March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

[BLI snowman]

 

 

Eh....

[TT-SEA]

If you realize Tim is going to cherry pick the warmest model possible and talk about it endlessly then there is nothing to get upset about. It is his preference.

Endlessly?

 

Its the ECMWF and it was one post. Compared to the cold and snow echo chamber on here... I am very restrained.

 

I do like the 12Z ECMWF overall though.

 

And when did you become part of the censorship police here? Please let me know when its OK to discuss anything else but cold and snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Endlessly?

 

Its the ECMWF and it was one post. Compared to the cold and snow echo chamber on here... I am very restrained.

 

I do like the 12Z ECMWF overall though.

 

And when did you become part of the censorship police here? Please let me know when its OK to discuss anything else but cold and snow.

Does the censorship police have uniforms?

[MossMan]

Does the censorship police have uniforms?

Yes, you need to look like this...

[luvssnow_spokane]

If you realize Tim is going to cherry pick the warmest model possible and talk about it endlessly then there is nothing to get upset about. It is his preference. 

To be fair, there is quite a bit of cherry-picking of cold model runs and picking results from some of the most odd and inaccurate models if they show cold/snowy results. Now, nobody complains about that because that is what the crowd wants. The "GIVE US BARABUS" mentality goes both ways on here. We want what we want but is not often fair or correct. We are ALL guilty of this on some level or another.

 

I appreciate hearing both sides as the outcome is usually some place in the middle. ALL the picking on Tim is often one-sided... NOT always deserved. He has a point, just like the cold model pickers do.

[stuffradio]

To be fair, there is quite a bit of cherry-picking cold of model runs or picking results from some of the most odd and inaccurate models if they show cold/snowy results. Now, nobody complains about that because that is what the crowd wants. The "GIVE US BARABUS" mentality goes both ways on here. We want what we want but is not often fair or correct. We are ALL guilty of this on some level or another.

 

I appreciate hearing both sides as the outcome is usually some place in the middle. ALL this picking on Tim is often one-sided... NOT always deserved. He has a point, just like the cold model pickers do.

You're throwing bible references in here. Impressive.

 

People spend endless hours searching for rain/damp and cold temps, others spend hours searching for a mixture of rain/warmth, and the rest dry/warmth. People are allowed to cherry pick their own preference, just stop getting mad at others when they want one preference over the other. ifred has had to tell you guys endlessly in the past, why do we need to un-ban or un-mod preview people and still have the same results happen? If warm anomalies trigger you, or cold anomalies trigger you, take a break from the forums, otherwise keep discussing instead of saying "Tim this" "Tim that" when you're also guilty of the same thing.

[Jesse]

Gonna be a long spring...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 at PDX!

 

I was surprised as it is raining and 42 at SLE where I am.

[TT-SEA]

50 at PDX!

 

I was surprised as it is raining and 42 at SLE where I am.

 

The ECMWF from last night was correct!  

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a long spring...

 

 

Right.

 

This was the offending post today.    I sure know how to throw this place into a tizzy by stepping outside the cold circle-jerk bounds.    

 

But it was a factual post.   It really does show that.   I will mention things I like... just like every other person on here.  Particularly when the ECMWF shows it.   

 

12Z ECMWF moved away from a return to cold... actually looks almost spring-like on the surface maps later in the run. Not too wet either.

 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... last week I threw in this place into a total meltdown when I mentioned that ECMWF was showing a slightly drier and warmer (note this does NOT mean warm) pattern at least for the Seattle area late this week with the main action shifting south into CA and OR.

 

And what happened? Its partly sunny and around 50 in Seattle today. Probably for the next few days as well. This is precisely what I indicated the ECMWF was showing in my post last week.

 

I do not randomly cherry pick warm models... it has to make sense and be somewhat likely to happen. I usually assume the worst.

[FroYoBro]

Side note... last week I threw in this place into a total meltdown when I mentioned that ECMWF was showing a slightly drier and warmer (not warm) pattern at least for the Seattle area late this week with the main action shifting south into CA and OR.   

 

And what happened?  Its partly sunny and around 50 in Seattle today.   Probably for the next few days as well.   This is precisely what I indicated in my post last week.   

Dude, no one is even talking to you. Jesse's post wasn't even directed at you. 

[Geos]

12km 18z NAM probably the snowiest models right now for the EPS Lowlands

 

[TT-SEA]

Dude, no one is even talking to you. Jesse's post wasn't even directed at you.

Yes it was... as I know from a side conversation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eh....

 

That is a lot of snow up here. Probably way overdone.

[Deweydog]

That is a lot of snow up here. Probably way overdone.

Looks like an E and an h and four dots to me.

[ShawniganLake]

Models are all over the place for tomorrow still. Euro shows lots of precip and 3” of snow here. 18Z Nam is nearly dry and totally snowless

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ECMWF from last night was correct!  

 

Did it show low 40s for the rest of the valley? 

 

50 in March is pretty run of the mill, its actually still a few degrees below average. I think people get annoyed because you imply 50 at PDX is a "warm" day. It is actually a cool day for this time of year. 

 

Spring is interesting. Its probably in the mid-30s at my house right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models are all over the place for tomorrow still. Euro shows lots of precip and 3” of snow here. 18Z Nam is nearly dry and totally snowless

 

85818B97-66F5-4AFD-9125-8EC42509356C.png

 

Models are pretty insistent I will see 2-4" of snow tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

Did it show low 40s for the rest of the valley? 

 

50 in March is pretty run of the mill, its actually still a few degrees below average. I think people get annoyed because you imply 50 at PDX is a "warm" day. It is actually a cool day for this time of year. 

 

Spring is interesting. Its probably in the mid-30s at my house right now. 

 

Here is what it showed for today's highs on the 00Z run last night...

 

 

SEA has already reached 49 so it was a little too cool up here.  

 

And I am well aware that 50 is run-of-the-mill for March... but its definitely warmer than last week.     And last week we were talking about the GFS showing more record cold for the end of this week based on a few cherry picked runs.  

 

Last week I said the ECMWF showed a drier and warmer pattern for the Seattle area.    And specifically said that "warmer" does not mean "warm".    It was right with the general evolution which shifted the action farther south.  

[BLI snowman]

Looks like an E and an h and four dots to me.

 

Matt's thinking 3-5" in Hockinson.

[Deweydog]

Tim is brilliant, as clearly indicated by Tim.

[Deweydog]

Matt's thinking 3-5" in Hockinson.

Eh....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother just reported it is snowing in Coquille in Coos County down in Southern Oregon right now. About 40' asl.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is brilliant, as clearly indicated by Tim.

 

No... I am usually burned by declarative statements.   Almost every time!  

 

But the ECMWF is fairly good most of the time and using it can make you appear brilliant even when you are not.      

[Jesse]

Yes it was... as I know from a side conversation.

No, it actually wasn’t.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 at Myrtle Point. 174' ASL. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No... I am usually burned by declarative statements.   Almost every time!  

 

But the ECMWF is fairly good most of the time and using it can make you appear brilliant even when you are not.      

 

Tim, its snowing near Sea Level in Southern Oregon right now. Did your EURO tell you that?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I will be out of town for a major snow event...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the long range GFS is absolutely DEMONIC.

[Jesse]

Wow the long range GFS is absolutely DEMONIC.

Yeah, looking at the 12z EPS it’s pretty obvious where the operational Euro goes off the rails. Cuts the next trough off way too much around next Wednesday and the run is basically garbage beyond that. Wouldn’t put a lot of stock into it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just got a report it is snowing at my house.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, looking at the 12z EPS it’s pretty obvious where the operational Euro goes off the rails. Cuts the next trough off way too much around next Wednesday and the run is basically garbage beyond that. Wouldn’t put a lot of stock into it.

 

EURO cutoff low bias. I haven't payed attention to the EURO in weeks. EURO snow maps are essentially garbage. The NAM is a much more useful short range tool. 

[Jesse]

EURO cutoff low bias. I haven't payed attention to the EURO in weeks. EURO snow maps are essentially garbage. The NAM is a much more useful short range tool.

My trusty Euro link wasn’t working for a week or two in late February, so I basically stopped looking at it for awhile. I think they were updating the official site, which I really prefer to TimBits as far as the graphics go.

 

Long story short I was really no worse off for it.

[Jesse]

Just got a report it is snowing at my house.

Please tell me you trained your dog to txt you.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like I will be out of town for a major snow event...

 

 

 

Yes... 240 hours on the 18Z GFS is usually locked in stone.   

 

Cherry picking and declarative statement are your specialty!  

[TT-SEA]

EURO cutoff low bias. I haven't payed attention to the EURO in weeks. EURO snow maps are essentially garbage. The NAM is a much more useful short range tool. 

 

 

Last week... the ECMWF showed a ULL scenario to our south for late this week and weekend with scattered precip and warmer temperatures.

 

The GFS was showing a full arctic blast with region-wide snow and possible record cold.  

 

Best to ignore the ECMWF.        

 

You are trolling.  

[FroYoBro]

My brother just reported it is snowing in Coquille in Coos County down in Southern Oregon right now. About 40' asl.

Pretty impressive for the afternoon. 

[TT-SEA]

Tim, its snowing near Sea Level in Southern Oregon right now. Did your EURO tell you that?!

 

It certainly showed the main action and center of the cold anomalies sinking south into OR and CA.   

 

That was the entire point of my post last week.   That is a nicer pattern for the Seattle area.