Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:45 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Like Mother Nature picks the winner of who gets the storms

 

She does!



#52
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:46 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

How did you get 55,000 followers on your Facebook page? LOL

 

I never knew I was criticizing a Big Shot!



#53
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:47 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

I never knew I was criticizing a Big Shot!

 

I don't have any "followers"; why, I don't even have a page...

 

Nor a Twitter..



#54
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:52 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

I don't have any "followers"; why, I don't even have a page...

 

Nor a Twitter..

 

"Behold; one betrays oneself with one's own tongue above all other ways!"

___Tabitha



#55
Money

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:57 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
If you made a twitter account I’ll follow you
  • Tabitha likes this

#56
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 08:59 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

How did you get 55,000 followers on your Facebook page? LOL

 

Hard work and patience. Have had it going in some form since 2009.


  • jaster220 and snowstorm83 like this

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#57
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:03 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

If you made a twitter account I’ll follow you

 

Thank you Mr. Money; thank you very much!


  • Money likes this

#58
Illinois_WX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:07 PM

Illinois_WX

    Nebraskan Living In Chicago

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1113 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL (Uptown)

Hard work and patience. Have had it going in some form since 2009.


And I kept it alive from 2012-2014. You’re welcome.
  • jaster220 likes this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#59
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:00 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

And I kept it alive from 2012-2014. You’re welcome.

Lol thanks, eventually I will have a website again. 

 

the 0z EURO took a massive crap on the mid week system.


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#60
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:08 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

 

the 0z EURO took a massive crap on the mid week system.

 

Craig, I would appreciate it exceedingly if you would be so kind as to refrain from using such vituperative language; as my delicate ears recoil from such vulgarities.

 

Thnxs in advance...



#61
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:21 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Craig, I would appreciate it exceedingly if you would be so kind as to refrain from using such vituperative language; as my delicate ears recoil from such vulgarities.

 

Thnxs in advance...

LOL. You've got to be joking. Have you met snowlover76 here?


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#62
Tabitha

Posted 24 February 2018 - 11:27 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

LOL. You've got to be joking. Have you met snowlover76 here?

 

Craig, it is very important that we focus on your malfeasance.

 

This habit of yours; of shifting culpability in an effort to exculpate yourself needs to cease immediately; if not sooner.

 

From the tenor of your posts, I get the sense that you are; by your very nature, rebellious...someone who; Goddess forbid and shocking though it may be; might even disobey their girlfriend from time to time.



#63
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:56 AM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Craig, it is very important that we focus on your malfeasance.

 

This habit of yours; of shifting culpability in an effort to exculpate yourself needs to cease immediately; if not sooner.

 

From the tenor of your posts, I get the sense that you are; by your very nature, rebellious...someone who; Goddess forbid and shocking though it may be; might even disobey their girlfriend from time to time.

LOL.


  • jaster220 likes this

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#64
bud2380

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:01 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
6z GFS also much weaker. It took that south shift I was hoping for but at the same time weakened considerably. Looks more like an open wave until it gets well to the east.

#65
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:07 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
14-18 totals in GB and almost a foot of snow here

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Big thing was it stayed weaker until IL and then deepened big time. Also showing colder temps (28-30) compared to the marginal temps earlier runs

#66
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:10 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17100 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

00z EPS did shift south also and trended weaker as well as less snow showing up on this run.  Man, you can't get a better track for IA and the lower lakes posters to get a huge snow storm.  I did anticipate the models to shift the storm track farther south as they digest what will be a record -NAO block.  This storm is just running into too much warm air.  Things can change for those up farther north and west of here.



#67
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:43 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA
Nickels and dimes.
I wish we could just get 1 awesome storm yet before spring is here.

#68
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:54 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

00z EPS did shift south also and trended weaker as well as less snow showing up on this run. Man, you can't get a better track for IA and the lower lakes posters to get a huge snow storm. I did anticipate the models to shift the storm track farther south as they digest what will be a record -NAO block. This storm is just running into too much warm air. Things can change for those up farther north and west of here.


No matter the track not gonna be an easy forecast. Screams pesky warm layers.
  • jaster220 likes this

#69
Hawkeye

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:02 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The Euro has been very inconsistent with this system.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#70
Madtown

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:49 AM

Madtown

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1155 posts
Blah blah blah....give me 50s n 60s done with this crap this winter
  • Tabitha likes this

#71
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:59 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
12z gfs similar to 6z gfs

Western WI crush job at hr 96

#72
Hawkeye

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:00 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1543 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The model inconsistency appears to be all about the timing of the northern and southern waves.  Check out the 12z Saturday Euro vs the 00z Sunday Euro.  The 12z had the southern wave just out ahead of the northern wave, so it was able to go negative, phase, and wrap up into a very strong storm over Iowa.  The 00z, on the other hand, had the northern wave running well out ahead of the southern wave.  The GDPS and ICON models are doing the same thing this morning, speeding up the northern wave and slowing down the southern wave so they can't phase.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_vort_500_conus_108.png   250.81KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_vort_500_conus_96.png   247.53KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#73
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:01 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
Eastern/southern WI slam job at 102

https://www.tropical...18022512&fh=102

#74
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:03 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park
Only 72 hours until buy-in

#75
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts

The model inconsistency appears to be all about the timing of the northern and southern waves.  Check out the 12z Saturday Euro vs the 00z Sunday Euro.  The 12z had the southern wave just out ahead of the northern wave, so it was able to go negative, phase, and wrap up into a very strong storm over Iowa.  The 00z, on the other hand, had the northern wave running well out ahead of the southern wave.  The ICON model is doing the same thing this morning, speeding up the northern wave and slowing down the southern wave so they can't phase.
 
attachicon.gifecmwf_vort_500_conus_108.png
attachicon.gifecmwf_vort_500_conus_96.png


Looks like 12z gem is similar to the Icon as well
  • Hawkeye likes this

#76
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:10 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park
Could easily turn into a very lame solution all around
  • Tabitha likes this

#77
Iowawx

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:11 AM

Iowawx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 450 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa
I hope this is all rain around here. The snow wouldn’t stick to ground for very long and the rain would help get rid of the drought that began here in the fall of 2017.

