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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

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#1
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:26 AM

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The active pattern continues to roll in the first full week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

12z ICON...

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_55.png

 

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_35.png

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#2
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:33 AM

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The active pattern continues to roll into the first week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

12z ICON...

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_55.png

 

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_35.png

NWS Hastings really talked this up in their afternoon disco yesterday, then downplayed it this morning.  I wonder if some of this new model data may get them talking again.  These type of storms are tough to predict and forecast in that they don't always go the direction that we expect, west to east, southwest to northeast, etc.  Some actually can retrogade.  I am just hoping for some good moisture for our area out of this.


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#3
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:00 AM

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The active pattern continues to roll in the first full week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

Tabitha has been discussing it for the last two weeks...lolz

 

 

I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

 

Someone once asked Me; "Did you ever have a conversation with yourself?"

 

I smartly replied,"Those are my favorite ones; as I am the only one who does what I tell them to do."

 

Lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

I'm sooo funny!


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#4
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:22 AM

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12z GEFS...beneficial precip with this system across the corn belt of IA...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_28.png



#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:45 AM

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I sure hope this tracks a little farther south, if for nothing else the beneficial rainfall that could occur.  Very fearful of the dreaded "dry slot".  NWS Hastings mentioned it this morning.  CMC is farther north and ICON and GFS are the furthest south.  Euro was north at 0Z.  Need to see what the 12Z shows.  



#6
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:49 AM

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I wouldn't mind just getting rain from this. Anything to get the fields wet. I want an early planting season.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#7
bud2380

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:54 AM

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UK looking a lot like the GFS with precip. 

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_144 (1).png   263.03KB   1 downloads



#8
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:56 AM

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UK looking a lot like the GFS with precip. 

 

attachicon.gifukmet_acc_precip_conus_144 (1).png

 

Nice "Screw Zone" over the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills / Rapid City!

 

As My Father would say, "I would have it no other way!"

 

Lolz

 

The UKMET hates this area; just like all the other models...

 

'Tis part of the algorithm; I do believe.



#9
FarmerRick

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:03 AM

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Odd looking...

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png



#10
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:03 AM

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I wouldn't mind just getting rain from this. Anything to get the fields wet. I want an early planting season.

 

Student, farmer, weatherman!

 

You've got your finger in a lot of pies!



#11
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Nice "Screw Zone" over the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills / Rapid City!

 

As My Father would say, "I would have it no other way!"

 

Lolz

 

The UKMET hates this area; just like all the other models...

 

'Tis part of the algorithm; I do believe.

 

The 0.8" LE isopleth is maybe 50 miles to my east...well into eastern sections of Pennington County, SD on the 12z ECMWF.

 

Sooo close!



#12
bud2380

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:43 AM

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Euro - head to North Dakota if you like snow.  

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   251.78KB   1 downloads



#13
NEJeremy

Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:47 AM

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#14
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 March 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Would sure be nice if you could trust the NAVGEM.  Absolutely perfect track for Nebraska for a big precip. producer.  But again, it is the NAVGEM.



#15
Tom

Posted 01 March 2018 - 01:05 PM

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12z Euro also suggests the month's 1st Blizzard across the Dakotas...EPS is north, GEFS are farther south...let the battle begin...

 

 

DXOStTuVoAAhUFC.jpg



#16
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 01:14 PM

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12z Euro also suggest the month's 1st Blizzard across the Dakotas...EPS is north, GEFS are farther south...let the battle begin...

 

Both the 12z control run and operational ECMWF have about 0.4 LE here over 48 hours....which would not be terrible.

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO was able to somehow accumulate 11 inches of snow on 0.45 LE two weeks ago (about 24:1); so it doesn't take a lot.



#17
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 March 2018 - 04:04 PM

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:)

 

pPnV1mK.jpg


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#18
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 March 2018 - 05:37 PM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED: 2:58 PM MAR. 1, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...A Strong Spring Storm System will Impact the Region Sunday and
Monday...

