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March 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Tony

Posted 25 February 2018 - 01:07 PM

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Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similaritues, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm.

#52
jaster220

Posted 26 February 2018 - 08:48 AM

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Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similarities, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm.

 

1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern? 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#53
Niko

Posted 27 February 2018 - 06:35 AM

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March looks like it will roar in like a lion in my area. After the gorgeous day yesterday, I am ready for Spring. Looks like Detroit Magnet might score another snowstorm Thursday evening. Still too early for exact details. As of now, couple of inches are being forecasted. :unsure:



#54
westMJim

Posted 27 February 2018 - 08:29 AM

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Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similaritues, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm.

Its already 55° here at my house with sunny skies sure looks like spring. BUT do not think that it still can not turn wintery yet. Here are some examples of big snow/ice storms after a mild period.  In March of 1970 The high reached 54° on March 21st but there was a big snowstorm on the 24/25th In March 1971 the temperature reached 64° on the 14th only to have a big snowstorm on the 18th In March 1973 the temperature shot up to 72° on the 14th but there was a big time snow storm on the 16/17th and in 1976 the temperature was 67 on February 27th and 53° on the 29th but the biggest ice storm in south Michigan hit on Mach 2/3rd


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#55
jaster220

Posted 27 February 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Its already 55° here at my house with sunny skies sure looks like spring. BUT do not think that it still can not turn wintery yet. Here are some examples of big snow/ice storms after a mild period.  In March of 1970 The high reached 54° on March 21st but there was a big snowstorm on the 24/25th In March 1971 the temperature reached 64° on the 14th only to have a big snowstorm on the 18th In March 1972 the temperature shot up to 72° on the 14th but there was a big time snow storm on the 16/17th and in 1976 the temperature was 67 on February 27th and 53° on the 29th but the biggest ice storm in south Michigan hit on March 2/3rd

 

Thx for backing up my earlier post WMJim! 

 

"1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern?"

 

EDIT- did you mean Mar 16/17 of '73 vs '72? You've often mentioned the 1973 storm as a top (3) in the Tri-Cities


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#56
Illinois_WX

Posted 27 February 2018 - 10:00 AM

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I like how all of us out here are on board with warmth. Winter really does suck unless it snows (atleast for me). Warm weather is amazing, and having severe weather compliment it makes it so much better than winter IMO. I hope we can keep it active around here. Maybe we should start a facebook page for severe weather for the forum, and we can do live videos of us chasing when storms are coming in our area or something. I think that'd be cool, but just an idea! I hate when I see a storm go through Chicago per se, and I see "Hazard... 80 mph and baseball sized hail" only to see pictures on a website later and no actual footage of the storm. I think severe weather can be just as amazing as snowstorms, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we can all be active on here when it comes time!  


  • Tom, gabel23, CentralNebWeather and 1 other like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#57
jaster220

Posted 27 February 2018 - 10:49 AM

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@ NebWX

 

Winterstorms/Snow pack/Historical stats etc are my gig..tend to go hermit from sites during the warm season til about mid-August when talk turns to the next cold season. I'll occasionally lurk if there's a major outbreak somewhere, or even make a rare post if the local action is hot-n-heavy. Otherwise, I like your plan for those where severe is more common. Quite uncommon lately around here (The Mitt). It's become SO quiet, I say it's the place where PDS Watches go to die  :rolleyes:


  • Illinois_WX and snowstorm83 like this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#58
westMJim

Posted 27 February 2018 - 10:51 AM

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Thx for backing up my earlier post WMJim! 

 

"1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern?"

 

EDIT- did you mean Mar 16/17 of '73 vs '72? You've often mentioned the 1973 storm as a top (3) in the Tri-Cities

Yes the correct year is 1973. Thanks for the noticing that. I changed the year on my original post 


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#59
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Not a lot to get excited for in the models.  Quiet week around here it looks like.



#60
jaster220

Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Not a lot to get excited for in the models.  Quiet week around here it looks like.

 

Funny- active there meant boring here, and now vice-versa in effect..and I see not too many of you western peeps are interested in chiming in with any tracking comments on our potential..and so it is for such a massive SF


  • Niko likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#61
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 02:59 PM

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Not a high below the mid 40’s, and some mid 60’s in the next 10 days forecast. When does the fork come out to end winter?

#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Not a high below the mid 40’s, and some mid 60’s in the next 10 days forecast. When does the fork come out to end winter?


Looks like the fork's here. Permanent pattern change looks to happen in mid March.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#63
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 03:32 PM

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Looks like the fork's here. Permanent pattern change looks to happen in mid March.


