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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball


Tom

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The active pattern continues to roll in the first full week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

12z ICON...

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_55.png

 

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_35.png

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The active pattern continues to roll into the first week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

12z ICON...

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_55.png

 

 

12z GGEM...

 

 

gem_asnow_ncus_35.png

NWS Hastings really talked this up in their afternoon disco yesterday, then downplayed it this morning.  I wonder if some of this new model data may get them talking again.  These type of storms are tough to predict and forecast in that they don't always go the direction that we expect, west to east, southwest to northeast, etc.  Some actually can retrogade.  I am just hoping for some good moisture for our area out of this.

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The active pattern continues to roll in the first full week of March with another large scale system ejecting out of the Rockies and slowly bowling its way through the central CONUS.  This will be a widespread and far reaching storm that will likely initially bring a swath of accumulating snows into the Upper MW and parts of the Plains.  Once cold air wraps into the system, snow may mix in into the MW/GL's region.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

Tabitha has been discussing it for the last two weeks...lolz

 

 

I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

 

Someone once asked Me; "Did you ever have a conversation with yourself?"

 

I smartly replied,"Those are my favorite ones; as I am the only one who does what I tell them to do."

 

Lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

I'm sooo funny!

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I sure hope this tracks a little farther south, if for nothing else the beneficial rainfall that could occur.  Very fearful of the dreaded "dry slot".  NWS Hastings mentioned it this morning.  CMC is farther north and ICON and GFS are the furthest south.  Euro was north at 0Z.  Need to see what the 12Z shows.  

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UK looking a lot like the GFS with precip. 

 

attachicon.gifukmet_acc_precip_conus_144 (1).png

 

Nice "Screw Zone" over the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills / Rapid City!

 

As My Father would say, "I would have it no other way!"

 

Lolz

 

The UKMET hates this area; just like all the other models...

 

'Tis part of the algorithm; I do believe.

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Nice "Screw Zone" over the Eastern Slopes of the Black Hills / Rapid City!

 

As My Father would say, "I would have it no other way!"

 

Lolz

 

The UKMET hates this area; just like all the other models...

 

'Tis part of the algorithm; I do believe.

 

The 0.8" LE isopleth is maybe 50 miles to my east...well into eastern sections of Pennington County, SD on the 12z ECMWF.

 

Sooo close!

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12z Euro also suggest the month's 1st Blizzard across the Dakotas...EPS is north, GEFS are farther south...let the battle begin...

 

Both the 12z control run and operational ECMWF have about 0.4 LE here over 48 hours....which would not be terrible.

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO was able to somehow accumulate 11 inches of snow on 0.45 LE two weeks ago (about 24:1); so it doesn't take a lot.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

ISSUED: 2:58 PM MAR. 1, 2018 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...A Strong Spring Storm System will Impact the Region Sunday and

Monday...

 

A complex and potent low pressure system will evolve over the

central Plains Sunday and Monday. A cold front will sweep through

the region Sunday evening...possibly triggering the first

thunderstorms of the season during the late afternoon and evening.

As colder air rushes in behind the front...there is some limited

potential for snow Sunday night. Very high winds will then develop

Monday behind the system. Some areas could see sustained winds

near 40 mph at times...with gusts of at least 60 mph. The

thunderstorms and snow may affect only portions of the area...but

the high winds will affect the entire area. Winds that high can

produce damage...including blowing down trees and power lines.

 

Everyone should closely monitor future forecasts and be prepared

for variable and potentially hazardous weather Sunday and Monday.

For the latest forecast information...visit weather.gov/hastings

or listen to NOAA Weather Radio.

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Look at the 0z NAM...it always gives the Spearfish the snow; but not here.

 

The NAM hates this place; and I hate the NAM back.

 

One day, I will pay the NAM back for all the unfavorable outcomes it has forecast for Me.

Well considering the nam is always wrong you don’t want to be in its sweet spot

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Well considering the nam is always wrong you don’t want to be in its sweet spot

 

There is Truth there; but it still seems that the NAM ENJOYS visiting indignities, iniquities and inequities upon Me.

 

There is an inherent smugness to its print-outs.

