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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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So far this Winter, DC has seen only 1.5" or so. That is one, snowless Winter season, by far. Unless, they picked up a bit more that I am not aware of.

 

I think National (now Reagan) Aiport has about 3 inches of snow this winter.

 

An absolute snow hell.

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I think National (now Reagan) Aiport has about 3 inches of snow this winter.

 

An absolute snow hell.

I agree.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today was the first day in the last 4 days that the sun came up with no snow on the ground. In the last 3 days the sun came with snow on the ground but that snow melted before noon not the case today.  It is sunny here at this time and 31° 

 While the current departure for this March at Grand Rapids is only -0.8° at this time.  Here is a fun fact so far the warmest it has been here at Grand Rapids this March is just 46° The last time we went this late with this low of a warmest day in March is 2007.  

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This morning here in St. Joe we have about 1.5-2" on grassy areas and just enough on pavement to cause glare ice where they didn't bother with salt. This all apparently from overnight squalls? Squalls inland yesterday afternoon were reaching whiteout level at times, but only a temporary coating was resulting on elevated surf's. Now, there's virtually zero useful snow across SMI (at least outside of the Thumb, which in itself is useless for recreational purposes) thus I'd say we're stuck in late winter Purgatory. Useless cold and no green-up either..and it goes on and on and on.. :rolleyes:

 

Edit - 30th day since #realwinter departed rapidly..and we're stuck in a holding pattern like the Ground Hog Day film

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On this date in 1904 Grand Rapids had 10.5″ of snow fall and there was a reported 11″ on the ground.
in 1978 there was 8″ on the ground. In 1959 there was 7″ and in 1960 there was 6″ There were several other years with 4 and 3″ on the ground on March 14th the warmest on this date  2012 when the high reached 80° that was the start of 9 days in a row with temperatures that ranged from 74° all the way up to 87° 

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Extreme Fire Danger in mid March for KS into parts of OK/MO???  Not a good trend at all...

I didn't realize there is another winter storm watch for Northern Nebraska.  Good grief, I would hate to count how many of those they have had this winter.  Same places, different storms.  Kind of like the East Coast lately.

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After yesterday's snow burst, I think I'd be alright if it didn't snow again this season...however, both GFS/EURO suggesting the Spring Solstice Storm to deliver more snow!

 

DYPtvmFW0AE5vyv.jpg

 

I think if I could ride 5 inches of something besides slush and ice in mid-March, I would be ecstatic. Please come like 80 miles north, that's all I need.

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Editorial:

 

The NAM and GFS are both terrible models; exhibiting amazing swings run to run...symptomatic of their own innate inadequacies.

 

They have both proven to be one step above useless when it comes to preparing a forecast.

 

They should be frankly and explicitly abandoned.

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Editorial:

The NAM and GFS are both terrible models; exhibiting amazing swings run to run...symptomatic of their own innate inadequacies.

They have both proven to be one step above useless when it comes to preparing a forecast.

They should be frankly and explicitly abandoned.

The NAM, which replaced the ETA, has always been terrible.

 

But the GFS was actually not bad 10 years ago....making halfway decent forecasts half the time.

 

Then they upgraded it and it has been garbage ever since.

 

In fact, to call it garbage is to flatter it.

 

If I get one more pop-up on this I-pad that says "sign into I-tunes for the Apple Store" I am going to scream.

 

I would like to take this pervasive consumer culture and ship it first class to Alpha Centauri...a one way ticket.

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There was a famous meteorologist named Dave Tolleris (DT) who would quickly ridicule or laugh at anyone who would point to the GFS as proof that there would be a particular outcome.

 

At the time, I did not understand why he would do that as I did not have the experience to show me just how awful it is.

 

But nowadays I can say that DT (an absolutely brilliant person, in many realms, btw) understated the case.

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Canadian even showing a full fledged snowstorm next week.  Huh.  I'm sure this will pan out exactly.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018031412/132/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Yeah that's an extremely realistic outcome for mid-late March.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Canadian even showing a full fledged snowstorm next week.  Huh.  I'm sure this will pan out exactly.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018031412/132/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Even my extended forecast is getting in on this. It's calling for 3 to 9 inches throughout next Friday. That limbo stage between jet skiing/wakeboarding and snowboarding is hell. At least in the fall I can overlap the seasons since the water, while pretty cold, isn't frozen. If they can keep the hill going, I'm ready for this, if it shuts down, it's going to be a long time.

 

I don't know why people give up on the hill in spring. The conditions aren't bad, but they're not as good as usual. But skiing or snowboarding on mediocre snow is a lot better than sitting inside watching TV and playing video games.

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About 2 hours ago, I left for the gym and there was a solid 2.5" of snow OTG at my place.  While driving, I noticed how quickly the snow cover was fading (even about 1 mile away) and by the time I got to the gym on the border of Arlington Hts/Mt Prospect (3.5 mi away), there was zilch!  Ya, I could def see why I had those higher snow reports.

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The 12z Euro is showing a heck of a storm early next week.  Models in general have been suggesting a good low would track just south, but upper energy and a surface trough would hang back through the region.  The new euro goes bonkers with that scenario... the good snow hangs back along the I-80 corridor for a long time.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_150.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_conus_162.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_168.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Euro is showing a heck of a storm early next week. Models in general have been suggesting a good low would track just south, but a surface trough would hang back through the region. The new euro goes bonkers with that scenario... the good snow hangs back along the I-80 corridor for a long time.

Got a map bud? Might have to start a thread for this one tomorrow. FWIW, this system fits in every single LRC cycle and the closest match is cycle #1 which was the GL’s bomb in late Oct.

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My call for a long lasting cold period post Spring Solstice is looking pretty good...CPC agrees it will be cool, at times cold, and wet for the remainder of the month...notable dryness near the TX Panhandle is pretty evident.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

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My call for a long lasting cold period post Spring Solstice is looking pretty good...CPC agrees it will be cool, at times cold, and wet for the remainder of the month...notable dryness near the TX Panhandle is pretty evident.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Pretty easy to see where it will be hot and dry this summer if this is correct.  No thanks.

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Pretty easy to see where it will be hot and dry this summer if this is correct.  No thanks.

Last Summer we couldn't get a 90 degree day to save our lives besides that one heat wave in July. This Summer I think we won't be able to get below 90 to save our lives. Yucky.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The ICON, GDPS, and GFS have now suppressed the big early next week system south of Iowa.  Obviously, I'm hoping the bullish 12z euro has the right idea.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Beautiful day out there. Sunny and crisp w temps in the 30s. Looking forward to the milder air this weekend.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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LI-07b-siberian-Express-620x392.png

 

Now, there is a cool pic. Notice the ice surrounding all of Manhattan.

 

Note: this is not current!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The idea of the central Plains best chance of a widespread soaker is lining up quite well per the latest 12z GEFS as the anticipated Spring Solstice storm bowls its way across the country.  I initially throught the first storm (16th-17th) would be a hard cutter, but the blocking is ending up being stronger and it really fizzles the first storm out this weekend.  However, I did expect back-to-back storms and the focus was on the later to deliver much needed moisture.  I really hope this hold for ya'll out west.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_15.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_21.png

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00z Euro provides a snowstorm for SEMI next week. UGH!!!! This snow should be given to OKwx2k4 who really needs it. My area has gotten enough already.

 

 

@Tabitha....Do you know if Detroit exceeded 60" thus far this Winter? I know it is very close to that number, if not, over it.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Geeze, I sure hope the Euro weeklies are wrong!  Except for SoCal/Desert SW/Southern Plains, everyone else North and East is stuck in a BN pattern through the entire month of April.  Meantime, 00z GEFS/GEPS and practically every model is on board with a heavy precip event across the drought stricken regions of KC/NE through mid next week.  I'm glad to see this storm system come into fruition.

 

 

gem-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

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Geeze, I sure hope the Euro weeklies are wrong!  Except for SoCal/Desert SW/Southern Plains, everyone else North and East is stuck in a BN pattern through the entire month of April.  Meantime, 00z GEFS/GEPS and practically every model is on board with a heavy precip event across the drought stricken regions of KC/NE through mid next week.  I'm glad to see this storm system come into fruition.

 

 

gem-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_20.png

Looks good Tom.  

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