A complex and potent low pressure system will evolve over the
central Plains Sunday and Monday. A cold front will sweep through
the region Sunday evening...possibly triggering the first
thunderstorms of the season during the late afternoon and evening.
As colder air rushes in behind the front...there is some limited
potential for snow Sunday night. Very high winds will then develop
Monday behind the system. Some areas could see sustained winds
near 40 mph at times...with gusts of at least 60 mph. The
thunderstorms and snow may affect only portions of the area...but
the high winds will affect the entire area. Winds that high can
produce damage...including blowing down trees and power lines.

Everyone should closely monitor future forecasts and be prepared
for variable and potentially hazardous weather Sunday and Monday.
For the latest forecast information...visit weather.gov/hastings
or listen to NOAA Weather Radio.

#19
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:11 PM

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Look at the 0z NAM...it always gives the Spearfish the snow; but not here.

 

The NAM hates this place; and I hate the NAM back.

 

One day, I will pay the NAM back for all the unfavorable outcomes it has forecast for Me.



#20
Money

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:13 PM

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Look at the 0z NAM...it always gives the Spearfish the snow; but not here.

The NAM hates this place; and I hate the NAM back.

One day, I will pay the NAM back for all the unfavorable outcomes it has forecast for Me.


Well considering the nam is always wrong you don’t want to be in its sweet spot

#21
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:16 PM

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Well considering the nam is always wrong you don’t want to be in its sweet spot

 

There is Truth there; but it still seems that the NAM ENJOYS visiting indignities, iniquities and inequities upon Me.

 

There is an inherent smugness to its print-outs.

 

Look at how emotionally upset a single run has made Me!

 

I cannot suffer any more disappointments; for they have accrued more than the sands at the beach; or the stars in the heavens.

 

Why does everything bad always happen to Me?



#22
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:36 PM

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There is Truth there; but it still seems that the NAM ENJOYS visiting indignities, iniquities and inequities upon Me.

 

There is an inherent smugness to its print-outs.

 

Look at how emotionally upset a single run has made Me!

 

I cannot suffer any more disappointments; for they have accrued more than the sands at the beach; or the stars in the heavens.

 

Why does everything bad always happen to Me?

 

The forecasters always say things like, "60 inches for the Spearfish; risk of a flurry where I'm at".

 

They always get the luck when they need it.

 

I've had enough.



#23
Money

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Keep your head up and it will snow! Have faith in Mother Nature for she has never been wrong

#24
Tabitha

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:41 PM

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Keep your head up and it will snow! Have faith in Mother Nature for she has never been wrong

 

Thank you Mr. Money.

 

You always speak kindly to Me.



#25
Money

Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:43 PM

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You are very welcome. I hope you get tons of snow
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#26
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 March 2018 - 08:01 PM

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GFS more northwest tonight, if trends continue Tabitha will be the only one on this forum that gets any good snow out of this. More so looking forward to possible thunderstorms


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#27
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 01 March 2018 - 09:10 PM

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GFS more northwest tonight, if trends continue Tabitha will be the only one on this forum that gets any good snow out of this. More so looking forward to possible thunderstorms

Did you honestly think you had a chance at anything other than wrap around?


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#28
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 05:53 AM

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Tabitha is definitely in the best spot in this forum to see a good snow. No idea what to expect here. Looks like a combo platter of rain, snow, and possibly freezing rain if we get close enough to the dry slot. Might have some flooding issues if the majority of precip is rain.
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#29
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:05 AM

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OAX completely scrubbed any snow chance for here. At least we may get thunderstorms! Nothing says Spring more than that.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#30
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Northern TC metro over to St Cloud and points north might get walloped. Fascinating storm coming together.

#31
Tom

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:35 AM

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Northern TC metro over to St Cloud and points north might get walloped. Fascinating storm coming together.

Its always fascinating watching the models handle bowling ball systems.  Should be an interesting Spring storm that's for sure.


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#32
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.



#33
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:06 AM

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.

 

As I have written previously; the ONLY thing you can rely on around here when a storm approaches is CLIMATOLOGY.

 

I am not in the best snow area; but I am likewise a good deal snowier than the plains of SD off to the east.

