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East and Gulf Coast Weather 2018

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#551
Phil

Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:51 AM

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Cloudier than expected today. NWS just dropped highs by several degrees. Looks like wind chills drop to -20*F in the mountains tonight, so wind chill advisories have been issued by LWX.

The next pressure surge looks interesting. Wind advisories for gusts to ~ 50mph could be issued for the higher terrain first, after ~ 9pm tonight, and probably for the lowlands thereafter, between 5AM and 2pm tomorrow (when boundary layer mixing becomes more efficient).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#552
Phil

Posted 28 November 2018 - 03:29 AM

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Holy cow, massive gust of wind just now. Shook the house and made screaming noises through the windows.

Edit: The entire household is awake now. Everyone is like “wtf was that?!” :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#553
Phil

Posted 28 November 2018 - 03:32 AM

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Wind advisory now for gusts to 55mph.

That big gust was probably up around 55mph. Struck the house at just the right angle, I guess.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#554
Andie

Posted 28 November 2018 - 05:17 AM

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Holy cow, massive gust of wind just now. Shook the house and made screaming noises through the windows.
Edit: The entire household is awake now. Everyone is like “wtf was that?!” :lol:


What is going on up there this year?

Your winter has been far windier and active in my recollection than previous winters.

Texas is waiting its turn. We're expecting a bad February and March.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#555
Phil

Posted 28 November 2018 - 09:05 AM

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What is going on up there this year?

Your winter has been far windier and active in my recollection than previous winters.

Texas is waiting its turn. We're expecting a bad February and March.


Plenty of wind for sure. Tends to happen with W/NW flow.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#556
Phil

Posted 28 November 2018 - 01:29 PM

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If there’s one thing this climate excels at, it’s cold wind.

Today was raw. Wind chills in the teens and 20s all day with 40-50mph gusts. Brrr.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#557
Andie

Posted 29 November 2018 - 06:40 AM

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Phil, I can't get anyone to weigh in on Oklahoma and Texas. They're all so preoccupied with the northern plains.

What can you say about our late fall and winter action? How long and how deep ?
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#558
Phil

Posted 29 November 2018 - 01:08 PM

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Phil, I can't get anyone to weigh in on Oklahoma and Texas. They're all so preoccupied with the northern plains.

What can you say about our late fall and winter action? How long and how deep ?


I’m not sure yet, but I’d watch January 5th to 25th for some potential cold and/or storminess.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#559
Andie

Posted 30 November 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Thanks. That gives me time to prepare. Also, I hope to have my heating repaired by then.

Some part is coming from a "Patagonia" sheep outpost ! Or seems so.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#560
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 December 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Gfs shows big snow storm next weekend apparently or gooofuuus :lol:

#561
Andie

Posted 01 December 2018 - 10:09 AM

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Not if my heating isn't fixed !
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#562
Phil

Posted 05 December 2018 - 09:11 AM

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Very light snow flurries around today. Heavier squalls down in VA and a nice band up in NJ w/ the norlun trough.

Then NC/S-VA gets slammed by a blizzard this weekend and we get nothing, save a last minute northward jog in the storm track.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#563
Andie

Posted 05 December 2018 - 11:41 AM

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We will see 1.50" to 1.75' rain beginning Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. 

By the time the temps reach freezing the rain will dry up.

 

Typical Texas style. :)

 

Low Sunday evening 31*

High 50*......oh well.


Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#564
Phil

Posted 08 December 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Low of 20.7*F this morning. Coldest of the season so far.

Now we head into a tranquil pattern for the next week. Watching for a stronger cyclone around December 15th.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#565
Phil

Posted 08 December 2018 - 06:36 AM

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Looks like 19*F at Dulles, 16*F at Martinsburg.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#566
Andie

Posted 08 December 2018 - 05:16 PM

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3" rain the past 24 hrs.

Going down to 34* and cloudy skies tonight.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#567
weatherfan2012

Posted 09 December 2018 - 04:17 PM

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Low of 20.7*F this morning. Coldest of the season so far.
Now we head into a tranquil pattern for the next week. Watching for a stronger cyclone around December 15th.

most likey what will happen is you go out of town mother nature decides to throw snow after snow event on to the reagion it seems to work like clock work with you with our weather don't know what it is that mother nature has with you phil but it seems like she has your name on her list when your away :lol:
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#568
Phil

Posted 09 December 2018 - 04:26 PM

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^^^ Ugh tell me about it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#569
weatherfan2012

Posted 09 December 2018 - 10:06 PM

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^^^ Ugh tell me about it.

if there is a silver lining at least the northeast gets screwed to nothing worse then storms that smack the south screw us then smack the northeast so at least there crying as well :lol:

#570
Phil

Posted 11 December 2018 - 07:51 AM

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20.1*F this morning. Nice and crisp.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#571
Phil

Posted 12 December 2018 - 06:55 PM

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Hard to believe how calm it’s been this week. Almost no wind to speak of. Huge change from the last 2 months. And it looks like the tranquil weather will continue until the solstice.

Also, what once looked like an intense storm on the 15th has fizzled into an occluded piece of crap.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#572
weatherfan2012

Posted 12 December 2018 - 07:15 PM

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Hard to believe how calm it’s been this week. Almost no wind to speak of. Huge change from the last 2 months. And it looks like the tranquil weather will continue until the solstice.
Also, what once looked like an intense storm on the 15th has fizzled into an occluded piece of crap.

