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March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#4301
BLI snowman

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:27 PM

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Looks like a gorgeous Easter coming up.


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#4302
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 03:41 PM

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Some pretty fascinating articles from 1922 discussing the rapid Arctic warming at the time. These accounts largely affirm the 1917/18 start time. (I added the red boxes).

PZkYq4D.jpg
kpXrLXX.jpg
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#4303
Front Ranger

Posted 31 March 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Looks like a gorgeous Easter coming up.


Cue Dewey Jesus joke.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4304
Deweydog

Posted 31 March 2018 - 05:39 PM

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Cue Dewey Jesus joke.


He died.

Not funny.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4305
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:27 PM

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We are on a road trip for spring break, drove to The Oregon Vortex today, gorgeous weather, mid 70s and sunny. Temp peaked at 77 in the truck before climbing the hills on the Redwood Highway to Crescent City after, will be here through tomorrow and then take 4 days to drive up the coast towards home.
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#4306
Deweydog

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:49 PM

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We are on a road trip for spring break, drove to The Oregon Vortex today, gorgeous weather, mid 70s and sunny. Temp peaked at 77 in the truck before climbing the hills on the Redwood Highway to Crescent City after, will be here through tomorrow and then take 4 days to drive up the coast towards home.


Watch out for those roadside overlooks...
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4307
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 06:55 PM

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The SSW/-NAM helped cool the Arctic after the second week of February (shut off warm advection).

The result has been a thickening of the icepack. Nice jump in overall volume over the last month.

6wvsjqI.png

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#4308
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:01 PM

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Of course, the summer weather pattern matters. The month of August in particular has featured exceptionally hostile circulatory conditions for the last few decades, with no exceptions since 1996.
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#4309
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:02 PM

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Watch out for those roadside overlooks...


Most fascinating news story in the pnw since Christian Longo.

Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4310
MossMan

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:08 PM

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Such a lovely day! Mowed for possibly the last time here...a little bittersweet, I dislike mowing since I did it professionally for nearly 20yrs but this yard was a train wreck when I first moved in. Grass was a foot tall and nothing but blackberries in the lower field. All the shrubs and trees were out of control...it was bad. I was able to transform the 2 acres into a simple but functional and much more pleasing property with zero use of any chemical since I have lived here. Amazing what pruning and a regular mowing schedule does. Hopefully the new owners will not let it slip too badly, if they do they will be eaten by blackberries within a year. (However I am leaving the destroyed Willow tree for the new people to deal with...I’m done 😀 )

Attached Files


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#4311
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:13 PM

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I still like a transition out of this pattern during the second half of April.

Tropical forcing flips from very niño-esque (now) back to more niña-esque (after April 10th).

hE92DlR.png

7SQikp6.png
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#4312
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Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:19 PM

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Pleasant end to March. 63/41 here. PDX hit 64.

 

Hard to believe PDX's record MIN/MAX of 49 might be in play tomorrow. Going to be quite the crash.



#4313
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:22 PM

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This early April period should have been a ridgefest. The Aleutian low/Pacific jet is a powerhouse.

However, the downstream western ridge response is being thwarted by the -NAM/-NAO (high latitude blocking feature). I didn’t expect it to resurface this late into the game.

Residual SSW effects on the AAM budget ftw. Equatorward wavetrain press.

ik9K3UE.png
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#4314
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:22 PM

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Mowed today, probably didn’t even need to yet, but it was a nice day.

Down to 38 already under clear skies.

Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4315
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:24 PM

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Watch out for those roadside overlooks...


?

#4316
MossMan

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:27 PM

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?

http://komonews.com/...rash-03-31-2018

#4317
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:29 PM

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This early April period should have been a ridgefest. The Aleutian low/Pacific jet is a powerhouse.

However, the downstream western ridge response is being thwarted by the -NAM/-NAO (high latitude blocking feature). I didn’t expect it to resurface this late into the game.

Residual SSW effects on the AAM budget ftw. Equatorward wavetrain press.

ik9K3UE.png


So, if this tropical forcing can’t pop a western ridge, then the flip to Aleutian ridge/-PNA during the second half of April will probably make it even harder.
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#4318
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:29 PM

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?


Murder suicide

 

Well...Let's just say the circumstances are very suspicious. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4319
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Murder suicide

Well...Let's just say the circumstances are very suspicious.


Oh d**n

#4320
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:44 PM

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522 thickness line makes it to PDX Monday morning. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4321
Jesse

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:47 PM

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Most fascinating news story in the pnw since Christian Longo.

 

Tragic might be a better word.



#4322
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:48 PM

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Oh d**n

 

This report just came out...WOW.

 

http://www.oregonliv...ncart_big-photo


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4323
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:52 PM

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Tragic might be a better word.

 

Well of course it is tragic, but it is also fascinating. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4324
MossMan

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:52 PM

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This report just came out...WOW.

http://www.oregonliv...ncart_big-photo

Wow is right.

#4325
Jesse

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:55 PM

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Bright moon out there. Down to 50.

#4326
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 March 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Tragic might be a better word.


Just a straight sad and dissappointing situation, those kids didn't deserve this, no kids do.
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#4327
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:20 PM

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Down to 36, much cooler evening than I was expecting. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4328
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:31 PM

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Going to end March with only one low above 36.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#4329
MossMan

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Going to end March with only one low above 36.

