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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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12z EC just short of a complete miss here with about 0.15 LE.

 

Bad for most of SD; actually.

 

Looks great for Minot & Saskatchewan; though!

 

Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...

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gosaints
gosaints

Drove south of town to near preston, mn into the best DBZ's.  thunder and whiteout....

Tom
Tom

The 1st Blizzard of March is official!  Parts of SD and into extreme N NE are under Blizzard Warnings this morning.  SD is going to get walloped...wind gusts up to 60mph and up to 18" of snow is a win

St Paul Storm
St Paul Storm

Yeah that’s an understatement, Tom. Still have no idea what to expect even as this event begins.   Some large flakes beginning to fall here on the far east side of Mpls.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...

 

Saskatoon with a March average of 0.57" of precip.

 

Regina with a March average of 0.78" of precip.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Saskatoon with a March average of 0.57" of precip.

 

Regina with a March average of  0.78" of precip.

 

Actually the three month Regina average (Dec - Feb) is 1.6"; which is what I would have expected. 

 

The article I cited confused me.

 

Re-edit again:  The chart has a rainfall for the month; and then a SEPARATE precip for the month.  Very confusing.

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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

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Not 100% certain; but I do believe the block in the atmosphere that will cause the stall / retrograde is directly correlated to the Negative Stage of the North Atlantic Oscillation / (NAO); as it has been falling sharply since Feb 27.

I believe the NAO tanked to a new low. Literally off the charts. Not terribly surprising that it’s causing ripple effects over this way.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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12z Euro. March is the 3rd snowiest month here so let’s keep it going I guess.

 

Do you measure separately or do you just take the number the airport reports?

 

It says that Chanhassen is at 41.5"; which I guess is the primary First Order Station for the CWA.

 

If the former; are you about where they are at; snow-wise?

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Something doesn't look quite right there...it is not easy to get 2 inches LE in Saskatoon / Regina at the start of March.

 

The EC run might be displaced a little too far NW.

 

We'll see if the control run concurs...

 

Control run looked about the same; about 15/100ths of a inch.

 

Doesn't even bring any snow into the area until Monday; and as the saying goes, by then it will be too late.

 

Might have the heavy snow further east and closer to the Manitoba / Saskatchewan border; but for my purposes; it is irrelevant.

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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

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Do you measure separately or do you just take the number the airport reports?

 

It says that Chanhassen is at 41.5"; which I guess is the primary First Order Station for the CWA.

 

If the former; are you about where they are at; snow-wise?

Chanhassen isn’t all that close to me, so I try to keep my own measurements. I’ve done a terrible job this winter so I’ve relied on local observers as well. I’m around 46”.
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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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Chanhassen isn’t all that close to me, so I try to keep my own measurements. I’ve done a terrible job this winter so I’ve relied on local observers as well. I’m around 46”.

 

I've measured 32" of snow here.

 

I think Lead is the leading station in the area (as always) with 77.7".  For them; that's actually not too good.

 

Lead's annual mean is about 160"; and that's a lot to make up in maybe 75 days; at best.

 

Like I said; this is my first year here; but my general sense is this area averages about 35% (maybe 37.5%) of what Lead gets.

 

I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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I've measured 32" of snow here.

 

I think Lead is the leading station in the area (as always) with 77.7".  For them; that's actually not too good.

 

Lead's annual mean is about 160"; and that's a lot to make up in maybe 75 days; at best.

 

Like I said; this is my first year here; but my general sense is this area averages about 35% (maybe 37.5%) of what Lead gets.

 

I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...

 

There are, obviously, snowier areas than Lead...down towards Hannah & Cheyenne Crossing SW of Lead on Route 85...those areas are over 6000' and they are probably near 100 inches...but there are no co-ops there to verify this.

 

The northern part of the Black Hills is a good snow area; not so much the southern part.  Even Custer & Hill City...well-elevated...do not do anywhere near as well as the northern sections.

 

I have a friend who lives 20 miles south of Deadwood; @ 5280'...and I was amazed at how little snow has fallen at her house; as the three times I was in the area since December; I noticed minimal snow cover; indeed; far less than at my place.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...

