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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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00z Euro provides a snowstorm for SEMI next week. UGH!!!! This snow should be given to OKwx2k4 who really needs it. My area has gotten enough already.

 

 

@Tabitha....Do you know if Detroit exceeded 60" thus far this Winter? I know it is very close to that number, if not, over it.

Not Tabitha but as of today (March 16, 2018) No Detroit is not over 60" for this winter season it now stands at 58.6" at Metro. And a reported 44.4" at Grosse Point.

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The storm coming on Sunday night into Monday looks like a better moisture producer for Nebraska and Kansas than the current one, low a little farther south on NAM with that storm instead of the dry slot now.  12Z NAM even puts some snow down that looks like it would be heavy and wet.  Would love it for precipitation.

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It was cold in Michigan’s UP over night and into the early AM of Friday. The temp. dipped to -1 at Houghton, -3 at Ironwood and -6 at Champion. Here's Michigan snow cover this (Fri.) AM: Painesdale 40", Grand Marais 37", Munising 33", Copper Harbor 32", Calumet 30", Atlantic Mine 28", Herman 27", Marquette and Harvey 25", Jacobsville 22", S. Ste. Marie, Watersmeet, Paulding and Michigamme 19", Ironwood 18", Chatham 16", Cooks 15", Champion and Gladston 14", Rapid River 13", Ontonagon 12", Green Garden 11", Stambaugh and Arnold 9", Norway 8", Gaylord 7", Manistique and Kingsley 6", Onaway and Alpena 5", Maple City 4", Grayling 3", Houghton Lake 1".

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The narrow, overnight band of precip in central Iowa dropped up to 9 inches of snow between Des Moines and Ames.  The band dropped 2.5" just sw of Cedar Rapids, but it didn't make it up here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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At this time it is sunny and a cold 31° here at my house. I had a low of 19° this morning the official low was 22° at the airport. So far this month has a departure from average of -1.4° but the warmest it has gotten is only 46°. The seasons snow fall is at 71.7” with just under half of that falling in December. After a slight warm up this weekend it will turn cold once again but remain dry

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The narrow, overnight band of precip in central Iowa dropped up to 9 inches of snow between Des Moines and Ames. The band dropped 2.5" just sw of Cedar Rapids, but it didn't make it up here.

What!!!? I didnt know this. Im heading to Des Moines later. Interested to see what will be left of it.
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Models are showing a big, complex system crossing the region in 7-8 days.

 

Extended forecast is in on it too, calling for 3-5 Friday then another 3-5 on Saturday. But I think they are being drama queens, the big weather sites always love to play up a late season storm like this.

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Sadly, this will be the only system this month to provide a good chance of any appreciable rains for KS.  Every other system will likely develop to the east and north going forward.  I sure hope the 06zNAM high rez is right...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

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We are now in the 2nd half of March 2018 here in Grand Rapids yesterday was the warmest day this month so far with a high of 53° The departure from average is now at -1.2° and the month has seen 4.9" of snow fall the seasonal total remains at 71.7" Total seasonal snow fall at some other Michigan locations thru March 17th are Muskegon 97.8", Lansing 50.0", Detroit 58.6" Flint 77.4". Saginaw 35.9" Alpena 50.3" (-23.3" less than average) Houghton Lake 40.3" (-19.5" less than average) Sault Ste Marie 95.4" (-13.2" less than average) Gaylord 103.4" (-26.1" less than average) Traverse City 96.3" (+0.6" more then ave) West Branch 32.2" (-14.3" less than ave) Petoskey 107.1" (-10.6" less than ave) and Marquette 132.4" It should be noted that parts of the UP still have over 24" of snow on the ground.

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No one's interested in the weekend disturbance? Or is it just too early. I have a lot riding on this storm, if it's snow, I get to end the snowboard season with an awesome fresh snow weekend. If it's rain, I'm done here and it's the time of the year I stab old man winter in the back and tell him to go away as I get ready for summer stuff.

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With how awful models have performed this winter outside of 72-96 hours (even inside that sometimes) I’m still in wait and see mode for the weekend. I’m hoping to get a decent rainmaker here. No chance at snow where I’m at. Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin could be in play.

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Please verify.

 

Please tell me your post was tongue-in-cheek. Look how the Euro treated our buddy Hawkeye for this weekend's system, and you're looking at d10 maps! 