That’s impressive!

#4330
Phil

Posted 31 March 2018 - 08:57 PM

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Pressure washer. And -NAO.

1lmklAv.png
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#4331
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:14 AM

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Usually -NAO on the east coast is either warm and dry or warm n wet for the PNW. (depending on other factors).  Not this kind of cool wave.



#4332
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:15 AM

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Going to end March with only one low above 36.

? Only one? I am sure you had more then that?  The night before last was pretty warm around midnight.  Actually the last two nights was 33F.  One of the nights recently though it was pretty mild and cloudy most of it.



#4333
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 06:29 AM

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This report just came out...WOW.

 

http://www.oregonliv...ncart_big-photo

Always beware of Deadman's Curve. Don't mess around. 



#4334
Jesse

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:02 AM

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? Only one? I am sure you had more then that? The night before last was pretty warm around midnight. Actually the last two nights was 33F. One of the nights recently though it was pretty mild and cloudy most of it.


He lives at 1,600’.

#4335
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:58 AM

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He lives at 1,600’.

Near the pull off viewpoint or more back in?



#4336
Phil

Posted 01 April 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Usually -NAO on the east coast is either warm and dry or warm n wet for the PNW. (depending on other factors). Not this kind of cool wave.


Not to be rude, but that’s largely a myth. It really depends on the season, and type of block. A west based NAO (of either sign) exerts much greater influence on the PNW/BC than an east based one. Then there’s the question of seasonality and other peripheral forcings.

For instance, in JFM, a -NAO tends to correlate with cooler and drier weather across BC/PNW overall, while a +NAO tends to correlate with warmer/wetter conditions during that timeframe.

However, in OND, there is no long term correlation between the NAO and PNW/BC temperatures or precipitation. At least nothing consistent. However, in more recent decades, the +NAO favors wetter conditions, while the -NAO favors drier conditions. Still no temperature correlation that I can find.

In JAS, the precipitation tendencies reverse, w/ a -NAO correlating to cooler/wetter conditions across BC/PNW, while a +NAO usually features warm/dry conditions. In recent decades, west-based summer -NAO blocks have almost always corresponded to PNW/BC troughing.

During AMJ, there is no long term correlation between BC/PNW precipitation and the NAO, however a -NAO during this timeframe usually features cooler temperatures regionally, while a +NAO usually features warmer temperatures.
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#4337
Jesse

Posted 01 April 2018 - 02:51 PM

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Near the pull off viewpoint or more back in?


In the cavern under North Falls.

#4338
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 03:37 PM

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In the cavern under North Falls.

There is actually a bad road that goes to Shelburg Falls open only in summer for obvious reasons so I wonder if he goes back there or lives back there and has a permit/pass,

 

Sorry for bumping this but I was serious in my reply.   I was wondering if he lived on that. We actually went on it once to the backside of the falls and it was hell but worth the scenery..  It was back in the 09 thru 11 trend whichever was the wettest  Spring that had unusual low snow.  



#4339
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 April 2018 - 03:43 PM

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Not to be rude, but that’s largely a myth. It really depends on the season, and type of block. A west based NAO (of either sign) exerts much greater influence on the PNW/BC than an east based one. Then there’s the question of seasonality and other peripheral forcings.

For instance, in JFM, a -NAO tends to correlate with cooler and drier weather across BC/PNW overall, while a +NAO tends to correlate with warmer/wetter conditions during that timeframe.

However, in OND, there is no long term correlation between the NAO and PNW/BC temperatures or precipitation. At least nothing consistent. However, in more recent decades, the +NAO favors wetter conditions, while the -NAO favors drier conditions. Still no temperature correlation that I can find.

In JAS, the precipitation tendencies reverse, w/ a -NAO correlating to cooler/wetter conditions across BC/PNW, while a +NAO usually features warm/dry conditions. In recent decades, west-based summer -NAO blocks have almost always corresponded to PNW/BC troughing.

During AMJ, there is no long term correlation between BC/PNW precipitation and the NAO, however a -NAO during this timeframe usually features cooler temperatures regionally, while a +NAO usually features warmer temperatures.

So usually we have more westerly flow during summers under west based -NAO's then +?  Is the summers during the 2008-12 periods a west based -NAO dominance for the majority?  It makes sense that west based ones would do it as it's closer to the USA jet stream patterns to influence where east based ones I think would effect the UK/Europe weather patterns more.



#4340
Phil

Posted 01 April 2018 - 04:52 PM

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So usually we have more westerly flow during summers under west based -NAO's then +? Is the summers during the 2008-12 periods a west based -NAO dominance for the majority? It makes sense that west based ones would do it as it's closer to the USA jet stream patterns to influence where east based ones I think would effect the UK/Europe weather patterns more.


Yeah, the summers of 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016 were largely -NAO. Though August 2012 flipped around a bit.

The summers of 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017 were largely +NAO, though it depends which index you use since 500mb can make for deceptive representation of wavenumbers in August and September. Especially for niño years like 2015.
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#4341
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 April 2018 - 08:50 AM

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March ended up -0.9F on the mean. Precip was 40% of normal here.