Looking at the latest GFS, you are correct. Bastardi has been pushing this epic March pattern. Just not seeing it around here, though normally he is talking about the east coast. Not saying it can’t happen, but the days are dwindling imo.

#64
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 February 2018 - 03:35 PM

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Looking at the latest GFS, you are correct. Bastardi has been pushing this epic March pattern. Just not seeing it around here, though normally he is talking about the east coast. Not saying it can’t happen, but the days are dwindling imo.

Bastardi is always pushing an "epic" pattern. I honestly don't know why he still carries any weight among people.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#65
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 05:20 PM

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Bastardi is always pushing an "epic" pattern. I honestly don't know why he still carries any weight among people.


I watch the free daily video as his weather analogs really interest me. However, What usually occurs is talk of the greatest storm or greatest pattern ever that ends with talk of east coast storms as my interest wanes.

#66
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2018 - 06:56 PM

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Went outside to put my truck in the garage, and the amount of snow geese flying overhead is impressive. Spring is closing in. Noticed them a few hours ago but seems louder now. My wife and kids also said the sky was amazing with the geese.
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#67
Niko

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:19 AM

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March looks like a chilly month shaping up w a few systems to watch. The good thing is that Spring is around the corner. :D



#68
Niko

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:35 AM

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Currently, skies are partly cloudy and temps are in the 30s. A tad breezy as well. Wcf @ 26F.



#69
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:27 AM

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12Z GFS brings a nice amount of precipitation across Nebraska, (rain and then a change to snow), on Monday with what looks like howling winds.  Could sure use some rain and wet snow here.



#70
jaster220

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

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March looks like a chilly month shaping up w a few systems to watch. The good thing is that Spring is around the corner. :D

 

Robins singing this morn at my office in St. Joe  :)


  • Hawkeye likes this

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#71
Tabitha

Posted 28 February 2018 - 11:01 AM

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Robins singing this morn at my office in St. Joe  :)

 

Fly, robin fly
Fly, robin fly
Fly, robin fly
Up, up to the sky

___Levay

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=dZ-QL75KGdk



#72
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:36 PM

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Rarely hear NWS Hastings start talking about storm potential like this. Something to watch in the coming days for sure. Hopefully a precipitation producer.

National Weather Service Hastings NE
310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...Suggest Everyone Pay Close Attention to the Weather Sun-Mon as a
Strong Springlike Storm System Could Bring a Variety of weather.

We have transitioned to a blocky pattern and that can result in
extreme wx. We are especially concerned about Sun-Mon as a potent
spring storm gets blocked just downstream.

Potentially Hazardous Weather:

- Tstms are in the fcst Sun afternoon/eve; isolated svr wind psbl
- Possibly a swath of heavy/wet accumulating snow
- High winds of 35-45 mph with gusts 55-65 mph Sun night into Mon

Aloft: A ridge will remain over the rgn Fri while a low mills
around over the Pac NW coast within the Wrn trof. The last 2
EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET runs fcst the base of the trof to cross the
Desert SW Sun while becoming negatively tilted. This will induce
cyclogenesis. The resultant upr low will become blocked downstream
but uncertainty remains as to where. The 00Z/12Z EC are further W
and closest to the CWA over IA/MN while the 06Z/12Z GFS are over
WI. Moderately amplified NW should develop behind this system Tue-
Wed.

Lee cyclogenesis will occur
on this front with a strengthening low heading into SD or IA Mon.
Confidence decreases significantly after Mon as this low will
occlude and become blocked.

Precip: Sun afternoon/eve we could see a squall line of low-top
tstms form and race across part of the CWA. Downward transfer of
low-lvl winds could result in near-svr wind gusts. Instability
will probably be too low for anything more than 1/2" hail.

Snow: There is potential for a swath of heavy/wet accumulating
commahead snow Sun night as the temp profile collapses below frzg
in CAA. Uncertainty is high as the timing of changeover from R to
S will may a role as will the track of the low and the stage of
its maturity. Does the blossoming commahead form overhead or
further N over the Sandhills?

Winds: Potent lows that occlude and stall similar to what is
being depicted Mon usually produce the highest winds we see around
here. The GFS has 850 mb winds of 55-60 kt at 12Z/Mon diminishing
to 50-55 kt by 18Z. The EC has 45-50 kt 12Z-18Z increasing to
50-60 kt by 00Z. These winds will be occurring in CAA and the
associated steep lapse rates and deeper mixing is sure to mix this
down. We need to see if models cont their potency with these wind
speeds.
  • gabel23 and jaster220 like this

#73
Niko

Posted 28 February 2018 - 04:07 PM

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Beautiful, calm evening outside w temps in the 50s. Clouds already are increasing.



