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March 3th-7th Bowling Ball


Tom

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I will say it’s possible that the temps are too warm on the gfs. NAM/RGEM are in the 28-30 range during the heaviest rates. If there temp is more accurate than I could see higher totals playing out but I really don’t trust the NAM. It also looks like both RGEM and NAM are already too cold with its temps and gfs is dead on so far

Where temps wet bulb to will be key. Today's temp won't matter. Temp at onset will..

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Extended is still calling for 2 to 6 for me. I sure hope I didn't screw myself with Murphy's Law. I just got a new snowboard, it was on sale cheap, and the last one they had in my size. I feel like getting a good snow after buying a new board is really, really pressing my luck, specially in March. Last time I bought new bindings we had that awful rain in February and they almost called the season off really short. It sucked, I was like "YES NEW BINDINGS THEY'RE AWESOME!" and then rain and "we might have to close the hill almost as early as we ever have!"

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12z euro is even farther sw with snow in Iowa.  So far, DVN has not been on board the snow train for their northern area around Dubuque, even though the euro has been bullish for several runs.  It'll be interesting to see what they say today.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_66.png

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_84.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro pound town at msp. 1.2 qpf as snow it looks like?

Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet.

 

Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight.

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Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet.

 

Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight.

We can both get in on this impending concrete storm! Also running 6 degrees below forecasted highs so far today. Interesting to see if this has any downstream impacts on temperatures (assuming they don't spike this afternoon)

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Yup. The bullseye moved right over the metro. MPX gonna upgrade here in the next hour or two I bet.

 

Fwiw today’s forecasted high is 45. We’re only at 38 now. Temp has actually gone down a few tenths in the last hour. Will be interesting to see if temps rebound with the southerly winds overnight.

12z GFS had you at 35 at this time

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The last storm on the east coast hrrr euro etc all had 12+ around NYC area and had temps around 30-32 and the storm happened during the day and they barely got anything. I just don’t buy into the big totals this time of the year

 

Maybe 10+ does fall but some will probably melt before the event is even over

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7+ is no problem... No way?? There is a way. I have had 12 inches on may 9th the day before was in the mid fifties.

I guess we’ll see

 

What were temps during that storm? How heavy were the rates? Did it fall at night or in the middle of the day? All of that matters when it gets this late in the season

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18z NAM Kuchera

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

12.1 for MSP

7 for gosaints area

5.2 for here

 

Snowdepth

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snod&rh=2018030418&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

6.0 for msp

4-5 for gosaints

3 for here

 

Much more realistic totals

I bet you a nickel right or wrong 0z Nam comes back wetter in all areas.

 

And Lol at using snow depth. Measure every 6 hours you won't get that much compaction.

 

Would you toss the Euro is the storm was pounding fond?

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I guess we’ll see

 

What were temps during that storm? How heavy were the rates? Did it fall at night or in the middle of the day? All of that matters when it gets this late in the season

Started as rain early in the morning quick switch mid morning. Snowed all day we hovered between 32-33.5 during the day. Solid rate wet bulbed us and that was it...

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WWA's issued for Wisco:

 

 

 

Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

...Wintry Weather Returns Monday into Tuesday...

.A band of intense snow is expected to push across the area from
southwest to northeast Monday into Monday night. A quick two to
four inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, is expected.
Behind the band of snow, a period of freezing drizzle will be
possible late Monday evening into Monday night, before snow
returns to the area Tuesday morning.

In addition to the snowfall, easterly winds will gust in excess of
30 MPH at times, which will result in the blowing and drifting of
snow, as well as additional reductions in visibility.

Travel will likely be impacted Monday afternoon and evening, as
well as Tuesday morning.

WIZ046-047-057-058-064-065-070>072-050445-
/O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0013.180305T2100Z-180306T1800Z/
Marquette-Green Lake-Columbia-Dodge-Jefferson-Waukesha-Walworth-
Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro,
Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Portage, Columbus,
Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, Watertown,
Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin,
Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn,
Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
245 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...An initial mix of rain and snow will quickly change over
to all snow, which could be heavy at times. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts. In addition, light freezing drizzle Monday
evening and Monday night may result in up to a tenth of an inch
of ice accumulation.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to be heavy at times late
Monday afternoon and evening. In addition to the snow, gusty
east winds will result in blowing and drifting of snow, and
will contribute to considerable reductions in visibility.
 
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Bullish for your area considering you said the other day I had a better chance of getting more snow than you

The models have consistently pulled back West and the block has slowed it to a crawl.

 

This would only be the 987th time that I have been wrong before...

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