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2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#251
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 July 2018 - 11:41 AM

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My final bold call for this summer is to eventually see the drought conditions across KS/MO/IA to radically improve by the end of met Summer. As we begin to "shift" away from the pattern we have seen for the most part of summer, I'm convinced that the overall pattern turns wetter the farther south you go. This is due in part by the driving force of the -EPO and somewhat of a blocking signal that is appearing in some of the modeling. IMO, August will be an interesting month and will give some of us an early taste of Autumn, at times, the farther north you are.


Would have to do some research to find out the last time Nebraska was this drought free.
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#252
Tom

Posted 09 July 2018 - 05:50 PM

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CFSv2 trends for August...carve that trough out...sign me up!  Looks good to me and what will likely be a cooler end to summer.  FWIW, I'm hearing the latest Euro weeklies are drastically cooler.

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#253
james1976

Posted 09 July 2018 - 07:46 PM

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A cooler than normal aug-sept would be nice for a change! I like the way things are looking for late summer. Ive had enough heat already lol.
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#254
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 July 2018 - 05:29 PM

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Seeing lot of and enough model trends to give around a 70% chance that the hottest part of summer is over for many, if not most of us. Looking like one more brief hot spell possible around mid-August but overall, if you don't like "dog days", I think there's good news here. I think we're about to close them out in July instead of August. If even half or slightly less of the cooldown from the GFS is true, I may even close out with a normal summer after the blazing, humid, opening 45 days.

#255
Tom

Posted 15 July 2018 - 04:27 AM

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The JMA monthlies came out today and suggesting yet another month where a major trough is setting up shop across NE Canada where it has been rock steady since May.  It is also agreeing that the entire North American 500mb amplifies which creates a seasonal look across the eastern CONUS.  Fits the pattern and idea of a cooler finish to Summer.

 

 

 

Y201807.D1000_gl2.png

 

 

Precip chances look better than the CFSv2 but I'm going with drier the farther north in the sub forum you live at the moment...wetter west and south...

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

 



#256
Tom

Posted 16 July 2018 - 04:05 AM

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All the signs in the modeling is lining up quite well as we move through the 2nd half of summer.  I'm becoming quite convinced that August will end up being a cool month in general as we close out met Summer.  The mid month daily run from the CFSv2 is intriguing in several ways...1) Greenland Block?  2) My thoughts of dryness near the GL's/MW are certainly trending that way  3) Major summer trough across SE Canada/GL's  4) NW NAMER ridge (long standing idea)  5)  SST's in the N PAC and equatorial PAC

 

CFSv2.z700.20180716.201808.gif

 

 

CFSv2.SST.20180716.201808.gif

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180716.201808.gif

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180716.201808.gif



#257
james1976

Posted 16 July 2018 - 07:30 AM

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If that trough becomes reality i hope it is far enough west for my region!

#258
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 July 2018 - 10:12 AM

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Getting closer....
Attached File  gfs_T2ma_us_34.png   162.78KB   1 downloads