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March 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 05:19 AM

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It has been a rather volatile winter season this year with large swings in temps and periods of wintry weather which are typical in La Nina winters.  As we put met winter to rest, who is ready for met Spring?  Well, those who are looking for an early start to Spring (unlike last year which began in earnest in February) this year will likely paint a different story.  Is it going to roar like a Lion at the open???  There is a storm which fits the LRC pattern and will likely become a large impacting system across the Plains/MW region to open up the month.   The active pattern is not going to let up as March Madness will be the theme, centering most of the exciting weather across our sub forum.

 

I strongly believe this month will be packed with winter storms (possible blizzard or two?), severe wx, cold start...warm finish???  The magnitude of high latitude blocking that will has become established early this month will set the stage for an active storm track across our sub forum. 

 

I'm encouraged to see the moisture pattern show signs of it retrograding back farther west into the Plains if you take a look at the latest CFSv2 trends.  Based on the LRC pattern, and where I believe we are heading, these maps look good to me.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201803.gif

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201803.gif

 



#2
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 05:46 AM

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The latest JMA weeklies pretty much agree with the CFSv2 on how the pattern will look during the first half of the month, however, the differences are noteable for the second half per the JMA.  Here's where I think the CFSv2 may be having some problems and its partly due to the -NAO block.  The JMA is suggesting the second half of the month to park a trough in the east while the CFSv2 is suggesting a ridge build to build in.  I will say, this does fit the pattern towards the later part of the month, however, I like how the JMA weeklies is showing the SW ridge blossom which has been a common feature during this year's pattern.  

 

Here are the maps showing the -NAO block second half of the month...boy, this is going to be one wild month of weather.  Buckle up!

 

DWolB7SVwAIsR_g.jpg

 

DWolCvFVoAAVlAr.jpg

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#3
Hawkeye

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:08 AM

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#4
Tom

Posted 22 February 2018 - 07:21 AM

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.


Yup, models are trending better around here and seeing the blocking better which I noted yesterday. I think the 28th/1st storm is still on the table for us.

#5
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 22 February 2018 - 08:52 AM

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.



Coincidentally when I'm gone in whistler. Though that's whistler where they get more snow in a week than we get all season. So I can't be upset because even in "bad" patterns, whistler gets snow.
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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#6
Illinois_WX

Posted 22 February 2018 - 09:08 AM

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Coincidentally when I'm gone in whistler. Though that's whistler where they get more snow in a week than we get all season. So I can't be upset because even in "bad" patterns, whistler gets snow.

 

Was up there for the first time a few months ago, I think you'll forget about Iowa's weather for awhile when you're there :) absolutely incredible area.

 

 

This is probably for the wrong thread, but the 6z GFS (and 12z, though too warm) had the second Colorado low mid next week bombing out over us. It's an absolute dream to even see this, the reflectivity on this run has heavy thundersnow and drops 2' in Eastern Neb. I know it's far out, but it was cool to see!

 

 

Attached File  whet.JPG   110.55KB   0 downloads


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#7
Hawkeye

Posted 22 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

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The 12z Euro just removed the March 1st bowling ball system and gave it to the east coast... just has some light rain passing through the region now.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#8
Tom

Posted 23 February 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Last nights Euro Weeklies actually trended colder across much of our sub and is suggesting an extremely active pattern for the majority of this month.  Yet again, it basically keeps anyone from the central Plains (KS border on north) east and north of the MO border into N IL/S MI within the vicinity of where the mean snow shield falls.  Of note, the model is agreeing with the CFSv2 that AN precip anomalies are centered across NE and also across the OV and southern Plains.  There are some intrusions of warmth around the 20th or so (just in time for the Spring equinox) through the end of the month which fits what I think will happen.  We should see a volatile month in terms of temps as has been the case this winter.



#9
Tom

Posted 23 February 2018 - 04:53 AM

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Euro Weeklies mean temp...

 

DWrXlslU0AEkaV0.jpg



#10
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:12 AM

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12z GFS with a 984 in S/C Iowa on March 1. Talk about in like a lion....

