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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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It has been a rather volatile winter season this year with large swings in temps and periods of wintry weather which are typical in La Nina winters.  As we put met winter to rest, who is ready for met Spring?  Well, those who are looking for an early start to Spring (unlike last year which began in earnest in February) this year will likely paint a different story.  Is it going to roar like a Lion at the open???  There is a storm which fits the LRC pattern and will likely become a large impacting system across the Plains/MW region to open up the month.   The active pattern is not going to let up as March Madness will be the theme, centering most of the exciting weather across our sub forum.

 

I strongly believe this month will be packed with winter storms (possible blizzard or two?), severe wx, cold start...warm finish???  The magnitude of high latitude blocking that will has become established early this month will set the stage for an active storm track across our sub forum. 

 

I'm encouraged to see the moisture pattern show signs of it retrograding back farther west into the Plains if you take a look at the latest CFSv2 trends.  Based on the LRC pattern, and where I believe we are heading, these maps look good to me.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201803.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201803.gif

 

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The latest JMA weeklies pretty much agree with the CFSv2 on how the pattern will look during the first half of the month, however, the differences are noteable for the second half per the JMA.  Here's where I think the CFSv2 may be having some problems and its partly due to the -NAO block.  The JMA is suggesting the second half of the month to park a trough in the east while the CFSv2 is suggesting a ridge build to build in.  I will say, this does fit the pattern towards the later part of the month, however, I like how the JMA weeklies is showing the SW ridge blossom which has been a common feature during this year's pattern.  

 

Here are the maps showing the -NAO block second half of the month...boy, this is going to be one wild month of weather.  Buckle up!

 

DWolB7SVwAIsR_g.jpg

 

DWolCvFVoAAVlAr.jpg

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.

Yup, models are trending better around here and seeing the blocking better which I noted yesterday. I think the 28th/1st storm is still on the table for us.

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The rest of February looks rather blah around here, but the euro ensembles are colder and snowier during week 2 in early March.

 

Coincidentally when I'm gone in whistler. Though that's whistler where they get more snow in a week than we get all season. So I can't be upset because even in "bad" patterns, whistler gets snow.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Coincidentally when I'm gone in whistler. Though that's whistler where they get more snow in a week than we get all season. So I can't be upset because even in "bad" patterns, whistler gets snow.

 

Was up there for the first time a few months ago, I think you'll forget about Iowa's weather for awhile when you're there :) absolutely incredible area.

 

 

This is probably for the wrong thread, but the 6z GFS (and 12z, though too warm) had the second Colorado low mid next week bombing out over us. It's an absolute dream to even see this, the reflectivity on this run has heavy thundersnow and drops 2' in Eastern Neb. I know it's far out, but it was cool to see!

 

 

whet.JPG

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The 12z Euro just removed the March 1st bowling ball system and gave it to the east coast... just has some light rain passing through the region now.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last nights Euro Weeklies actually trended colder across much of our sub and is suggesting an extremely active pattern for the majority of this month.  Yet again, it basically keeps anyone from the central Plains (KS border on north) east and north of the MO border into N IL/S MI within the vicinity of where the mean snow shield falls.  Of note, the model is agreeing with the CFSv2 that AN precip anomalies are centered across NE and also across the OV and southern Plains.  There are some intrusions of warmth around the 20th or so (just in time for the Spring equinox) through the end of the month which fits what I think will happen.  We should see a volatile month in terms of temps as has been the case this winter.

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The ICON and GDPS don't do much with the March 1st system, mostly sliding some weaker energy south of the region.  The 00z Euro came back north and stronger, and the GFS and UK have a good system.  Unfortunately, there's just no cold air except at the nw and w edges of the precip shield.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I've heard they have a good Casey's there. And McDonald's.

 

I went to a Burger King a few months ago as I drove across America.

 

I asked in the drive-thru for a "Big Mac" and the attendant said that those were only sold at McDonalds...

