Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

[Craig-OmahaWX]

We all do it even me, but the only reason we use that ratio more then any others because it always makes the accumulations look higher then they will be lol.

[Money]

We all do it even me, but the only reason we use that ratio more then any others because it always makes the accumulations look higher then they will be lol.

Wait how does it make it higher?

 

10:1 ratio is actually higher than Kuchera for this system..

 

For some reason I think if it showed 2 feet for you , you would believe it

[Hoosier]

you realize that kuchera is showing less than 10:1 in this case and as such is a better measure? If it were showing 12-15:1 ratios, that'd be one thing.

Totally agree. Kuchera doesn't automatically depict greater than 10:1 ratios, even though that is often the case. I'm not saying to buy a particular model at this point, but the Kuchera map FOR A GIVEN MODEL should be closer to reality than the 10:1.

[Sciascia]

I'm having a hard time believing any of the snowy solutions will work out for the ORD area. But, since I like crazy NAM runs, I guess I'll be lurking for tonight's model runs.

[Money]

NAM gonna be way weak/south this run

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol im glad i didnt put my heart and soul into the 18z model run. Has nothing over us now and warmer temps tomorrow.

[Sciascia]

This event is different with every run. How is a meteorologist supposed to properly describe/forecast this thing?

[Money]

1000 L near LAF, IN at hr 36

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018022800&fh=36

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This event is different with every run. How is a meteorologist supposed to properly describe/forecast this thing?

Its hard to do but just let it sink in now nothings gonna happen. I believed till the bitter end with our systems and only ended up disappointed. 

[Sciascia]

Its hard to do but just let it sink in now nothings gonna happen. I believed s**t till the bitter end with our systems and only ended up disappointed.

The only thing I'm expecting is rain, if anything. Any snowflakes (not accumulation, just flakes) would be a surprise to me. So I'm going into this level headed.

[Sciascia]

Snow blows up in Michigan at HR45

[Craig-OmahaWX]

My old pal once told me a good quote "Expect nothing and be surprised" 

[Andrew NE]

Is this run of the NAM fully sampled I am assuming?

[bud2380]

If the NAM is to be believed (which it isn’t) an area of snow just parks over Dubuque IA for several hours without moving. Seems very likely

[Money]

If the NAM is to be believed (which it isn’t) an area of snow just parks over Dubuque IA for several hours without moving. Seems very likely

Roadtrip?

[gosaints]

Nam and nam 3km are writing a different script..

[Money]

Nam and nam 3km are writing a different script..

From 1-2 feet to not a flake within 48 hours lol

[Money]

Ha

 

Rgem is more phased and farther north this run

 

999 just south of Chicago at 36

[gosaints]

Ha

 

Rgem is more phased and farther north this run

 

999 just south of Chicago at 36

Ehhh. Looks a good chunk south of chi town right??

[Money]

Ehhh. Looks a good chunk south of chi town right??

Hard to tell on that stupid b/w maps but it’s a good chunk north of 18z

[Money]

Still some major differences

 

6+ for GB this run on the gfs but the track is much weaker/south

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

[Tabitha]

Still some major differences

 

6+ for GB this run on the gfs but the track is much weaker/south

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

 

Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season.

 

There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55").

[BrianJK]

Literally a guessing game:

 

LOT

 

However, it is worth noting that if we see convective

snowfall or possible thundersnow, then snowfall rates and

accumulations could quickly get out of hand along with very low

visibilities and possibly even near blizzard conditions for a

time. Confidence in this worst case scenario is low, but it is

something that will need to be watched as it is well within the

realm of possibilities.

[Tom]

Literally a guessing game:

 

LOT

 

However, it is worth noting that if we see convective

snowfall or possible thundersnow, then snowfall rates and

accumulations could quickly get out of hand along with very low

visibilities and possibly even near blizzard conditions for a

time. Confidence in this worst case scenario is low, but it is

something that will need to be watched as it is well within the

realm of possibilities.

Crap shoot, literally...should be interesting watching the radar tomorrow...btw, how were your tacos yesterday???  I actually had Jamaican Jerk taco salad!

[Snowshoe]

A strip from LaCrosse, Wis Rapids to Green Bay has seen an unusual winter. Below normal temps, above normal precip and below normal snowfall. Lots of frz rain and slop.

 

Duluth is interesting. The "warmth" of the lake certainly influences weather but another large factor is elevation. I don't know what the elevation change is exactly but the city is basically built on a cliff. Temps are cooler and the elevation adds lift.

 

Fun stuff Tabitha.

 

Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season.

 

There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55").

[Stacsh]

From GRR

 

"The GFS looks like

the odd model out, with the NAM and Canadian similar with the
overall evolution. The ECMWF is near that of the NAM and Canadian.
The bottom line is we are expecting some phasing over our area
Wednesday night into Thursday."

[westMJim]

Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season.

 

There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55").

The same is true at Marquette, MI were  the official air port site is located  at Neqaunee, MI in the hills west of Marquette. The official snow fall for Marquette (the Marquette area) is now at 113.9" for this season while at the downtown the season total is 66.4"  The airport is not only inland but also higher in elevation. The city is warmer with a west wind (down sloping) but is much cooler in the spring and summer with a east or northeast wind.   

[westMJim]

I think we still have to keep a eye on tomorrows system. The storm track is in a location that can bring a lot of wind and snow to Michigan and it is still only March. Time to see if all of the expensive models can really pick up on the old “surprise” storms. I have a felling this storm could be one of the old time “surprise” storms with so keep a eye out for that to happen’
 

[Niko]

I think we still have to keep a eye on tomorrows system. The storm track is in a location that can bring a lot of wind and snow to Michigan and it is still only March. Time to see if all of the expensive models can really pick up on the old “surprise” storms. I have a felling this storm could be one of the old time “surprise” storms with so keep a eye out for that to happen’

 

This can bring 6"+ to some locales. That is what they are calling for my area. Rain, quickly going to a heavy, windriven snow. The snow will go from a wet to a drier formation w drifting and blowing.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Will continue to advertise the potential for accumulating snowfall,
with the bulk of it falling in a 6-9 hour window late Thursday
afternoon through midnight. Placement and amounts of highest totals
remains uncertain, with amounts exceeding 4 inches in play. Much
higher totals are also in play, with the potential for 6+ inches
mainly north of M-59. The forecast will likely continue to rapidly
evolve over the next 24-36 hours, so be sure to continue checking
for frequent updates as totals are refined.

[Niko]

 

6"+ for my area!

[westMJim]

for what it is worth,

Here is the WPC’s take on the snow potential for the upcoming storm system’

4” or more

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

8” or more

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif

12” or more

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif

[gosaints]

 

6"+ for my area!

locked and loaded

[Madtown]

[Hawkeye]

This system really turded out for Iowa.  Getting northern and southern energy to align just right for us is like getting all the planets to align.

[Tony]

Need this to phase a littler sooner for those west of here but at least 12z Nam heading in the right direction. Model madness to continue for the next couple runs as they still cannot figure this storm out.

[Niko]

There goes Mi stealing all my snow!!! (please read with sarcasm)

[BrianJK]

Crap shoot, literally...should be interesting watching the radar tomorrow...btw, how were your tacos yesterday??? I actually had Jamaican Jerk taco salad!

Delicious. Almost snapped a pic of the steaks on the grill they looked so amazing. Was also great to hear/see people walking dogs, joggers, kids playing, etc.

 

That taco salad sounds interesting - might have to try that.

[jaster220]

This can bring 6"+ to some locales. That is what they are calling for my area. Rain, quickly going to a heavy, windriven snow. The snow will go from a wet to a drier formation w drifting and blowing.

 

locked and loaded

 

There goes Mi stealing all my snow!!! (please read with sarcasm)

 

Once AGAIN, SEMI makes off with the best goods..tho that 12z NAM is more generous for SWMI back my way. Looking good to hit 60" for mby

 

[jaster220]

Look at thermals.  There is pinging

 

Shoulda just said P-type issues, then I woulda understood what you meant.     On something with a classic RN->SN via dynamic cooling, at least over here, we either get-er-done, or we don't. Rarely is a mix-fest in the cards on the margins of winter (front or back). We save all that mix stuff for prime winter months. I'd call it the Lakes Affect. You guys further west that don't deal with the moderating effects of the GL's have a different scenario for better or worse

 

DTX's afd backed-up my post yesterday..

 

"This also favors a little earlier rain to

snow transition across the area while using a composite QPF before

precipitation diminishes during the evening. Not much mixed precip

is expected, mainly just a transition from rain to snow."