 

And I'm not saying this cuz I don't wish any snow for you. Actually, I love your enthusiasm for finishing your slope season with a white bang!  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tomorrow may be an interesting weather day here in Central Nebraska. NWS Hastings says it is a very tricky forecast. 1-2 degree difference between rain, or a heavy convective snow. Says forecast is low confidence and could bust. They listed several models that paint 10 inches in my area or 0. 0z NAM and HRRR are both crazy with snow. I just want moisture, any form. Besides, it is supposed to be 70 by Friday. I will update tomorrow what actually occurs. Imo, more rain than snow.

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Tomorrow may be an interesting weather day here in Central Nebraska. NWS Hastings says it is a very tricky forecast. 1-2 degree difference between rain, or a heavy convective snow. Says forecast is low confidence and could bust. They listed several models that paint 10 inches in my area or 0. 0z NAM and HRRR are both crazy with snow. I just want moisture, any form. Besides, it is supposed to be 70 by Friday. I will update tomorrow what actually occurs. Imo, more rain than snow.

I’m happy we are finally getting rain. I’ve been kicking up a ton of dust lately while driving around

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Please tell me your post was tongue-in-cheek. Look how the Euro treated our buddy Hawkeye for this weekend's system, and you're looking at d10 maps!

 

And I'm not saying this cuz I don't wish any snow for you. Actually, I love your enthusiasm for finishing your slope season with a white bang! ;)

Oh,I know it'll probably not happen, but I have that feeling like you're gambling and on your last bet before it's all over.

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Tomorrow may be an interesting weather day here in Central Nebraska. NWS Hastings says it is a very tricky forecast. 1-2 degree difference between rain, or a heavy convective snow. Says forecast is low confidence and could bust. They listed several models that paint 10 inches in my area or 0. 0z NAM and HRRR are both crazy with snow. I just want moisture, any form. Besides, it is supposed to be 70 by Friday. I will update tomorrow what actually occurs. Imo, more rain than snow.

That is one sweet looking blob of moisture on radar across the majority of KS this morning.  Looks like your right on the northern edge of the heavier precip.  Getting any frozen precip??  Radar suggests some snow is falling over Kearney.  Gotta love the spin and look of this system on radar.  Glad to see some of you are cashing in on much needed moisture.  Something tells me this is where systems will track next Autumn/Winter.  Anyhow, this should help alleviate some of the drought conditions but it would certainly help to get a couple more good rain makers this Spring.

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After today's rains, 00z GEFS pretty much sum up where the drought is across the central Plains.  Here is the Day 4-10 precip anomalies suggesting the precip will continue to fall on the periphery of the drought stricken regions.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4.png

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Our school has a 2 hour delayed start as of right now. Snowing like crazy. Looks like 3 or more inches already (guess from bedroom window). Trees drooping with heavy snow on the limbs.

On this last full day of Winter, Ol' Man Winter is giving you a dose of his presence before he lets go for the year in your region.  On the other hand, that may not be the case around here later this weekend!  00z Euro still holding on to the idea of a stripe of accumulating snows from MN into the Lower Lakes...we shall see...

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On this last full day of Winter, Ol' Man Winter is giving you a dose of his presence before he lets go for the year in your region. On the other hand, that may not be the case around here later this weekend! 00z Euro still holding on to the idea of a stripe of accumulating snows from MN into the Lower Lakes...we shall see...

Several schools around here are now closed. Maybe we are next?

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Grand Rapids has a pleasantly mild weekend with a lot of sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 50’s for highs after lows in low to mid 20’s.  It should be noted that the Dew Points have been very low by our standards only in the upper teens to low 20’s,  Todays CFSv2 screams continued on the cold and dry side into the first week of April.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

week 3-4

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

week 1-2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.gif

week 3-4

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

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Spring in Nebraska.  It seems in the last decade or so, our Springs have had worse weather than our Winters.  Track meet scheduled for tomorrow already cancelled.  3-6 inches of extremely heavy, wet snow on the ground.  Where do teams practice?  Golf, Tennis, and Soccer all trying to find indoor places to go.  I don't coach a spring sport, but it can be a challenge for administrators and coaches.  

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GFS has shown heavy snow in Iowa 2 straight runs Friday night into Saturday.  At the very least hopefully we get heavy rain.  A spring snowstorm would be cool and one to remember, but it's extremely rare this time of year this far south in Iowa.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018031912/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Spring in Nebraska.  It seems in the last decade or so, our Springs have had worse weather than our Winters.  Track meet scheduled for tomorrow already cancelled.  3-6 inches of extremely heavy, wet snow on the ground.  Where do teams practice?  Golf, Tennis, and Soccer all trying to find indoor places to go.  I don't coach a spring sport, but it can be a challenge for administrators and coaches.  

You get school cancelled or just the late start?? 

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