#11
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:17 AM

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12z GFS with a 984 in S/C Iowa

Yeesh they can't catch a break.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#12
Hawkeye

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:56 AM

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The ICON and GDPS don't do much with the March 1st system, mostly sliding some weaker energy south of the region.  The 00z Euro came back north and stronger, and the GFS and UK have a good system.  Unfortunately, there's just no cold air except at the nw and w edges of the precip shield.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#13
james1976

Posted 23 February 2018 - 09:17 AM

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12z GFS with a 984 in S/C Iowa on March 1. Talk about in like a lion....

#IowaLowMagnet
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#14
GDR

Posted 23 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Trust me you can have it! Bring on spring

#15
james1976

Posted 23 February 2018 - 11:14 AM

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Trust me you can have it! Bring on spring

Haha my point is that every slp seems to track over IA therefore i get little to no snow.

#16
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 11:16 AM

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Nice hit for Norfolk, Nebraska on the 12z Euro with another 20 inches of snow (at least).

 

I've heard that is a popular town.



#17
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 February 2018 - 11:48 AM

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Nice hit for Norfolk, Nebraska on the 12z Euro with another 20 inches of snow (at least).

I've heard that is a popular town.


I've heard they have a good Casey's there. And McDonald's.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#18
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 12:09 PM

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I've heard they have a good Casey's there. And McDonald's.

 

I went to a Burger King a few months ago as I drove across America.

 

I asked in the drive-thru for a "Big Mac" and the attendant said that those were only sold at McDonalds...

 

I told him its all the same to me...


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#19
FarmerRick

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:04 PM

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Another near 5" snow for Lincoln... Lock it in!!  :D

 

snku_024h.us_c.png



#20
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:13 PM

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Lincoln Airport has seen 2.1" of snow the last 4 days; while Omaha has seen 1.6" of snow...so there has been snow in the air lately.

 

Norfolk, NE has seen 1.5 inches; so they are in 3rd place.

 

Coming in second

Wouldn't be the worst

As long as no one

Else was first!



#21
Tom

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Through the first 10/11 days of this month, I'm expecting to see at least 3 bowling ball systems and some members on here out in NE/IA/MN are going to be pretty darn close to being near the epicenter of direct hits.  The forthcoming pattern will set up noteworthy corridor of strong systems across the central CONUS, of which, we have not seen all season long.  I haven't seen such a blocked up pattern in years which will slow these systems down to a crawl caused by a likely historic  -NAO.  Buckle up.



#22
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:17 PM

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 Buckle up.

 

My Father warned me never to wear a seatbelt.  He said if the car goes off a bridge, I will be trapped and drown.

 

I have always obeyed Him.

 

Probably the only person I ever did obey...



#23
gabel23

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:22 PM

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My father warned me never to wear a seatbelt.  He said if the car goes off a bridge, I will be trapped and drown.

 

I have always obeyed Him.

 

Probably the only person I ever did obey...

On the other hand; if your car runs into a bridge going 65 mph the car stops. Of course, Newton's 1st law of motion will take into affect and if your not a part of the car that suddenly goes to 0 mph you continue at 65 mph, propelling you through the windshield and into the water below. You are knocked out cold, fall into the water and drown anyway. Would you call this a paradox or a catch 22? 


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#24
snowstorm83

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:26 PM

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Last year my brakes failed and I rear ended someone going about 55. No injuries, but if I wasn't wearing a seatbelt I probably would've ended up in the backseat of the lady's car.


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#25
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:32 PM

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On the other hand; if your car runs into a bridge going 65 mph the car stops. Of course, Newton's 1st law of motion will take into affect and if your not a part of the car that suddenly goes to 0 mph you continue at 65 mph, propelling you through the windshield and into the water below. You are knocked out cold, fall into the water and drown anyway. Would you call this a paradox or a catch 22? 

 

Well that is not guaranteed; for it operates under the fanciful assumption that the boundaries of the bridge will not give way.

 

Moreover it necessarily postulates a rather direct hit with the railing rather than the far more likely scenario...some sort of a brushing.

 

For if one is driving parallel rather than perpendicular to the boundaries (as would be the ordinary case)...a direct hit is a rather unlikely proposition.

 

But assuming arguendo that they hold (and that is a rather risky assumption)...being catapulted through the windshield is not assured....you may stay in the vehicle...wherein a "seatbelt" may very well encumber thy egress from the aforementioned vehicle; thus delaying your exit and potentially causing you to be stuck whilst the gas tank gets ready to ignite...thus sending you up in a large ball of smoke & fire and sending you to Eternity; the likes of which will not be seen till Kingdom Come...



