Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Pretty good consistency on gfs ensembles https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018022412&fh=132 .75-1 QPF 4-5 days out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 I fired up a thread for the next large scale storm mid/late next week... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1752-feb-28th-march-2nd-storm-system/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 March 5th looks like a pattern change, no? I see a band of snow coming out of the NW, instead of this crap from the SW we've been getting. Looking at GFS we are looking good that time. I have just been hoping for the rain to stay away, and for some good sub-20 lows so they can blow some snow. But it actually looks like we might be getting more than that. I'm not going to complain, but this new "February thaw" pattern we get into, when we get warmth and a big rain on President's Day, is total garbage. I hope it goes away next year, I spend the last 3 weeks of snowboarding feeling like it's all going to end that week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 March 5th looks like a pattern change, no? I see a band of snow coming out of the NW, instead of this crap from the SW we've been getting. Looking at GFS we are looking good that time. I have just been hoping for the rain to stay away, and for some good sub-20 lows so they can blow some snow. But it actually looks like we might be getting more than that. I'm not going to complain, but this new "February thaw" pattern we get into, when we get warmth and a big rain on President's Day, is total garbage. I hope it goes away next year, I spend the last 3 weeks of snowboarding feeling like it's all going to end that week.Man, I hear you! I'm a cross-country skier but it's the same issues. However, I doubt that they will fire up the snow guns again out at Lapham Peak on the man-made snow loops for cross country skiing. They were trashed after this week's rains. I'm hoping for a good snow storm or two in early March and some unseasonably cold temps to hold the snow for at least a week. I want to get out on the trails here in SE WI one last time! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Lapham has snow machines? Huh did not know that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Man, I hear you! I'm a cross-country skier but it's the same issues. However, I doubt that they will fire up the snow guns again out at Lapham Peak on the man-made snow loops for cross country skiing. They were trashed after this week's rains. I'm hoping for a good snow storm or two in early March and some unseasonably cold temps to hold the snow for at least a week. I want to get out on the trails here in SE WI one last time! I don't know how that situation is. I know ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, all the SE Wisconsin ski resorts have been in a massive race to blow snow the earliest and end the latest. My home hill is Alpine Valley, years ago, they would never blow snow after President's Day. I was talking with some friends who work there Friday, they are waiting to blow snow first chance they can get, and they are pretty dead set on trying to make a St Patrick's Day season end. Keep your eyes open, things have changed in the last few years, snow making has gotten a lot more aggressive and times when no one would blow snow 5 years ago, now everyone blows snow. Not sure how it will work for cross country, but SE Wisconsin resorts have been in power blow mode for a few years, it's been awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 I don't know how that situation is. I know ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, all the SE Wisconsin ski resorts have been in a massive race to blow snow the earliest and end the latest. My home hill is Alpine Valley, years ago, they would never blow snow after President's Day. I was talking with some friends who work there Friday, they are waiting to blow snow first chance they can get, and they are pretty dead set on trying to make a St Patrick's Day season end. Keep your eyes open, things have changed in the last few years, snow making has gotten a lot more aggressive and times when no one would blow snow 5 years ago, now everyone blows snow. Not sure how it will work for cross country, but SE Wisconsin resorts have been in power blow mode for a few years, it's been awesome.Things are quite different at Lapham Peak. It is a state park and the snow making effort there is funded entirely by donations. Also,a lot of the snow making, and even some of the grooming, is actually done by volunteers. So asking those volunteers to haul out the snow guns one last time so late in the season may be asking too much. However, there may be a financial incentive to do so. Every time I've gone skiing there this season the parking lot has been nearly full. Lapham has to be the largest revenue generating park for the state of WI during the winter months. But I'm hoping Mother Nature will turn her snow guns on one last time so I'm not just limited to a 2.1k snow-making loop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Things are quite different at Lapham Peak. It is a state park and the snow making effort there is funded entirely by donations. Also,a lot of the snow making, and even some of the grooming, is actually done by volunteers. So asking those volunteers to haul out the snow guns one last time so late in the season may be asking too much. However, there may be a financial incentive to do so. Every time I've gone skiing there this season the parking lot has been nearly full. Lapham has to be the largest revenue generating park for the state of WI during the winter months. But I'm hoping Mother Nature will turn her snow guns on one last time so I'm not just limited to a 2.1k snow-making loop. They definitely won't blow then. Blowing snow is super expensive. It costs around $10,000 a night to run all 150 snow guns at AV. Luckily, latest Euro has some good news for us, hopefully things continue this way. Personally, I can't believe there's a remote chance of snowmobiling a little more. This last week has really sucked the winter out of me, but it's not over yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Those of you looking for snow in WI, today's 12z EPS just got a lot snowier over the next 10 days compared to previous runs and that also includes IA/N IL/N IN/MI posters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 A week of 40s and 50s coming up here. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the switch to spring around these parts. March definitely not coming in like a lion, but that fits with the rest of this lame winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similaritues, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2018 Report Share Posted February 26, 2018 Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similarities, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm. 1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 March looks like it will roar in like a lion in my area. After the gorgeous day yesterday, I am ready for Spring. Looks like Detroit Magnet might score another snowstorm Thursday evening. Still too early for exact details. As of now, couple of inches are being forecasted. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Our biggest snowstorm in Chicago in 1967 came after we had a 70 degree day. Storm came from the SW and dumped heavy rain followed by 24+ hours of heavy snow. I know that it was January and all but im going to look more into that system to see what similaritues, if any, it may have to this upcoming storm.Its already 55° here at my house with sunny skies sure looks like spring. BUT do not think that it still can not turn wintery yet. Here are some examples of big snow/ice storms after a mild period. In March of 1970 The high reached 54° on March 21st but there was a big snowstorm on the 24/25th In March 1971 the temperature reached 64° on the 14th only to have a big snowstorm on the 18th In March 1973 the temperature shot up to 72° on the 14th but there was a big time snow storm on the 16/17th and in 1976 the temperature was 67 on February 27th and 53° on the 29th but the biggest ice storm in south Michigan hit on Mach 2/3rd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Its already 55° here at my house with sunny skies sure looks like spring. BUT do not think that it still can not turn wintery yet. Here are some examples of big snow/ice storms after a mild period. In March of 1970 The high reached 54° on March 21st but there was a big snowstorm on the 24/25th In March 1971 the temperature reached 64° on the 14th only to have a big snowstorm on the 18th In March 1972 the temperature shot up to 72° on the 14th but there was a big time snow storm on the 16/17th and in 1976 the temperature was 67 on February 27th and 53° on the 29th but the biggest ice storm in south Michigan hit on March 2/3rd Thx for backing up my earlier post WMJim! "1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern?" EDIT- did you mean Mar 16/17 of '73 vs '72? You've often mentioned the 1973 storm as a top (3) in the Tri-Cities Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 I like how all of us out here are on board with warmth. Winter really does suck unless it snows (atleast for me). Warm weather is amazing, and having severe weather compliment it makes it so much better than winter IMO. I hope we can keep it active around here. Maybe we should start a facebook page for severe weather for the forum, and we can do live videos of us chasing when storms are coming in our area or something. I think that'd be cool, but just an idea! I hate when I see a storm go through Chicago per se, and I see "Hazard... 80 mph and baseball sized hail" only to see pictures on a website later and no actual footage of the storm. I think severe weather can be just as amazing as snowstorms, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we can all be active on here when it comes time! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 @ NebWX Winterstorms/Snow pack/Historical stats etc are my gig..tend to go hermit from sites during the warm season til about mid-August when talk turns to the next cold season. I'll occasionally lurk if there's a major outbreak somewhere, or even make a rare post if the local action is hot-n-heavy. Otherwise, I like your plan for those where severe is more common. Quite uncommon lately around here (The Mitt). It's become SO quiet, I say it's the place where PDS Watches go to die 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Thx for backing up my earlier post WMJim! "1960's to 1980's was an era when HP's dropped into the ideal position for storms approaching from the SW to get a nice cold feed. That's a large part of what made that the "Golden Era" of winter storms around the S GL's region. Not sure when or even if we'll ever find ourselves back in that pattern?" EDIT- did you mean Mar 16/17 of '73 vs '72? You've often mentioned the 1973 storm as a top (3) in the Tri-CitiesYes the correct year is 1973. Thanks for the noticing that. I changed the year on my original post 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not a lot to get excited for in the models. Quiet week around here it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not a lot to get excited for in the models. Quiet week around here it looks like. Funny- active there meant boring here, and now vice-versa in effect..and I see not too many of you western peeps are interested in chiming in with any tracking comments on our potential..and so it is for such a massive SF 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not a high below the mid 40’s, and some mid 60’s in the next 10 days forecast. When does the fork come out to end winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not a high below the mid 40’s, and some mid 60’s in the next 10 days forecast. When does the fork come out to end winter?Looks like the fork's here. Permanent pattern change looks to happen in mid March. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looks like the fork's here. Permanent pattern change looks to happen in mid March.Looking at the latest GFS, you are correct. Bastardi has been pushing this epic March pattern. Just not seeing it around here, though normally he is talking about the east coast. Not saying it can’t happen, but the days are dwindling imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Looking at the latest GFS, you are correct. Bastardi has been pushing this epic March pattern. Just not seeing it around here, though normally he is talking about the east coast. Not saying it can’t happen, but the days are dwindling imo.Bastardi is always pushing an "epic" pattern. I honestly don't know why he still carries any weight among people. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Bastardi is always pushing an "epic" pattern. I honestly don't know why he still carries any weight among people.I watch the free daily video as his weather analogs really interest me. However, What usually occurs is talk of the greatest storm or greatest pattern ever that ends with talk of east coast storms as my interest wanes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Went outside to put my truck in the garage, and the amount of snow geese flying overhead is impressive. Spring is closing in. Noticed them a few hours ago but seems louder now. My wife and kids also said the sky was amazing with the geese. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 March looks like a chilly month shaping up w a few systems to watch. The good thing is that Spring is around the corner. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Currently, skies are partly cloudy and temps are in the 30s. A tad breezy as well. Wcf @ 26F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 12Z GFS brings a nice amount of precipitation across Nebraska, (rain and then a change to snow), on Monday with what looks like howling winds. Could sure use some rain and wet snow here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 March looks like a chilly month shaping up w a few systems to watch. The good thing is that Spring is around the corner. Robins singing this morn at my office in St. Joe 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Robins singing this morn at my office in St. Joe Fly, robin flyFly, robin flyFly, robin flyUp, up to the sky___Levay https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ-QL75KGdk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Rarely hear NWS Hastings start talking about storm potential like this. Something to watch in the coming days for sure. Hopefully a precipitation producer. National Weather Service Hastings NE310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 ...Suggest Everyone Pay Close Attention to the Weather Sun-Mon as aStrong Springlike Storm System Could Bring a Variety of weather. We have transitioned to a blocky pattern and that can result inextreme wx. We are especially concerned about Sun-Mon as a potentspring storm gets blocked just downstream. Potentially Hazardous Weather: - Tstms are in the fcst Sun afternoon/eve; isolated svr wind psbl- Possibly a swath of heavy/wet accumulating snow- High winds of 35-45 mph with gusts 55-65 mph Sun night into Mon Aloft: A ridge will remain over the rgn Fri while a low millsaround over the Pac NW coast within the Wrn trof. The last 2EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET runs fcst the base of the trof to cross theDesert SW Sun while becoming negatively tilted. This will inducecyclogenesis. The resultant upr low will become blocked downstreambut uncertainty remains as to where. The 00Z/12Z EC are further Wand closest to the CWA over IA/MN while the 06Z/12Z GFS are overWI. Moderately amplified NW should develop behind this system Tue-Wed. Lee cyclogenesis will occuron this front with a strengthening low heading into SD or IA Mon.Confidence decreases significantly after Mon as this low willocclude and become blocked. Precip: Sun afternoon/eve we could see a squall line of low-toptstms form and race across part of the CWA. Downward transfer oflow-lvl winds could result in near-svr wind gusts. Instabilitywill probably be too low for anything more than 1/2" hail. Snow: There is potential for a swath of heavy/wet accumulatingcommahead snow Sun night as the temp profile collapses below frzgin CAA. Uncertainty is high as the timing of changeover from R toS will may a role as will the track of the low and the stage ofits maturity. Does the blossoming commahead form overhead orfurther N over the Sandhills? Winds: Potent lows that occlude and stall similar to what isbeing depicted Mon usually produce the highest winds we see aroundhere. The GFS has 850 mb winds of 55-60 kt at 12Z/Mon diminishingto 50-55 kt by 18Z. The EC has 45-50 kt 12Z-18Z increasing to50-60 kt by 00Z. These winds will be occurring in CAA and theassociated steep lapse rates and deeper mixing is sure to mix thisdown. We need to see if models cont their potency with these windspeeds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Beautiful, calm evening outside w temps in the 50s. Clouds already are increasing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Currently cloudy and temps are already in the mid 30s (34F) to be exact. My air temperature is dropping rapidly. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Rarely hear NWS Hastings start talking about storm potential like this. Something to watch in the coming days for sure. Hopefully a precipitation producer. National Weather Service Hastings NE310 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 ...Suggest Everyone Pay Close Attention to the Weather Sun-Mon as aStrong Springlike Storm System Could Bring a Variety of weather. We have transitioned to a blocky pattern and that can result inextreme wx. We are especially concerned about Sun-Mon as a potentspring storm gets blocked just downstream. Potentially Hazardous Weather: - Tstms are in the fcst Sun afternoon/eve; isolated svr wind psbl- Possibly a swath of heavy/wet accumulating snow- High winds of 35-45 mph with gusts 55-65 mph Sun night into Mon Aloft: A ridge will remain over the rgn Fri while a low millsaround over the Pac NW coast within the Wrn trof. The last 2EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET runs fcst the base of the trof to cross theDesert SW Sun while becoming negatively tilted. This will inducecyclogenesis. The resultant upr low will become blocked downstreambut uncertainty remains as to where. The 00Z/12Z EC are further Wand closest to the CWA over IA/MN while the 06Z/12Z GFS are overWI. Moderately amplified NW should develop behind this system Tue-Wed. Lee cyclogenesis will occuron this front with a strengthening low heading into SD or IA Mon.Confidence decreases significantly after Mon as this low willocclude and become blocked. Precip: Sun afternoon/eve we could see a squall line of low-toptstms form and race across part of the CWA. Downward transfer oflow-lvl winds could result in near-svr wind gusts. Instabilitywill probably be too low for anything more than 1/2" hail. Snow: There is potential for a swath of heavy/wet accumulatingcommahead snow Sun night as the temp profile collapses below frzgin CAA. Uncertainty is high as the timing of changeover from R toS will may a role as will the track of the low and the stage ofits maturity. Does the blossoming commahead form overhead orfurther N over the Sandhills? Winds: Potent lows that occlude and stall similar to what isbeing depicted Mon usually produce the highest winds we see aroundhere. The GFS has 850 mb winds of 55-60 kt at 12Z/Mon diminishingto 50-55 kt by 18Z. The EC has 45-50 kt 12Z-18Z increasing to50-60 kt by 00Z. These winds will be occurring in CAA and theassociated steep lapse rates and deeper mixing is sure to mix thisdown. We need to see if models cont their potency with these windspeeds. That's an impressive disco; maybe the beginnings of the volatile March I mentioned might happen!! I love this time of the year; really puts things into perspective how mother nature does what she wants to do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 on this prediction for my area sunday night! Sunday NightRain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely between 3am and 4am, then snow likely after 4am. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Currently cloudy and a cold wind w a temp @ 33F. No rainfall. Just dry out there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Welcome to met Spring! Who would love to be in Tahoe right about now?? Ummm, ya...I'd teleport there in a heart beat: Blizzard WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Reno NV414 AM PST Thu Mar 1 2018CAZ072-NVZ002-020000-/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180303T1800Z//O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.180301T1600Z-180302T1200Z/Greater Lake Tahoe Area-Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,and Incline Village414 AM PST Thu Mar 1 2018...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PSTSATURDAY......BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO4 AM PST FRIDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring with periods of blizzard conditionsexpected. Strong winds and heavy snowfall rates will causewhiteout conditions with blowing snow. Total snow accumulationsof 2 to 5 feet in the Sierra above 7000 feet, with 1 to 3 feetof snow below 7000 feet, including the Lake Tahoe basin. These places need the snow and it looks like nature is going to pound this region throughout the month of March which will help boost snow totals closer to normal. Spring skiing is going to be quite nice this year out west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted March 1, 2018 Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 Welcome to met Spring! Who would love to be in Tahoe right about now?? Ummm, ya...I'd teleport there in a heart beat: These places need the snow and it looks like nature is going to pound this region throughout the month of March which will help boost snow totals closer to normal. Spring skiing is going to be quite nice this year out west. I spent a week in Stateline, NV a few years back...I remember it was where the 4 High - Rise Hotels were...one was a Harvey's...another a Harrah's...and the other two names elude me. It was in the summer; however. *Oh yes; the third one was "Caesar's Tahoe". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2018 I spent a week in Stateline, NV a few years back...I remember it was where the 4 High - Rise Hotels were...one was a Harvey's...another a Harrah's...and the other two names elude me. It was in the summer; however. *Oh yes; the third one was "Caesar's Tahoe".Back in the late 90's (might have been '96 or '97), I went on a ski trip out to Lake Tahoe during my high school winter break. I can vividly remember the beauty of the landscape, while at the top of the mountain, it is something I will never forget. The water is crystal clear in the lake, which was carved out by an ancient glacier. I would love to go back there again sometime but before that happens, Aspen is on my list. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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