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February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm


Tom

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Thanks for posting the Euro maps, Tom. Always appreciated.

 

3-5” in the grids for tonight into tomorrow morning

6-11” in the grids for Saturday/Sunday morning. Winds look to be quite strong as well around 30mph. MPX says whiteout conditions very possible.

How much snow do you have OTG???  BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month.  I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week.

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How much snow do you have OTG??? BTW, your looking golden right now buddy...it's like your going to get a taste of what we experienced during the 9-day historic snowy stretch earlier in the month. I would not be surprised if you tally up 15"+ this week.

Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this.

 

I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening.

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Always some pleasant surprises possible with a rapidly deepening cyclone. I think we’ll hit a combined total of 8” for sure. I’m probably being a bit conservative, but I like to set my expectations low. I haven’t checked the soundings but I wonder if any thunder/upright convection might be possible with this.

 

I have about 3” of compacted glacier OTG this morning. Should at least double that by this evening.

Hopefully the defo band feature pivots in the right spot.  Most of the GEFS members show the main axis of heavier qpf totals right through MSP.  GEFS have been steadfast with well over 1" qpf across S/C MN and continue to show good trends.  

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@ St Paul, 12z NAM heading towards my vision of this storm...nice looking trowal feature feeding into the cold sector with embedded convective look to it. If these trends continue, thundersnow may be a real possibility.

I just took a look at the 12z. Great look to that for sure. Low looks like it almost moves right overhead but no consequence on thermals. Does shut off the snow a bit sooner though and cuts down on totals a tad. Shift NW with the heavy stuff.

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Wonder if OAX will still go with WSW for I-80 since there looks to be ice beforehand.

They will. They always issue WSWs when ice AND snow are involved. Actually mildly surprised they didn't jump that gun with today's even though this is a textbook advisory.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It appears this storm is going to take on a classic, mature winter storm look with a neg tilted trough and a trowal-like feature.  This will look very pretty on radar.

 

Makes a classic spring-time look to this map as well - all colors in play

 

20180222 WPC d3 CONUS wx.gif

 

Sure, while our 3-day snows added up to 10-20" across S Lakes, it was by the weakest of over-running. This is a truly dynamic bomber like I can only remember in a distant memory, lol

 

#abitjellytbh

 

Good luck and enjoy one for me all you peeps in the path

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like the dreaded Platte river is the dividing line between where the WSW was hoisted earlier today. Places along and to the northwest of the river in a watch for Saturday. 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...A mix of light snow or light freezing drizzle this
afternoon. Additional snow accumulations less than one inch and
ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected. These amounts
are most likely where precipitation is most persistent. Then
heavy snow expected Friday night into Saturday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze are possible. Strong winds will not be an issue with this
event.

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