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March 10th-11th Surprise Storm?

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#1
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Models have been hinting at a weak disturbance this weekend for much of the week, but have been all over the place on placement and strength.  Last night's GFS returned the storm and this mornings NAM is now on board as well.  The 00z Euro started to move in this direction as well.  Let's see what we get the rest of today on the models.  The good news is most of the snow will fall at night, so that will increase our chances of accumulation.  

 

Here is the 12z 3k NAM.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#2
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 09 March 2018 - 08:22 AM

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As long as this thing doesn't snow on Chicago we're good. I fly out of O'Hare for Seattle Sunday morning.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#3
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Canadian is much weaker.  



#4
Hawkeye

Posted 09 March 2018 - 09:23 AM

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UK continues to shift northeast and a get bit stronger.

 

Attached File  ukmet_acc_precip_conus_60.png   233.4KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#5
Money

Posted 09 March 2018 - 09:37 AM

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DAB for eastern Iowa

#6
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 10:13 AM

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Euro still further south.  Misses most of Iowa.  Gotta love total model disagreement 36 hours out from an event.  It seems that has happened more times this year than I can recall in years past.  



#7
Hawkeye

Posted 09 March 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Euro still further south.  Misses most of Iowa.  Gotta love total model disagreement 36 hours out from an event.  It seems that has happened more times this year than I can recall in years past.  

 

It's a bit ne and a bit stronger vs last run, but not nearly enough.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_60.png   126.09KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#8
St Paul Storm

Posted 09 March 2018 - 12:30 PM

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18z NAM with a pretty decent shift NE with the snow.

#9
Money

Posted 09 March 2018 - 12:50 PM

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18z NAM with a pretty decent shift NE with the snow.


Gonna reel in another one?

#10
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 12:51 PM

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3k NAM

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#11
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 12:52 PM

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regular NAM.  I did 10:1 ratio, but kuchera is coming in lower than 10:1 so these are a little high.  But it's more fun to look at. 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png



#12
St Paul Storm

Posted 09 March 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Gonna reel in another one?


Nah. Won’t see a flake here.

#13
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 01:22 PM

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DMX graphic

 

Tab2FileL.png?f7c97f45b1f4e6f4f376823547



#14
Hawkeye

Posted 09 March 2018 - 01:44 PM

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DMX is talking this up, DVN is skeptical.  I think I'd go with the low end.  Each of the last two GFS runs has backed off a bit.  The 18z is weaker and doesn't even get snow into CR.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#15
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 01:56 PM

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18z GFS looks closer to the Euro with the heaviest snow in far SE Iowa but more into MO & IL.  



#16
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 02:29 PM

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i have a feeling the 00z runs will turn into duds for E Iowa.  It would be cool to see a few inches of snow, but i certainly am not going to lose any sleep over it if we don't.  


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#17
james1976

Posted 09 March 2018 - 03:16 PM

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Yeah......maybe advisory criteria for a few counties. GFS backing off on the potential warning criteria.



#18
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 06:37 PM

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I wonder how fast DMX will pull down that graphic. Nam is totally different this run
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#19
Hawkeye

Posted 09 March 2018 - 06:58 PM

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I wonder how fast DMX will pull down that graphic. Nam is totally different this run

 

Yep.  It's looking like this may have been a mirage.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#20
bud2380

Posted 09 March 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Gfs following suit. Turning into a non event for much of the area.

#21
james1976

Posted 09 March 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Yup....bring on spring. No reason for it to be cold now if we're not getting snow.
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#22
bud2380

Posted 11 March 2018 - 07:39 AM

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4.5” reported in Centerville IA this morning. My aunt and uncle live near there. Snow just wasn’t moving on radar for quite awhile
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