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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Wouldn't be surprised if SPC completely scrubbed the marginal risk for here. Looks like the Northern boundary for severe hail will be KS. We're just gonna get regular ol' thunderstorms.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#102
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:07 AM

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The 12z Euro is following suit and looks nearly identical compared to the 12z GFS...



#103
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:20 AM

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I neglected to renew my WxBell subscription so if anyone can post Euro maps, thanks in advance...

#104
Tabitha

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:25 AM

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POS Euro actually is shifting noticeably to the left / west at 12z; after that obscene and absurd 0z run.

 

It is probably too late to help me; but as my father would often say:

 

"Every little bit helps"



#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:28 AM

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I don’t have access to anything other than the free maps on weather.us but it looks like 1.4” qpf (snow) just east of St Cloud. I think MPX expands the watch with the afternoon package. Not sure if they’ll include the TC but it will be close.

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#106
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:34 AM

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I don’t have access to anything other than the free maps on weather.us but it looks like 1.4” qpf (snow) just east of St Cloud. I think MPX expands the watch with the afternoon package. Not sure if they’ll include the TC but it will be close.


Wow, your gonna get hit good buddy...what are some of the Top 5 snowiest March storms? Sheesh, you’ve had quite a ride since late Jan.

#107
gimmesnow

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:40 AM

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Building snow pack around our area is hard to do, easier near the US/Canadian border this time of year, but I do see several more chances of snow by months end. LRC keeps the colder pattern through at least Spring Equinox.

 

Snowhills keep snow very well. It's extremely dense and usually more like ice due to a lot of freeze and thaw. All the piles of snow from plowing here are gone, but there's still a foot or two on the ski hill from a peak of around 30 inches. If we got 8 inches of wet snow, they would groom it and beat it down and it'd stay much, much longer than anything else on the ground. Ski hill base around SE wisconsin this time of year is usually 3 to 6 inches of snow cone like snow on top of solid ice. It takes a lot for that ice to go away, and as it goes away, it gets soft and they can turn it back into that snow cone stuff.

 

Regardless, even if this storm doesn't play out, it's going to bring in cold behind it, cold enough to blow snow.

 

Five years ago, none of the resorts in SE wisconsin would put much effort into staying open past President's Day. Ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, Alpine Valley at least, has been super aggressive with trying to open early and close late.

 

As a midwestern snowboarder, this set up is one of the best things you can ask for in March, even if we don't get that snow, the cold will make up for it. Specially if it stays around. After March, I give up on the big storms and am just happy with cold. And it looks like it's coming after this, just like you've been saying.


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#108
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Snowhills keep snow very well. It's extremely dense and usually more like ice due to a lot of freeze and thaw. All the piles of snow from plowing here are gone, but there's still a foot or two on the ski hill from a peak of around 30 inches. If we got 8 inches of wet snow, they would groom it and beat it down and it'd stay much, much longer than anything else on the ground. Ski hill base around SE wisconsin this time of year is usually 3 to 6 inches of snow cone like snow on top of solid ice. It takes a lot for that ice to go away, and as it goes away, it gets soft and they can turn it back into that snow cone stuff.

 

Regardless, even if this storm doesn't play out, it's going to bring in cold behind it, cold enough to blow snow.

 

Five years ago, none of the resorts in SE wisconsin would put much effort into staying open past President's Day. Ever since Vail Resorts bought Wilmot, Alpine Valley at least, has been super aggressive with trying to open early and close late.

 

As a midwestern snowboarder, this set up is one of the best things you can ask for in March, even if we don't get that snow, the cold will make up for it. Specially if it stays around. After March, I give up on the big storms and am just happy with cold. And it looks like it's coming after this, just like you've been saying.

Very interesting to hear how things have changed ever since Vail resorts bought Wilmot.  I haven't skied there in years, since I first started to learn how to ski back in the mid 90's!  I usually either go to Chestnut Mtn or up in Wisco (Devil's head or Cascade).  The last time I skied was back in Feb 2014 during the Olympics period over in Chestnut.  Since then, I haven't been to interested, well, you know why...winters have been sub par since then but this year wasn't all that bad actually.  Did Cascade have their last weekend open this weekend or was it last weekend?