 

Look at how emotionally upset a single run has made Me!

 

I cannot suffer any more disappointments; for they have accrued more than the sands at the beach; or the stars in the heavens.

 

Why does everything bad always happen to Me?

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There is Truth there; but it still seems that the NAM ENJOYS visiting indignities, iniquities and inequities upon Me.

 

There is an inherent smugness to its print-outs.

 

Look at how emotionally upset a single run has made Me!

 

I cannot suffer any more disappointments; for they have accrued more than the sands at the beach; or the stars in the heavens.

 

Why does everything bad always happen to Me?

 

The forecasters always say things like, "60 inches for the Spearfish; risk of a flurry where I'm at".

 

They always get the luck when they need it.

 

I've had enough.

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GFS more northwest tonight, if trends continue Tabitha will be the only one on this forum that gets any good snow out of this. More so looking forward to possible thunderstorms

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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GFS more northwest tonight, if trends continue Tabitha will be the only one on this forum that gets any good snow out of this. More so looking forward to possible thunderstorms

Did you honestly think you had a chance at anything other than wrap around?

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Northern TC metro over to St Cloud and points north might get walloped. Fascinating storm coming together.

Its always fascinating watching the models handle bowling ball systems.  Should be an interesting Spring storm that's for sure.

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.

 

As I have written previously; the ONLY thing you can rely on around here when a storm approaches is CLIMATOLOGY.

 

I am not in the best snow area; but I am likewise a good deal snowier than the plains of SD off to the east.

 

I'm pretty sure that will find a way into the equation; before all is said and done.

 

First rule of forecasting; you cannot fight climatology; be it good...or bad.

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First rule of forecasting; you cannot fight climatology; be it good...or bad.

 

Then you factor in that March & April are the snow months around here; and that is no small consideration when climatology is the issue.

 

I have seen it time and again; in diverse locations.

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

 

 

Actually; there is some dissent; the NAVY / NOGAPS is very snowy here; right into Tuesday...I wrote a post about 3 months ago commenting on how that model actually has been pretty good around here a few times.

 

I'll see if I can ferret it out...

 

Yes, here it is:

 

 

NOCRAPS NOGAPS now has the quoted system in here a bit slower...not until very late Friday; but a nice short wave / overrunning event as a clipper rides the front setting up east of the mountains...with about 30 straight hours of snow; some of it moderate.

 

The Navy model & UKMET have done very well here so far this winter; far better than their more storied & celebrated counterparts.

 

The late December storm in question with the "30 hours of snow"...only amounted to 2.5 inches of actual snow here...so so much for that...lol.

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Its always fascinating watching the models handle bowling ball systems. Should be an interesting Spring storm that's for sure.

It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.

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It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.

 

Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.

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Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.

 

Now from this...per what little I know on the subject....is that a reflection at higher levels of general low pressure develops over the Eastern Sections of Canada; and yes; a sort of bowling alley of storms circulates around the bottom of the Large Upper Low.

 

This blocking action over Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes; very much the antithesis of the quick westerly & zonal flow that we saw in January; allows for storms to both slow and strengthen...gathering Gulf Moisture; and therefore yield far greater amounts of snow & rain.

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It’s cool watching a low basically move from CO up to the MN/SD border, then essentially stop and begin moving southeast to IL. Thats not something you see everyday. But it’s causing model havoc that’s for sure. Forecast offices might be pulling their hair out by Sunday.

Yeah in a way I'd say this is more like a knuckle ball than a bowling ball :P  :D

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Absolute consensus on the 12z suite thus far {NAM, Canadian, GFS, ICON} that EVERYWHERE...to my north, south, east & west...will do far, far, better than here.

 

Never have I seen such model uniformity!

 

On the good side; the models have not been bad this year in these Hills; they have been unbelievably awful; even while snow events were in progress.

 

Also, it is still 60 hours out.

 

The ECMWF comes out in an hour; that is the ONLY model that is able to decipher this area; (to some extent).

 

We'll see what it shows.

 

12z EC just short of a complete miss here with about 0.15 LE.

 

Bad for most of SD; actually.

 

Looks great for Minot & Saskatchewan; though!

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