 

I'm pretty sure that will find a way into the equation; before all is said and done.

 

First rule of forecasting; you cannot fight climatology; be it good...or bad.


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#34
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:30 AM

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First rule of forecasting; you cannot fight climatology; be it good...or bad.

 

Then you factor in that March & April are the snow months around here; and that is no small consideration when climatology is the issue.

 

I have seen it time and again; in diverse locations.



#35
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:48 AM

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

 

 

Actually; there is some dissent; the NAVY / NOGAPS is very snowy here; right into Tuesday...I wrote a post about 3 months ago commenting on how that model actually has been pretty good around here a few times.

 

I'll see if I can ferret it out...

 

Yes, here it is:

 

 

NOCRAPS NOGAPS now has the quoted system in here a bit slower...not until very late Friday; but a nice short wave / overrunning event as a clipper rides the front setting up east of the mountains...with about 30 straight hours of snow; some of it moderate.

 

The Navy model & UKMET have done very well here so far this winter; far better than their more storied & celebrated counterparts.

 

The late December storm in question with the "30 hours of snow"...only amounted to 2.5 inches of actual snow here...so so much for that...lol.



#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:00 AM

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Its always fascinating watching the models handle bowling ball systems. Should be an interesting Spring storm that's for sure.


It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.
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#37
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:08 AM

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It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.

 

Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.



#38
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:16 AM

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Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.

 

Now from this...per what little I know on the subject....is that a reflection at higher levels of general low pressure develops over the Eastern Sections of Canada; and yes; a sort of bowling alley of storms circulates around the bottom of the Large Upper Low.

 

This blocking action over Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes; very much the antithesis of the quick westerly & zonal flow that we saw in January; allows for storms to both slow and strengthen...gathering Gulf Moisture; and therefore yield far greater amounts of snow & rain.



#39
NEJeremy

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:23 AM

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It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.

Yeah in a way I'd say this is more like a knuckle ball than a bowling ball :P  :D


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#40
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:31 AM

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.

 

12z EC just short of a complete miss here with about 0.15 LE.

 

Bad for most of SD; actually.

 

Looks great for Minot & Saskatchewan; though!



#41
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:49 AM

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12z EC just short of a complete miss here with about 0.15 LE.

 

Bad for most of SD; actually.

 

Looks great for Minot & Saskatchewan; though!

 

Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...



#42
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...

 

Saskatoon with a March average of 0.57" of precip.

 

Regina with a March average of 0.78" of precip.



#43
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 11:04 AM

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Saskatoon with a March average of 0.57" of precip.

 

Regina with a March average of  0.78" of precip.

 

Actually the three month Regina average (Dec - Feb) is 1.6"; which is what I would have expected. 

 

The article I cited confused me.

 

Re-edit again:  The chart has a rainfall for the month; and then a SEPARATE precip for the month.  Very confusing.



#44
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.


I believe the NAO tanked to a new low. Literally off the charts. Not terribly surprising that it’s causing ripple effects over this way.

#45
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 11:47 AM

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12z Euro. March is the 3rd snowiest month here so let’s keep it going I guess.

Attached Files



#46
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 11:58 AM

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12z Euro. March is the 3rd snowiest month here so let’s keep it going I guess.

 

Do you measure separately or do you just take the number the airport reports?

 

It says that Chanhassen is at 41.5"; which I guess is the primary First Order Station for the CWA.

 

If the former; are you about where they are at; snow-wise?



#47
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...

 

Control run looked about the same; about 15/100ths of a inch.

 

Doesn't even bring any snow into the area until Monday; and as the saying goes, by then it will be too late.

 

Might have the heavy snow further east and closer to the Manitoba / Saskatchewan border; but for my purposes; it is irrelevant.



#48
Money

Posted 02 March 2018 - 12:07 PM

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Why

#49
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Why

 

I agree.

 

Time to close the thread.

 

As My Father would say:

 

"It is all over; but the crying."



#50
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 12:52 PM

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Doesn't even bring any snow into the area until Monday; and as the saying goes, by then it will be too late.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=VkKxmnrRVHo