I was surprised really that Justin Berk went for such an active December in his winter outlook giving the last few December's have been mostly crappy.the thing is those his winter snow fall prediction can still varfi just from one or 2 storms this winter.berk is a great met it just a pain in the real to forecast in this reagion as so much can complicate things.

#573
Phil

Posted 16 December 2018 - 12:04 PM

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~ 2” of rain over the last 36hrs. Officially the wettest year on record at the three major airports (DCA, IAD, BWI).

Cold front blows through tomorrow, finally mixing out the muck as gusty downsloping winds dry/deepen the boundary layer.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#574
Phil

Posted 17 December 2018 - 09:47 AM

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Rain totals ended up between 3-4” across the DC area.

Clearing out today with a light west wind. Expecting a gusty flip to the NW later today behind the cold front, which should complete the clearing-out of the low level moisture.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#575
Phil

Posted 17 December 2018 - 01:40 PM

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Brief pulse of wind with the front, gust to 41mph.

Now dry and breezy with the cool advection ongoing.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#576
Andie

Posted 17 December 2018 - 03:10 PM

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Still,boring.

High in the low 60's. Lows 40-45* today and through the weekend. Overcast

Saturday will see a high of 67, but no big whoop.
20% chance of rain Wed..

I'm sure January will get interesting so I should be grateful that Christmas will be boring weather wise.
Mid January and February are out best chances of snow and deep cold.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#577
Phil

Posted 19 December 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Yet another flood watch up for Thurs night/Fri. This is the 25th flood watch of the year.

Also, a powerful 100mph LLJ will move over the region Thurs night, so gusty winds and spin-up tornadoes are possible in any convective elements that are able to develop along/behind the warm front.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#578
Phil

Posted 21 December 2018 - 08:47 AM

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We just blasted into the warm sector last night. Temp went from 40*F to 62*F in just a few hours on a rare surge of SE winds (almost never get SE winds here except during hurricanes). Now it’s in the mid-60’s with a southerly breeze and high humidity.

Cold front moves thru late this evening. Chance for severe weather and gusts to 60mph right along the front, then the pressure surge/CAA moves in after midnight on gusty winds to 45mph. Temps could drop 30-40 degrees in just 6hrs overnight out west over the terrain.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#579
Andie

Posted 22 December 2018 - 01:52 PM

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Highs in the 60's. Lows 40-57*.

Light breeze, sunny, it's Spring.

Boring, followed by very Dull.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#580
weatherfan2012

Posted 22 December 2018 - 03:25 PM

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We just blasted into the warm sector last night. Temp went from 40*F to 62*F in just a few hours on a rare surge of SE winds (almost never get SE winds here except during hurricanes). Now it’s in the mid-60’s with a southerly breeze and high humidity.

Cold front moves thru late this evening. Chance for severe weather and gusts to 60mph right along the front, then the pressure surge/CAA moves in after midnight on gusty winds to 45mph. Temps could drop 30-40 degrees in just 6hrs overnight out west over the terrain.

I like Justin Berk and respect him alot as he is a good met but I will amint I was surprised he went for a big december on his winter outlook considering the trend has been for the last few years has been for  warm Decembers over all and winter not getting started until January and also considering the trend for the NAO to refuse to go into any sort of long negative phase  would be interested   to know what he was seeing that lead him into thinking December would be a big cold and snow month for the region.And clearly this was not the December that Justin quite expected in his winter outlook but the  thing is if that storm did hit us early in the month then he would have verified it's the luck of the draw sometimes. I don't think january is going to end up being as he expected eather as he went for January being the warm month and I can see how it could go cold it's funny in a way that his entire outlook can very well prove right but his timing of the progression may be off a bit this winter.


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#581
Phil

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Yeah December is barely even a winter month here.

Our fun starts during the third week of January.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#582
weatherfan2012

Posted 23 December 2018 - 12:52 PM

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Yeah December is barely even a winter month here.
Our fun starts during the third week of January.

and march has been wanting to be cold and snowy as of late.also if next winter turns into a moderate borderline strong El nino I wonder with the solar min possable East Qbo if as we have been speculating for a while now that 2019-2020 ends up being the Block Buster in the likes of 2009-2010 95-96 like cases.

#583
weatherfan2012

Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:30 AM

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Yeah December is barely even a winter month here.
Our fun starts during the third week of January.

watch 2019-2020 be our blockbuster moderate or greater El nino East Qbo solar min it would scream big winter to a tee.

#584
Andie

Posted 30 December 2018 - 01:55 PM

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It could.. but this winter is just beginning in many ways.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#585
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:31 AM

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Wow a system that looked like only a few inchs has turned into an overachiever for our reagion for a change this reminds me of some of our old school 6 inch + snow events which has been missing as of late so this is nice to see after a week of horror in my family this past week.

#586
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 26 January 2019 - 03:30 AM

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It looks like fronts with waves will be the pattern for the mid Atlantic. These can under and overachieve. Euro looks most aggressive with frontal wave 72-96hrs with 1-3 inches of snow for Maryland. Higher amounts in the high country.

Also, Arctic outbreak is lessened.Attached File  fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png   199.72KB   0 downloads
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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."