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March 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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You get school cancelled or just the late start?? 

We finished with a late start.  Side streets weren't good still at 9 AM.  County roads were/are still a mess, from what I've heard.  Many students not here today due to living in the country.  Schools just west of me, Loomis, Bertrand, Elwood, Eustis-Farnam are all closed. I got to school about 9:15 AM and even the main snow routes still had a lot of slush on them.  Tried to shovel the sidewalk to our garage.  It was like shoveling water.  The moisture content was tremendous.  Now as I look out at 11:55 AM, it is snowing again.  

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GEM and GFS can't make up their minds, one is north of me, the other is south. As much as I love winter, watching these last hope spring storms are the most fun. I know most of you have given up, but if you like snow stuff and that last little storm can save you, it's a ton of fun to watch.

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Euro and GFS not all that dissimilar for nearly 120 hours out.  Just a relatively small difference in placement.  And I know from past experience, the Euro is only ever wrong when it shows snow in Eastern Iowa, so the Euro is right this time.  

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Euro and GFS not all that dissimilar for nearly 120 hours out.  Just a relatively small difference in placement.  And I know from past experience, the Euro is only ever wrong when it shows snow in Eastern Iowa, so the Euro is right this time.  

As long as the EC gets zip out of this is all that really matters.

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:D Marshall enjoyed a gorgeous calm and mild 58F and sunny day Sunday!   :huh: Krazy thing is that the stubborn snow that's been less than 2" on the north shaded side of my garage not only survived, but it looks hardly affected. What's this stuff made of, styro-foam or something?? Sheesh. Wondering now if there's some kind of plastic fibers being added to our atmosphere and getting into our snowfall??  :P  Same here at work. There was solid ice in the parking shaded lot when I stepped outside after 12 pm  :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As long as the EC gets zip out of this is all that really matters.

 

Euro has snow all the way to coastal VA. I would think that's pretty uncommon that far south for so late..that's pretty far south

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Observations say 34 degrees and raining, but looking out my window it is snowing hard.  Heavy snow band is just sitting over Central Nebraska, that sure doesn't happen very often.  Of course it isn't accumulating on the streets at that temperature, but it is adding to what is already on the ground.  What a sight to see in March.  If you look at the GFS, there are a couple more snow opportunities in this area.  We'll see.  The moisture in it is what is most important around here.

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Do these ratios in these maps account for the fact that a lot of the snow won't stick because the ground is so warm? Or does it just take a hard ratio of quantitative precipitation and guess from that? I'm curious, because if the ski hill still has snow on it and is still frozen, won't that mean that there'd be more accumulation on the hill because there wouldn't be as much, or any, melt before it accumulates? Or do these ratios and maps pretend that we'd get 5 inches if it all accumulated properly?

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GEM and GFS can't make up their minds, one is north of me, the other is south. As much as I love winter, watching these last hope spring storms are the most fun. I know most of you have given up, but if you like snow stuff and that last little storm can save you, it's a ton of fun to watch.

 

you mean like snowboarding?  :lol:

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Major snowstorm for the NYC area and surrounding areas with 6"+.

 

NOAA:

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total wet snow accumulations of  5 to 11 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.* WHERE...New York City, the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New  Jersey.* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant  reductions in visibility are possible. A combination of the  heavy wet snow and wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph could bring down  tree limbs and power lines, creating power outages.

They will have nothing otg in 2 days as temps warm up in the 40s with high sun angle as well. No thank you. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dry week here with chilly temps remaining. Hopefully, when I am in NYC for Easter (Orthodox), the weather will be cooperative. Watch me experience a Nor'Easter while I am there w a foot of snow. :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Do these ratios in these maps account for the fact that a lot of the snow won't stick because the ground is so warm? Or does it just take a hard ratio of quantitative precipitation and guess from that? I'm curious, because if the ski hill still has snow on it and is still frozen, won't that mean that there'd be more accumulation on the hill because there wouldn't be as much, or any, melt before it accumulates? Or do these ratios and maps pretend that we'd get 5 inches if it all accumulated properly?

 

The euro snow maps are using a hard 10 to 1 ratio, not accounting for any melting, so they are best used for general intensity and placement of the snow and not specific amounts.

