Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:55 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Lol i have no sympathy for anyone in Minnesota and South Dakota that posts here. You guys have already had a couple major snow storms, its time to spread the wealth further south. Im all for getting one last big one to get us to average winter amounts then have spring come rolling in.


Give me a break. What do we need your sympathy for anyway?
  • Madtown, NEJeremy, FarmerRick and 3 others like this

#52
iFred

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:14 PM

iFred

    The Weather Forums

  • (° ͟ʖ°)
  • 2376 posts
  • LocationPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania.

Forums were down due to emergency maintenance. Everything should be fine now. Enjoy the snow!



#53
Money

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:27 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts

Give me a break. What do we need your sympathy for anyway?


I mean it’s not like you’ve guys got nailed this year so no idea why he’s bitching

#54
jcwxguy

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:47 PM

jcwxguy

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 952 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE
Tab3FileL.png
  • Illinois_WX likes this

#55
Stormgeek

Posted 21 February 2018 - 01:31 PM

Stormgeek

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 274 posts

Looks like MSP has pulled the trigger on a WWA. Calling for 2-4 with isolated 5 in the central part of the state. Let the games begin!



#56
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 01:46 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Looks like MSP has pulled the trigger on a WWA. Calling for 2-4 with isolated 5 in the central part of the state. Let the games begin!


That’s for tomorrow’s smaller event. The potential storm on Saturday looking good still!

#57
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

GFS came south a tad. NAM hits eastern Nebraska more so now and the ICON model does the same as well. Improvement folks!


  • jaster220 likes this

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#58
Stormgeek

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:15 PM

Stormgeek

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 274 posts

That’s for tomorrow’s smaller event. The potential storm on Saturday looking good still!

I should have specified, my bad.



#59
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:17 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Combined with tomorrow’s snow. Quite the expansive snow band. No real threats of nasty gradients...at this point. 18z low pressure change is even greater than the 12z run although it ends up a tick weaker.

Attached Files


  • jaster220 likes this

#60
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:53 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
0z NAM. The entire state is socked pretty good.

Attached Files


  • Tom likes this

#61
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:09 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

0z NAM. The entire state is socked pretty good.


00z NAM onboard the GFS bombogenesis train...choo choo! Might be the storm of the season thus far that actually hits some members directly.
  • jaster220 and St Paul Storm like this

#62
CentralNebWeather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:48 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1888 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
NWS Hastings not thinking much snow for this system. 1-2 inches for my area. Euro had around 8”. I know they are usually conservative on amounts but that is more than a slight disparity.

#63
CentralNebWeather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:53 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1888 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
0z GFS looks like a better hit for Nebraska. Will NWS Hastings change their tune?

#64
snowstorm83

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:54 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 214 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

GFS clocks Omaha pretty good but still meh for Lincoln.



#65
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:54 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Sweet mother of mercy. This would be epic if it verified.

Attached Files


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#66
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:57 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Sweet mother of mercy. This would be epic if it verified.


Bomb-digiddy!

#67
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Can’t get much better.

Attached Files



#68
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:59 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL
I hope this system smashes a daily snow record in MSP...getting close to one hellova hit St Paul.

#69
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Looking much better for Omaha on the GFS. 

 

DNAjJ8Q.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#70
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:10 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

I hope this system smashes a daily snow record in MSP...getting close to one hellova hit St Paul.


Consistency between and within the models is pretty remarkable. But still a ways to go. I’m prepared for a bad run coming up on one of these models.

#71
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:11 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Consistency between and within the models is pretty remarkable. But still a ways to go. I’m prepared for a bad run coming up on one of these models.


GFS has lead the way and I’m pretty darn certain your in good shape.

#72
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:14 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

GFS has lead the way and I’m pretty darn certain your in good shape.

And the jinx is coming sponsored by Tom! Lol


  • jaster220 likes this

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#73
Money

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:15 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Gem

https://www.tropical...018022200&fh=78

#74
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:18 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

And the jinx is coming sponsored by Tom! Lol


You’re on a roll today. Don’t stop now.

#75
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:26 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

You’re on a roll today. Don’t stop now.

Um its a joke lol. Storm tracking is stressful, have some fun! 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#76
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:30 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

GEM feels like its worlds apart once again lol. 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#77
gabel23

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:40 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1187 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

NWS Hastings not thinking much snow for this system. 1-2 inches for my area. Euro had around 8”. I know they are usually conservative on amounts but that is more than a slight disparity.

They have .30-.40" of precip falling, mostly as frozen precip. I would think they change their tune come tomorrow. 