#74
Niko

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:37 PM

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Currently cloudy and temps are already in the mid 30s (34F) to be exact. My air temperature is dropping rapidly.



#75
gabel23

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:06 PM

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Rarely hear NWS Hastings start talking about storm potential like this. Something to watch in the coming days for sure. Hopefully a precipitation producer.

National Weather Service Hastings NE
310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...Suggest Everyone Pay Close Attention to the Weather Sun-Mon as a
Strong Springlike Storm System Could Bring a Variety of weather.

We have transitioned to a blocky pattern and that can result in
extreme wx. We are especially concerned about Sun-Mon as a potent
spring storm gets blocked just downstream.

Potentially Hazardous Weather:

- Tstms are in the fcst Sun afternoon/eve; isolated svr wind psbl
- Possibly a swath of heavy/wet accumulating snow
- High winds of 35-45 mph with gusts 55-65 mph Sun night into Mon

Aloft: A ridge will remain over the rgn Fri while a low mills
around over the Pac NW coast within the Wrn trof. The last 2
EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET runs fcst the base of the trof to cross the
Desert SW Sun while becoming negatively tilted. This will induce
cyclogenesis. The resultant upr low will become blocked downstream
but uncertainty remains as to where. The 00Z/12Z EC are further W
and closest to the CWA over IA/MN while the 06Z/12Z GFS are over
WI. Moderately amplified NW should develop behind this system Tue-
Wed.

Lee cyclogenesis will occur
on this front with a strengthening low heading into SD or IA Mon.
Confidence decreases significantly after Mon as this low will
occlude and become blocked.

Precip: Sun afternoon/eve we could see a squall line of low-top
tstms form and race across part of the CWA. Downward transfer of
low-lvl winds could result in near-svr wind gusts. Instability
will probably be too low for anything more than 1/2" hail.

Snow: There is potential for a swath of heavy/wet accumulating
commahead snow Sun night as the temp profile collapses below frzg
in CAA. Uncertainty is high as the timing of changeover from R to
S will may a role as will the track of the low and the stage of
its maturity. Does the blossoming commahead form overhead or
further N over the Sandhills?

Winds: Potent lows that occlude and stall similar to what is
being depicted Mon usually produce the highest winds we see around
here. The GFS has 850 mb winds of 55-60 kt at 12Z/Mon diminishing
to 50-55 kt by 18Z. The EC has 45-50 kt 12Z-18Z increasing to
50-60 kt by 00Z. These winds will be occurring in CAA and the
associated steep lapse rates and deeper mixing is sure to mix this
down. We need to see if models cont their potency with these wind
speeds. 

That's an impressive disco; maybe the beginnings of the volatile March I mentioned might happen!! I love this time of the year; really puts things into perspective how mother nature does what she wants to do! 



#76
gabel23

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:08 PM

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:lol:  on this prediction for my area sunday night! 

 

Sunday Night
Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely between 3am and 4am, then snow likely after 4am. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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#77
Niko

Posted 01 March 2018 - 05:30 AM

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Currently cloudy and a cold wind w a temp @ 33F. No rainfall. Just dry out there.



#78
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 05:47 AM

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Welcome to met Spring!  Who would love to be in Tahoe right about now??  Ummm, ya...I'd teleport there in a heart beat:

 

 

 

Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
414 AM PST Thu Mar 1 2018

CAZ072-NVZ002-020000-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180303T1800Z/
/O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.180301T1600Z-180302T1200Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
414 AM PST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring with periods of blizzard conditions
expected. Strong winds and heavy snowfall rates will cause
whiteout conditions with blowing snow. Total snow accumulations
of 2 to 5 feet in the Sierra above 7000 feet, with 1 to 3 feet
of snow below 7000 feet, including the Lake Tahoe basin.

 

These places need the snow and it looks like nature is going to pound this region throughout the month of March which will help boost snow totals closer to normal.  Spring skiing is going to be quite nice this year out west.


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#79
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Welcome to met Spring!  Who would love to be in Tahoe right about now??  Ummm, ya...I'd teleport there in a heart beat:

 

 

These places need the snow and it looks like nature is going to pound this region throughout the month of March which will help boost snow totals closer to normal.  Spring skiing is going to be quite nice this year out west.

 

I spent a week in Stateline, NV a few years back...I remember it was where the 4 High - Rise Hotels were...one was a Harvey's...another a Harrah's...and the other two names elude me.  It was in the summer; however.

 

*Oh yes; the third one was "Caesar's Tahoe".



#80
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:48 AM

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I spent a week in Stateline, NV a few years back...I remember it was where the 4 High - Rise Hotels were...one was a Harvey's...another a Harrah's...and the other two names elude me.  It was in the summer; however.