 

I told him its all the same to me...

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Lincoln Airport has seen 2.1" of snow the last 4 days; while Omaha has seen 1.6" of snow...so there has been snow in the air lately.

 

Norfolk, NE has seen 1.5 inches; so they are in 3rd place.

 

Coming in second

Wouldn't be the worst

As long as no one

Else was first!

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Through the first 10/11 days of this month, I'm expecting to see at least 3 bowling ball systems and some members on here out in NE/IA/MN are going to be pretty darn close to being near the epicenter of direct hits.  The forthcoming pattern will set up noteworthy corridor of strong systems across the central CONUS, of which, we have not seen all season long.  I haven't seen such a blocked up pattern in years which will slow these systems down to a crawl caused by a likely historic  -NAO.  Buckle up.

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My father warned me never to wear a seatbelt.  He said if the car goes off a bridge, I will be trapped and drown.

 

I have always obeyed Him.

 

Probably the only person I ever did obey...

On the other hand; if your car runs into a bridge going 65 mph the car stops. Of course, Newton's 1st law of motion will take into affect and if your not a part of the car that suddenly goes to 0 mph you continue at 65 mph, propelling you through the windshield and into the water below. You are knocked out cold, fall into the water and drown anyway. Would you call this a paradox or a catch 22? 

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Last year my brakes failed and I rear ended someone going about 55. No injuries, but if I wasn't wearing a seatbelt I probably would've ended up in the backseat of the lady's car.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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On the other hand; if your car runs into a bridge going 65 mph the car stops. Of course, Newton's 1st law of motion will take into affect and if your not a part of the car that suddenly goes to 0 mph you continue at 65 mph, propelling you through the windshield and into the water below. You are knocked out cold, fall into the water and drown anyway. Would you call this a paradox or a catch 22? 

 

Well that is not guaranteed; for it operates under the fanciful assumption that the boundaries of the bridge will not give way.

 

Moreover it necessarily postulates a rather direct hit with the railing rather than the far more likely scenario...some sort of a brushing.

 

For if one is driving parallel rather than perpendicular to the boundaries (as would be the ordinary case)...a direct hit is a rather unlikely proposition.

 

But assuming arguendo that they hold (and that is a rather risky assumption)...being catapulted through the windshield is not assured....you may stay in the vehicle...wherein a "seatbelt" may very well encumber thy egress from the aforementioned vehicle; thus delaying your exit and potentially causing you to be stuck whilst the gas tank gets ready to ignite...thus sending you up in a large ball of smoke & fire and sending you to Eternity; the likes of which will not be seen till Kingdom Come...

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My Father warned me never to wear a seatbelt.  He said if the car goes off a bridge, I will be trapped and drown.

 

I have always obeyed Him.

 

Probably the only person I ever did obey...

 

 

My Father was very brilliant.

 

He knew Everything there was to know.

 

He always told me that there was no one smarter than me....at least once a day.

 

I cannot ever recall the two of us having an argument.

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My Father was very brilliant.

 

He knew Everything there was to know.

 

He always told me that there was no one smarter than me....at least once a day.

 

I cannot ever recall the two of us having an argument.

He was definitely wrong about the seat belt thing.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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He was definitely wrong about the seat belt thing.

 

You are entitled to your opinion...no matter how wrong it may be.

 

I hope this closes the matter...as a never-ending debate upon the utilitarian & deleterious aspects of the "seat belt" would constitute the most pedantic of affairs.

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Cutting across E IA? All seems in order here.

 

Though the GFS has had a tendency to over amplify SLPs recently, so take that with a mountain of salt. Granted I do think we are probably too far south and east for meaningful snow.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Some wild times ahead across the upper Midwest into the first week of March it appears. Insane totals on the GFS and GEM. Probably won’t happen to the extent as depicted this morning, but still.

 

MN, WI and N IA crushers. GFS says Gosaints needs help digging out and GEM blows Eau Claire off the map.

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