March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Really like the dry transition out of the trough starting to show up on the models. Should be a lot more opportunities for frosty nights the rest of the month.

[Phil]

You need to wipe your camera clean. I can’t see your snow.

Lol. I would, but it’s on my ice-covered roof.

 

And FWIW, it’s still freezing rain here. Got 1” of bonus snow/sleet earlier, but the ULL won’t capture the surface low for a few hours.

[Phil]

Strike that, it is snowing, but it’s a “snow drizzle”. Weird.

 

Each flake is individual. You can see the unique designs when they land on your shirtsleeve.

[HighlandExperience]

Sunshine... low humidity... pleasant temperatures... stunning scenery... endless outdoor activities.

 

Its paradise here in the summer most of the time. We tolerate winter and live for summer.

Summers in PNW best in nation imo

[Jesse]

Summers in PNW best in nation imo

 

It's true. Makes their gradual Californication over the last five years even sadder.

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

52EC8164-D249-43B8-A331-7199D2DF17A9.png

 

Just beat me... had it uploaded.   

 

A little bit more for the lowlands... but I went through each period and the majority of that comes on Friday afternoon around here and temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s at the time.  

[TT-SEA]

Really like the dry transition out of the trough starting to show up on the models. Should be a lot more opportunities for frosty nights the rest of the month.

 

The 00Z ECMWF is also much drier with the transition period compared to its 12Z run.

 

Warm front precip went through Tuesday morning on the 12Z run... but on the 00Z run its basically dry starting on Sunday for the entire region.    

[snow_wizard]

Really like the dry transition out of the trough starting to show up on the models. Should be a lot more opportunities for frosty nights the rest of the month.

 

Good stuff for sure.  At one point the surface gradients are northerly with 850s of -6 or -7.  Record low potential for sure.

[snow_wizard]

It's true. Makes their gradual Californication over the last five years even sadder.

 

It will change.

[snow_wizard]

Legit snow chances Friday and Saturday mornings.  Nice to see it on the WRF now.

[TT-SEA]

Legit snow chances Friday and Saturday mornings.  Nice to see it on the WRF now.

 

Yeah... I was thinking the best chance to actually see snow falling appears to be Saturday morning.   I think the stuff on Friday is hail and graupel showers.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is really nice... dry for all of next week.   And appears to be heading towards a perfect Easter weekend.

[snow_wizard]

1954 is coming up as an analog on pretty much every GFS run now.  That is highly significant when you consider the historic cold we saw in the spring and summer of that year.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[TT-SEA]

1954 is coming up as an analog on pretty much every GFS run now. That is highly significant when you consider the historic cold we saw in the spring and summer of that year. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Probably not significant when you consider that it does not have the pattern correct in the long range as has been the case for several weeks now.

[ShawniganLake]

1954 is coming up as an analog on pretty much every GFS run now. That is highly significant when you consider the historic cold we saw in the spring and summer of that year. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Wow that was a chilly year. We had snow falling in late April here and temps never topped 80 that entire summer. Seems improbable we would see something like that this year.

[Jesse]

Probably not significant when you consider that it does not have the pattern correct in the long range as has been the case for several weeks now.

You also said the upcoming cold trough was doubtful when I pointed out the potential about a week ago.

 

The Euro moved toward the GFS for days 9-10 from what I can tell. A brush with a clipper like system to end the month certainly looks possible.

[Deweydog]

Truly a treasure trove of material from that movie.

A treasure trove of butt hurt!

 

That sounds like kind of a niche movie.

[Phil]

Probably not significant when you consider that it does not have the pattern correct in the long range as has been the case for several weeks now.

That’s not how analogs work.

[TT-SEA]

That’s not how analogs work.

 

The CPC analogs from the GFS runs are based on the pattern that the GFS shows beyond day 7.     If the pattern is wrong then the list of analog years that it generates from that run will not be meaningful either.

 

But even if the pattern is correct and the list of analog years from that pattern are correct... that does not mean it will continue to follow one of those years for 6 months.   One year will often match many different years at single points in time but none of them in total.

[TT-SEA]

You also said the upcoming cold trough was doubtful when I pointed out the potential about a week ago.

 

The Euro moved toward the GFS for days 9-10 from what I can tell. A brush with a clipper like system to end the month certainly looks possible.

 

Ironically... the ECMWF did show it at that time and I said that it was probably its SW cut off bias coming into play that allowed the system and cold air to come in from the north and it was unlikely to happen.   But it was actually right.  

[TT-SEA]

Surprisingly cold here this morning... I expected clouds by now.

 

31 here and frosty.

 

37 at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 and cloudy here. Hopefully this system overperforms with precip. We are way behind again. There is no such thing as a wet summer in the pnw but if there was ever a year we needed one it is this year.

