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March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
bainbridgekid

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:01 PM

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WRF staying pretty consistent:

 

ww_snow24.48.0000.gif


Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#52
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:04 PM

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WRF staying pretty consistent:

ww_snow24.48.0000.gif

Still a blue dot over my house!

#53
seattleweatherguy

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:06 PM

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Still a blue dot over my house!


Then it has to be right! Hopefully the nam agrees
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#54
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:09 PM

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WRF looks good for PDX

 

or_snow24.48.0000.gif


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#55
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:11 PM

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Attached File  D81B2140-3F77-43B4-A4E9-BF6F901F728E.png   268.08KB   0 downloads
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#56
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:25 PM

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00z GFS still sticking to same snow amounts over PDX. Still very marginal of course.

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

WRF looks good for PDX

or_snow24.48.0000.gif


Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

Rod Hill:

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.


KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.
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#57
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:26 PM

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Looks like an Esquimalt special on this one.  Temps are pretty marginal though...  :)  :)



#58
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:29 PM

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Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

Rod Hill:

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.


KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.

But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out?
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#59
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:30 PM

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That's a nice looking deformation band hanging up around Victoria on Friday morning. Would be quite the surprise for anyone exclusively following the EC forecast. This does feel like a case where the deformation band will likely jog quite a bit north of where it's currently shown to end in the models. Typically it ends up around Nanaimo, but with the low coming in this far south maybe we'll get lucky.



#60
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:30 PM

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Looking good for PDX Metro. Rod Hill and KPTV look to be on board. Hopefully we can all see at least 2 inches here in PDX Metro.

Rod Hill:

THURSDAY: Showers Thursday night will become all snow with possible light accumulations at sea level.

FRIDAY: A decent chance of morning snow showers with a dusting to 2" of possible snow at the lowest elevations.


KPTV: IF showers form right over us late tomorrow night or Friday morning, sticking snow is a possibility just about anywhere since the airmass will be pretty chilly.

 

Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though.


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#61
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:31 PM

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And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances  :angry:  :angry:



#62
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:39 PM

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But I thought that Mark Nelson Nielsen dude pulled his sporks out?


For an all day snow/ice storms and major Arctic Blast. He said he could still see snow like in March 2012.

"Of course in any year we can still get a brief wet morning snowfall even at the lowest elevations in March, but in these La Niña winter/springs the chance of that happening is higher. Remember March 2012? That’s an extreme version of what can happen, but we saw significant sticking snow overnight hours several times, including at the coastline. In fact even later this week (mainly Friday) we could see brief snowfall in the overnight/morning hours. That’s assuming we have enough moisture when it’s cold enough."
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#63
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:39 PM

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And of course as soon as things are looking good for Friday the LR GFS removes our snow chances  :angry:  :angry:

 

Short range improvements > long range teases.



#64
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:53 PM

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Short range improvements > long range teases.


And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways.
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#65
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:54 PM

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Yeah pretty good set of 00z model runs so far for PDX. We'll have to see what the euro thinks though.


The 00z RGEM and HRDPS both show some strong snow showers Monday morning. Would be the absolute perfect timing to get some accumulations.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_36.png
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_37.png
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png
rgem_asnow_nwus_48.png
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#66
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 09:54 PM

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Models have definitely trended a little wetter overall with the upcoming trough. That will mean more highs in the 40s (and snow chances overnight), but also not as many lows near or below freezing.

#67
Jesse

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:02 PM

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And the long range ensemble actually looks better anyways.


Could you post the chart? Mine isn’t refreshing for some reason.

#68
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:12 PM

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Attached File  6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.png   202.82KB   4 downloads

#69
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:14 PM

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#70
Esquimalt

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Weird how the models don't have any clue on what's going to happen--they're all in disagreement--even though we're about 36 hours out.  I think this will be a nowcast event.  



#71
MossMan

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:31 PM

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6E164972-E1D1-4EEA-A51E-C73E8FAA4F21.png

That does not look good for the Puget Sound area.

#72
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:39 PM

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That does not look good for the Puget Sound area.

 

Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands.



#73
ShawniganLake

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:54 PM

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Doesn't look so great anywhere in the lowlands.

light precip and temps a little above freezing.

#74
nwsnow

Posted 28 February 2018 - 10:59 PM

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light precip and temps a little above freezing.

 

Yeah the temps are just going to be marginal, but seems precip amounts are still up in the air. Going to need solid precip rates and good timing to get anything to stick at low elevations. I suspect someone will probably score a little bit. 