 

*Oh yes; the third one was "Caesar's Tahoe".

Back in the late 90's (might have been '96 or '97), I went on a ski trip out to Lake Tahoe during my high school winter break.  I can vividly remember the beauty of the landscape, while at the top of the mountain, it is something I will never forget.  The water is crystal clear in the lake, which was carved out by an ancient glacier.  I would love to go back there again sometime but before that happens, Aspen is on my list.


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#81
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:05 AM

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WHOAAA. GFS I see you. Showing some intense wraparound snow on Monday, possibly thundersnow for NEB. I'll take it!


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#82
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:05 AM

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The second, in a series of storms, to effect our sub forum is poised to develop across the Upper MW/Plains states late this weekend into early next week.  With all the blocking around, this should be even slower than our current system effecting the eastern part of the sub.  This system is rather interesting as it will bowl across the MW region with snow and rain/snow mix.  I'll prob start a thread for this system later tonight.



#83
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:11 AM

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You think the GFS was under playing the blocking????


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#84
gimmesnow

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:24 AM

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Is there any hope for a bout of sub 20 degree lows in the next week?



#85
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Whipped up a storm thread for the next large scale system late weekend into early next week...

 

http://theweatherfor...h-bowling-ball/



#86
Niko

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Any more snow past mid March will not be wanted by me. Spring is on my list thereafter. :D 



#87
Snowlover76

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Spring please

#88
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:43 AM

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Spring please

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=8mz5Rtx-Eu0



#89
Hawkeye

Posted 01 March 2018 - 03:13 PM

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We were missed by the storm, but in return we got another decent day... plenty of sun and 49 degrees.  The next few days look at least as good.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#90
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 03:18 PM

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12z CFS with a huge South Dakota blizzard at Hour 744...which I guess translates to Day 31.

 

Probably should file this under April discussions...


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#91
Tom

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:43 AM

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The 3rd, in a series of storms, which was called for by the 10th/11th of this month, is beginning to show up in the longer range.  Back-to-back Blizzards possible???  Wild March pattern.


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#92
Tom

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:48 AM

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Boy, does that storm on the 12z GFS really look like a beauty during the 10th-12th period which fits the LRC pattern to a "T" and was an October Bomb in the GL's in cycle #1, Blizzard in cycle # 2, Blizzard in Cycle # 3...what will cycle #4 deliver...????


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#93
NEJeremy

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:45 AM

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I can't wait to see how yet another epic pattern on the models will give Omaha/Lincoln another 1-2" snowfall! That's all the previous amazing patterns have delivered this winter, so I'm sticking with the consistency. I'm hoping for March severe weather vs any cold/snowy pattern at this point.



#94
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:00 AM

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I can't wait to see how yet another epic pattern on the models will give Omaha/Lincoln another 1-2" snowfall! That's all the previous amazing patterns have delivered this winter, so I'm sticking with the consistency. I'm hoping for March severe weather vs any cold/snowy pattern at this point.

 

Lincoln and Omaha are overdue for a big snowstorm.  Kansas is also overdue.

 

The Law of Averages is Very Important and cannot be overlooked.

 

The Weather Has a Memory.


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#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:41 PM

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Seeing as our appreciable snow season is basically over and we have our first marginal risk of the season for Sunday, I went ahead and updated my signature to severe weather mode! Now let's get this show on the road. Where's April?


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#96
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 04:24 AM

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#MarchMadness...the Nor'Easter was an impressive storm...near Cat 2 wind gusts and nearing 40" of snow...

 

DXV3zZPVoAAxQ66.jpg


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#97
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:50 AM

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The "Beast From the East" has made it's mark in Poland:

 

http://www.krakowpos...land-beast-east


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#98
Niko

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:15 AM

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Sunny and cold out there w a nice snowcover around. Temps are holding in the low 30s. Expected high today in the upper 30s.



#99
westMJim

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:16 AM

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This from Bill Steffen’s weather blog on WOOD TV 8 here is Grand Rapids, MI. It  shows the current ice on the great Lakes along with other useful weather information

 

 http://woodtv.com/bl...igan-picture-2/



#100
Niko

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:21 AM

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Looks like SEMI is not done w snow just yet as more snow is in the forecast next week........

 

NOAA:

 

Models have been very consistent in showing
well defined low level cold air advection occurring as warm
advection/midlevel theta e ridge lifts into the state. At this time,
it appears that a widespread blanket of light snow will be likely
Monday night.
Confidence in the forecast quickly unravels with
respect to the likelihood of precipitation for the middle of the
week.

 

It also remains quite cold next week w highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.