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February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

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#101
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:18 AM

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12z GFS

Attached Files


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#102
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:20 AM

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I would think MPX would pull the trigger on a winter storm watch for the afternoon package if the other 12z models don’t flop. Might have concurrent headlines for tonight’s event and Saturday’s. Or they might hold off until tomorrow morning to avoid confusion.

#103
james1976

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:23 AM

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#Jealous
So close. Hate riding the edge. I cant let myself get too caught up in this lol.
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#104
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:24 AM

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Gem takes the low to Chicago

#105
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:29 AM

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GEM and RGEM and pretty good hits for Central Nebraska.  



#106
Snowlover76

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Ugh. This is gonna suck. Oh well.

#107
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Ugh. This is gonna suck. Oh well.


It's two days away and we're within the margin of error.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#108
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:45 AM

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12z GEM upping totals from previous runs

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#109
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:47 AM

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If it moves South both us and the twin cities will get it hard! And Norfolk may not get it. We'll all be happy!

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#110
james1976

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:50 AM

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GEM looks good even for me but i just never put much stock in that model. I think it has won out a few times though so you never know.

#111
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 09:16 AM

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The ‘true snow liquid ratio’ calculation for the ICON on TT is a joke. 5” totals here through Saturday for 2 decent snow events.

#112
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 10:08 AM

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The 12z Euro is going to crush MSP...



#113
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 10:11 AM

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12z Euro...


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#114
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 10:42 AM

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^ That’s a really nice hit.

#115
jaster220

Posted 22 February 2018 - 11:09 AM

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It appears this storm is going to take on a classic, mature winter storm look with a neg tilted trough and a trowal-like feature.  This will look very pretty on radar.

 

Makes a classic spring-time look to this map as well - all colors in play

 

Attached File  20180222 WPC d3 CONUS wx.gif   185.42KB   0 downloads

 

Sure, while our 3-day snows added up to 10-20" across S Lakes, it was by the weakest of over-running. This is a truly dynamic bomber like I can only remember in a distant memory, lol

 

#abitjellytbh

 

Good luck and enjoy one for me all you peeps in the path


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#116
Snowshoe

Posted 22 February 2018 - 11:14 AM

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How does it look on the southern edge of the snow band for frz rain? Hopefully rain of not snow. I've got enough ice.

 

12z Euro...


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#117
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 12:25 PM

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MPX increasing totals in the grids:
3-7” tonight
7-13” Sat/Sun
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#118
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 12:32 PM

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MPX increasing totals in the grids:
3-7” tonight
7-13” Sat/Sun


15” total mean for the 2 systems may not be that far fetched!

#119
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 12:38 PM

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15” total mean for the 2 systems may not be that far fetched!


Looking more and more likely. Here come the Winter Storm Watches.

...WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...

#120
gabel23

Posted 22 February 2018 - 12:43 PM

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Looks like the dreaded Platte river is the dividing line between where the WSW was hoisted earlier today. Places along and to the northwest of the river in a watch for Saturday. 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...A mix of light snow or light freezing drizzle this
afternoon. Additional snow accumulations less than one inch and
ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected. These amounts
are most likely where precipitation is most persistent. Then
heavy snow expected Friday night into Saturday. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze are possible. Strong winds will not be an issue with this
event.



#121
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 12:55 PM

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WOAH! Winter Storm Watch for Norfolk. They need another big storm, they've been so starved of big storms these past few Winters.

 

 

/s


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#122
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:01 PM

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Nam looks different

#123
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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Nam looks different

It sure does, it's South a bit. Just enough South to put us on the right side of the precip. But barely.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#124
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:04 PM

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Nam

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#125
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:18 PM

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Oof. Decreases amounts so us being on the snow side is meaningless lol.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#126
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:20 PM

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3km NAM is slightly better, gives us 2" from this wave. Still not preferable. I want more from a system like this.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#127
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:22 PM

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Got busy, just saw that I was put in a Winter Storm Watch.

