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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

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#51
Money

Posted 02 March 2018 - 12:58 PM

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http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

NAM
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#52
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 March 2018 - 01:37 PM

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Do you measure separately or do you just take the number the airport reports?

It says that Chanhassen is at 41.5"; which I guess is the primary First Order Station for the CWA.

If the former; are you about where they are at; snow-wise?

Chanhassen isn’t all that close to me, so I try to keep my own measurements. I’ve done a terrible job this winter so I’ve relied on local observers as well. I’m around 46”.
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#53
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 01:49 PM

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Chanhassen isn’t all that close to me, so I try to keep my own measurements. I’ve done a terrible job this winter so I’ve relied on local observers as well. I’m around 46”.

 

I've measured 32" of snow here.

 

I think Lead is the leading station in the area (as always) with 77.7".  For them; that's actually not too good.

 

Lead's annual mean is about 160"; and that's a lot to make up in maybe 75 days; at best.

 

Like I said; this is my first year here; but my general sense is this area averages about 35% (maybe 37.5%) of what Lead gets.

 

I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...


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#54
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 02 March 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Lol this storm has become a joke. Now precipitation is below a quarter inch. Holding out hope for some stray storms Sunday night.


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#55
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:01 PM

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I've measured 32" of snow here.

 

I think Lead is the leading station in the area (as always) with 77.7".  For them; that's actually not too good.

 

Lead's annual mean is about 160"; and that's a lot to make up in maybe 75 days; at best.

 

Like I said; this is my first year here; but my general sense is this area averages about 35% (maybe 37.5%) of what Lead gets.

 

I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...

 

There are, obviously, snowier areas than Lead...down towards Hannah & Cheyenne Crossing SW of Lead on Route 85...those areas are over 6000' and they are probably near 100 inches...but there are no co-ops there to verify this.

 

The northern part of the Black Hills is a good snow area; not so much the southern part.  Even Custer & Hill City...well-elevated...do not do anywhere near as well as the northern sections.

 

I have a friend who lives 20 miles south of Deadwood; @ 5280'...and I was amazed at how little snow has fallen at her house; as the three times I was in the area since December; I noticed minimal snow cover; indeed; far less than at my place.



#56
Money

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:05 PM

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18z gfs increasing snow totals in WI

8+ in some areas

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#57
gosaints

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:07 PM

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18z gfs increasing snow totals in WI

8+ in some areas



http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=us_mw&dpdt=


When changeover and column cooling occurs will be key. Like your chances better than mine

#58
Money

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:11 PM

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When changeover and column cooling occurs will be key. Like your chances better than mine


Green Bay AFD was talking about some serious rates once it switches over. Talked about a heavy band of precip along the front just in time for evening commute

#59
Tony

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:12 PM

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18z gfs increasing snow totals in WI

8+ in some areas

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Good luck to you guys north of Chicago. Mostly rain/snow showers down this way



#60
gosaints

Posted 02 March 2018 - 02:13 PM

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Green Bay AFD was talking about some serious rates once it switches over. Talked about a heavy band of precip along the front just in time for evening commute


Ya long ways to go on specifics

#61
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:05 PM

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12 KM 0z NAM basically dry through Hour 84 in western SD.

 

84 Hours is the length of the run.

 

Good storm.  They should make more just like it.


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#62
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:22 PM

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I was all excited with the precip maps on the 18z ICON; and its nice burst of snow Sunday night; and then I looked at the blank snow map and I was like "WT*?"

 

Then I noticed it brings rain in Sunday.

 

Stop the world; I want to get off...

 

0z ICON continues with that nice burst of rain Sunday night.

 

I do not think it has rained here since November.

 

It couldn't have picked a better time!



#63
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:25 PM

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0z ICON continues with that nice burst of rain Sunday night.

 

I do not think it has rained here since November.

 

It couldn't have picked a better time!

 

In fairness; this is like the 9th time the ICON has been on its own with rain that never materialized; as there is something clearly amiss with that German engineering...

 

Edit: It is actually rain changing to snow; but whatever at this point.



#64
snowstorm83

Posted 02 March 2018 - 07:45 PM

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Wish it would rain here at least. Like, something just happen please.


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#65
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:05 PM

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In fairness; this is like the 9th time the ICON has been on its own with rain that never materialized; as there is something clearly amiss with that German engineering...

 

Edit: It is actually rain changing to snow; but whatever at this point.

 

GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.



#66
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:16 PM

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GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.

 

Canadian didn't look too bad through 60; not sure if it is rain or snow.

 

Yes; looked nice through 120; as it is the only model that understands that as wind is forced up higher terrain; precip is enhanced rather than diminished.

 

Has the heaviest snow right on the eastern border of Pennington County.  Too bad it is such a long county.  At least it is getting closer.

 

It stretches from the 102 W to 104 W....138 miles from west to east.



#67
Money

Posted 02 March 2018 - 08:22 PM

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Gem crushes gosaints

https://www.tropical...18030300&fh=114

#68
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:09 PM

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GFS same as the others.