#75
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2018 - 03:10 AM

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34 with a little light rain falling. 

 

Closed out February with a 39/33 day. 

 

Still a few inches of snow on the ground. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#76
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2018 - 04:36 AM

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February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#77
Farmboy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 05:11 AM

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3km NAM

Not too bad

nam3km_asnow_nwus_61.png


Not too bad? What are you talking about, it sucks arse...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#78
Tyler Mode

Posted 01 March 2018 - 05:30 AM

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February ended up a solidly below normal temperature month in W. Oregon. With precip only about 50% of average.

98% of average precip for me...amazing how things changed the further north you got precip wise.



#79
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 March 2018 - 06:25 AM

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Starting March off with 32 and a light snow shower.
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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#80
MossMan

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:17 AM

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35 and mostly cloudy here. As of this morning my snow coverage is gone, just my piles remain. That was one heck of a stretch with snowcover!

#81
Eujunga

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:48 AM

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35 and mostly cloudy here. As of this morning my snow coverage is gone, just my piles remain. That was one heck of a stretch with snowcover!

 

Isn't there an ointment for that?


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#82
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Nam shows close to a foot of snow here over the next couple days

#83
MossMan

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Isn't there an ointment for that?

There is, the prescription is MORE SNOW!! 😀
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#84
Front Ranger

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:14 AM

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I got a fever...

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#85
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:21 AM

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Nam shows close to a foot of snow here over the next couple days

 

Good Lord.

 

The 00Z ECMWF showed 51 at PDX this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon and 49 on Saturday afternoon.   Hard to believe you will have that much snow with those temperatures around Portland.  

 

I am hoping to avoid possibly an inch tomorrow morning.    The ECMWF shows no snow at my house over the next 10 days.



#86
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Good Lord.

The 00Z ECMWF showed 51 at PDX this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon and 49 on Saturday afternoon. Hard to believe you will have that much snow with those temperatures around Portland.

I am hoping to avoid possibly an inch tomorrow morning. The ECMWF shows no snow at my house over the next 10 days.


Looking at other models I’m less convinced. The 3km nam has done better here than any mode. The hi res wrf showed about 9” on 00z run last night too.

#87
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Sunny with a few brief hail showers here this morning; the first hail I've seen here in over a year. Tomorrow still looks like it could get interesting.



#88
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Looking at other models I’m less convinced. The 3km nam has done better here than any mode. The hi res wrf showed about 9” on 00z run last night too.

 

Here is total snow over the next 10 days per the 00Z ECMWF.   I highly doubt you see anything close to a foot of snow in the next couple days.   The ECMWF cannot be that wrong.   The small amount it shows in my area was supposed to mostly happen last night and this morning and there was nothing.  

 

ecmwf_tsnow_washington_41_2.png



#89
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Still shows 6” here.

Attached Files



#90
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:33 AM

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Good Lord.

The 00Z ECMWF showed 51 at PDX this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon and 49 on Saturday afternoon. Hard to believe you will have that much snow with those temperatures around Portland.

I am hoping to avoid possibly an inch tomorrow morning. The ECMWF shows no snow at my house over the next 10 days.


What would an inch of snow hurt?

#91
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:37 AM

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What would an inch of snow hurt?

 

Just annoying... don't want any snow at this point.    



#92
BLI snowman

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:38 AM

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What would an inch of snow hurt?

 

It's after Christmas so snow is gross.


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#93
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:39 AM

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It's after Christmas so snow is gross.

 

Indeed.   

 

Timmy agrees.   He is counting down the days until Hawaii.    :)



#94
BLI snowman

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:41 AM

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Indeed.   

 

Timmy agrees.   He is counting down the days until Hawaii.    :)

 

I also really root against sunshine after the 4th of July and against rain after Veterans Day.



#95
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:42 AM

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It's after Christmas so snow is gross.

much less enjoyable after jan 31st.
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#96
TT-SEA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:43 AM

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I also really root against sunshine after the 4th of July and against rain after Veterans Day.

 

Liar!  



#97
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Just annoying... don't want any snow at this point.


:rolleyes:

#98
Jesse

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:45 AM

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much less enjoyable after jan 31st.


I’ll take what I can get. I don’t live at 1,000’+

#99
Timmy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:49 AM

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I’ll take what I can get. I don’t live at 1,000’+

I hope you do get some! I would much rather have 3” 1500’ down to sea level than 12” here and rain in the valley at this point in the season.

#100
umadbro

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:07 AM

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I'll never understand why people don't like the fact that ttsea doesn't want snow. Is it really that big of a deal?

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid