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Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System


Tom

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As we get ready to close out what has been an extraordinary month of weather, March will open up like a Lion across the central CONUS.  I can tell you, that I'm absolutely amazed at the countless examples of how the LRC has been a great long range forecasting tool this season.  The next large system that will likely effect the MW/GL's region is directly related to the Oct 9th-11th system that tracked just south of Denver, into the TX Panhandle, E OK, W AR, STL, Kankakee, IL and thru N/C IN, all awhile, a blocking Banana HP sitting to the north.  Now, look at today's 12z GEFS run and draw your own conclusions.   Pretty amazing, right???  

 

If you do the math, this storm system is roughly 142 days from the Oct 9th-11th storm and using a 47 day cycle it matches up perfectly into the beginning of LRC cycle #4.  Let's discuss....

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12z Euro with a very strong system...mid 980's...

 

Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa.  There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago.

 

ecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like some good icing?

 

It doesn't appear to be an icing situtation.  The temp, even under the snow, will have trouble getting down to 32.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Starts as rain, transitions to heavy snow with strong wind for central/western Iowa.  There's too much warm air out ahead of this system for Cedar Rapids to Chicago.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_ptype_slp_conus_126.png

I've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs.  A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system.

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I've seen models at this range under play the possibility of dynamic cooling, however, within 1-2 days they do a better job digesting the data so its something to look for in future runs.  A strong system as this can produce its own cold air but I'm worried about it begins so strong it will tug up warmer air into the occluding system.

With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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With a low like that, there'd definitely be some dynamic cooling and I was actually about to bring that up. However, on the flip side, stronger lows can sometimes wrap warm air aloft into the cool sector creating mixed precip. Either way, I would love to see a low like that transpire, even if it largely shafts us.

The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD...

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The heaviest band of precip was within the defo band across IA ito N IL/N IN during LRC cycle #1, so I’m pretty confident in a juicy outcome. Will it snow?? As you said, TBD...

That said, temps struggling to get below freezing with snow as heavy as that coming down, and on the cool sector of a 980mb low? In April sure. At the end of Feb, yea right.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Within 5 days now but good to see gfs/euro/gem/Ukie showing a strong system

I wanna get within 24 hours before I bite on this one. Both of the past 2 systems were over amped at this range.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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the set up reminds me of the 1998  March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!!

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches....

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DMX:
Summary...Quiet weather will dominate the next few days, along with
temperatures rising above freezing, even into the 50s across the
south. Wed/Thur could be impactful with guidance beginning to show
some semblance of agreement of a large wrapped up low sliding across
SE Iowa. Implications may range from heavy
rainfall to blizzard-like
conditions across Iowa
.  Quiet, relatively warm weather returns to
end the week/start next weekend.

 

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Not sure...

 

Total qpf...just need this to some how cool enough or dynamic cooling and this could become a much more large scale snow storm.  

 

:(  :( ..sorry to be the buzz-kill, but don't need another drop in any form over here in SWMI, but ofc, look what we're in for  :rolleyes:  :rolleyes:

 

Highest level for the Kzoo river at Kzoo since records been kept: 

 

24Feb2018_River_Flood_Information3.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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the set up reminds me of the 1998  March snowstrom that crippled NWI for 3 days. Started off with rain then cashed in with 10-18" inches of snow. Thw snow was so Heavy it was snapping power lines like twigs...we were without power for 3 days. 80/94 was closed for days with stranded vehicles.. With out a doubt the worst snowstorm I have ever experienced. Here is some info I found about that storm...It was awesome!!!!

 

A strong low pressure system brought a late winter storm to northwest Indiana the morning of March 9th. The low, which originated in the southwestern U.S., took an east-northeast track, reaching central Illinois by the evening of the 8th. Precipitation in the form of rain began out ahead of this system, and changed over to a heavy, wet snow between 7am and 8am (est). The snow continued into the middle of the afternoon on the 9th, dropping around a foot of snow in some places. Lake induced snow showers followed this main storm event and causing additional snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. The combination of strong winds and heavy snowfall brought traffic to a standstill on stretches of I-65 and Interstate 80/94 in Indiana. Some drivers were stranded for as long as 18 hours. Many homes were without electricity, as numerous power lines were downed due to the weight of the heavy, wet snow. Also, tree limbs and branches were downed. Total snowfall storm totals reported: Lake County: Merriville-18 inches, and Crown Point-12 inches. Porter: Valparaiso-15 inches. LaPorte County: Rolling Prarie-18 inches, Stillwell-16 inches, LaPorte-between 13-16 inches, MIchigan City 13.5 inches, and Westville-13.5 inches. Elkhart County: Elkhart-10.5 inches, and Goshen-between 6-8 inches. St. Joseph County: South Bend-16.5 inches, Walkerton-14 inches, and in Mishawaka-12 inches....

 

That was a "surprise storm" for sure considering the Super-Nino had delivered almost zero snowfall that winter along with record warmth in Feb iirc. I had just returned the week prior from S California where spring was blossoming already and your's truly was in full warm mode! My place was only 1 air mile from the S. Bend airport and I had more like an 8-10" amount with drifting in the open farm areas. Not sure where they're getting that 16.5" amount for S. Bend tbh? That would've been much more impressive for sure. Was still a unique storm the way it actually came in as a decent rainstorm, then kept going, eventually dropping the other shoe

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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