[TT-SEA]

36 and cloudy here. Hopefully this system overperforms with precip. We are way behind again. There is no such thing as a wet summer in the pnw but if there was ever a year we needed one it is this year.

 

Central and southern Oregon maybe.   

 

BC and WA are rock solid in terms of snow pack and precipitation anomalies and that is going to improve more over then next few days.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central and southern Oregon maybe.

 

BC and WA are rock solid in terms of snow pack and precipitation anomalies and that is going to improve more over then next few days.

Every little bit counts in this climate!

[TT-SEA]

Every little bit counts in this climate!

Very true!

[Phil]

(OT) This is pretty unusual. Snow is sticking to busy, fully treated streets in downtown DC, in the middle of the day, in late March. It was 60*F just 18hrs before the storm started.

 

[weatherfan2012]

(OT) This is pretty unusual. Snow is sticking to busy, fully treated streets in downtown DC, in the middle of the day, in late March. It was 60*F just 18hrs before the storm started.

makes this a win all ready enjoy

[Front Ranger]

Surprisingly cold here this morning... I expected clouds by now.

 

31 here and frosty.

 

37 at SEA.

 

Yet another low well into the 20s at OLM. 

 

Average low so far this month there is around 29 degrees. Only two Marches have had average lows colder than 30: 1954 and 1965.

[TT-SEA]

Yet another low well into the 20s at OLM. 

 

Average low so far this month there is around 29 degrees. Only two Marches have had average lows colder than 30: 1954 and 1965.

 

Looks like a similar period in the middle of March 1954 with dry weather and sunshine... long stretch at Snoqualmie Falls that month with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s.     

 

April and May were actually quite nice overall that year... it was JJA that went completely off track.  

[Jesse]

Ironically... the ECMWF did show it at that time and I said that it was probably its SW cut off bias coming into play that allowed the system and cold air to come in from the north and it was unlikely to happen.   But it was actually right.  

 

The Euro didn't show it until a few days later.

 

It looks like old runs of the Euro only go back to the 16th on the site I use. But I remember that the 12Z Euro on the 13th, the run in question, showed a ridiculous looking cutoff pattern at day 10, with cold air to our northeast and a huge trough off the California coast, with us in no-man's land in between (that day is easy to remember since I actually looked at the run while waiting for the ferry from Port Townsend to Whidbey Island ).

 

In reality we will have a large, consolidated trough moving into the NW this Friday, on what would have been day 10.

[ShawniganLake]

Every little bit counts in this climate!

Not looking good

 

[TT-SEA]

The Euro didn't show it until a few days later.

 

It looks like old runs of the Euro only go back to the 16th on the site I use. But I remember that the 12Z Euro on the 13th, the run in question, showed a ridiculous looking cutoff pattern at day 10, with cold air to our northeast and a huge trough off the California coast, with us in no-man's land in between (that day is easy to remember since I actually looked at the run while waiting for the ferry from Port Townsend to Whidbey Island ).

 

In reality we will have a large, consolidated trough moving into the NW this Friday, on what would have been day 10.

 

 

I actually mocked the ECMWF that morning for cutting of the low way too far west and said the significant cold air it showed at day 10 (this Friday) would probably not happen because the cut off low would not actually be way out there.   I said that you always point out the ECMWF bias and this time it resulted in something you like but not to trust it.   I also said... live by the sword and die by the sword that day in reference to needing its bias to actually be right this time to the get cold air.  

 

It worked out though!   I was wrong.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A bit of drizzle falling now. The parched earth is screaming out for more. 

[Front Ranger]

A bit of drizzle falling now. The parched earth is screaming out for more. 

 

Depending on how the next few days go, this could end up as a very dry Feb/Mar for much of the region.

 

Top 5 driest Feb/Mar periods for PDX: 2013, 1973, 1965, 1964, and 1941. 

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny here... looks like one more nice day.    Should get into the mid to upper 50s.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a similar period in the middle of March 1954 with dry weather and sunshine... long stretch at Snoqualmie Falls that month with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s.     

 

April and May were actually quite nice overall that year... it was JJA that went completely off track.  

 

1954 was kind of interesting in that every month from March - October at SEA had between 1.5" and 2.6" of precip. No sign of the typical seasonality over that period.

[TT-SEA]

Looks pretty much dry up here starting as early as Saturday morning now on the 12Z GFS.   System on Saturday appears to be heading towards SW OR.

[Jesse]

I actually mocked the ECMWF that morning for cutting of the low way too far west and said the significant cold air it showed at day 10 (this Friday) would probably not happen because the cut off low would not actually be way out there. I said that you always point out the ECMWF bias and this time it resulted in something you like but not to trust it. I also said... live by the sword and die by the sword that day in reference to needing its bias to actually be right this time to the get cold air.

 

It worked out though! I was wrong.

That was a different day.