Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 As we get ready to close out what has been an extraordinary month of weather, March will open up like a Lion across the central CONUS. I can tell you, that I'm absolutely amazed at the countless examples of how the LRC has been a great long range forecasting tool this season. The next large system that will likely effect the MW/GL's region is directly related to the Oct 9th-11th system that tracked just south of Denver, into the TX Panhandle, E OK, W AR, STL, Kankakee, IL and thru N/C IN, all awhile, a blocking Banana HP sitting to the north. Now, look at today's 12z GEFS run and draw your own conclusions. Pretty amazing, right??? If you do the math, this storm system is roughly 142 days from the Oct 9th-11th storm and using a 47 day cycle it matches up perfectly into the beginning of LRC cycle #4. Let's discuss.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 This would be the perfect storm track for us if it were January. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 This would be the perfect storm track for us if it were January.meh we were pretty warm this time last month anyway too. the last 2 weeks of January we were above freezing everyday except for 2 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 That would be an ideal track for mby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z Euro with a very strong system...mid 980's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2018022412&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt= 986 at 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Holy crap...what a run on the Euro...down to 980mb just south of Chicago...and guess what??? It tracks right thru Kankakee, IL into N/C IN...unbelievable Snow maps coming...crush job on DSM and C & N IA into S MN...wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z Euro...eye candy... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z Euro with a very strong system...mid 980's... Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa. There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Wind gusts are in the 40-50 mph range for 12+ hours which would suggest a major blizzard where it snows...what a beauty... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Looks like some good icing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Looks like some good icing?Not sure... Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Within 5 days now but good to see gfs/euro/gem/Ukie showing a strong system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 This thing crawls...takes 24 hours to track from near DSM into the IN/OH border...where were you in the past 2 cycles??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Not sure... Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm. 2-2.5 qpf amounts is solid Just sucks tho that we don’t have a strong high to the north. Would be a waste Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Looks like some good icing? It doesn't appear to be an icing situtation. The temp, even under the snow, will have trouble getting down to 32. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa. There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago. ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.pngI've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs. A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 It doesn't appear to be an icing situtation. The temp, even under the snow, will have trouble getting down to 32.I’m guessing the pink is just a mix of rain/snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 I've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs. A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system.With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us.The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD...That said, temps struggling to get below freezing with snow as heavy as that coming down, and on the cool sector of a 980mb low? In April sure. At the end of Feb, yea right. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit farther south from last nights 00z run and now showing 2-4"+ across S WI...except for SE IA, everyone else is in the game across the state of IA and of course up into MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 12z EPS shifted the snow mean a bit farther south from last nights 00z run and now showing 2-4"+ across S WI...except for SE IA, everyone else is in the game across the state of IA and of course up into MN.Maps? Ensemble mean is 997 near Chicago at 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Within 5 days now but good to see gfs/euro/gem/Ukie showing a strong systemI wanna get within 24 hours before I bite on this one. Both of the past 2 systems were over amped at this range. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Will be rain south of the WI border. The ones who see snow now will see more snow next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 the set up reminds me of the 1998 March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!! A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 March 9th 1998 storm...... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=73&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=9&hour=0&minute=0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Good, lets finish the snow off and move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 It doesn't seem to cut very much so that is good. Maybe the slp wont track across IA for once Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 DVN calling it a Bowling ball type system. The Euro certainly makes things interesting. Still 5 days out from the peak of the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 18z gfs still too far north for my backyard. Low comes trough east central Iowa then over to Chicago. Need it to drop 100-200 miles south. Probably not gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 DMX:Summary...Quiet weather will dominate the next few days, along withtemperatures rising above freezing, even into the 50s across thesouth. Wed/Thur could be impactful with guidance beginning to showsome semblance of agreement of a large wrapped up low sliding acrossSE Iowa. Implications may range from heavy rainfall to blizzard-likeconditions across Iowa. Quiet, relatively warm weather returns toend the week/start next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 24, 2018 Report Share Posted February 24, 2018 Gonna be a heavy wet snow wherever it falls. Marginal temps all over the potential areas that may get hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Not sure... Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm. ..sorry to be the buzz-kill, but don't need another drop in any form over here in SWMI, but ofc, look what we're in for Highest level for the Kzoo river at Kzoo since records been kept: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 the set up reminds me of the 1998 March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!! A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches.... That was a "surprise storm" for sure considering the Super-Nino had delivered almost zero snowfall that winter along with record warmth in Feb iirc. I had just returned the week prior from S California where spring was blossoming already and your's truly was in full warm mode! My place was only 1 air mile from the S. Bend airport and I had more like an 8-10" amount with drifting in the open farm areas. Not sure where they're getting that 16.5" amount for S. Bend tbh? That would've been much more impressive for sure. Was still a unique storm the way it actually came in as a decent rainstorm, then kept going, eventually dropping the other shoe Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 0z GFS really consistent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022500&fh=108 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Hate how it really gets going east of here Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 GEM is farther south and weaker (997 mb south of Chicago) Looks like Iowa does well although not sure til precip maps come out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 0z GFS really consistent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022500&fh=108Looks like heavy snow imby. Whats snowfall map look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2018 Report Share Posted February 25, 2018 Looks like heavy snow imby. Whats snowfall map look like?http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018022500&fh=120&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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