March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

WHOAAA. GFS I see you. Showing some intense wraparound snow on Monday, possibly thundersnow for NEB. I'll take it!

[Tom]

The second, in a series of storms, to effect our sub forum is poised to develop across the Upper MW/Plains states late this weekend into early next week.  With all the blocking around, this should be even slower than our current system effecting the eastern part of the sub.  This system is rather interesting as it will bowl across the MW region with snow and rain/snow mix.  I'll prob start a thread for this system later tonight.

[Tom]

You think the GFS was under playing the blocking????

[gimmesnow]

Is there any hope for a bout of sub 20 degree lows in the next week?

[Tom]

Whipped up a storm thread for the next large scale system late weekend into early next week...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1757-march-3th-7th-bowling-ball/

[Niko]

Any more snow past mid March will not be wanted by me. Spring is on my list thereafter.  

[Snowlover76]

Spring please

[Tabitha]

Spring please

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mz5Rtx-Eu0

[Hawkeye]

We were missed by the storm, but in return we got another decent day... plenty of sun and 49 degrees.  The next few days look at least as good.

[Tabitha]

12z CFS with a huge South Dakota blizzard at Hour 744...which I guess translates to Day 31.

 

Probably should file this under April discussions...

[Tom]

The 3rd, in a series of storms, which was called for by the 10th/11th of this month, is beginning to show up in the longer range.  Back-to-back Blizzards possible???  Wild March pattern.

[Tom]

Boy, does that storm on the 12z GFS really look like a beauty during the 10th-12th period which fits the LRC pattern to a "T" and was an October Bomb in the GL's in cycle #1, Blizzard in cycle # 2, Blizzard in Cycle # 3...what will cycle #4 deliver...????

[NEJeremy]

I can't wait to see how yet another epic pattern on the models will give Omaha/Lincoln another 1-2" snowfall! That's all the previous amazing patterns have delivered this winter, so I'm sticking with the consistency. I'm hoping for March severe weather vs any cold/snowy pattern at this point.

[Tabitha]

I can't wait to see how yet another epic pattern on the models will give Omaha/Lincoln another 1-2" snowfall! That's all the previous amazing patterns have delivered this winter, so I'm sticking with the consistency. I'm hoping for March severe weather vs any cold/snowy pattern at this point.

 

Lincoln and Omaha are overdue for a big snowstorm.  Kansas is also overdue.

 

The Law of Averages is Very Important and cannot be overlooked.

 

The Weather Has a Memory.

[Minny_Weather]

Seeing as our appreciable snow season is basically over and we have our first marginal risk of the season for Sunday, I went ahead and updated my signature to severe weather mode! Now let's get this show on the road. Where's April?

[Tom]

#MarchMadness...the Nor'Easter was an impressive storm...near Cat 2 wind gusts and nearing 40" of snow...

 

[Tom]

The "Beast From the East" has made it's mark in Poland:

 

http://www.krakowpost.com/18760/2018/02/cold-weather-hypothermia-death-poland-beast-east

[Niko]

Sunny and cold out there w a nice snowcover around. Temps are holding in the low 30s. Expected high today in the upper 30s.

[westMJim]

This from Bill Steffen’s weather blog on WOOD TV 8 here is Grand Rapids, MI. It  shows the current ice on the great Lakes along with other useful weather information

 

 http://woodtv.com/blog/2018/03/03/modis-lake-michigan-picture-2/

[Niko]

Looks like SEMI is not done w snow just yet as more snow is in the forecast next week........

 

NOAA:

 

Models have been very consistent in showing
well defined low level cold air advection occurring as warm
advection/midlevel theta e ridge lifts into the state. At this time,
it appears that a widespread blanket of light snow will be likely
Monday night. Confidence in the forecast quickly unravels with
respect to the likelihood of precipitation for the middle of the
week.

 

It also remains quite cold next week w highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

[Niko]

Here are the totals from Thursday snowstorm in SEMI.......

 

Detroit came near a half a foot ( 5.0"). My area was at 5.7".  It was a nice snowstorm.

 

I believe Snowfall tally so far this Winter in Detroit is roughly at 58". Impressive indeed. More snow next week.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201803021501-KDTX-NOUS43-PNSDTX

[Hawkeye]

Last night's euro was the coldest run, yet, for the week following the Monday system.  As much as I want to see warmth and thunderstorms, significant stretches of chilly weather are something we have to put up with in March.  The ensembles bring us back to 50 by mid month.

[Hawkeye]

Remember the first wave of the big multi-wave snow back on February 8th?  It had a razor-sharp southern edge here in Iowa.  The big snow bullseye was the Fort Dodge area, which received 11 inches.  The rest of the snow pack from that period is long gone, but that one spot is still there.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro driving the next monster trough right into the SW/4 corners region Day 7-8 and fits the pattern like a "glove"...let's watch the models handle this energy as I've had this period circled on my calendar.

 

 

 

[Money]

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/970018136534802433

[Hawkeye]

[Minny_Weather]

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_204.png

If anything even close to that comes true I'll dance naked in Joe Bastardi's front yard.

[Tom]

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_204.png

Busy week of tracking strong winter storms and not the severe wx some people on here want and hope.  I really doubt we get any severe wx until prob late March and that will likely still be in the southern Plains. 

[snowstorm83]

5% RH in Goodland, Kansas. Yikes.

[Tom]

5% RH in Goodland, Kansas. Yikes.

I wonder where the Heat dome will be building early on this year...

[Minny_Weather]

5% RH in Goodland, Kansas. Yikes.

Nice wind gusts there too...

[Hawkeye]

Storm is a bit farther south this run.

 

[Tom]

Looking for warmth???  Its coming, but not just yet...hang on till around the Spring Solstice period are maybe a few days before...JMA weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies agree...

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

[westMJim]

Meteorological Winter wrap at Grand Rapids, MI.  the average temperature for December, January and February was 26.4 degrees. The warmest temperature in G.R. was 63 on Feb. 20 and the coldest was -12 on Dec. 27.   We had 9 days when the temp. got to zero or colder and 46 days when the high temp. failed to get above 32°.  Grand Rapids had 9.01″ of precipitation and that was 2.63″ above average.  The most rain in one day was 2.53″ on Feb. 20.  We had 52 days with measurable precipitation.  Grand Rapids recorded 66.2″ of snow and for that 3-month period.   The most snow on the ground in G.R. was 10″ on Dec. 16, Feb. 11 and Feb. 12.  Grand Rapids recorded 29% of possible sunshine and there were 3 days with a thunderstorm.   The average wind speed was 10.4 mph and the peak wind gust was 56 mph during the early morning of Sun. Feb. 25th.  All in all meteorological winter 2017/18 was a typical winter here in Grand Rapids. The biggest event was the flooding in late February that was more like one would expect in March or April.

[Niko]

Sunny n cold w a nice snowcover around w temps in the 30s. More snow for next week. Ugh! I am looking forward to severe weather.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z Euro crapped out our potential big weekend system, instead bringing all the energy together for yet another big nor'easter.

[GDR]

Why do you want a big system now??

[Minny_Weather]

Why do you want a big system now??

Cuz we're not all like you.

[CentralNebWeather]

75 degrees, humidity 15%, south winds gusting over 30 mph and in a high wind warning for Monday with winds potentially 60 mph. Precipitation chance 0%. Yippee.

[Niko]

Big Nor'Easter again for the EC. This time it will be a colder storm, which means, that the coast might be in for a lot of snow and wind.