 

I find it quite odd; how areas out east on the SD plains...who all have lower annual snow averages than here....are constantly modeled to achieve these astonishing snow totals; while the models put close to nothing where I am at.

 

I don't just mean with this event.  I mean with EVERY event.

 

The zero where I am at usually verifies; so I have no problem with that.

 

But the astonishing numbers to my east NEVER verify; thus making the whole affair even more difficult to comprehend.

 

The 0z GFS has a 991 mb / 29.26" Low...almost like a very weak hurricane...just east of Pierre at Hour 60 / 5 AM MST Monday morning...and yet it is dry here...even with NE winds being forced upslope.

 

Let me tell you something....that is very close to a mathematical impossibility...and I gravely doubt that if that is the track...the skies will be partly cloudy here.



#69
Tabitha

Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:20 PM

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The 0z GFS has a 991 mb / 29.26" Low...almost like a very weak hurricane...just east of Pierre at Hour 60 / 5 AM MST Monday morning...and yet it is dry here...even with NE winds being forced upslope.

 

Let me tell you something....that is very close to a mathematical impossibility...and I gravely doubt that if that is the track...the skies will be partly cloudy here.

 

Actually; the GFS & Canadian are very similar; with the Low getting stuck in east / central SD at Hour 60. 

 

It is the NAM that is the outlier.



#70
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 04:06 AM

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06z NAM...prob an outlier but dumping some widespread late season snowfall...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#71
Hawkeye

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:41 AM

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I've barely been paying attention to anything east of the Dakotas, but suddenly the models are getting bullish on snow farther east (not here in CR, of course).  The last three runs of the euro have drastically increased the snow over MN, WI, ne IA, and n IL.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png   171.98KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_120.png   226.43KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#72
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:42 AM

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Latest RPM spitting out near 17" for Duluth, 6" for MSP, 5" MSN through Tue 08z....this is quite an interesting storm system...



#73
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:43 AM

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Latest RPM spitting out near 17" for Duluth, 6" for MSP, 5" MSN through Tue 08z....this is quite an interesting storm system...

Reading forecast discussions I can tell offices are very nervous to jump on it.  Cant say I blame them



#74
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:56 AM

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I haven’t had a lot of time to track this thing so far, but this storm could get crazy. MPX currently going with up to 6” here but says if the snowier trends continue on the models the Twin Cities could get a heck of a lot more than that. Good to see basically all of the models showing more snow and less rain.

#75
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 05:59 AM

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Reading forecast discussions I can tell offices are very nervous to jump on it.  Cant say I blame them

 

I haven’t had a lot of time to track this thing so far, but this storm could get crazy. MPX currently going with up to 6” here but says if the snowier trends continue on the models the Twin Cities could get a heck of a lot more than that. Good to see basically all of the models showing more snow and less rain.

Indeed, the blocking downstream is becoming more of a player.



#76
WBadgersW

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:52 AM

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Snow? Blasphemy!
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#77
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:01 AM

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12z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png



#78
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:03 AM

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This system will certainly build up the snow pack over the Dakotas...if it does, this will keep the colder air lurking throughout the rest of this month...

 

nsm_depth_2018030305_Upper_Midwest.jpg



#79
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:06 AM

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That’s a nice 7” stripe through mby on the NAM. Can’t go all in yet on this storm but things are trending nicely.

#80
westMJim

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:07 AM

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With the discussion of “winter” returning here are some fun facts. Yes there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will see snow in March. In fact in Grand Rapids recorded history only in 6 years did March have less than 1” of snow fall they are 1. 1910 is the only year were no snow fell in March. 2. 1908 only 0.2” fell but the month started with 5” on the ground and there was snow on the ground until the 10th 3. 1945 only a trace fell. 4. In 2009 only 0.4” fell 4. 2000 0.6” fell in March but in April there was 7.8” that fell and there was 6” on the ground on April 8th that year.

In the last 30 years the average snow fall for March here at Grand Rapids is 7.5” and has ranged form 0.4” in 2009 (and that 0.6” in 2000) to 22.6” in 2002 (19.3” fell in1996) 36.0” is the current March record set in 1965. Note in the last 10 years the number of double digit March snow fall totals has fallen to only one March 10.1” in 2015. In the past March snow fall totals of over 10” were more common.


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#81
Stacsh

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:28 AM

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With the discussion of “winter” returning here are some fun facts. Yes there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will see snow in March. In fact in Grand Rapids recorded history only in 6 years did March have less than 1” of snow fall they are 1. 1910 is the only year were no snow fell in March. 2. 1908 only 0.2” fell but the month started with 5” on the ground and there was snow on the ground until the 10th 3. 1945 only a trace fell. 4. In 2009 only 0.4” fell 4. 2000 0.6” fell in March but in April there was 7.8” that fell and there was 6” on the ground on April 8th that year.

In the last 30 years the average snow fall for March here at Grand Rapids is 7.5” and has ranged form 0.4” in 2009 (and that 0.6” in 2000) to 22.6” in 2002 (19.3” fell in1996) 36.0” is the current March record set in 1965. Note in the last 10 years the number of double digit March snow fall totals has fallen to only one March 10.1” in 2015. In the past March snow fall totals of over 10” were more common.

