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Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

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#1
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:43 AM

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As we get ready to close out what has been an extraordinary month of weather, March will open up like a Lion across the central CONUS.  I can tell you, that I'm absolutely amazed at the countless examples of how the LRC has been a great long range forecasting tool this season.  The next large system that will likely effect the MW/GL's region is directly related to the Oct 9th-11th system that tracked just south of Denver, into the TX Panhandle, E OK, W AR, STL, Kankakee, IL and thru N/C IN, all awhile, a blocking Banana HP sitting to the north.  Now, look at today's 12z GEFS run and draw your own conclusions.   Pretty amazing, right???  

 

If you do the math, this storm system is roughly 142 days from the Oct 9th-11th storm and using a 47 day cycle it matches up perfectly into the beginning of LRC cycle #4.  Let's discuss....



#2
LNK_Weather

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:46 AM

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This would be the perfect storm track for us if it were January.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#3
NEJeremy

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:00 AM

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This would be the perfect storm track for us if it were January.

meh we were pretty warm this time last month anyway too. the last 2 weeks of January we were above freezing everyday except for 2 days.



#4
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:17 AM

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That would be an ideal track for mby

#5
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:27 AM

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12z Euro with a very strong system...mid 980's...



#6
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:30 AM

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http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=conus&dpdt=

986 at 120

#7
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:30 AM

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Holy crap...what a run on the Euro...down to 980mb just south of Chicago...and guess what???  It tracks right thru Kankakee, IL into N/C IN...unbelievable

 

 

Snow maps coming...crush job on DSM and C & N IA into S MN...wow



#8
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:31 AM

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12z Euro...eye candy...


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#9
Hawkeye

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:33 AM

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12z Euro with a very strong system...mid 980's...

 

Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa.  There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png   260.84KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#10
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Wind gusts are in the 40-50 mph range for 12+ hours which would suggest a major blizzard where it snows...what a beauty...



#11
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Looks like some good icing?

#12
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:35 AM

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Looks like some good icing?

Not sure...

 

Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm.  



#13
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Within 5 days now but good to see gfs/euro/gem/Ukie showing a strong system

#14
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:38 AM

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This thing crawls...takes 24 hours to track from near DSM into the IN/OH border...where were you in the past 2 cycles???


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#15
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:40 AM

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Not sure...
 
Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm.


2-2.5 qpf amounts is solid

Just sucks tho that we don’t have a strong high to the north. Would be a waste

#16
Hawkeye

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Looks like some good icing?

 

It doesn't appear to be an icing situtation.  The temp, even under the snow, will have trouble getting down to 32.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#17
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:47 AM

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Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa.  There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

I've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs.  A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system.



#18
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:49 AM

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It doesn't appear to be an icing situtation.  The temp, even under the snow, will have trouble getting down to 32.


I’m guessing the pink is just a mix of rain/snow?

#19
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

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I've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs.  A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system.

With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#20
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:59 AM

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With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us.


The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD...

#21
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

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The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD...

That said, temps struggling to get below freezing with snow as heavy as that coming down, and on the cool sector of a 980mb low? In April sure. At the end of Feb, yea right.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#22
Tom

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:38 AM

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12z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit farther south from last nights 00z run and now showing 2-4"+ across S WI...except for SE IA, everyone else is in the game across the state of IA and of course up into MN.



#23
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:56 AM

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12z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit farther south from last nights 00z run and now showing 2-4"+ across S WI...except for SE IA, everyone else is in the game across the state of IA and of course up into MN.


Maps?

Ensemble mean is 997 near Chicago at 120

#24
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:57 AM

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Within 5 days now but good to see gfs/euro/gem/Ukie showing a strong system

I wanna get within 24 hours before I bite on this one. Both of the past 2 systems were over amped at this range.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#25
Tony

Posted 24 February 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Will be rain south of the WI border. The ones who see snow now will see more snow next week.

#26
indianajohn

Posted 24 February 2018 - 01:07 PM

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the set up reminds me of the 1998  March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!!

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches....


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#27
indianajohn

Posted 24 February 2018 - 01:15 PM

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March 9th 1998 storm......

