Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

[james1976]

Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts.

Yeah i read DMX and was wondering that since the 0z Euro looked wet. Didnt really make sense.

[Hawkeye]

So yesterday, from 12z to 18z to 00z, the NAM took two big steps forward, transitioning from way out of phase nothingburger to well-phased biggie.  Great trend, right?  Well, from 00z to 06z to 12z it gave those forward steps right back.

[bud2380]

I'm going to discount the NAM, because it's the NAM.  

[Hawkeye]

Like the NAM, the ICON became more phased by 00z, but is now back out of phase.  The ICON has been reluctant to wrap this system up in general.

[gosaints]

This looks like it is going to be a all or nothing event... 

 

Passing showers a possibility

[Hawkeye]

Uh, oh.... after days of consistently phasing and wrapping up a biggie, the 12z GFS is showing cracks.  Like the latest NAM and ICON, it's speeding up the northern wave and slowing the southern wave, leading to less/delayed phasing.  Iowa gets squat this run, for the first time.

[bud2380]

GFS shows the storm not getting it's act together until well east of Iowa.  Swing and a miss here.  Let's see what the Euro says.  This is clearly a very difficult storm for the models to handle.  

[Stacsh]

Solid run for Chi-town.  Rain to heavy snow.  

[gosaints]

Epic run.....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018022612/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

Canadian is a big nothing either.  I'm very curious to see the Euro.  It also wouldn't surprise me if we see this storm pop back up again on future runs.  

[NEJeremy]

Reading the DVN and DMX AFDs you once again are left wondering if they are looking at the same models we are. Despite admittedly little confidence DMX has already posted a snow map with light amounts. DVN says 2-4”. DMX says models decreased qpf even though the euro increased it. Regardless we’re probably 36-48 hours away from having a handle on this system. Too many moving parts.

Our WFO has actually been very good with amounts. There has been multiple times this year where looking at models, you wonder what they are looking at with the lower amounts they forecast. In the end they have been very accurate. Of course this could be because it's Nebraska, but I actually trust their forecast numbers over what the models have been showing this winter. Amounts have consistently been overdone on almost every storm on every model from the RAP/HRRR to the NAM to the global models.

[Minny_Weather]

Our WFO has actually been very good with amounts. There has been multiple times this year where looking at models, you wonder what they are looking at with the lower amounts they forecast. In the end they have been very accurate. Of course this could be because it's Nebraska, but I actually trust their forecast numbers over what the models have been showing this winter. Amounts have consistently been overdone on almost every storm on every model from the RAP/HRRR to the NAM to the global models.

They learned from last year when they overforecasted everything. Thankfully for them, this year is a colder copy of last year.

[jaster220]

Craig, it is very important that we focus on your malfeasance.

 

This habit of yours; of shifting culpability in an effort to exculpate yourself needs to cease immediately; if not sooner.

 

From the tenor of your posts, I get the sense that you are; by your very nature, rebellious...someone who; Goddess forbid and shocking though it may be; might even disobey their girlfriend from time to time.

 

 

LOL.

 

@ Tabitha

 

..vituperative..malfeasance..exculpate..blasé

 

Was your great-great-great-grandpa Daniel Webster by any chance? 

[Minny_Weather]

 It also wouldn't surprise me if we see this storm pop back up again on future runs.  

It would surprise me. The way things have gone this year, when a storm is gone, it's gone.

[Hawkeye]

And now the UK is caving... much weaker and east this run.  Gosh dangit.  How many years has it been since the northern and southern streams cooperated for eastern Iowa?

[hlcater]

Of course this happens. Iowa doesn’t get big storms. Duh.

[jaster220]

So, now the 12z GFS takes this on a classic track for SWMI..NAM and Euro also improved a bit on the transition from RN->SN

 

[jaster220]

Of course this happens. Iowa doesn’t get big storms. Duh.