#26
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:44 PM

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My Father warned me never to wear a seatbelt.  He said if the car goes off a bridge, I will be trapped and drown.

 

I have always obeyed Him.

 

Probably the only person I ever did obey...

 

 

My Father was very brilliant.

 

He knew Everything there was to know.

 

He always told me that there was no one smarter than me....at least once a day.

 

I cannot ever recall the two of us having an argument.



#27
LNK_Weather

Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:06 PM

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My Father was very brilliant.

 

He knew Everything there was to know.

 

He always told me that there was no one smarter than me....at least once a day.

 

I cannot ever recall the two of us having an argument.

He was definitely wrong about the seat belt thing.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#28
Tabitha

Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:12 PM

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He was definitely wrong about the seat belt thing.

 

You are entitled to your opinion...no matter how wrong it may be.

 

I hope this closes the matter...as a never-ending debate upon the utilitarian & deleterious aspects of the "seat belt" would constitute the most pedantic of affairs.



#29
Money

Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:18 PM

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That’s quite the storm on the gfs for next week

#30
Tony

Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:25 PM

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That’s quite the storm on the gfs for next week

Likely be mostly rain with a little snow for our area but for you farther north it should be a good hit.



#31
Money

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:13 PM

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Gfs crushes WI and parts of IA/MN etc for Wed-Thu

Thing bombs out and draws in its own cold air

https://www.tropical...18022400&fh=138

#32
gosaints

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:15 PM

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Gfs crushes WI and parts of IA/MN etc for Wed-Thu

Thing bombs out and draws in its own cold air

https://www.tropical...18022400&fh=138


Take that with a grain of salt

#33
Money

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Take that with a grain of salt


Yeah won’t happen

Icon shows something similar also

#34
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:18 PM

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Cutting across E IA? All seems in order here.

 

Though the GFS has had a tendency to over amplify SLPs recently, so take that with a mountain of salt. Granted I do think we are probably too far south and east for meaningful snow.


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2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#35
Money

Posted 23 February 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Quite the qpf total

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#36
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:30 AM

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​It will prolly trend north. Doubt that qpf happens. GFS is turning into the NAM. Always amped up 


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#37
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:04 AM

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Gfs is really consistent

986 L just west of Chicago

#38
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:24 AM

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gosaints crush job

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

GEM crushes western/NW WI


https://www.tropical...18022412&fh=138
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#39
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Some wild times ahead across the upper Midwest into the first week of March it appears. Insane totals on the GFS and GEM. Probably won’t happen to the extent as depicted this morning, but still.

MN, WI and N IA crushers. GFS says Gosaints needs help digging out and GEM blows Eau Claire off the map.
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#40
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:10 AM

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Ukie coming in stronger with a 993 L in NW IL. Much stronger than 0z

#41
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Pretty good consistency on gfs ensembles

https://www.tropical...18022412&fh=132

.75-1 QPF 4-5 days out

#42
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:45 AM

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I fired up a thread for the next large scale storm mid/late next week...

 

http://theweatherfor...d-storm-system/



#43
gimmesnow

Posted 24 February 2018 - 12:39 PM

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March 5th looks like a pattern change, no? I see a band of snow coming out of the NW, instead of this crap from the SW we've been getting. Looking at GFS we are looking good that time.

 

I have just been hoping for the rain to stay away, and for some good sub-20 lows so they can blow some snow. But it actually looks like we might be getting more than that.

 

I'm not going to complain, but this new "February thaw" pattern we get into, when we get warmth and a big rain on President's Day, is total garbage. I hope it goes away next year, I spend the last 3 weeks of snowboarding feeling like it's all going to end that week.


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#44
SE Wisconsin

Posted 24 February 2018 - 06:20 PM

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March 5th looks like a pattern change, no? I see a band of snow coming out of the NW, instead of this crap from the SW we've been getting. Looking at GFS we are looking good that time.

 

I have just been hoping for the rain to stay away, and for some good sub-20 lows so they can blow some snow. But it actually looks like we might be getting more than that.

