February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

[Tom]

Based on the knowledge of the LRC, I'm inclined to believe that we will see a rather vigorous storm system ejecting out of the CO Rockies into the central Plains and eventually cutting up towards the GL's.  There is rather convincing ensemble agreement that a potential major storm takes shape this weekend.

 

Let's discuss....

 

The latest GEFS are trending stronger and wetter across the Plains and Upper MW...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings AFD::

 

Precipitation

chances returns to the area early Sat morning through Sat

evening, but there are differences with how strong/organized the

system is, will it be a closed system or an open wave. Kept

precipitation type simple at this point with it being several days

away, but at this point would think much of it would be snow,

with more uncertainty for ssern portions of the County Warning Area.

[St Paul Storm]

0z ICON with a big jump NW from 12z and 18z.

[jcwxguy]

Not a good trend for se nebraska today

[jcwxguy]

Def nw this run gfs

[Money]

Nam and gfs world aparts at hr 84

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Damnit. Every time a thread is started it jinxes us here. lol

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS north. I am on Southern edge. Looks like precipitation issues

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like thermals an issue here at 90. Might not last too long though.

[Money]

Gem takes the low from central IL to central MI

 

Crush job here

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[Money]

Check out the differences in H pressure at 72

 

GFS

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022100&fh=72

 

GEM

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

 

GEM has a 1025 H over southern IA while GFS is north into northern parts of minny

 

Big implications in the track because of it

[St Paul Storm]

GFS blitzer. That’s at 10:1. Also includes the Thursday system

[Money]

Nam has the high pressure over IA as well

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018022100&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=

 

So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far

 

Let’s see what ukie and euro say

[St Paul Storm]

Nam has the high pressure over IA as well

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018022100&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=

So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far

Let’s see what ukie and euro say

I love these showdowns. You got this one.

[james1976]

2"of crust....ill pass.

Few days to go yet however.

[Money]

I love these showdowns. You got this one.

I rather be in your area right now

 

Gfs got this

[Money]

Ukie only goes out to 72 I guess

 

It’s 8 mb weaker than gfs tho at hr 72

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

[OKwx2k4]

I'm just glad to see some drought relief.

[Tom]

00z Euro...includes the earlier system...

[Tom]

Starting to see some consistency between the GEFS/EPS with this one and its remarkably similar to the track the Oct 6th/7th storm took.  00z GEFS total qpf looks mighty juicy as well does the 00z EPS snow mean.

 

 

 

 

IMO, this is a C NE/NW IA/MN/N WI snow storm...

[GDR]

Alright keep it that way

[Money]

SPS gonna get crushed

[Snowshoe]

Arkansas is going to have some serious flooding issues! 

[St Paul Storm]

SPS gonna get crushed

12z ICON says differently fwiw. Probably not worth too much.

[Tom]

12z GFS not backing down on a MSP crush job...

[Tom]

That’s a beauty right there...going neg tilt at the perfect spot

[St Paul Storm]

Oh my....

[Tom]

According to the GFS, this run official bombs it out in 24 hours (1002mb into a 978mb storm)...

[Stormgeek]

Hopefully we can keep this look going. Things have been trending up so far instead of backing down. It seems that it is usually opposite. From what I have seen models usually overdo wrapped up systems and can underdo open waves passing through the region in the medium/long range, leading to some surprises. Definitely liking the looks of this, especially since the Euro is somewhere in the ballpark.

[St Paul Storm]

That’s one heck of a storm it’s showing no doubt. 12z GEM starting to play catch up. 999 low as it crosses northern Lake Michigan.

[Tom]

Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MN

[St Paul Storm]

Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MN

Haven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts.

[Tom]

Haven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts.

Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue.

[St Paul Storm]

Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue.

Always a concern for sure. I plan for the worst and hope for the best.

[snowstorm83]

Euro taking the goods straight through Norfolk. It's like the atmosphere doesn't know any different and this is the only thing it knows how to do.

[Tom]

12z Euro jumps onboard with an amped solution...

[Snowlover76]

stick a fork in this one for Lincoln 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro looks like a nice hit from my area to the northeast through Norfolk (no surprise there).  Only seeing the weather.us images, so hard to tell amounts, possibly 8+ I think in some places.  (colors very hard to read so might be off).  If anyone has the Euro snow map and can post it, that is always appreciated. 

[Tabitha]

 I plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1OCE3fh2dg

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Damnit