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March Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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GFS leading the way again. Pretty crazy really.

 

The GFS showed a deep, cold trough for a long time leading up to the weekend of March 10-11.  Andrew was posting snowfall maps for that weekend.  

 

The GFS was also showing next week as being continuously cold and troughy.   Just two days you said there was "no sign whatsoever" of any warmth on the GFS through the end of the month.     Now it looks dry and sunny as the ECMWF was showing.

 

You are being WAY too generous with the GFS performance.    Of course once it get within 7 days it will likely start showing what will happen.   But its been pretty bad after day 8 for at least a month.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS shows a deep, cold trough for a long time leading up to the weekend of March 10-11.

 

Andrew was posting snowfall maps for that weekend.  

 

The GFS was also showing next week as being continuously cold and troughy.   Just two days you said there was "no sign whatsoever" of any warmth on the GFS through the end of the month.    

 

You are being WAY too generous with the GFS performance.    Of course once it get within 7 days it will likely being showing what will happen.   But its been pretty bad after day 8 for at least a month.   

 

The Euro has basically looked ridgy at days 8-10 for every run lately too, before gradually shifting back to reality. Both models have their flaws. 

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The Euro has basically looked ridgy at days 8-10 for every run lately too, before gradually shifting back to reality. Both models have their flaws.

It never looked ridgy for the end of this week and weekend. As soon as it came into view it was troughy.

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The Euro has basically looked ridgy at days 8-10 for every run lately too, before gradually shifting back to reality. Both models have their flaws. 

 

You and Andrew were chirping about how cold the GFS was following the trough for later this week through the end of month for days before that as well.

 

I said the EPS showed it warming up starting Monday.   You kept chirping about the GFS and its cold ensembles.     Now we know that was wrong... but its been selectively forgotten.   ;)

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Another frosty morning at my place this morning. Low of 31.

 

Been getting a lot of yard work done during this nice stretch of weather. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It never looked ridgy for the end of this week and weekend. As soon as it came into view it was troughy.

Dude we are mostly debating silly minutia. It is disingenuous for you to act like the Euro has been this crystal ball while the GFS has been a total joke though, just because you have liked the generally ridgier long range Euro maps more.

 

I think it’s pretty fair to say both models have compromised to some degree, at very least.

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Another frosty morning at my place this morning. Low of 31.

 

Been getting a lot of yard work done during this nice stretch of weather. 

 

54 and mostly sunny out here right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dude we are mostly debating silly minutia. It is disingenuous for you to act like the Euro has been this craystal ball while the GFS has been a total joke though, just because you have liked the generally ridgier long range Euro maps more.

 

I think it’s pretty fair to say both models have compromised to some degree, at very least.

 

 

There is no doubt that the EPS has been far superior to everything else.    I don't care how much you try to muddy the waters.   That is just a fact.    It is as close to a crystal ball as we have available.    It should be the first stop when analyzing anything in the long range.

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You and Andrew were chirping about how cold the GFS was following the trough for later this week through the end of month for days before that as well.

 

I said the EPS showed it warming up starting Monday. You kept chirping about the GFS and its cold ensembles. Now we know that was wrong... but its been selectively forgotten. ;)

Sorry that you find it annoying when people talk about cold models. That is your own personal demon.

 

The jury is obviously still out on the late month period. 10 days away and as we have seen this morning even the Euro can be wildly inaccurate at that range. A compromise between the two models (GFS and Euro) is probably the best bet.

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Sorry that you find it annoying when people talk about cold models. That is your own personal demon.

 

The jury is obviously still out on the late month period. 10 days away and as we have seen this morning even the Euro can be wildly inaccurate at that range. A compromise between the two models (GFS and Euro) is probably the best bet.

 

Not wildly.   I knew the trough later this week and weekend was coming since it came into view on the ECMWF.    I doubted it at first... but that has now been proven to be bad idea.   It never showed a warm ridge.   It honed in on the specific details of a cold trough.   By the evening of 3/13... I knew it was probably inevitable.   I also noticed that day that the EPS was showing it too... which I had missed previously.

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Sorry that you find it annoying when people talk about cold models. That is your own personal demon.

 

The jury is obviously still out on the late month period. 10 days away and as we have seen this morning even the Euro can be wildly inaccurate at that range. A compromise between the two models (GFS and Euro) is probably the best bet.

 

 

This is false.   When the EPS is showing a cold trough then I report that as well and know its likely to happen.

