Interesting.

#207
Tom

Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Those Waters in the northwest Atlantic are as hot as I have ever saw them on any map. Interesting.


You can imagine that would signal for a strong Bermuda High...

#208
OKwx2k4

Posted 17 May 2018 - 02:49 PM

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You can imagine that would signal for a strong Bermuda High...


You would think so. My hope here is that as summer progresses, it helps pull the heat out of the central conus. I've misjudged ssts and their effects before though so we will see.

#209
Tom

Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:56 AM

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CPC's recent run for summer continues to pain an average summer, similar to last year, across the majority of the central CONUS.  Portions of the southern Plains (KS, TX PanHandle and W OK) will prob end up above average knowing this is where the semi-permanent ridge has set up this year.  Overall, I agree with this look and going forward, IMO, it will turn cooler mid/late summer so any early warmth may wash out by the time summer is over for a lot of us on here.

 

 

 

t01.2c.gif

 

 

 

p01.2c.gif



#210
Tom

Posted 18 May 2018 - 04:02 AM

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There is that hot start to summer per the June Outlook across the Plains (@ Okwx, your gonna bake early amigo)....I feel bad for those living in AZ this summer, its been bone dry and they will Fry next month.  I'm sure we will see record heat talk next month.  Similar to last year, when I was out there in June, my prediction is that PHX hits 120F 2x which may be an all-time record.

 

 

 

 

 

t14.2c.gif

 

 

 

p14.2c.gif



#211
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:08 AM

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My forecast down here will mostly depend on the SOI variability going through June. Opening the month with an ENSO crash and ensuing SOI rise/trades burst is undoubtedly going to throw me in the oven for half of June at minimum. It's a lot easier pill to swallow when the highs average low-mid 80s (ten above avg. is still just 90-95° at most) for normals versus after July 1 when they average 88-91° through August 21. Surprisingly, those are the first NOAA maps I have actually agreed with in a couple of years. Lol.
It sounds like like the situation I mentioned back in April where we could both end up being right but in different ways was actually spot-on and will really make for a great summer except for folks in the desert SW and drought regions of course.

#212
OKwx2k4

Posted Today, 05:05 PM

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I check these frequently for the analog sets they blend to, mostly. If I keep seeing, 2013, 1978 and 2000, I'm gonna be pretty stoked.
Attached File  Screenshot_20180523-200641.jpg   204.17KB   0 downloads
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#213
LNK_Weather

Posted Today, 06:11 PM

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I check these frequently for the analog sets they blend to, mostly. If I keep seeing, 2013, 1978 and 2000, I'm gonna be pretty stoked.

The fewer the better with us here in the Plains/MW. Looks like the perfect season for storms to form then die before they really impact us. Nothing worse than a situation like last September where we were ridged for the entire month due to repeated tropical activity in the Atlantic, resulting in record heat. That always ups the chances of a front-loaded Winter too (which 2013 and 2000 were)


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for Southeast Lincoln:

 

Tornado Watches: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

Tornado Warnings:0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 5/11/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 5/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 2 (Last: 5/3/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#214
OKwx2k4

Posted Today, 10:09 PM

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The fewer the better with us here in the Plains/MW. Looks like the perfect season for storms to form then die before they really impact us. Nothing worse than a situation like last September where we were ridged for the entire month due to repeated tropical activity in the Atlantic, resulting in record heat. That always ups the chances of a front-loaded Winter too (which 2013 and 2000 were)


Dude, August 20 to October 1 last year here was legitimately the most boring weather I have literally EVER experienced. 65-70° lows and 80-85° highs and sunny EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. :lol: Absolutely maddening autumn. I think this may be one of the more active late summer, early autumn severe seasons if things play out right. I'll be excited if the Pacific starts lighting up with tropical activity soon. High Pacific ACE is usually a slam dunk for us to not bake all late-summer and Autumn.