 

http://mesonet.agron...hour=0&minute=0



#28
WBadgersW

Posted 24 February 2018 - 01:40 PM

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Good, lets finish the snow off and move on.

#29
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 01:52 PM

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​It doesn't seem to cut very much so that is good. Maybe the slp wont track across IA for once



#30
bud2380

Posted 24 February 2018 - 01:55 PM

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DVN calling it a Bowling ball type system. The Euro certainly makes things interesting. Still 5 days out from the peak of the storm.

#31
bud2380

Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:06 PM

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18z gfs still too far north for my backyard. Low comes trough east central Iowa then over to Chicago. Need it to drop 100-200 miles south. Probably not gonna happen.

#32
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:19 PM

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DMX:
Summary...Quiet weather will dominate the next few days, along with
temperatures rising above freezing, even into the 50s across the
south. Wed/Thur could be impactful with guidance beginning to show
some semblance of agreement of a large wrapped up low sliding across
SE Iowa. Implications may range from heavy
rainfall to blizzard-like
conditions across Iowa
.  Quiet, relatively warm weather returns to
end the week/start next weekend.

 



#33
St Paul Storm

Posted 24 February 2018 - 02:37 PM

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Gonna be a heavy wet snow wherever it falls. Marginal temps all over the potential areas that may get hit.

#34
jaster220

Posted 24 February 2018 - 04:15 PM

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Not sure...

 

Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm.  

 

:(  :( ..sorry to be the buzz-kill, but don't need another drop in any form over here in SWMI, but ofc, look what we're in for  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:

 

Highest level for the Kzoo river at Kzoo since records been kept: 

 

Attached File  24Feb2018_River_Flood_Information3.png   153.33KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#35
jaster220

Posted 24 February 2018 - 04:30 PM

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the set up reminds me of the 1998  March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!!

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches....

 

That was a "surprise storm" for sure considering the Super-Nino had delivered almost zero snowfall that winter along with record warmth in Feb iirc. I had just returned the week prior from S California where spring was blossoming already and your's truly was in full warm mode! My place was only 1 air mile from the S. Bend airport and I had more like an 8-10" amount with drifting in the open farm areas. Not sure where they're getting that 16.5" amount for S. Bend tbh? That would've been much more impressive for sure. Was still a unique storm the way it actually came in as a decent rainstorm, then kept going, eventually dropping the other shoe


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#36
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

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0z GFS really consistent

https://www.tropical...18022500&fh=108

#37
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:11 PM

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Hate how it really gets going east of here

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#38
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:11 PM

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GEM is farther south and weaker (997 mb south of Chicago)

Looks like Iowa does well although not sure til precip maps come out

#39
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:11 PM

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0z GFS really consistent

https://www.tropical...18022500&fh=108

Looks like heavy snow imby. Whats snowfall map look like?

#40
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:17 PM

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Looks like heavy snow imby. Whats snowfall map look like?


http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#41
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:19 PM

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Total QPF

http://www.pivotalwe...6&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#42
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:21 PM

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Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems.  lol


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#43
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:23 PM

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GEM

https://www.tropical...18022500&fh=120

#44
gosaints

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:25 PM

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Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems. lol


No kidding... I am sure the atmosphere will take it into account...

Still take it with a grain of salt range anyhow....

#45
snowstorm83

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:26 PM

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Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems.  lol

 

How did you get 55,000 followers on your Facebook page? LOL


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#46
gosaints

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:32 PM

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How did you get 55,000 followers on your Facebook page? LOL


Weather whispererererer
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#47
james1976

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:35 PM

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Gosaints crushed on gfs and gem. Lot of moisture with this storm. Will it back off as we get closer? Thats been the theme.

#48
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:35 PM

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Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems.  lol


Like Mother Nature picks the winner of who gets the storms

#49
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:43 PM

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GFS spitting out those fantastic 5-7:1 ratios. Gonna be a lot of back injuries with this one.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#50
hlcater

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:44 PM

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  • 1270 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

How did you get 55,000 followers on your Facebook page? LOL

Think of the people that are on Facebook. They don't know any better.


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn