March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I need to do a search on my Excel spreadsheet.  

 

High temp of 60 degrees or higher

 

Snowfall greater than 0

 

Not sure how many days fit that mold here since 1895... maybe none.  

[Jesse]

The Euro has been wildly different in the 7-10 day range every run. More consistent GFS might be the way to go right now.

[TT-SEA]

The Euro has been wildly different in the 7-10 day range every run. More consistent GFS might be the way to go right now.

 

Or its picking up on something that the 12Z runs will all show?   Time will tell. 

[Jbolin]

Well... Thursday is about as interesting as it gets around here.  

 

High temps early in the day... shows 60 out here.

 

 

 

And then dumping snow by evening...

 

 

 

That is some serious Midwest sh*t right there.

WTF? Is this Denver?

 

 

[Jesse]

OLM and BLI have seen a lot of sub freezing lows this month.

[Jesse]

It looks like the EPS wants to hold the trough over us longer and rise heights slower than the operational Euro. More in line with the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

It looks like the EPS wants to hold the trough over us longer and rise heights slower than the operational Euro. More in line with the GFS.

 

 

00Z EPS was a bit warmer with the trough at day 7 and 8 compared to the last couple runs... and then warms up faster and stronger than previous runs.     

 

I just did a side-by-side comparison of 850mb temps on the 12Z run and the 00Z run.    

 

It is slightly slower than the operational run but there is an impressive warm up from day 8 through 10 (next Sat - Mon).

[Jesse]

850 temps will be colder on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run due to the time of day.

 

Got down to 40 here. Heading for more afternoon sunbreaks and mid-50s today.

[TT-SEA]

850 temps will be colder on the 12z run compared to the 00z run due to the time of day.

 

Got down to 40 here. Heading for more afternoon sunbreaks and mid-50s today.

 

Not a problem on WB.    There are images every 12 hours on each run.

 

And I when I do a comparison on there... I am clicking on the previous frames for that exact period.

 

The 00Z EPS was a bit warmer than the 12Z run for day 7 and 8 at the peak of the trough.   It had been colder on each of the last few runs.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 44.

[TT-SEA]

PDX up to 44.

 

You are going to get your cold PDX high on Friday and maybe Saturday.   Going to be really tough to get to 50 those days.   It will all work out. 

 

And the 12Z GFS is faster on Thursday with the heavy precip... so maybe even that day as well unless there is a midnight high ahead of the front. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It really looks like there could be some decent snow up here later next week. Though Tim is saying 70s and sun so it could really go either way at this point.

[TT-SEA]

It really looks like there could be some decent snow up here later next week. Though Tim is saying 70s and sun so it could really go either way at this point.

 

 

Yeah... that is what I said.   Look back at the last page.  

 

Almost guaranteed that you and I see some significant snow... and probably some lowland areas as well. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... that is what I said.   Look back at the last page.  

 

Almost guaranteed that you and I see some significant snow... and probably some lowland areas as well. 

 

It looks very March 2012ish.,

[TT-SEA]

It looks very March 2012ish.,

 

Yeah... for a couple days.   

 

This month is very different than March 2012 overall though.  

[TT-SEA]

GFS continues to be slow and inconsistent with a ridge building in behind the cold trough.   

 

I am going to defer to the EPS which has been much more consistent overall.   Its been showing the cold trough coming later next week since it came into view about 9 or 10 days ago.    It has been consistently showing ridging building in by 3/25 as well.  

[snow_wizard]

OLM and BLI have seen a lot of sub freezing lows this month.

 

Just what I wanted to see this spring.  This morning was number 8 for here.  Not every day you see low morning low clouds invade in March right after a frost.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice progression shown on the 12z GFS later in week 2.  A nice shot of chilly Canadian air.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS is about as good as it gets.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... for a couple days.   

 

This month is very different than March 2012 overall though.  

 

Of course there will never be another month like it.

[GHweatherChris]

I think this March will end up like March 2018, just a hunch.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is a fairly epic run for this late. Good ensemble support too. Would be nice to see the pattern finally start to get some Niña teeth this month (just maybe)...

[snow_wizard]

Of course there will never be another month like it.

 

It was actually kind of a poor man's 1951.

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS is a fairly epic run for this late. Good ensemble support too. Would be nice to see the pattern finally start to get some Niña teeth this month (just maybe)...

 

It would actually be a nice follow through from February.  Barring a Nino I really like where we stand for next winter.  A Nino is pretty d**n unlikely thank goodness.

 

Amazing how the GFS ensemble keeps making the coming cold snap longer and longer.

[TT-SEA]

It would actually be a nice follow through from February. Barring a Nino I really like where we stand for next winter. A Nino is pretty d**n unlikely thank goodness.

 

Amazing how the GFS ensemble keeps making the coming cold snap longer and longer.

GFS ensembles have been way too aggressive for about a month now. Ignoring the consistent EPS? It will likely be right as usual.

 

The only significant cold shot the EPS has shown is the one coming later this week. The GFS ensembles were even cold leading up to last weekend.

 

I guess its dopamine for some. Even if its been terrible lately.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is faster with the trough again on Thursday. Takes away the amazing crash the 00Z run showed for the day. Some lowland snow on Thursday night into Friday morning still. On phone at swim lessons and cannot post map yet.

[HighlandExperience]

12Z ECMWF is faster with the trough again on Thursday. Takes away the amazing crash the 00Z run showed for the day. Some lowland snow on Thursday night into Friday morning still. On phone at swim lessons and cannot post map yet.

How much snow for King County? Free site loading slow

[TT-SEA]

How much snow for King County? Free site loading slow

Through Saturday morning... about an inch for most of the Seattle area out to Issaquah and Snoqualmie... and maybe 2-3 inches out here.

[TT-SEA]

Also shows a massive snowstorm for ND and MN next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is back to reality with a slower building ridge after the trough. At least its not terribly wet. Sunday looks pretty decent actually on the surface map... some sun and mid to maybe upper 50s.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is consistent with the EPS now... broad area of warm air and ridging moving in by day 9 and 10.

[HighlandExperience]

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

Another beautiful sunny morning here... models show some convection this afternoon unlike the past couple days that were almost totally sunny.

[snow_wizard]

Another beautiful sunny morning here... models show some convection this afternoon unlike the past couple days that were almost totally sunny.

 

We have low clouds here.  It was almost like what you would see in the summer except it was frosty when the clouds first arrived.

[snow_wizard]

I am pretty sure most areas will see some snow falling from Thursday night through early Saturday morning at some point.

 

It looks pretty promising.  It actually shows it cold enough to snow with SW flow.  This area can do well with that.

[TT-SEA]

We have low clouds here. It was almost like what you would see in the summer except it was frosty when the clouds first arrived.

Very much like summer status... its up to back side of our ridge.

[HighlandExperience]

It looks pretty promising.  It actually shows it cold enough to snow with SW flow.  This area can do well with that.

 

Hope so. that would be amazing to see snow close to sea level. this late in the season. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Euro taking a step toward the GFS. Until days 9-10 which have been completely different for each of the last 4-5 runs.

[James Jones]

I am pretty sure most areas will see some snow falling from Thursday night through early Saturday morning at some point.

 

Does it still show any accumulation for PDX metro south?