 

Curious what 2012 was like in March in Grand Rapids? I know it torched for most of the month.  Was the beginning snowy? 



#82
westMJim

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:51 AM

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Curious what 2012 was like in March in Grand Rapids? I know it torched for most of the month.  Was the beginning snowy? 

Grand Rapids recorded 0.3" of snow on the 1st a trace on the 2nd 2.0" on the 3rd a trace was reported on the 4th and 5th it warmed up to mid 60's on the 6th 7th and 8th turned colder on the 9th with 0.5" of snow reported. Turned warm on the 11th and stay warm until the 30th The low for the month was 19° on the 5th the warmest was 87° on the 21st 5 days were in the 80's 5 were in the 70's there was 2.8" of snow for the month at Grand Rapids



#83
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:53 AM

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12z GFS continues the trend of moving the heavy snow further south. E MN and W WI get hit pretty hard. Up to 9” here. Stormgeek in Anoka County north of me hit with 10-11”.

#84
Madtown

Posted 03 March 2018 - 07:59 AM

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Wow! Haven't looked at weather all week, looks pretty crazy!

#85
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:08 AM

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That Hudson Bay Block is def getting stronger and shifting the storm farther S/SW each run per the GFS....

 

 


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#86
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:09 AM

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Man, if this can track a little farther south, the LES plume showing up on the GFS is looking intriguing and reminds me of last year's LES snow event, but we would need a bit better set up.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15.png



#87
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:10 AM

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^ nice gif. Getting interesting for sure.

#88
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:11 AM

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With the increased blocking it keeps this area free from the dry slot as well.

#89
CentralNebWeather

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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Of course we are in the dry slot, so the forecast is incredibly strong winds, low humidity, and very high fire danger. Can it get much worse than that from NWS Hastings?

#90
Tabitha

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:33 AM

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Canadian didn't look too bad through 60; not sure if it is rain or snow.

 

Yes; looked nice through 120; as it is the only model that understands that as wind is forced up higher terrain; precip is enhanced rather than diminished.

 

Has the heaviest snow right on the eastern border of Pennington County.  Too bad it is such a long county.  At least it is getting closer.

 

It stretches from the 102 W to 104 W....138 miles from west to east.

 

12z Canadian continues to be the only model that does not hate this area...it was actually a fraction better than 0z.

 

I guess you could throw in the RGEM; but that is just the short range version of the Canadian.

 

The RGEM is a very good model (along with its mesoscale cousin, the HRDPS / GEM-LAM); but it is not in its good range until inside 24 hours.

 

Most others are dry...and not near misses; but 100 mile misses..at least. 

 

I did not think it could get worse than last night's ECMWF...until I saw the 12z NAM.

 

My March 3rd "blizzard prediction" from a couple of weeks ago for around here not looking too good.

 

The 9z SREF's plumes were pretty bad; though there were a couple of good hits...and it was a drop better than the 3z look.



#91
Stormgeek

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:39 AM

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12z GFS continues the trend of moving the heavy snow further south. E MN and W WI get hit pretty hard. Up to 9” here. Stormgeek in Anoka County north of me hit with 10-11”.

Ssshhhhh I am trying to lurk this thread. Been keeping an eye on trends. Hope things keep going the same way. 


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#92
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:45 AM

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12z GGEM also following suit and trending S/SW each run....


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#93
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:47 AM

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The TC metro is going to be riding the northern fringe at this pace. Wow.

#94
Tabitha

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:48 AM

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That is a hard series of images for my eyes to discern; as it moves too fast.



#95
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Gosaints also looking good. Gonna get some awesome snow rates on the eastern side of this deepening low.
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#96
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:53 AM

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Gosaints also looking good. Gonna get some awesome snow rates on the eastern side of this deepening low.


Crazy thump snows for sure...awesome storm to track and quite entertaining watching the models..haven’t tracked a cut off bowling ball like this in years!

#97
Tabitha

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:13 AM

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NAM isn't worth the paper its printed on; RGEM will prevail.



#98
Madtown

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:18 AM

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Wow 15in in Madison! Story of the year...ill believe it when it's on the ground!

#99
gimmesnow

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:21 AM

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12z GGEM also following suit and trending S/SW each run....

Wew, I was excited to see the extended was heading towards a 24 hour sub 28 degree snow blowing opportunity, but if we get 8 inches of wet, heavy snow, I'll be snowboarding until April. Hopefully this shares the wealth with those north of me, so we can build that snow pack back up and keep the could around.



#100
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Wew, I was excited to see the extended was heading towards a 24 hour sub 28 degree snow blowing opportunity, but if we get 8 inches of wet, heavy snow, I'll be snowboarding until April. Hopefully this shares the wealth with those north of me, so we can build that snow pack back up and keep the could around.


Building snow pack around our area is hard to do, easier near the US/Canadian border this time of year, but I do see several more chances of snow by months end. LRC keeps the colder pattern through at least Spring Equinox.