 

Detroit magnet rule in effect. Wouldn't surprise if they ended up being the jack-zone. Still dealing with my flooded basement, so personally the less qpf the better for mby right now. 

[Hawkeye]

12z UK

 

[gosaints]

The thermals on the gfs are terrible. Verbatim Kuchera totals are to high across the board...

 

Need a better phase otherwise wherever the snow falls will be a couple inches of complete slop.

[Jaycee]

You guys can take this one for us. It's already 50 degrees out and am now left wondering why I even want snow. It is seriously amazing outside. Bring me Spring already!

[bud2380]

Euro has a 1001mb low in Central IL at hour 72

[Tom]

This thing crapped out fast...12z Euro is extremely weak...1001 mb low in C IL...LOL...I think the record -NAO has something to do with it.  Its supposed to be off the charts about -5 on the 1st.

[Tom]

You guys can take this one for us. It's already 50 degrees out and am now left wondering why I even want snow. It is seriously amazing outside. Bring me Spring already!

Bro, I'm with ya!  I just had a lunch meeting with a friend and its absolutely gorgeous out there with full sun.  Tomorrow is going to be top notch 61F and blue skies.

[Tom]

Actually, the 12z Euro strengthens rapidly across IN and precip blossoms across N IL/N IN at HR 78 and then into S MI...will post maps soon..

[bud2380]

yep, massive changes on the Euro as well for Eastern Iowa.  Basically rain changing to wet snow, with less than an inch.  Any QPF related to snow went from about 1" to about .15" for Cedar Rapids.  

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[bud2380]

Chicago on this run of the Euro looks like what Cedar Rapids did on yesterday's 2 runs of the Euro.  About 1" qpf with 850s below zero.  So big shift east on the Euro.  

[Hawkeye]

At 500 mb, the 12z euro is doing the same thing as every other model... northern stream is a little faster and digs less until it gets farther east, southern stream is a bit slower.  It still has more for eastern Iowa than other models, but much less than earlier runs.

[hlcater]

Good thing I never really got involved with this one since the runs today are overwhelmingly a massive swing and a miss for E IA, per usual. I honestly don’t think there’s anywhere else in the country that gets more systems yanked away from them than Iowa.

[bud2380]

Well Tom's map painter a better picture than the text output I'm pulling off of accuweather does.  Not quite as far east shift as I thought, but still definitely got worse for a good chunk of Iowa.  

[Hawkeye]

That's an interesting tail the euro has sticking up through MSP.

[gosaints]

weather.us has about .7 QPF at ORD falling as snow...

[Tom]

That's an interesting tail the euro has sticking up through MSP.

Agree, whats up with that???  Well, I guess it will continue to snow where it has been of late at the MSP magnet.

[Tom]

weather.us has about .7 QPF at ORD falling as snow...

That'll prob equate to 4-5" of the wettest snow of the year if it transpires.

[Tom]

It's mind boggling how bad the 00z EPS was from last night suggesting the main snow to fall way north towards MKE/Fondy...only to have the 12z Euro Op and all the other models shift much farther S/SE today.

[gosaints]

That'll prob equate to 4-5" of the wettest snow of the year if it transpires.

Ya somewhere around there.  concrete mixer. 

[james1976]

Yeah its hard to not have spring fever when its 50 and sunny in late Feb.

 

Im grilling a pork chop when i get home.

[jaster220]

12z Euro close-up paints quite a bit now across SWMI

 

If this wasn't several days out yet, this might be the biggest single fall of my season. But, still too much time for it to continue a S and/or E trend, lol

 

[Bryan1117]

Bro, I'm with ya! I just had a lunch meeting with a friend and its absolutely gorgeous out there with full sun. Tomorrow is going to be top notch 61F and blue skies.

54 degrees here and sunny, I have checked out concerning Winter now. Unless it’s a big storm with 8+ inches of snow, keep it away. So glad to see the calendar flipping to my favorite month weather-wise around here (March) in the next few days!