 

The 00z euro is showing the heaviest snow moving through northeast Iowa right smack in the middle of the day, which would certainly limit totals.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_144.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow, that's impressive.  Did it all melt yesterday?

No.  Can't see any grass as of 8:15 AM this morning.  It was still snowing last night after 10 PM.  The heavy snow that fell yesterday afternoon and last night did not accumulate on the streets but I think it added some on the yards.  I was trying to put the snow amount's graphic from the local ABC twitter account but it wouldn't transfer correctly.  It had Lexington at 5.5 inches and Holdrege (where I live) at 5 inches.  I'll have to see other amounts southwest of me as they come in today.

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Today is the epitome of "wasted March cold"...as of 12:05pm CST, it has officially been Spring for 50 minutes and counting...I'd rather see -14F temp departures in DJF, but what can you do???  

 

Yeah, no kiddin, but yby appears to be in play for that stripe of snow (at least per the Euro). Hope you get it and it remains south of mby. I'm sure I'll get one more slapping of the white stuff when I least want it next month.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, hello Spring!

 

Gorgeous outside...plentiful sunshine and temps still a little nippy, holding in the upper 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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These are pics of NJ a friend of mine emailed me.......snowpack is holding on there....with more coming from Tobi.

29432547_10211451526899247_2038216849606

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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attachicon.gifmoisture.png

Beneficial moisture around here in the last 5, mine came with 5 inches of snow.  More please.  I live on the east side of Holdrege NE for map purposes.  Thought it was interesting what they said about Northern Kansas, most moisture in 5 months.  Wow.  

Had another .65" of rain on Sunday night and hadn't checked yet this morning, but it looked like last night's moisture was pretty light and we had a bit of light snow this morning. That map looks pretty accurate for my backyard on the very edge of the right side of the image. I'm in the orange colored spot in Douglas County and not including last nights, I am at about 2.05" the last few days.

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Wanna see real snowstorms...head on out to the EC......

 

NYC will get crushed tomorrow...

 

NOAA:

WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AMEDT THURSDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to  15 inches are expected.* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut  and southeast New York.* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to  impossible, especially during the evening commute. Snow will  develop during the morning and become heavy by afternoon. Expect  significant reductions in visibility at times. A combination of  the heavy snow and wind gusts up to 35 mph could bring down  tree limbs and power lines, creating power outages.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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http://i63.tinypic.com/2dsmr5w.jpg

 

CRUSHED!!!!!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS brings about 1000J/kg of MUCAPE with Monday's system. Looks like there's a bit of capping though so that should be a negative factor when considering severe weather. Higher CAPE values to our South. Freezing levels are at around 700mb so I'd say we can scratch off hail as a threat.

 

EHI values look okay here but better in Kansas. Lapse rates are awful. Expect nothing less from March thunderstorms. Especially since we're stuck in a near-average temp pattern. Can't get much severe weather with average temps this time of year. March sucks. Too warm for good snow, too cold for real severe weather.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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After one of the wettest February’s in Grand Rapids history so far this March is in 3rd place for one of the driest March’s in Grand Rapids history.  February we had an official 4.93” of rain and snow and so far this March we are at only 0.51” The record driest March came in the very warm March of 1910 when only 0.5” fell. In 2nd place is 2001 when 0.54” fell there is a tie for 3rd place at 0.73” in 1911 and 1936. Then 0.74” in 1958 in 2013 0.94” fell and 0.96” fell in 1999. Every other March in recorded history at Grand Rapids recorded more than one inch of total precipitation.  We shall see how much falls in the next 10 days here to see where this March ends up. BTW if the trend continues there has not been a wet February to dry March in our past but there have been several dry March to wet Aprils in the past.

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00z GEFS and EPS are both beginning to dial in on the Polar Vortex exhibit of this year's LRC pattern to close out March and open April.  I originally thought there would be a warm up for Easter, or a day or two after the holiday, but that is not happening anymore and we will likely have to wait a bit longer for any sustained warming.  Blocking is really taking over the pattern and the only places that will see warming are in the W/SW as the ridge blossoms late month into early April.

