March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

That was a different day.

 

No... I just checked.  It was right after my "I doubt it" comment.

[Phil]

Officially our heaviest snowfall this late in the season since at least 1964 (analog?). Might even hit double digits at this rate.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wish that snow would have hit when I was out there. 

[BLI snowman]

1954 was kind of interesting in that every month from March - October at SEA had between 1.5" and 2.6" of precip. No sign of the typical seasonality over that period.

 

Yeah, that year we were channeling Scotland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim won't like the 12z GFS

[Phil]

Wish that snow would have hit when I was out there.

You can tell it’s March, though. It’s so freaking bright outside that you have to squint.

 

In 2014 we had similar late season snows, and I actually got a bit sunburned while shoveling my neighbor’s driveway. #doofus

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

Tim won't like the 12z GFS

 

We will see how it works out.   

[TT-SEA]

If every snowfall map that Andrew has posted in the last 5 months from the long range GFS runs actually verified it would have been the snowiest winter in history.  

[Phil]

FWIW, the trades are still cranking.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If every snowfall map that Andrew has posted in the last 5 months from the long range GFS runs actually verified it would have been the snowiest winter in history.

False

[Jesse]

No... I just checked. It was right after my "I doubt it" comment.

You are remembering a run from a different day then, because the 12z Euro on the 13th certainly didn’t show a cold trough at day 10.

[Jesse]

False

Would have been the ridgiest winter in history if every day 10 ridge map that was posted had worked out. Maybe next year!

[Jesse]

Decent band of rain working its way up the valley from the south.

[Jesse]

Not looking good

 

8FB55196-6B55-4B8C-8C73-16CF8EE940D1.gif 17F22521-2F79-456C-AE5D-59CFC42CCE40.gif

Those maps are sort of a joke. I can’t remember the last time they didn’t look warm for us in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

You are remembering a run from a different day then, because the 12z Euro on the 13th certainly didn’t show a cold trough at day 10.

It did. And I doubted it would work out. I was wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would have been the ridgiest winter in history if every day 10 ridge map that was posted had worked out. Maybe next year!

The map I posted would not even produce snow below 1500, so I don’t know what he was talking about.

[Jesse]

It did. And I doubted it would work out. I was wrong.

You are remembering wrong. It showed a crazy looking cut off pattern. I mentioned if the cutoff trended further north and east, like last week’s did, it might evolve into an actual cold, troughy pattern. Then you said you doubted it.

 

The Euro didn’t actually come around to a cold trough for the latter half of this week until a handful of runs later.

 

Anyway, this is silly and why people hate us. So maybe if we want to have any further discussion about this we can take it to our PM treasure trove.

[Phil]

I can dig up an archive of that March 13th Euro run if you guys want to settle this in

[TT-SEA]

You are remembering wrong. It showed a crazy looking cut off pattern, I mentioned if the cutoff trended further north and east, like last week’s did, it might evolve into an actual cold, troughy pattern. Then you said you doubted it.

 

The Euro didn’t actually come around to a cold trough for the latter half of this week until a handful of runs later.

 

Anyway, this is silly and why people hate us. So maybe if we want to have any further discussion about this we can take it to our PM treasure trove.

I think it did... that is why I made the sword comment.

[Jesse]

I can dig up an archive of that March 13th Euro run if you guys want to settle this in

Yes, 12z Euro from 3/13/18 at hour 240 por favòr.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here.   And only 4 inches at Snoqualmie Pass.

 

[Jesse]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here.

 

Looks interesting on the coast. They always seem to be favored during these late season events. Probably since a lot of late season snow patterns feature cold onshore flow, and shadowing isn’t as much of an issue there.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is also essentially dry up here on both Saturday and Sunday now.  

 

Looks like low 50s both days as well.  

[Phil]

Yes, 12z Euro from 3/13/18 at hour 240 por favòr.

Yeah, looks like a cutoff/ULL on both the 00z/12z runs for 3/13. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO.

 

 

[Jesse]

Yeah, looks more like a cutoff/ULL.

 

Both the 00z and 12z for 3/13 show the excess ULL activity. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO.

 

This one is the one I was talking about. Cutoff pattern with the northern half of the trough to our NE and a southern part well offshore. In reality it will end up being a consolidated trough moving directly over us.

[Phil]

Here’s hr240 for the 3/13 12z Euro.

 

Way too much offshore ULL.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, looks like a cutoff/ULL on both the 00z/12z runs for 3/13. The Euro tends to bias that way in the long range so it’s not exceptionally surprising, IMO.

 

 

 

 

Thanks Phil.   That is what I remember from the 12Z run that day above.   And this is what it shows now for the same time... it was pretty close.   I was wrong to doubt it.

 

[Jesse]

Thanks Phil. That is what I remember from the 12Z run that day above. And this is what it shows now for the same time... it was pretty close. I was wrong to doubt it.

 

No, you are responding to his map of the 00z. I have no idea why he posted that one too since it just confuses things.

 

We were ALWAYS talking about the 12z run.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... does not look too interesting even up here.   And only 4 inches at Snoqualmie Pass.

 

 

Lame. Seems to be getting dry with every run. Aberdeen does well though. 

[TT-SEA]

No, you are responding to his map of the 00z. I have no idea why he posted that one too since it just confuses things.

 

We were ALWAYS talking about the 12z run.

 

Well... the 00Z run was really close then.

 

The 12Z run was getting there as well.     What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted.

 

I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out.   

[Phil]

Comparing anomalies to absolutes can be deceptive.

 

Here’s what it shows now in terms of 500mb anomalies. Big difference IMO.

 

 

[Jesse]

Well... the 00Z run was really close then.

 

The 12Z run was getting there as well. What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted.

 

I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out.

The GFS caught onto the trough first. The Euro floundered around with improperly placed cutoff lows for several runs before finally settling into what will likely verify.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS caught onto the trough first. The Euro floundered around with improperly placed cutoff lows for several runs before finally settling into what will likely verify.

 

The EPS actually showed it first... but I was not really paying attention at that time.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... the last 7 days have been really nice.  

[Phil]

Well... the 00Z run was really close then.

 

The 12Z run was getting there as well. What allowed that pattern to even evolve was cutting off a low way to the west before that time and that is what I doubted.

 

I am really impressed at how well the 00Z run did for being 10 days out.

I think it’s necessary to acknowledge the operational ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-rear quad drag bias. It’s a well established challenge that is acknowledged by the programmers themselves (and the entirety of the relevant peer reviewed literature).

 

To the contrary, the GFS has a progressive bias and often puts too much convection in the WHEM in the extended range.

[TT-SEA]

I think it’s necessary to acknowledge the operational ECMWF’s cutoff low/SW-rear quad drag bias. It’s a well established challenge that is acknowledged by the programmers themselves (and the entirety of the relevant peer reviewed literature).

 

To the contrary, the GFS has a progressive bias and often puts too much convection in the WHEM in the extended range.

 

Absolutely.

 

I see it all the time.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a trough glancing by through BC on days 9 and 10.    Hopefully that ULL entering the GOA remains progressive and pushes the ridge over us again for Easter weekend.  It looks quite progressive when run the loop.  

 

Day 9:

 

 

 

 

Day 10:

 

 

[Jesse]

GFS leading the way again. Pretty crazy really.

[TT-SEA]

The West Coast "finger of warmth" is back on the ECMWF for later next week.