Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Lol, at this rate we could be buried in ice and still run a +0.5C anomaly. We’re approaching a +2.5C net upward adjustment, nationally. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 Lol, at this rate we could be buried in ice and still run a +0.5C anomaly. We’re approaching a +2.5C net upward adjustment, nationally. I wonder who was doing the "adjusting"? Looks suspect. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 24, 2018 Report Share Posted March 24, 2018 I wonder who was doing the "adjusting"? Looks suspect.Don’t get me wrong, adjustments are necessary and the concepts are well-intentioned, but they should roughly even out to zero in the grand scheme of things, especially in the more recent decades. There is no physically plausible reason for this exponentially increasing trend in the upward adjustments. It’s approaching 10*F now. That is absurd. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Impressively cold late March day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Impressively cold late March day.Some sunbreaks showing up now to keep things from being too notable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Don’t get me wrong, adjustments are necessary and the concepts are well-intentioned, but they should roughly even out to zero in the grand scheme of things, especially in the more recent decades. There is no physically plausible reason for this exponentially increasing trend in the upward adjustments. It’s approaching 10*F now. That is absurd. Can you keep the conspiracy theory tinfoil hat stuff out of here? You can do better. Nobody is adjusting anything by 10 degrees F. You're not doing anyone any favors by making it sound like climate scientists are either 1) crooked or 2) idiots. Except the oil industry of course. Don't forget, you're a student. You don't know better no matter how smart you are. BTW in that previous graph, the units are degrees F so the net adjustment wasn't 2.5 degrees C. As a member of the climate science community (which I am now), this is the kind of stuff that makes me not want to post here. Just being honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Lol, at this rate we could be buried in ice and still run a +0.5C anomaly. We’re approaching a +2.5C net upward adjustment, nationally. Hockey stick! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 If we're able to hang on to our 43 degree high at PDX, that will break the record of 47 from 1996. I remember that day pretty well. March 24, 1996 was an interesting late-season "arctic frontal" passage here in Portland: https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1996/3/24/DailyHistory.html?cm_ven=localwx_history There was mixed rain and snow when the winds switched to easterly late that morning. I remember going through a snow shower on I-205. Then dropping temperatures from late afternoon to evening under cold gorge outlflow, with dewpoints down to 10 by midnight. Really impressive event for so late in the spring. Two days later on 3/26/1996, Minneapolis saw their latest -10 F reading on record as part of the same cold airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 If we're able to hang on to our 43 degree high at PDX, that will break the record of 47 from 1996. I remember that day pretty well. March 24, 1996 was an interesting late-season "arctic frontal" passage here in Portland: https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1996/3/24/DailyHistory.html?cm_ven=localwx_history There was mixed rain and snow when the winds switched to easterly late that morning. I remember going through a snow shower on I-205. Then dropping temperatures from late afternoon to evening under cold gorge outlflow, with dewpoints down to 10 by midnight. Really impressive event for so late in the spring. Two days later on 3/26/1996, Minneapolis saw their latest -10 F reading on record as part of the same cold airmass.PDX is up to 45 on the 5-minute obs now. That is a cool memory though. I wasn’t aware of that event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 18z ensemble is much cooler. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 18z ensemble is much cooler.I noticed the same thing. Much like the EPS which was not mentioned today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I noticed the same thing. Much like the EPS which was not mentioned today. Someone was probably to busy enjoying the warm sunshine and doing yard work to post the good news. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I noticed the same thing. Much like the EPS which was not mentioned today. I never ignore model trends... good or bad. For example... I complained about the ECMWF warm front drizzle already today. I always point out the bad. People don't like that either. You are always looking for trouble. Who me? Jesse tells us he is an angel. Side note... I did talk about the EPS and its essentially unchanged. Dividing line for the forseeable future. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Someone was probably to busy enjoying the warm sunshine and doing yard work to post the good news. It was actually a lovely afternoon up here. Cool but with appreciable sun and dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Here is the 12Z EPS for days 10-15... a little warmer than the 00Z run in the long range but nothing too exciting either way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I never ignore model trends... good or bad. For example... I complained about the ECMWF warm front drizzle already today. I always point out the bad. People don't like that either. You are always looking for trouble. Who me? Jesse tells us he is an angel. Side note... I did talk about the EPS and its essentially unchanged. Dividing line for the forseeable future.Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Wow. Yeah... wow. Since when do I ignore things I don't like in the models? I focus on them and assume the worst. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 PDX rose to 44 as of the 6pm update, but they *MAY* still pull off a sub-45 day. Stay tuned for the 7:25pm round up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Dry air has filtered in... dewpoint down to 32 at SEA and here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Can you keep the conspiracy theory tinfoil hat stuff out of here? You can do better. Nobody is adjusting anything by 10 degrees F. You're not doing anyone any favors by making it sound like climate scientists are either 1) crooked or 2) idiots. Except the oil industry of course. Don't forget, you're a student. You don't know better no matter how smart you are. BTW in that previous graph, the units are degrees F so the net adjustment wasn't 2.5 degrees C. As a member of the climate science community (which I am now), this is the kind of stuff that makes me not want to post here. Just being honest.Oh cry me a river. With all due respect, I don’t think you know two s**ts about what goes into homogenizing surface station datasets, and I’ll bet you’ve never met any of the operational NCDC scientists responsible for doing it. So please drop the fake anger schtick. It’s annoying. I also never claimed anyone was/is “crooked”. That was your own bizarre derivation. I actually said the adjustments were/are well intentioned, as far as I know, so if anything you’re the one seeing ghosts. Also, as a “member” of the academic climate science community myself, it’s my opinion that if your instinct is to get weak-kneed and flabbergasted when asking the tough questions, you’re not going to accomplish anything of worthwhile consequence in your scientific career. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Sun setting against Mt Si right now... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Sun setting against Mt Si right now... Incredibly gorgeous shot. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 39F. I smell my 16th freeze this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Incredibly gorgeous shot. After I saw that on the web cam... I had to walk out a get a picture of the sunset from up here. The brilliance of the white Cascades in the setting sun was amazing. Pictures don't do it justice. Andrew... that gap you see in the shadows to the right is the western opening of Snoqualmie Pass. Through that gap comes all kinds of wintry goodness and dry air and sometimes downsloping warming. Its deceiving because it looks like I am standing at the same elevation, but in reality I standing at about 1,000 feet and the mountains in the distance are probably between 4,000-6,000 feet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 To clarify, what I should have said is that the polynomial trendline is approaching 10*F (per century). Not that the sum of the adjustments is already 10*F. That was my mistake. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Can you keep the conspiracy theory tinfoil hat stuff out of here? You can do better. Nobody is adjusting anything by 10 degrees F. You're not doing anyone any favors by making it sound like climate scientists are either 1) crooked or 2) idiots. Except the oil industry of course. Don't forget, you're a student. You don't know better no matter how smart you are. BTW in that previous graph, the units are degrees F so the net adjustment wasn't 2.5 degrees C. As a member of the climate science community (which I am now), this is the kind of stuff that makes me not want to post here. Just being honest. I can't see where he did anything wrong. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Of course leave it to PDX to keep rising through 7pm. High of 42 at Scappoose, 43 in Hillsboro and 41 in Kelso though. I think somebody has a heat lamp they hold up to the PDX sensor. Rising until 7pm? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I think somebody has a heat lamp they hold up to the PDX sensor. Rising until 7pm?It was probably held down due to precip all day and then rose up to where it would have been when the precip ended. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 SEA pulled off a nice -7 departure today. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 It was probably held down due to precip all day and then rose up to where it would have been when the precip ended. Probably, but that station always seems so warm. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I think somebody has a heat lamp they hold up to the PDX sensor. Rising until 7pm?I think it was the Russian sasquatch with no birth certificate. Inside job. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 42/30 here today. The aforementioned 2.2" of snow early this morning. 34 with some light snow falling now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 44/36 here. Light rain all day. Currently 43. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I can't see where he did anything wrong.I’m kind of shocked, honestly. Demitri had become one of my favorite posters, but I’m not sure I can ever hold that same level of respect now. In just one measly post, he managed to invoke oil companies, call me a conspiracy theorist seeking to discredit scientists (I never revealed any names), wrongly claim that I’d implied ulterior motives, and then suggest that I’m somehow his naive academic underling (had to laugh at the irony there). I don’t see how it’s possible to overlook this one. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Our current neighbors are also relocating and the funniest thing is we will once again be neighbors! They got their keys today so we watched the sunset from their new place. We will be below them at 500ft, they are at 700ft...what a view they have! The start of our new property is in the first pic down below where the group of trees are. We will have the best of both worlds, our place is 5 acres of mostly forest with no visible neighbors but a hike through a trail I am going to make and we will be enjoying sunsets overlooking the water at our neighbor and friends 40 acres. Good times ahead! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 I think somebody has a heat lamp they hold up to the PDX sensor. Rising until 7pm?The same image pops into my head. Still their coldest high of 45 or lower this late since 1985, and good for beating the daily record MIN/MAX by two degrees. It would have been fun to totally blow it away for once, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 SEA pulled off a nice -7 departure today.-8 overall for PDX. A very impressive -13 on the high. It is beginning to look like some places may have another shot at a very cold day on Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Our current neighbors are also relocating and the funniest thing is we will once again be neighbors! They got their keys today so we watched the sunset from their new place. We will be below them at 500ft, they are at 700ft...what a view they have!The start of our new property is in the first pic down below where the group of trees are. We will have the best of both worlds, our place is 5 acres of mostly forest with no visible neighbors but a hike through a trail I am going to make and we will be enjoying sunsets overlooking the water at our neighbor and friends 40 acres. Good times ahead! Looks beautiful Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 25, 2018 Report Share Posted March 25, 2018 Wow... the GEM went completely the other way on the 00Z run. Now goes crazy with the trough next weekend. Completely reversing its trend the other way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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