 

0z ICON continues with that nice burst of rain Sunday night.

 

I do not think it has rained here since November.

 

It couldn't have picked a better time!

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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0z ICON continues with that nice burst of rain Sunday night.

 

I do not think it has rained here since November.

 

It couldn't have picked a better time!

 

In fairness; this is like the 9th time the ICON has been on its own with rain that never materialized; as there is something clearly amiss with that German engineering...

 

Edit: It is actually rain changing to snow; but whatever at this point.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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In fairness; this is like the 9th time the ICON has been on its own with rain that never materialized; as there is something clearly amiss with that German engineering...

 

Edit: It is actually rain changing to snow; but whatever at this point.

 

GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.

 

Canadian didn't look too bad through 60; not sure if it is rain or snow.

 

Yes; looked nice through 120; as it is the only model that understands that as wind is forced up higher terrain; precip is enhanced rather than diminished.

 

Has the heaviest snow right on the eastern border of Pennington County.  Too bad it is such a long county.  At least it is getting closer.

 

It stretches from the 102 W to 104 W....138 miles from west to east.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.

 

The 0z GFS has a 991 mb / 29.26" Low...almost like a very weak hurricane...just east of Pierre at Hour 60 / 5 AM MST Monday morning...and yet it is dry here...even with NE winds being forced upslope.

 

Let me tell you something....that is very close to a mathematical impossibility...and I gravely doubt that if that is the track...the skies will be partly cloudy here.

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

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The 0z GFS has a 991 mb / 29.26" Low...almost like a very weak hurricane...just east of Pierre at Hour 60 / 5 AM MST Monday morning...and yet it is dry here...even with NE winds being forced upslope.

 

Let me tell you something....that is very close to a mathematical impossibility...and I gravely doubt that if that is the track...the skies will be partly cloudy here.

 

Actually; the GFS & Canadian are very similar; with the Low getting stuck in east / central SD at Hour 60. 

 

It is the NAM that is the outlier.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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06z NAM...prob an outlier but dumping some widespread late season snowfall...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030306/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

06z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030306/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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I've barely been paying attention to anything east of the Dakotas, but suddenly the models are getting bullish on snow farther east (not here in CR, of course).  The last three runs of the euro have drastically increased the snow over MN, WI, ne IA, and n IL.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

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I haven’t had a lot of time to track this thing so far, but this storm could get crazy. MPX currently going with up to 6” here but says if the snowier trends continue on the models the Twin Cities could get a heck of a lot more than that. Good to see basically all of the models showing more snow and less rain.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Reading forecast discussions I can tell offices are very nervous to jump on it.  Cant say I blame them

 

I haven’t had a lot of time to track this thing so far, but this storm could get crazy. MPX currently going with up to 6” here but says if the snowier trends continue on the models the Twin Cities could get a heck of a lot more than that. Good to see basically all of the models showing more snow and less rain.

Indeed, the blocking downstream is becoming more of a player.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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This system will certainly build up the snow pack over the Dakotas...if it does, this will keep the colder air lurking throughout the rest of this month...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201803/nsm_depth_2018030305_Upper_Midwest.jpg

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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With the discussion of “winter” returning here are some fun facts. Yes there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will see snow in March. In fact in Grand Rapids recorded history only in 6 years did March have less than 1” of snow fall they are 1. 1910 is the only year were no snow fell in March. 2. 1908 only 0.2” fell but the month started with 5” on the ground and there was snow on the ground until the 10th 3. 1945 only a trace fell. 4. In 2009 only 0.4” fell 4. 2000 0.6” fell in March but in April there was 7.8” that fell and there was 6” on the ground on April 8th that year.

In the last 30 years the average snow fall for March here at Grand Rapids is 7.5” and has ranged form 0.4” in 2009 (and that 0.6” in 2000) to 22.6” in 2002 (19.3” fell in1996) 36.0” is the current March record set in 1965. Note in the last 10 years the number of double digit March snow fall totals has fallen to only one March 10.1” in 2015. In the past March snow fall totals of over 10” were more common.

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