 

NWS Hastings:

 

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...
Heavy snow expected Friday night into Saturday. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8
inches. Strong winds will not be an issue with this event.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Nebraska late this
afternoon. Then along and northwest of a line from Cambridge to
Kearney to Fullerton Friday night into Saturday.

* WHEN...Winter Storm Watch, from late Friday night
through Saturday afternoon.


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#128
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Getting very light rain here now. Greatttt.

30.6°F.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#129
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:47 PM

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GFS coming in farther SE/weaker

#130
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:57 PM

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GFS coming in farther SE/weaker


6z and 18z runs have been a bit lower on snow and weaker than the other runs. Pretty consistent pattern.

#131
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:57 PM

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MPX saying blizzard conditions possible on Saturday night, and 12” totals looking likely

#132
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Decent shift SE

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#133
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:03 PM

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18z GFS total snow

Attached Files



#134
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Why do you use total snow?

#135
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:21 PM

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I don’t know. Maybe to see how much total snow is going to fall over the next 90 hours? Otherwise I’m at a loss.

#136
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:22 PM

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I don’t know. Maybe to see how much total snow is going to fall over the next 90 hours? Otherwise I’m at a loss.

Lol well the map you posted includes the snow tonight so it’s pretty misleading to posters in here who think that’s just for this system

For example gfs has 4-6 in your area within the next 12 hours. So 24 hour maps is the best way to go if you post a map in this thread

#137
bud2380

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:24 PM

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this pretty well covers just this storm from the 18z.  

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png


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#138
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:31 PM

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Lol well the map you posted includes the snow tonight so it’s pretty misleading to posters in here who think that’s just for this system
For example gfs has 4-6 in your area within the next 12 hours. So 24 hour maps is the best way to go if you post a map in this thread


Haha. Coming from the guy that didn’t want to start a storm thread. Now you’re going to police my map? You should be a mod. Sorry to anyone that I misled with my map.
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#139
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:35 PM

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Haha. Coming from the guy that didn’t want to start a storm thread. Now you’re going to police my map? You should be a mod. Sorry to anyone that I misled with my map.


Coming from the guy who didn’t believe the gfs a few days ago but now riding it...

#140
Stormgeek

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:36 PM

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With any luck 18z is just following the pattern and the 00z will also follow its pattern with the higher totals.



#141
jcwxguy

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:38 PM

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And hopefully slightly se to get us in the good stuff

#142
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:45 PM

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Coming from the guy who didn’t believe the gfs a few days ago but now riding it...


It’s a weather forum, not a drama series. I’m done.
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#143
Tony

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:51 PM

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I think Chicago sits in a great position with this upcoming storm :D



#144
snowstorm83

Posted 22 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

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It’s a weather forum, not a drama series. I’m done.


Have you ever visited the Pacific Northwest subforum? We got nothing on them LOL
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#145
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 03:13 PM

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Have you ever visited the Pacific Northwest subforum? We got nothing on them LOL

Basically it's an amplified version of Snowlover76 vs. Money in there.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#146
NEJeremy

Posted 22 February 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Haha. Coming from the guy that didn’t want to start a storm thread. Now you’re going to police my map? You should be a mod. Sorry to anyone that I misled with my map.

You didn't mislead anyone. It says right on your map you posted, "TOTAL ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL". Anyone paying attention knows that would be both storms. It's all good. ;)


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#147
Snowlover76

Posted 22 February 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Basically it's an amplified version of Snowlover76 vs. Money in there.


I wouldn't be so hostile to money if he wasn't such a jerk

#148
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 05:33 PM

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I wouldn't be so hostile to money if he wasn't such a jerk


You’re cool in my book cuz of your political views

#149
Money

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:45 PM

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GFS coming in weaker and east again

#150
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Not exactly the GFS run Nebraskans wanted. Weaker again.