#78
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:15 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
I’m more interested in the severe aspect down in Dixie and the southern OV than I am snowfall with this storm. In which case I hope this thing bombs out. Already have a 50-70kt LLJ over spreading a warm sector with southerly winds and about 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. If we can destabilize more, we might see a decent event transpire. I mean, the shear is excellent with many areas at 300-400+ 0-1km SRH and a nice enlarged hodo aided by that LLJ.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#79
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 04:34 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I’m more interested in the severe aspect down in Dixie and the southern OV than I am snowfall with this storm. In which case I hope this thing bombs out. Already have a 50-70kt LLJ over spreading a warm sector with southerly winds and about 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. If we can destabilize more, we might see a decent event transpire. I mean, the shear is excellent with many areas at 300-400+ 0-1km SRH and a nice enlarged hodo aided by that LLJ.

It appears this storm is going to take on a classic, mature winter storm look with a neg tilted trough and a trowal-like feature.  This will look very pretty on radar.



#80
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 04:41 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z EPS/Control...As for some of the IA members, folks on the NW side of DSM look good, SE side not so much...James may be in the game...

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   721.06KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  2.png   682.9KB   0 downloads

  • james1976 and St Paul Storm like this

#81
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 05:06 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Thanks for posting the Euro maps, Tom. Always appreciated.

3-5” in the grids for tonight into tomorrow morning
6-11” in the grids for Saturday/Sunday morning. Winds look to be quite strong as well around 30mph. MPX says whiteout conditions very possible.
  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#82
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 05:24 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Thanks for posting the Euro maps, Tom. Always appreciated.

3-5” in the grids for tonight into tomorrow morning
6-11” in the grids for Saturday/Sunday morning. Winds look to be quite strong as well around 30mph. MPX says whiteout conditions very possible.

How much snow do you have OTG???  BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month.  I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week.



#83
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:13 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

How much snow do you have OTG??? BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month. I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week.

Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this.

I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening.
  • Tom likes this

#84
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:19 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this.

I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening.

Hopefully the defo band feature pivots in the right spot.  Most of the GEFS members show the main axis of heavier qpf totals right through MSP.  GEFS have been steadfast with well over 1" qpf across S/C MN and continue to show good trends.  


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#85
james1976

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:21 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4002 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Thanks for the maps Tom. Yeah im riding the edge for sure. Would be nice to get a weekend snowfall!
  • Tom likes this

#86
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:29 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
06z GEFS. They all can’t be wrong, can they?

Attached Files


  • jaster220 likes this

#87
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:33 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3079 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

We're still RIGHT on the ptype battle ground. God d****t.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#88
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 06:43 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

@ St Paul, 12z NAM heading towards my vision of this storm...nice looking trowal feature feeding into the cold sector with embedded convective look to it.  If these trends continue, thundersnow may be a real possibility.



#89
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:04 AM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1888 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE

Hastings just not overly enthused about the storm this weekend's snow potential.  Forecasts here are for less snow with some freezing precip. thrown in.  As I said yesterday, I hope for the best but expect it to be less.  12Z NAM not tremendous here either.  



#90
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:20 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

@ St Paul, 12z NAM heading towards my vision of this storm...nice looking trowal feature feeding into the cold sector with embedded convective look to it. If these trends continue, thundersnow may be a real possibility.


I just took a look at the 12z. Great look to that for sure. Low looks like it almost moves right overhead but no consequence on thermals. Does shut off the snow a bit sooner though and cuts down on totals a tad. Shift NW with the heavy stuff.

#91
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:49 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
12z GFS trending a tick stronger at 60. Gonna be another big run it appears.

Edit: 3 ticks stronger and 5 ticks stronger at 66 compared to 06z. Woah.

#92
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:51 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16485 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z GFS trending a tick stronger at 60. Gonna be another big run it appears.

Edit: 3 ticks stronger compared to 06z


MSP shutdown...
  • St Paul Storm likes this

#93
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3079 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)
Just need this to go a bit South and we'll be in the game for higher totals.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#94
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:53 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
981mb in NW Wisco. Man that things bombs out in a hurry.

#95
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:56 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Interesting to compare the current runs to the previous ones. All of the 6z and 18z runs produce lower totals, then the 0z and 12z blast them back up with the upper air data included.

#96
Stormgeek

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:03 AM

Stormgeek

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 274 posts
That 12z GFS. Wow. Goes full bomb mode. Been a while since seeing that look and it cutting here and not further east.
  • jaster220 and St Paul Storm like this

#97
NEJeremy

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:05 AM

NEJeremy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1894 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

12Z GFS bringing the 6-9" totals down to Omaha on this run. Sucks to be so close to the edge, seems to never work out that good.



#98
snowstorm83

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

snowstorm83

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 214 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Wonder if OAX will still go with WSW for I-80 since there looks to be ice beforehand.



#99
FarmerRick

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:09 AM

FarmerRick

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • LocationWest Central Omaha

I'm so glad the models have all been spot-on so far this winter... 



#100
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:17 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3079 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Wonder if OAX will still go with WSW for I-80 since there looks to be ice beforehand.


They will. They always issue WSWs when ice AND snow are involved. Actually mildly surprised they didn't jump that gun with today's even though this is a textbook advisory.
  • snowstorm83 likes this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM