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March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 26 February 2018 - 08:04 AM

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It's time to spring our clocks forward an hour. Will we see our first mid-50s day this month? Maybe sub-60's? Doubt it, but we'll see...


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#2
seattleweatherguy

Posted 26 February 2018 - 11:02 PM

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Hope to see plenty of cold and snow and maybe a 70 on April 1st!
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#3
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 11:29 AM

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Lets see what March will deliver for us. Looking like cooler than normal weather for a bit at least. 

 

CFS for the next 7 days.

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_1.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Yeah, definitely off to a good start it appears.

We should pin this thread soon.
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#5
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:12 PM

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Nice, someone already moved my post over. 

 

*pinned


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#6
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:18 PM

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At the very least I could see many lowlanders getting at least some sloppy snows at some point during the month.

#7
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 02:50 PM

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12z GFS showing snow for Friday morning still.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_13.png


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#8
Geos

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:00 PM

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ICON brings the precip in a bit later than the GFS. In the end it is a bit warmer.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

icon_asnow_nwus_25.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 37.39", 12/03
Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 27°, 12/4

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#9
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 03:03 PM

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Looks like March is coming in like a lion! LOL!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 04:48 PM

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Looks like March is coming in like a lion! LOL!

 

Anthony?



#11
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 04:59 PM

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Anthony?


That guy is probably a millionaire.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#12
Poulsbo Snowman

Posted 28 February 2018 - 05:17 PM

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Isn't this thread a bit premature?

#13
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 05:43 PM

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Isn't this thread a bit premature?


Pretty good model agreement on March starting in the next 6-72 hours.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#14
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 05:53 PM

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Pretty good model agreement on March starting in the next 6-72 hours.


CFS keeps pushing it back to the 11-15 day range.
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#15
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:01 PM

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CFS keeps pushing it back to the 11-15 day range.

 

But epic cold 3 out of the last 4 runs, so we're looking good!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#16
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:03 PM

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But epic cold 3 out of the last 4 runs, so we're looking good!

 

I'm already buying frost tarps for the upcoming 7/11/08 redux.


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#17
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:20 PM

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Pretty impressive to see a strong indication of another well below normal period developing a bit later in the month.  Some runs have hinted at a March 2012 type scenario.  Could be some situations with SW flow cold enough to produce snow.  This area does well with those.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#18
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:22 PM

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The GFS, WRF, and NWS all like the idea of snow late tomorrow night / Friday morning.  Would certainly get the month off on the right foot.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#19
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:33 PM

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At the very least I could see many lowlanders getting at least some sloppy snows at some point during the month.

 

 

We have had a number of March's with snow this century.  Pretty good bet with this one the way things look right now.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#20
HighlandExperience

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:41 PM

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We have had a number of March's with snow this century.  Pretty good bet with this one the way things look right now.

 

the 00z 3K nam is still trying to put snow on us Friday. Hard to see though on the big map. 



#21
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 06:49 PM

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One of the most intriguing things about this year so far is the abundance of analogs we have been seeing from the 1950s (including the warmer periods such as January).  Currently we are seeing a large number of analogs from 1954 popping up, after seeing a good showing from 1951, 1955, 1956, and 1957 in recent weeks.  1954 is a very interesting analog because that year featured some freakish spring cold snaps, including the record shattering cold wave that brought a hard freeze to many locations on May 1 of that year.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#22
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:18 PM

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We have had a number of March's with snow this century.  Pretty good bet with this one the way things look right now.

 

Only one March since 2009 with measurable snow at SEA. Bit of a drought, currently.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#23
TT-SEA

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:20 PM

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One of the most intriguing things about this year so far is the abundance of analogs we have been seeing from the 1950s (including the warmer periods such as January).  Currently we are seeing a large number of analogs from 1954 popping up, after seeing a good showing from 1951, 1955, 1956, and 1957 in recent weeks.  1954 is a very interesting analog because that year featured some freakish spring cold snaps, including the record shattering cold wave that brought a hard freeze to many locations on May 1 of that year.

 

Some similarities between 1951 and 1954 in that regard.  

 

Snoqualmie Falls had a 70/30 day on 4/11/1954.

 

And on the 5/1/1954 day you mentioned above... the high was 63 after a low of 26 there.    And that was followed by a 69/32 day on 5/6/1954.  

 

There were numerous days with chilly nights and warm days in the spring of 1954.



#24
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Some similarities between 1951 and 1954 in that regard.

Snoqualmie Falls had a 70/30 day on 4/11/1954.

And on the 5/1/1954 day you mentioned above... the high was 63 after a low of 26 there. And that was followed by a 69/32 day on 5/6/1954.

There were numerous days with chilly nights and warm days in the spring of 1954.


Lead to one of our best summers on record as well.

#25
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:26 PM

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I'd be surprised if we crack 85 this summer.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#26
TT-SEA

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:28 PM

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Lead to one of our best summers on record as well.

 

Actually... 1951 fits that bill.   



#27
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:28 PM

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I'd be surprised if we crack 85 this summer.

You mean 105?

#28
Timmy

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:37 PM

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I'd be surprised if we crack 85 this summer.

I’d be surprised if we are even surprised this summer.

#29
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:38 PM

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I’d be surprised if we are even surprised this summer.


I think you'd be surprised...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#30
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:40 PM

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I think you'd be surprised...

 

August icebox?



#31
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:48 PM

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August icebox?


MAMJJA permafrost.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#32
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:50 PM

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MAMJJA permafrost.


Sounds like another warm September. <_<

#33
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:51 PM

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Wet snow in the air?

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_37.png



#34
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:53 PM

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No 00z on TimBits? Won’t come up for me anyway.

#35
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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No 00z on TimBits? Won’t come up for me anyway.


Same for me.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#36
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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No 00z on TimBits? Won’t come up for me anyway.

ICON and NAM works, neither of the GEM or the GFS work.  Weird.  



#37
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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3km NAM looks good for snow Friday AM around Portland, EPSL, and north interior.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#38
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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3km NAM

 

Not too bad

 

nam3km_asnow_nwus_61.png



#39
Deweydog

Posted 28 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Sounds like another warm September. <_<


Blistering.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#40
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

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ICON and NAM works, neither of the GEM or the GFS work. Weird.

Seems to be working finally!
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#41
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:10 PM

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The wind is blowing at between 45 and 55 mph on exposed coastal sections of south eastern Vancouver Island.   Seems to be around 35 or 40 mph here.  


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#42
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:12 PM

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Blistering.

 

It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#43
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:24 PM

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It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due!


Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one.

#moredue

#44
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:29 PM

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Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one.

#moredue

 

Wasted a lot of cold anomalies on January 2017.  :(


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#45
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Only one March since 2009 with measurable snow at SEA. Bit of a drought, currently.

 

I'm surprised.  I've had quite a number here.  Cold onshore flow is obviously more favorable the closer you get to the Cascades though.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#46
snow_wizard

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:35 PM

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Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important.  Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#47
Front Ranger

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:36 PM

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Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important.  Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen.

 

Looks like a decent little deformation zone is likely for at least the south sound. Temps may be more of the issue, especially if it doesn't move through until late morning.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#48
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:38 PM

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NAM had about a 34/32 with temps and Dewpoints Friday morning with the deformation. Not much accumulation below 500' though.
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KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#49
umadbro

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:39 PM

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If the precip arrives about 3 hours earlier, it will be a different story.

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid


#50
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 08:46 PM

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00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course. 

 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png


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