 

What I am saying is that when the EPS is consistently running warm in the long range then its usually futile to be going on and on about cold GFS runs at 300 hours or the GFS ensembles in the long range.   The EPS is typically ignored in that situation.    And when the actual time arrives... everyone forgets how wrong the GFS was and is focusing instead on new cold GFS runs in the long range.  :lol:    

 

Obviously when the EPS is showing cold... then the GFS and its ensembles are also showing cold and praised for being right.   

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Moving this from the other thread to illustrate...

 

When it was 12 days out... this what the EPS showed for next Thursday:

 

eps_t850a_noram_49_1.png

 

 

And here is what the GFS ensembles showed:

 

gefs_t850a_noram_49.png

 

 

 

Here is what the operational models are now showing as its just over a week away.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

 

 

Maybe the EPS was leading the way here?    ;)

 

Quickly forgotten as we now look farther ahead.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim, now you are posting maps at a range we weren’t even debating. I am ready to move on. If it is going to be a war of pure content and tenacity you will always bury me. :lol:

 

I have stuff going on now and this debate has more than moved past its expiration date.

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The EPS is actually a little weaker and slower with the upcoming ridge than the 12z op for days 6-10. As expected, a blend of models will likely end up being correct.

 

I have little doubt the first week of April will be ridgy. Sort of looking forward to it. Could potentially be a pattern with some nice diurnal temp swings if we are able to get some dry continental air in here in the lead up.

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A friend from MN is a pilot... he just posted this picture from DC. That tree does not look dormant. :)

 

29496541_10215733546162268_2086656835095

So now you’re cherrypicking cherry trees? Lol.

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The EPS has definitely nudged toward the GFS in showing the ridge axis remaining further offshore and more energy brushing us to the NE. This is for the end of the month period....not talking about early April which will likely be ridgier.

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The EPS has definitely nudged toward the GFS in showing the ridge axis remaining further offshore and more energy brushing us to the NE. This is for the end of the month period....not talking about early April which will likely be ridgier.

 

No.   

 

Here is what it showed 12 days out from next Thursday:

 

eps_t850a_noram_49_1.png

 

 

And now here is what the operation run shows for the same time...

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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58 and mostly sunny here.     

 

With the beautiful weather coming back next week... this has turned into quite an enjoyable March.   

 

I am sure we will pay for this big time in May.    Count on it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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58 and mostly sunny here.

 

With the beautiful weather coming back next week... this has turned into quite an enjoyable March.

 

I am sure we will pay for this big time in May. Count on it.

Oh please I hope not. What is the point of nasty weather in May?? Doesn't everyone here want to go camping/hiking?

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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58 and mostly sunny here.     

 

With the beautiful weather coming back next week... this has turned into quite an enjoyable March.   

 

I am sure we will pay for this big time in May.    Count on it.  

 

You're currently experiencing one of the driest late winter/early spring periods on record. Pay back for your much cited 2014-2017 stretch.  :)

A forum for the end of the world.

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Welp, that settles it. GOD has spoken.

 

Speaking of God, it looks like OLM fell to 26 again this morning. Getting into pretty notable territory. 

 

Hoquiam, Scappoose, Hillsboro and Kelso also saw sub-freezing lows. As I mentioned a few days ago, many west side locations are on track to have some impressively cold average lows for the month.

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:lol:

 

Tim is correct that the EPS is the most accurate of LR model outputs, and should generally be trusted over the GFS/GFS ensembles.

 

He is incorrect in assuming it will always win. It probably is the best about 70-80% of the time.

 

Fair enough.

 

Its good enough that when the GFS ensembles are showing something you like (or hate) then you should first check with the EPS and give whatever it shows more weight.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Welp, that settles it. GOD has spoken.

 

Speaking of God, it looks like OLM fell to 26 again this morning. Getting into pretty notable territory.

 

Hoquiam, Scappoose, Hillsboro and Kelso also saw sub-freezing lows. As I mentioned a few days ago, many west side locations are on track to have some impressively cold average lows for the month.

Flatiron mentioned it FAR before you did.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This is looking like the second winter in a row where SEA and PDX could handily beat DCA for snowfall. Always nice to see.

DCA still trailing both SEA and PDX for seasonal snowfall. Again. Yikes.

Haha, whoops. Denied.

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The NAM also showing a few hours of heavy snowfall over the puget sound. Not much for us here in Greater Victoria but at least someone will be getting it :lol: :lol:

Puget Sound will not be getting it either.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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