 

I'm not going to complain, but this new "February thaw" pattern we get into, when we get warmth and a big rain on President's Day, is total garbage. I hope it goes away next year, I spend the last 3 weeks of snowboarding feeling like it's all going to end that week.

Man, I hear you!  I'm a cross-country skier but it's the same issues.  However, I doubt that they will fire up the snow guns again out at Lapham Peak on the man-made snow loops for cross country skiing.  They were trashed after this week's rains.  I'm hoping for a good snow storm or two in early March and some unseasonably cold temps to hold the snow for at least a week.  I want to get out on the trails here in SE WI one last time!


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#45
WBadgersW

Posted 24 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Lapham has snow machines? Huh did not know that.

#46
gimmesnow

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Man, I hear you!  I'm a cross-country skier but it's the same issues.  However, I doubt that they will fire up the snow guns again out at Lapham Peak on the man-made snow loops for cross country skiing.  They were trashed after this week's rains.  I'm hoping for a good snow storm or two in early March and some unseasonably cold temps to hold the snow for at least a week.  I want to get out on the trails here in SE WI one last time!

 

I don't know how that situation is. I know ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, all the SE Wisconsin ski resorts have been in a massive race to blow snow the earliest and end the latest. My home hill is Alpine Valley, years ago, they would never blow snow after President's Day. I was talking with some friends who work there Friday, they are waiting to blow snow first chance they can get, and they are pretty dead set on trying to make a St Patrick's Day season end.

 

Keep your eyes open, things have changed in the last few years, snow making has gotten a lot more aggressive and times when no one would blow snow 5 years ago, now everyone blows snow. Not sure how it will work for cross country, but SE Wisconsin resorts have been in power blow mode for a few years, it's been awesome.



#47
SE Wisconsin

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:28 AM

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I don't know how that situation is. I know ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, all the SE Wisconsin ski resorts have been in a massive race to blow snow the earliest and end the latest. My home hill is Alpine Valley, years ago, they would never blow snow after President's Day. I was talking with some friends who work there Friday, they are waiting to blow snow first chance they can get, and they are pretty dead set on trying to make a St Patrick's Day season end.

 

Keep your eyes open, things have changed in the last few years, snow making has gotten a lot more aggressive and times when no one would blow snow 5 years ago, now everyone blows snow. Not sure how it will work for cross country, but SE Wisconsin resorts have been in power blow mode for a few years, it's been awesome.

Things are quite different at Lapham Peak.  It is a state park and the snow making effort there is funded entirely by donations.  Also,a lot of the snow making, and even some of the grooming, is actually done by volunteers.  So asking those volunteers to haul out the snow guns one last time so late in the season may be asking too much.  However, there may be a financial incentive to do so.  Every time I've gone skiing there this season the parking lot has been nearly full.  Lapham has to be the largest revenue generating park for the state of WI during the winter months.   But I'm hoping Mother Nature will turn her snow guns on one last time so I'm not just limited to a 2.1k snow-making loop.



#48
gimmesnow

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Things are quite different at Lapham Peak.  It is a state park and the snow making effort there is funded entirely by donations.  Also,a lot of the snow making, and even some of the grooming, is actually done by volunteers.  So asking those volunteers to haul out the snow guns one last time so late in the season may be asking too much.  However, there may be a financial incentive to do so.  Every time I've gone skiing there this season the parking lot has been nearly full.  Lapham has to be the largest revenue generating park for the state of WI during the winter months.   But I'm hoping Mother Nature will turn her snow guns on one last time so I'm not just limited to a 2.1k snow-making loop.

 

They definitely won't blow then. Blowing snow is super expensive. It costs around $10,000 a night to run all 150 snow guns at AV. Luckily, latest Euro has some good news for us, hopefully things continue this way.

 

Personally, I can't believe there's a remote chance of snowmobiling a little more. This last week has really sucked the winter out of me, but it's not over yet.



#49
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:58 AM

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Those of you looking for snow in WI, today's 12z EPS just got a lot snowier over the next 10 days compared to previous runs and that also includes IA/N IL/N IN/MI posters.



#50
NEJeremy

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:59 PM

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A week of 40s and 50s coming up here. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the switch to spring around these parts. March definitely not coming in like a lion, but that fits with the rest of this lame winter!