#109
gimmesnow

Posted 03 March 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Very interesting to hear how things have changed ever since Vail resorts bought Wilmot.  I haven't skied there in years, since I first started to learn how to ski back in the mid 90's!  I usually either go to Chestnut Mtn or up in Wisco (Devil's head or Cascade).  The last time I skied was back in Feb 2014 during the Olympics period over in Chestnut.  Since then, I haven't been to interested, well, you know why...winters have been sub par since then but this year wasn't all that bad actually.  Did Cascade have their last weekend open this weekend or was it last weekend?

 

Cascade is still 100% open from what I see. I mostly hang around AV. But things have gotten a lot more aggressive, even Granite Peak pushed to open up in October. They usually have really good deals this time of year, too. If we get this snow, and it stays in the 30s for a while, it'll actually be really nice.

 

A few years ago, AV would get icy in February and they wouldn't care and they'd just keep it icy. They've been blowing as soon as they can when it gets like that. I assume the other hills have been as well. Next weekend will probably be a pretty good time to go. The snow quality, at least at AV, has improved a lot since 2014. Though the last week was pretty rough, granted we did have those warm days. AV is my home hill, I'm sort of biased, but they've improved a lot. I've been a season pass holder since 2009 and I've abused it every single year.



#110
Tom

Posted 03 March 2018 - 11:29 AM

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Cascade is still 100% open from what I see. I mostly hang around AV. But things have gotten a lot more aggressive, even Granite Peak pushed to open up in October. They usually have really good deals this time of year, too. If we get this snow, and it stays in the 30s for a while, it'll actually be really nice.

 

A few years ago, AV would get icy in February and they wouldn't care and they'd just keep it icy. They've been blowing as soon as they can when it gets like that. I assume the other hills have been as well. Next weekend will probably be a pretty good time to go. The snow quality, at least at AV, has improved a lot since 2014. Though the last week was pretty rough, granted we did have those warm days. AV is my home hill, I'm sort of biased, but they've improved a lot. I've been a season pass holder since 2009 and I've abused it every single year.

That's great to hear the slopes have improved.  If you take the 12z Euro at face value, your dream will come true by the following weekend...it suggests 1.6-2.0 qpf worth of snow!  


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#111
Hawkeye

Posted 03 March 2018 - 11:37 AM

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The snow shouldn't be sinking much further sw, if at all, but the rest of my area looks good for a 0.50-1.00" soaking, with perhaps some thunder.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_108.png   169.1KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_108.png   218.92KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#112
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:19 PM

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Wow, your gonna get hit good buddy...what are some of the Top 5 snowiest March storms? Sheesh, you’ve had quite a ride since late Jan.


A quick scan of the Top 20 snowfalls on record at MSP show that 6 of them occurred in March. The biggest was 16.7” which happened in both 1940 and 1985. Next in line was 16”, 14.7” and 14”. We won’t hit any of those for sure but the potential is there to get a nice hit.
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#113
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:35 PM

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18z NAM going even bigger. 10” line a few miles away and that’s only thru hour 57.

#114
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Weenie Nam is at it...

#115
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:53 PM

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Oddly it’s really not that far off from the other models right now. We’ll see what happens. I still don’t trust it.

#116
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:54 PM

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Models haven't gotten drier so far as we get closer. That would be a change

#117
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:57 PM

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MPX expanded the watch to cover the metro. Going with 5-8” for now with localized 10”.

#118
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 12:59 PM

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MPX expanded the watch to cover the metro. Going with 5-8” for now with localized 10”.

LA crosse still not buying the west shift so far today watch only in far NE counties..

#119
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 01:55 PM

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I think it end up 7:1 concrete.

#120
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 03 March 2018 - 02:11 PM

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Enjoying this 68 degrees right now!


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#121
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Thunderstorms in the forecast tomorrow, followed by a winter storm. Gotta love March in the Midwest
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#122
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:36 PM

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0z NAM nuclear run. MPX wisely said in their afternoon disco that they’re tossing that garbage. Will be interesting to see how this turns out.

#123
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:45 PM

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Nam drunk.. 3km not nearly as drunk

#124
Madtown

Posted 03 March 2018 - 06:51 PM

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What's the latest for this area...mkx seems to think it will snow but not accumulate too much

#125
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:00 PM

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0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.

Attached Files



#126
Stormgeek

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:03 PM

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0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.

Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rolls



#127
gosaints

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Interesting... Let's see how the Euro rolls


You seem to be in a great spot...

#128
Hawkeye

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:15 PM

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00z 3k nam has 0.30-0.50" precip in the form of snow here.  I'm going to take the under on that.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:23 PM

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GEM going ham too. This is entertaining.

Attached Files



#130
Money

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:24 PM

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0z GFS going deep. NAM-like totals.


10:1 ratios are way too high in this

#131
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:30 PM

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10:1 ratios are way too high in this


Yup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point.

#132
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 March 2018 - 08:33 PM

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Pivotal finally updated. Here’s the Kuchera guess.

Attached Files



#133
Money

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:01 PM

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Yup. 4-6” looks like a good bet at this point.


Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc

Temps look to be around freezing for this

#134
Stormgeek

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:14 PM

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One thing is a given in this. Whatever falls is going to be absolute concrete. Moving it is going to be a pain.



#135
snowstorm83

Posted 03 March 2018 - 09:53 PM

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Good luck to Minnesotans with this thing. Maybe we get a few flakes over her in CornLand. 



#136
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:15 PM

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For stats sake, I'd love to get a tenth of an inch from this so at least we're guaranteed to have a last snowfall in March at the earliest.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#137
Hawkeye

Posted 03 March 2018 - 10:45 PM

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Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_84.png   163.66KB   0 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_96.png   224.95KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#138
Tom

Posted 04 March 2018 - 03:53 AM

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The 1st Blizzard of March is official!  Parts of SD and into extreme N NE are under Blizzard Warnings this morning.  SD is going to get walloped...wind gusts up to 60mph and up to 18" of snow is a winner in my book...

 

 

snow72.png

 

 

 

 

 

Meantime, the north side of MSP is locked for another beauty...

 

Tab2FileL.png?3e2981ce64e9bad7c024216b02


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#139
gosaints

Posted 04 March 2018 - 05:39 AM

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Yeah on top of bad ratios you have to factor in marginal temps warm surface areas etc

Temps look to be around freezing for this


LA crosse going 6-8 where the best band sets up.

#140
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:35 AM

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MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower.

#141
Madtown

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:37 AM

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4in here according to nws

#142
Tom

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:41 AM

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MPX ups totals to 7-9” with over a foot very possible. Increased qpf and a westward shift with the heavy band are reasons for the increased totals. Currently under a heavy rain shower.


How much snow do you have OTG?

#143
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:45 AM

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How much snow do you have OTG?


We made it up to the mid 40s yesterday and that did some damage. I have 4-5” OTG. The official depth at the airport is 5”.

MPX also talking gusts to 40mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are power outages with the heavy concrete snow. This should be pretty wild, regardless of how much snow actually accumulates.
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#144
LNK_Weather

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:47 AM

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Yesterday's SPC outlook for today.

 

Attached File  day2otlk_20180303_0700_prt.gif   26.01KB   0 downloads

 

Today's SPC outlook for today.

 

Attached File  day1otlk_1300.gif   25.61KB   0 downloads


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#145
bud2380

Posted 04 March 2018 - 06:53 AM

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The 3k NAM seems to have a better handle on this than the regular NAM. In Iowa rain looks to change over to snow between 12-3pm tomorrow. That’s bad news for accumulation as this time of year especially you want that changeover happening at night. I think timing alone will limit accums in Iowa. If it were 3 hours slower then the Mississippi River corridor from DBQ on north would be in a better spot.

#146
gosaints

Posted 04 March 2018 - 07:47 AM

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Rgem blasts the metro...

#147
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 March 2018 - 07:47 AM

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Heavy pinger storm at the moment. Accumulating on the driveway. No mention of frozen precip today so there’s that.

#148
Money

Posted 04 March 2018 - 07:49 AM

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Rgem with 15-16 for msp

Gfs with 6-8

http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#149
gosaints

Posted 04 March 2018 - 07:50 AM

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Rgem with 15-16 for msp

Gfs with 6-8

I
http://www.pivotalwe...4&r=us_mw&dpdt=


I would ride somewhere in between there.

#150
WBadgersW

Posted 04 March 2018 - 07:59 AM

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Its looking like a 3-6" event here. Lehs will be a wild card, although it doesn't look very impressive.