February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

Hastings NWS morning disco:

 

Precipitation amounts:
Forecast models have been indicating lower precipitation amounts
the last several runs and this is not surprising given that this
will be a rather quick moving open wave. Our bigger winter storms
tend to be the slow moving cut off upper lows, which this is not.
In addition, the temperature profile is not very favorable for
good dendritic growth even where it is cold enough to snow. There
will likely still be some twists and turns in the this forecast so
keep up to date with forecast updates. Our current forecast will
continue to follow the model consensus with the heaviest
precipitation expected across our northwestern zones with snowfall
amounts of 2-5 inches. Our Kansas counties up to around Geneva
Nebraska will generally see less than 1 inch of snow, but could
see up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Somewhere in
the middle around Hastings we could see 2-3 inches of snow along
with some freezing rain.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Advisory here...better then nothing! Couldnt buy ond of those last winter!

[NEJeremy]

Yep another 1-3” snowfall coming. Nickel and dimers, nickel and dimers. I’ve had one snowfall bigger than 3” all winter and that was 4” I believe. What a joke! In fact it looks like the NWS has only had to copy and paste their last 3 forecasts for storms moving through. 2” of snow and .2” of ice.

[Minny_Weather]

Yay another sub-20" snow season in the making!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM is nothing to write home about.  Been an interesting, cold winter with many nickel and dimers as was mentioned above.  However, so far it is the winter of storms that could have been but fizzled out, at least around here. 

[Minny_Weather]

Ratios are gonna be garbage with this lol

 

3km NAM takes forever to change the ptype to snow, so we get 5 hours of snowfall and only an inch.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like some nice convective-looking banding showing up on the 3km NAM

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals.

[St Paul Storm]

I think MPX converts the watch into an advisory this afternoon. Looks like this event should be about the same as the one that rolled through last night.

[Minny_Weather]

You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals.

What are you talking about? We're still well below average. Just because it's better than last Winter doesn't make it acceptable. Last Winter was 0.4" from being record low, it's not hard to beat last Winter.

[Tabitha]

Yay another sub-20" snow season in the making!

 

 

Move north...

[Tabitha]

Move north...

 

Since the odds of Lincoln suddenly becoming Marquette are not good...

[Minny_Weather]

Move north...

Below 20" two straight seasons, and 4 out of the past 5 is not normal. Especially considering average is ~26". There's nothing "Move North" about that, madame.

 

Obviously, we can recover, but time is running out.

[Tabitha]

Below 20" two straight seasons, and 4 out of the past 5 is not normal. Especially considering average is ~26". There's nothing "Move North" about that, madame.

 

Obviously, we can recover, but time is running out.

 

 

There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. 

 

Every area gets them.

 

It is made up for by the above average intervals.

[Tabitha]

There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. 

 

Every area gets them.

 

It is made up for by the above average intervals.

 

Unless, of course, there is some noteworthy climatological change afoot; which is not entirely out of the question...

 

Since most climate records are under 100 years in length; we only have the shortest of samples regarding what constitutes the general climatic conditions at any given venue.

 

Thus we have but the tiniest of snapshots; and to draw conclusions about what is and is not standard weather at any one place is a bit of a leap.

 

The longer a place's climate record; the more genuine insight we have regarding the actual average weather conditions at such a venue.

[snowstorm83]

It is made up for by the above average intervals.

 

Except Lincoln doesn't get those

[Tabitha]

Except Lincoln doesn't get those

 

Snowfall

Lincoln Airport:

 

2000-01: 37.9"

2001-02: 29.5"

2002-03: 31.7"

2003-04: 35.9"

[Tabitha]

Snowfall

Lincoln Airport:

 

1981-82: 32.3"

1982-83: 38.0"

1983-84: 47.5"

[Minny_Weather]

There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. 

 

Every area gets them.

 

It is made up for by the above average intervals.

If you acknowledge it's a below normal interval why did you tell me to move North?

[snowstorm83]

I noticed only an advisory for Norfolk. OAX went soft.....literally. 