 

As the amplified N.A. pattern takes shape, severe wx in the southern Plains/MW shall heat up...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

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It is rather surprising to see such powdery snowfall across the OV region this morning during the first full day of Spring.  Temps are in the upper 20's with snow falling rather heavily and some reports of 4-8" in places across IN are showing up. 

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It is rather surprising to see such powdery snowfall across the OV region this morning during the first full day of Spring.  Temps are in the upper 20's with snow falling rather heavily and some reports of 4-8" in places across IN are showing up. 

 

With the solar activity minimum forecasted for the next several cycles, we may just have to get used to this...sadly. I heard a news story yesterday and the reporter was speaking of a scientist's program that has 97% accuracy and it predicts that due to the 11 yr cycles in each hemi-sphere of the sun being on slightly different timing, the dual-cycles occasionally will be in phase to cancel out each other's effects. And that is what their program is seeing looking ahead from 2019 into the 2030's. The last time this phase-cancellation cycle occurred was during the Maunder Minimum. I may find this a good era during which to semi-retire down in the sunbelt, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The cold that was being predicted by a few of the longer range models to come after the 20th is thankfully wrong. Nothing but highs in the 50s and 60s this week in the forecast. :)  Also no real snow yet again this month despite the active pattern. We've had over 2" of rain though the past week.

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It is rather surprising to see such powdery snowfall across the OV region this morning during the first full day of Spring.  Temps are in the upper 20's with snow falling rather heavily and some reports of 4-8" in places across IN are showing up. 

There was a poster that pretty much summed this up the best: "Clipper ratios with March moisture". Expect the same with the weekend system.

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Fun facts with just 10 days to go in March the highest temperature here in Grand Rapids so far is just 56° and NO forecasted high of 60° or better. Well in the last 30 years the coldest high for any March in Grand Rapids is 56° and that has happened 3 times (in the last 30 years) in 2013, 2002 and 2001. In fact the only years that it has NOT reached the 60’s in March going back to 1958 that is 60 years (I am still looking) are  2013 56°. 2008 59°. 2008 59°. 2002 56°. 2001 56°. 1992 59°. 1984 54°. 1982°. 1975° 53. 1970 54°. 1965 43° (that was the snowiest March in Grand Rapids with 36”) and 1958 56° that is it in that 60 year time. Of course we still have time yet this year but it is not in the forecast.

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With the solar activity minimum forecasted for the next several cycles, we may just have to get used to this...sadly. I heard a news story yesterday and the reporter was speaking of a scientist's program that has 97% accuracy and it predicts that due to the 11 yr cycles in each hemi-sphere of the sun being on slightly different timing, the dual-cycles occasionally will be in phase to cancel out each other's effects. And that is what their program is seeing looking ahead from 2019 into the 2030's. The last time this phase-cancellation cycle occurred was during the Maunder Minimum. I may find this a good era during which to semi-retire down in the sunbelt, lol

Bingo!  This is more evidence that adds to the arsenal of information which is suggesting that the future will not be pretty IMO.  Furthermore, to add to what you mentioned above, I do honestly believe the next 2 winters will behave a lot like the late 70's from what I am seeing at this distance.  Before we get there, the Arctic is already cooling rapidly and setting the stage for another BN summer season.  JB has been posting about the dip in Arcitc temps and you can see it happening in the map below...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

 

 

 

Let's see how long it stays BN in the Arctic this season....CFSv2 saying it will be cool throughout the summer in the Arctic...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd3.gif

 

 

with rapid cooling late summer into Autumn...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd5.gif

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@ Jaster, during the Maunder Minimum, warm arctic = cold N.A.....can't wait to see more and more articles blaming global warming for cooling...notice how warm Alaska and south of Greenland were back then...

 

 

 

maunder_minimum_temperature.gif

 

 

http://wiki.iceagefarmer.com/images/b/b4/MAP_-_World_GCM_model_of_Maunder_Minum_Temperature_Change_%28NASA_GISS%2C_2001%29.png

 

 

 

Wait a sec, I've seen a map like that! Yup, today's 12z GEFS....is this a coincidence??? Drum roll please...nope!

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

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