March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

The wind is blowing at between 45 and 55 mph on exposed coastal sections of south eastern Vancouver Island.   Seems to be around 35 or 40 mph here.  

[Front Ranger]

Blistering.

 

It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due!

[Jesse]

It's been 4 years since the last record warm one at PDX. Due!

Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one.

 

#moredue

[Front Ranger]

Just 54 since the last record cold one! 53 since we even had a top 5 cold one.

 

#moredue

 

Wasted a lot of cold anomalies on January 2017. 

[snow_wizard]

Only one March since 2009 with measurable snow at SEA. Bit of a drought, currently.

 

I'm surprised.  I've had quite a number here.  Cold onshore flow is obviously more favorable the closer you get to the Cascades though.

[snow_wizard]

Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important.  Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen.

[Front Ranger]

Tomorrow night precip intensity will be extremely important.  Models struggle mightily with precip amounts in ULL situations so surprises could happen.

 

Looks like a decent little deformation zone is likely for at least the south sound. Temps may be more of the issue, especially if it doesn't move through until late morning.

[umadbro]

NAM had about a 34/32 with temps and Dewpoints Friday morning with the deformation. Not much accumulation below 500' though.

[umadbro]

If the precip arrives about 3 hours earlier, it will be a different story.

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030100/048/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[bainbridgekid]

WRF staying pretty consistent:

 

[MossMan]

WRF staying pretty consistent:

 

Still a blue dot over my house!

[seattleweatherguy]

Still a blue dot over my house!

Then it has to be right! Hopefully the nam agrees

[Perturbed Member]

WRF looks good for PDX

 

[ShawniganLake]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030100/048/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

WRF looks good for PDX

 

Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

 

Rod Hill:

 

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

 

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.

 

 

KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.

[Esquimalt]

D81B2140-3F77-43B4-A4E9-BF6F901F728E.png

Looks like an Esquimalt special on this one.  Temps are pretty marginal though...   

[MossMan]

Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

 

Rod Hill:

 

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

 

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.

 

 

KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.

But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

D81B2140-3F77-43B4-A4E9-BF6F901F728E.png

 

That's a nice looking deformation band hanging up around Victoria on Friday morning. Would be quite the surprise for anyone exclusively following the EC forecast. This does feel like a case where the deformation band will likely jog quite a bit north of where it's currently shown to end in the models. Typically it ends up around Nanaimo, but with the low coming in this far south maybe we'll get lucky.

[Perturbed Member]

Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

 

Rod Hill:

 

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

 

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.

 

 

KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.

 

Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though.

[Esquimalt]

And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out?

For an all day snow/ice storms and major Arctic Blast. He said he could still see snow like in March 2012.

 

"Of course in any year we can still get a brief wet morning snowfall even at the lowest elevations in March, but in these La Niña winter/springs the chance of that happening is higher. Remember March 2012? That’s an extreme version of what can happen, but we saw significant sticking snow overnight hours several times, including at the coastline. In fact even later this week (mainly Friday) we could see brief snowfall in the overnight/morning hours. That’s assuming we have enough moisture when it’s cold enough."

[VancouverIslandSouth]

And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances   

 

Short range improvements > long range teases.

[ShawniganLake]

Short range improvements > long range teases.

And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though.

The 00z RGEM and HRDPS both show some strong snow showers Monday morning. Would be the absolute perfect timing to get some accumulations.

 

[Jesse]

Models have definitely trended a little wetter overall with the upcoming trough. That will mean more highs in the 40s (and snow chances overnight), but also not as many lows near or below freezing.

[Jesse]

And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways.

Could you post the chart? Mine isn’t refreshing for some reason.

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

[Esquimalt]

6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.png

Weird how the models don't have any clue on what's going to happen--they're all in disagreement--even though we're about 36 hours out.  I think this will be a nowcast event.  

[MossMan]

6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.png

That does not look good for the Puget Sound area.

[Perturbed Member]

That does not look good for the Puget Sound area.

 

Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands.

[ShawniganLake]

Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands.

light precip and temps a little above freezing.

[Perturbed Member]

light precip and temps a little above freezing.

 

Yeah the temps are just going to be marginal, but seems precip amounts are still up in the air. Going to need solid precip rates and good timing to get anything to stick at low elevations. I suspect someone will probably score a little bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 with a little light rain falling. 

 

Closed out February with a 39/33 day. 

 

Still a few inches of snow on the ground. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average.

[Farmboy]

3km NAM

 

Not too bad

 

Not too bad? What are you talking about, it sucks arse...

[Tyler Mode]

February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average.

98% of average precip for me...amazing how things changed the further north you got precip wise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting March off with 32 and a light snow shower.

[MossMan]

35 and mostly cloudy here. As of this morning my snow coverage is gone, just my piles remain. That was one heck of a stretch with snowcover!