[Tabitha]

If you acknowledge it's a below normal interval why did you tell me to move North?

 

 

If you enjoy the snow; even the average for Lincoln (about 27" I suppose); would be unsatisfactory.

[Minny_Weather]

If you enjoy the snow; even the average for Lincoln (about 27" I suppose); would be unsatisfactory.

There's many more reasons I live here than snow. Also, I'd be satisfied with 27" coming from Houston. This is only my second year here.

[Tabitha]

There's many more reasons I live here than snow. Also, I'd be satisfied with 27" coming from Houston. This is only my second year here.

 

That's fine.

 

To each his own.

 

Most views and opinions are subjective.

[Minny_Weather]

I noticed only an advisory for Norfolk. OAX went soft.....literally. 

After seeing the NAMily I can't say I blame them.

[Bryan1117]

You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals.

I agree Craig, this Winter despite it being underwhelming snowfall-wise, has been better than last year. Even though I did enjoy the February torch/heat wave last year versus this year’s cold and very icy February.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro - I was hoping for a miracle, didn't happen.  I think we can put this storm to bed for Nebraska, especially Central and Eastern.  Not a bad look out west and north, same areas that keep getting hit over and over this winter. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL

[gosaints]

Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL

I flew over omaha.  Still looked pretty domey

[Tabitha]

Since the odds of Lincoln suddenly becoming Marquette are not good...

 

And right on cue; the 12z Euro with at least 40 inches of snow in Marquette the next 9 days...

[Tabitha]

Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL

 

Even with a good beginning

Its not certain that your winning!

[gosaints]

Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL

How much for you??  I guess the question becomes would rather have the EURO painting .5QPF in your backyard or getting fringed by .2 inches of QPF?

[St Paul Storm]

How much for you??  I guess the question becomes would rather have the EURO painting .5QPF in your backyard or getting fringed by .2 inches of QPF?

This. Should have a double digit combined snowfall from yesterday and tomorrow. Im sure he’d take that if given the option.

[St Paul Storm]

From the noon aviation update:

Temperatures tonight will then plummet into the single

digits above and below zero, well below current dew point values.

This should result in widespread freezing fog tonight, which will

likely be dense in some locations. Some improvement Saturday

morning, before a wall of snow arrives mid afternoon. Conditions

are expected to deteriorate rapidly by Saturday evening with 1 to

2 inch per hour rates possible until 06Z Sunday.

[St Paul Storm]

I think MPX converts the watch into an advisory this afternoon. Looks like this event should be about the same as the one that rolled through last night.

Wrong. MPX upgraded to a warning. Going with widespread 6-9”.

[Money]

Way too bullish

[Stormgeek]

MSP pulled the trigger on a winter storm warning. Calling for 5-8. I'll take it!

 

Got ninjad.

[St Paul Storm]

MSP pulled the trigger on a winter storm warning. Calling for 5-8. I'll take it!

Got ninjad.

Weird. Part of their wording says 6-9” and then the actual WSW says 5-8”. Either way, it’s gonna snow again. Gotta love it. Good luck up your way.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota. 

[gosaints]

I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota.

How much under the dome?

[St Paul Storm]

From MPX:

Not too much has changed from the previous forecast. NAM/NAMnest

remain strong/western outliers. The ECMWF and GFS may not be quite

strong enough, but generally have good support with their

ensembles. Continued a general blend of solutions, which aligned

quite well with the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. This resulted in a

continuation of 6 to 8 inches for southern/eastern MN and western WI,

and 4 to 6 inches to the west and east of there. Similar to last

night, it isn`t impossible to see higher totals (in this case closer

to 9 inches) on a localized scale given the rates and banding

expected. Those areas won`t be known until hi-res models begin to

get ahold of the event tonight and tomorrow. Upgraded to a warning

in the locations with 6-7+ inches, and an advisory where we should

remain just below 6. The headlines extend several hours past the

time snow is expected to end due to winds increasing and blowing

snow ramping up for a few hours after.