#78
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:11 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

I hope this is all rain around here. The snow wouldn’t stick to ground for very long and the rain would help get rid of the drought that began here in the fall of 2017.

Is there Frost in the ground?

Winter rain does little in regards to drought.

#79
Iowawx

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:18 AM

Iowawx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 450 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

Is there Frost in the ground?
Winter rain does little in regards to drought.


Highs in the mid to upper 50s will help get rid of the frost.

#80
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:19 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Is there Frost in the ground?

Winter rain does little in regards to drought.

yeah i believe i heard local met say the other day that its 2-3 feet deep.



#81
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:21 AM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4451 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

Highs in the mid to upper 50s will help get rid of the frost.


Not it it's feet deep it won't.

#82
Iowawx

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:23 AM

Iowawx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 450 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

yeah i believe i heard local met say the other day that its 2-3 feet deep.


Wasn’t aware of that. I still would rather have rain because the snow wouldn’t stick for very long and the snow seems like it would be a sloppy wet snow where it occurs.

#83
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:26 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts

Wasn’t aware of that. I still would rather have rain because the snow wouldn’t stick for very long and the snow seems like it would be a sloppy wet snow where it occurs.


So if models showed 12+ with 40 mph winds you would rather have rain?
  • jaster220 likes this

#84
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:28 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

21+ for LSE this run
12 for MSN

Impressive totals

#85
Tabitha

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:29 AM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

12z GFS is horrible; except for Wisconsin.

 

I liked it better when it as least showed make-believe storms; that afforded one cause to anticipate the next model run.

 

Now it is just blasé...



#86
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:34 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

21+ for LSE this run
12 for MSN

Impressive totals

Nice weird hole by me here in IA, lol



#87
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:43 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=096

Ukie has a 998 L over Chicago at 96

#88
Iowawx

Posted 25 February 2018 - 09:07 AM

Iowawx

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 450 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, Iowa

So if models showed 12+ with 40 mph winds you would rather have rain?


This time of the year, yes. If this was in December or January then I would rather have snow.

#89
bud2380

Posted 25 February 2018 - 09:25 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1902 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

UK also favoring Wisconsin.  I can't tell p-types here, but i think most of the snow is confined to Wisconsin.  

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120.png   261.84KB   0 downloads



#90
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 February 2018 - 09:30 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1717 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Minnesota doesn't deserve anymore big systems the rest of the winter, they are as dirty as Norfolk Nebraska is with stealing all the good snow systems. lol


Give it a rest. We average over 10” in March. I’d say we’ll get another one, at least. Fortunately for you we won’t get this one. I think that might push you over the edge for some reason.
  • Madtown likes this

#91
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:14 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
Euro back to a big solution

994 L just south of Chicago

http://www.pivotalwe...6&r=conus&dpdt=
  • Hawkeye likes this

#92
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
Looks like 850’s are cold enough for snow in Iowa and north of Milwaukee

http://www.pivotalwe...6&r=conus&dpdt=

#93
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:19 AM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1012 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)
Kuchera isnt the right method to use for 32 degree events. Thats more so for highs in the teens and 20s

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#94
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:19 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17100 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z Euro suggesting snow is back in the picture for IA and S WI into parts of N IL...



#95
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:21 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts

Kuchera isnt the right method to use for 32 degree events. Thats more so for highs in the teens and 20s


Uh they take in account for ratios...

The other day it was showing 5-8:1 ratios

#96
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:24 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17100 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Temps are so marginal and with highs near 60F the day before its going to be difficult to accumulate on the streets/sidewalks.  This is the type of low ratio/heart attack snow that gets plastered to everything in site.  Anyhow, the Euro is trending towards what I'd through it would and generating its own cold air.  Just give me another 6" to get to normal snowfall and I'll be content.

 

Take a look at the total precip...pretty insane amount of liquid...again, it's absolutely amazing how close this run is getting towards the track and precip shield in the LRC cycle # 1.  Gotta love nature.


  • Tony likes this

#97
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Nice bullseye by Tom!!
​I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty narrow snow band. Gonna be heavy wet snow for sure.
​Of note: Look at the qpf and snowfall map. That's some low ratio stuff.



#98
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:30 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 17100 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Nice bullseye by Tom!!
​I have a feeling this is gonna be a pretty narrow snow band. Gonna be heavy wet snow for sure.
​Of note: Look at the qpf and snowfall map. That's some low ratio stuff.

That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...



#99
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:31 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
Quite the precip gradient with basically zero precip here and 2+ in N IL

#100
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:36 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4223 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...

Do you think it's more realistic for IA since temps should be a lil colder?